How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Billy Ringo]

The NBA on TNT just did a long gut wrenching piece with follow-up commentary on the War in Ukraine.  (For the non-Americans, it is a very popular NBA pre-game show featuring Charles Barkley, Shaquille O'Neill, etc.  Large audience that probably doesn't spend much time reading up on this war.)   It featured one of O'Neill's former teammates who is Ukrainian and joined the fight.  At the end, they listed a fundraising site to donate.

This is the type of exposure that helps fuel American support for the Ukrainians.   To keep the war front and center in the minds of the American taxpayer--the voters.  It was a welcome site to see.  I'll post a link to the video if I can find it.

 

 

[The_Capt]

22 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

One small quibble w the TheCapt, and w the bigger narrative on UA vs RU right now.  I would change the end of the above sentence to say "though falling back, is NOW holding", not still holding.  RU just lost a gigantic swath of territory in the biggest victories and advances seen since after the first week or so of this war.  The loses in Kharkiv region were astonishing, including the region's #1 supply hub, Kupyansk.  In Kherson they just lost ~1/3 of the kessel.  U

Things have slowed down now due to a number of factors. Supply, weather, wear and tear, need for rest, RU falling back on interior lines, RU moving more forces onto the Svatove front (incl mobiks) -- all these factor into what's happening now w/o having to start thinking here's something wrong suddenly w UKR.  The success they just had was phenomenal but RU getting stronger on shorter, interior lines doesn't mean UKR tactics won't work again.

Did any of us really think UKR would've collapsed the entire RU army by now?  So there's nothing more wrong w UKR than there was a few weeks ago.  And there's nothing more right about RU army than there was a few weeks ago.  RU's supply situation has gotten worse, they've lost a ton of equipment, and they've completely lost arty superiority.  And they are about to donate a mountain more equipment to UKR when Kherson falls, unless they actually sabotage all their vehicles before they flee -- pretty doubtful given past performance.  

Potato…Asparagus.  No real disagreement but if the RA still holds Kherson by winter then they will have actually accomplished a likely operational (and strategic for that matter) objective.  Doesn’t signal the end of days, but could signal that the RA has more left in the tank than assumed.  The RA achieving a defensive objective - hold Kherson - equals strategic and political options, or at least sustaining the few they had left.  And that is not a good thing by any metric.

If we want to crawl out of an echo chamber we must note Russian successes.  We did so on the few acres back at Severodonetsk, as costly as they were.  We will have to note that they made it to their likely defensive objectives if they still hold the northern bank of the Dnipro when the snow flies. This will likely achieve the predicted aim of Putin to drag out the war past the US Congressional elections and shoot for that small ray of sunlight a shift in US politics and a deepening recession may provide for him.  Putin and Russia will have more options as of January if they can do that as opposed to them being at the Crimean border or cut in half at Melitopol. 

Now also keep in mind that the tipping point may be only a few days away and we will see the operational collapse we have been looking for well before then…here is hoping.

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

No real disagreement but if the RA still holds Kherson by winter then they will have actually accomplished a likely operational (and strategic for that matter) objective.

excellent point.  The other side of the coin is a stalingrad analogy.  Hitler was right that stalingrad kessel was tying up lots of soviet troops (ignoring the fact that only immediate withdrawal/breakout would've saved them).  So an operational victory buying some time but at the cost of losing the entire force in the kessel, which is what that kherson operational victory would mean, even if its defeat doesn't come for 3 or 4 months from now.  And like Hitler, Putler is also hoping for some miracle, somehow pulling rabbit out of a hat that actually has no rabbit.

[chuckdyke]

Looks all right on this video, but they lost a potential buyer with their improved version of the BTR. Nice to have a closer look at this IFV. It makes Kharkiv a key city as it was manufactured there. 

 

Edited October 21, 2022 by chuckdyke

[Simcoe]

4 hours ago, danfrodo said:

They are not Ukraine skeptics.  They are enablers of authoritarianism.  They love Putin, they love Orban.  Let's not play word games.  They don't care about spending, or war, they care about supporting dictators.

Careful buddy. I said this towards the beginning of the thread and got a temporary ban. The truth can get you in trouble around here.

[chris talpas]

As much as I rejoice in the battlefield success that Ukraine is having, I am dismayed at the success Russia has achieved in destroying Ukrainian power generation in the last 10 days or so.  40% I last saw.  There are the obvious references to the cold in terms of impact, but modern life disappears without electricity.  No running water, no refrigeration, no industry or commerce.  Communication infrastructure is rendered useless as well.

Edited October 21, 2022 by chris talpas
Addison also info

[danfrodo]

19 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

As much as I rejoice in the battlefield success that Ukraine is having, I am dismayed at the success Russia has achieved in destroying Ukrainian power generation in the last 10 days or so.  40% I last saw.  There are the obvious references to the cold in terms of impact, but modern life disappears without electricity.  No running water, no refrigeration, no industry or commerce.  Communication infrastructure is rendered useless as well.

