How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Taranis]

5 minutes ago, kraze said:

Yes, this is the 5th time they are repulsing Ukrainian special forces trying to retake ZNPP. As usual no bodies or boats to show.

This is because the Ukrainian special forces are so special that they even manage to become invisible when they die. Must have something to do with US Biolabs. 

[panzermartin]

The ghosts of Zaporizhzhia. 

[kraze]

More like the boy who cried wolf eventually

[kevinkin]

8 hours ago, acrashb said:

Finland thinks a wall (mostly fencing) will help.  I wonder if they are anticipating a flood of refugees from a collapsing Russian Federation:

In baseball a line drive is often called a "frozen rope". The name might well apply here if built..

 

Edited October 19, 2022 by kevinkin

[Billy Ringo]

ISW report on Putin's internal situation, long but interesting read:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/putin-track-disappoint-multiple-competing-factions-russia

 

Putin’s attempt to double down on his goals in Ukraine despite the obvious risks suggests he may have tied his regime’s survival to a victory or semblance of victory in Ukraine—potentially at the expense of Russia’s long-term strength.

This doubling-down presents four key issues for Putin:

1. Putin has created a requirement to constantly provide “victories” to the extreme nationalists, but has limited ability to do so;
2. Putin is on a collision course with elements of his regime that may not want to wreck Russia’s remaining strength in pursuit of Putin’s objectives in Ukraine;
3. Putin is increasingly projecting weakness through repeated bad decisions; and
4. Putin’s limited value proposition to his base among the Russian population is diminishing.

 

[Beleg85]

Somebody found Strelkov. Geolocated to Rostov, despite claims he was in Donbas.

[sorry for rudeness, but he looks like he would just found a "street lady". Ukrainians are already joking about it.]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

The ghosts of Zaporizhzhia. 

Previous raid was planned by Boris Johnson himself. Brits don't quit so easily.

Edited October 19, 2022 by Beleg85

[kevinkin]

A sober - adult in the room - analysis for today:

https://www.justsecurity.org/83605/addressing-putins-nuclear-threat-thinking-like-the-cold-war-kgb-officer-that-he-was/

"But even the most confident predatory intelligence officer will always allow for an escape route. Intelligence officers are trained to prepare for the worst in realizing their inability to control every variable. And therein lies the opportunity for the West, but one which comes with tough choices. And that choice is not to blink, to not merely maintain the pressure against him on all fronts, but to increase it. Putin’s off ramp should not be some face-saving deal the West must choreograph that he will be perceive as weakness and therefore raise the stakes. Rather, increase the quality and quantity of arms, training, and intelligence support to Ukraine to reclaim their territory and exact an untenable cost for Putin’s campaign; engage with dissident, opposition circles within Russia and extend a lifeboat to opportunists within Putin’s inner circle and those fearful of going down with him; and fortify NATO along Russia’s borders, particularly the Baltic States. But do all this prepared to confront and respond to Putin’s use of weapons of mass destruction, should he choose that path."

Well there you have it. Assistance packages that include modern weapons might not be the complete panacea, but surely important. And they are easier to discuss since the cloak & dagger stuff largely goes unseen. 

[Beleg85]

Putin introduced Martial Law in occupied regions. Dirty move, as It will probably allow Russians to recruit local Ukainians. Bordering regions in Russia will also have severe limitations in movement and war economy (probably allowing state to take over properties it sees beneficial- it's a pitty Grigb is not here to provide us with details).

Interesting notes who was there during announcement below, but we should be careful drawing conclusions about power relations in Kremlin.

 

[Combatintman]

5 hours ago, Mattias said:

Interesting. Is there any information on what weapons are typically used by UA planes for downing drones/cruise missiles, and what tactics are used?

 

Mattias

The Saudis have been knocking these down for years over their border provinces with Yemen with AMRAAMs - so radar guided AAMs will do the trick .... just not cheaply.

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Wot Recon doing?