I agree, it's been weighing quite a bit on my mind also.  Supposedly 2400 attack drones from Iran in RU inventory.  A very big concern.  Won't make UKR give up, but will dramatically increase suffering.  Might be a factor that drives UKR to the table earlier than they'd otherwise like, but I suspect only after at least getting back to Feb 2022 borders.

[danfrodo]

New video from my favorite young Russian lad.  He fled to Istanbul and is very glad to have escaped, especially considering what mobilization looks like now.  Basically kidnapping young men all over Moscow & Petersburg.  Allegedly the mobilization is over but he says they are still grabbing men.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

I don't work in defence, but I do live in a Procurement world, and this guy's analysis is dead on, though some here might find it wonky.

Edited October 21, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Simcoe said:

Careful buddy. I said this towards the beginning of the thread and got a temporary ban. The truth can get you in trouble around here.

Nah, it's just that things tend to derail quickly when this particular topic comes up.  Not for the good of the thread.

The point of bringing up domestic politics of whatever nation should be limited to how it impacts the war Ukraine is fighting.  The point raised is that the House Republicans, by their own words and past actions, intend to be disruptive and politicize the process of aiding Ukraine.  Valid for this discussion as is the counter argument that as disruptive and political as they may make it, there's little chance of the tap to Ukraine being turned off completely.  In fact, even if it is decreased dramatically it will probably continue to be more than all other nations combined.

After the elections, presumably with the Republicans controlling the House, we will see how it plays out.  Until then, I think all that's meaningful to be said about this has already been said.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Nah, it's just that things tend to derail quickly when this particular topic comes up.  Not for the good of the thread.

The point of bringing up domestic politics of whatever nation should be limited to how it impacts the war Ukraine is fighting.  The point raised is that the House Republicans, by their own words and past actions, intend to be disruptive and politicize the process of aiding Ukraine.  Valid for this discussion as is the counter argument that as disruptive and political as they may make it, there's little chance of the tap to Ukraine being turned off completely.  In fact, even if it is decreased dramatically it will probably continue to be more than all other nations combined.

After the elections, presumably with the Republicans controlling the House, we will see how it plays out.  Until then, I think all that's meaningful to be said about this has already been said.

Steve

"Who lost ______?" has been a terrifying putdown for Republicans ever since the days of Clare Booth Luce.

[dan/california]

Don't drive sleepy in Ukraine.

[sross112]

33 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Nah, it's just that things tend to derail quickly when this particular topic comes up.  Not for the good of the thread.

The point of bringing up domestic politics of whatever nation should be limited to how it impacts the war Ukraine is fighting.  The point raised is that the House Republicans, by their own words and past actions, intend to be disruptive and politicize the process of aiding Ukraine.  Valid for this discussion as is the counter argument that as disruptive and political as they may make it, there's little chance of the tap to Ukraine being turned off completely.  In fact, even if it is decreased dramatically it will probably continue to be more than all other nations combined.

After the elections, presumably with the Republicans controlling the House, we will see how it plays out.  Until then, I think all that's meaningful to be said about this has already been said.

Steve

I just find the catastrophizing hard to stomach.

"OMG the Republicans are going to take over the House and everyone will be forced to go to church, have babies, own a gun and get a job!!"

or

"OMG the Democrats are going to take over the House and everyone will be forced to burn their church, kill their babies, turn in their guns and lose their job!!"

So if we look at the numbers, a whopping 57 out of 438 representatives voted against the spending package for Ukraine. That only accounts for 13% of the ENTIRE house and 26% of the House Republicans. 150 House Republicans have voted steadfastly for Ukraine. The latest polls predict a shift of 13 seats to the Republicans. 13. Now I'm not a mathemagician but I fail to see how 3% of the House is going to persuade the other 84% to totally change their views and voting. Especially when it has been pointed out the the majority of the citizenry is in favor of supporting Ukraine. And if 74% of Republicans are already voting for support, at that ratio it just adds 10 in favor and 3 whole votes against. That puts future votes at about 378 to 60. 

So maybe, just maybe people can take a deep breath, self medicate with their chosen medicine, relax and wait to see if there is any effect at all to the support due to this massive political upheaval that we will all be so overwhelmed by.

Personally I think the biggest threat to future support for Ukraine will be how the economy goes. It is already going to be tougher and tougher in Europe with their energy crisis and looming industrial crisis stemming from it. If the US economy really tanks it will be hard for the elected officials (NO MATTER THEIR POLITICAL PARTY) to continue support at very high levels and neglect their constituencies. 

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Now I'm not a mathemagician but I fail to see how 3% of the House is going to persuade the other 84% to totally change their views and voting. Especially when it has been pointed out the the majority of the citizenry is in favor of supporting Ukraine.

Because it isn't about math, it's about who has the gavel and what that person is likely to do with it.  If McCarthy becomes the Speaker he has a lot of power that the other 97% don't have.  Since McCarthy has explicitly stated he's going to do things differently than the current speaker I think it's only appropriate to take the man at his word.

13 minutes ago, sross112 said:

So maybe, just maybe people can take a deep breath, self medicate with their chosen medicine, relax and wait to see if there is any effect at all to the support due to this massive political upheaval that we will all be so overwhelmed by.