A good example of the limitations of drones for ISR.  Chaotic conditions + light infantry + thick forests = need for boots on the ground.  This is Russia's problem since the start of the war.  It just does not have the infantry it needs to conduct a military operation of this scale, even without the catastrophic losses.  This isn't just about incompetence and a lack of training of their soldiers, because even conscripts can be in a forest and find out where the enemy is and roughly how many are there.  They should have been there already as a defensive screen, even if they couldn't defeat the crossings themselves. 

But there wasn't the manpower to do that even if the local commanders were basically competent (which they do appear to have been), which would mean sending in recon units and that apparently didn't happen.

Steve

[akd]

The oh-so-sad story of the crew of the T-90M named “Gorky,” who all volunteered, received a month of training and were sent to Kupyansk to die:

https://www.nn.ru/text/gorod/2022/10/18/71742242/

Story would seem to indicate two possibly undocumented T-90M losses.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

A good example of the limitations of drones for ISR.  Chaotic conditions + light infantry + thick forests = need for boots on the ground.  This is Russia's problem since the start of the war.  It just does not have the infantry it needs to conduct a military operation of this scale, even without the catastrophic losses.  This isn't just about incompetence and a lack of training of their soldiers, because even conscripts can be in a forest and find out where the enemy is and roughly how many are there.  They should have been there already as a defensive screen, even if they couldn't defeat the crossings themselves. 

But there wasn't the manpower to do that even if the local commanders were basically competent (which they do appear to have been), which would mean sending in recon units and that apparently didn't happen.

Steve

I'm not sure it's a limitation intrinsic to drones, so much as the current implementations, and particularly the Russian implementations.  I think it falls under @The_Capt's scalability and communication parts of precision.  In a sense you can consider the conscripts on the ground as Russia's version of dumb drones with poor comms and integration - they can see what they can see, but they can't relay it anywhere and they aren't under any kind of consistent command and control for scouting particular areas and reporting back information to integrate.  They sometimes have scale (a bunch of conscripts) but they're missing the rest.

When things come together for Russia, they can use drones effectively for calling in and correcting arty to at least the precision and accuracy of their guns. The thing that's missing is their ability to do this at scale.  It's possible to do at scale if you have a lot of drones with good comms and integration. It's even arguable that a a system like that would let you see below the tree canopy as well as or better than boots on the ground - a compact drone with multispectral imaging can see over that next rise, or quietly cruise through the upper levels (or on the ground for a UGV) of a forested area to scout things out and relay information back better than a person whose eyes are 6 or 10' off the ground and limited to walking speed.  And you can make a lot of them cheap and not feel too bad when they're destroyed.

[Beleg85]

Just worth to add how they treat independent Ukrainian history- holodomor was entirely of Soviet making and Russians in 90's did not deny it.

 

Ok, there is almost total silence about what is happening in Kherson. Many Russian accounts are panicking, writing about how thousands of civilians are under direct threat of "Nazis", probably to prepare wider population for shock. There are narrations of 17th UA Tank Brig. and 128th Mountain Brigade (for some time main "badboys" in Russian narration, beyond of course Azov and nationalist battalions) attacking as spearhead from two directions in Davydyv Bridge and Chervony Yar areas, under dense umbrella of artillery and airforce. Difficult to tell if it is true, mind it is in Russian intrerest to maximally multiply Ukrainian forces now.

In Belgorod there is a sudden "breakdown" in electricity supply for some reason...

 

Edited October 19, 2022 by Beleg85

[Tenses]

Anyone knows or suspects what is actually happenning in Kherson? I don't like this "evacuate quickly" b******t from Russians. They are always silent when they are hit hard, there must be something in the making.

I fear the most some devil's work on Kahovka dam, which would be insane but this is what they are. The best scenario is that they don't want to lose potential mobilisation meat from the soon to be deocuppied western side of the river so they take it with them.

Edited October 19, 2022 by Tenses

[Haiduk]

9 hours ago, Mattias said:

Interesting. Is there any information on what weapons are typically used by UA planes for downing drones/cruise missiles, and what tactics are used?