Chilling out is fine, but it's not inappropriate to give people a head's up.  Especially those who do not follow or understand US politics.

13 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Personally I think the biggest threat to future support for Ukraine will be how the economy goes. It is already going to be tougher and tougher in Europe with their energy crisis and looming industrial crisis stemming from it. If the US economy really tanks it will be hard for the elected officials (NO MATTER THEIR POLITICAL PARTY) to continue support at very high levels and neglect their constituencies. 

Exactly.  Which is what many of the Republican caucus has already stated.

Steve

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The point raised is that the House Republicans, by their own words and past actions, intend to be disruptive and politicize the process of aiding Ukraine.

Some house republicans are doing this.  The vast majority have not done anything like this.  As I've stated before, I recognize and honor the vast majority of GOP congressman and senators for doing the right thing, every time, for Ukraine.  And hopefully they'll take their small number of dictator-loving friends out back and teach them about right & wrong.  

I am feeling optimistic that GOP & dems will continue to support Ukraine.  There's plenty of other places to play politics, I don't think they'll do it w UKR.

 

Edited October 21, 2022 by danfrodo
addition

[Calamine Waffles]

3 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Looks all right on this video, but they lost a potential buyer with their improved version of the BTR. Nice to have a closer look at this IFV. It makes Kharkiv a key city as it was manufactured there. 

 

Kharkiv is one of the main Ukrainian industrial cities, so it makes a lot more than just BTRs. Two of the biggest Ukrainian tank production and repair facilities are there (Malyshev Tank Factory and KhBTZ).

[Artkin]

3 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Looks all right on this video, but they lost a potential buyer with their improved version of the BTR. Nice to have a closer look at this IFV. It makes Kharkiv a key city as it was manufactured there. 

 

I hate this guys thumbnails so much that I will never watch one of his videos

[chuckdyke]

Just now, Artkin said:

I hate this guys thumbnails so much that I will never watch one of his videos

Fortunately we have the right to choose. If his presentation skills are challenging it may not be the reason to ignore it. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, chuckdyke said:

Fortunately we have the right to choose. If his presentation skills are challenging it may not be the reason to ignore it. 

Personally, I think this style of thumbnail should be treated as a warcrime.   Juvenile and attention seeking BS that makes me weep for Humanity.  When I see this type of thumbnail (which is WAY too often) I usually avoid it.  However, I do think the Task and Purpose guy is generally pretty good so I hold my nose and click on it anyway.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Personally, I think this style of thumbnail should be treated as a warcrime. 

???????? (6) Task & Purpose - YouTube If he contravenes YT guidelines he will be suspended. 

[Battlefront.com]

I've been giving the Russian defense of Kherson some more thought.

What we see there is a fairly competent fighting retreat carried out by the remains of Russia's "professional" prewar army concentrated into one spot. They were lavished with reinforcements and supplies, as well as priority for constructing fixed defenses.  They also started with relatively good positions and terrain favorable to the defender.  Command appears to be pretty solid and they've even managed to do at least two significant tactical withdrawals without getting their arses handed to them.  This despite the fact that Ukraine has committed significant forces to take back the area.  And Russia has done all of this with minimal supply capacity and HIMARS whacking supply dumps, HQs, and of course the bridges.

This recognition of Russia's ability to fight effectively is deserved, especially because I was one of the others who figured they would collapse after a period of heavy fighting.  I was wrong.  Their morale has held up despite the futility of their mission and the conditions under which they have been fighting.

Before you guys think I've suddenly grown soft on my criticism of Russian performance, have no fear!  I still think the Russians suck at war.  It's just in this case they suck less than they do elsewhere.

What we're seeing in Kherson is pretty much the best fighting Russia has managed in the war so far, yet they are still steadily losing ground.  In a war of choice against a smaller neighbor, losing less badly is not something to be particularly thrilled about from the Russian perspective.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

???????? (6) Task & Purpose - YouTube If he contravenes YT guidelines he will be suspended. 

You misunderstood.  YouTube has no guidelines against juvenile methods of self promotion, so he's fine in that regard.  I just virtually vomit a bit every time I see a thumbnail with the presenter/s image in some idiotic expression and pose.  Often being some slack jawed expression that I associate with someone who just saw his first naked lady. 

It is very difficult to not judge a book by its cover when the cover looks like it was made by a 6 year old.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is very difficult to not judge a book by its cover when the cover looks like it was made by a 6 year old.

It could be worse like a grinning Rottweiler; never mind I found some useful stuff on his channel. Kind regards.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

It could be worse like a grinning Rottweiler; never mind I found some useful stuff on his channel. Kind regards.

Again, I agree with you that he's got good a lot of good information and I think his presentation style strikes the right balance between entertainment and education.  But I still think his thumbnails are a sign of the end of times

Steve

[Sojourner]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

There's plenty of other places to play politics, I don't think they'll do it w UKR.

Sadly, it's already been tried. I seem to recall someone was impeached over it.

But on the bright side, when's the last time you've seen a politician keep a campaign promise?