 

Mattias

That pilot of MiG-29 told fighter jets enough good against Shakheds in night time, when them hard to spot visually and land radars can pass them, or detect too close to their target, because of they fly usually low. But radars of fighters can detect theese drones - their dimensions and geometry give enough clear signal on radars, he didn't say what type of missiles he used, but if he meant radar, maybe this R-27R/ER semi-active missiles. Also I read some reports, that our fighters use guns, when can detect drones visually in daylight/dawn. But I suppose guns is too dangerous due to high speed of jet and low speed of drone. 

UKR hasn't R-77 missiles, but I think R-27 can be used, though there are contraversal opinions about capabilities of IR homing to lock Shakhed, Orlan or similar drone 

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, Tenses said:

Anyone knows or suspects what is actually happenning in Kherson? I don't like this "evacuate quickly" b******t from Russians. They are always silent when they are hit hard, there must be something in the making.

I fear the most some devil's work on Kahovka dam, which would be insane but this is what they are. The best scenario is that they don't want to lose potential mobilisation meat from the soon to be deocuppied western side of the river so they take it with them.

Kakhovka dam destruction first of all will hit Russians on left bank - right bank is higher

No info from both sides, except foggy hints and RUMINT. From UKR side in that time VERY TOUGH OpSec

Edited October 19, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, akd said:

The oh-so-sad story of the crew of the T-90M named “Gorky,” who all volunteered, received a month of training and were sent to Kupyansk to die:

https://www.nn.ru/text/gorod/2022/10/18/71742242/

Story would seem to indicate two possibly undocumented T-90M losses.

Makes me snicker.  It appears Russia held back some of its best, or at least most modern, equipment from the war for many months.  Probably because they didn't want to lose it to a bunch of neanderthal Nazis in funny colored shirts.  So what happened?  Instead of having their best contract soldiers manning their best equipment, they wound up with guys grabbed off the street and giving YouTube type training for a couple of days and then pushed into the front.  Which leads to them either being blown up, stuck, or abandoned without achieving anything.

Great planning, Vlad.

Steve

[Ts4EVER]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Makes me snicker.  It appears Russia held back some of its best, or at least most modern, equipment from the war for many months.  Probably because they didn't want to lose it to a bunch of neanderthal Nazis in funny colored shirts.  So what happened?  Instead of having their best contract soldiers manning their best equipment, they wound up with guys grabbed off the street and giving YouTube type training for a couple of days and then pushed into the front.  Which leads to them either being blown up, stuck, or abandoned without achieving anything.

Great planning, Vlad.

Steve

Similar to the Nazis in WW2, the Volksgrenadier Divisions were re-equipped with StG44s, more seasoned divisions got them last.

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Makes me snicker.  It appears Russia held back some of its best, or at least most modern, equipment from the war for many months.  Probably because they didn't want to lose it to a bunch of neanderthal Nazis in funny colored shirts.  So what happened?  Instead of having their best contract soldiers manning their best equipment, they wound up with guys grabbed off the street and giving YouTube type training for a couple of days and then pushed into the front.  Which leads to them either being blown up, stuck, or abandoned without achieving anything.

Great planning, Vlad.

Steve

One of reasons about which Russians told - experienced crews will stuck to own old habits in handling with T-72 series and they will adopt more hardly to new tank, so will be best to teach fresh mobilized from zero on modern equipment

Edited October 19, 2022 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

Next we will get the bizarro-world orwellian newspeak where RU says taking Kherson is Ukraine invading Russia.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

I'm not sure it's a limitation intrinsic to drones, so much as the current implementations, and particularly the Russian implementations.  I think it falls under @The_Capt's scalability and communication parts of precision.  In a sense you can consider the conscripts on the ground as Russia's version of dumb drones with poor comms and integration - they can see what they can see, but they can't relay it anywhere and they aren't under any kind of consistent command and control for scouting particular areas and reporting back information to integrate.  They sometimes have scale (a bunch of conscripts) but they're missing the rest.

When things come together for Russia, they can use drones effectively for calling in and correcting arty to at least the precision and accuracy of their guns. The thing that's missing is their ability to do this at scale.  It's possible to do at scale if you have a lot of drones with good comms and integration. It's even arguable that a a system like that would let you see below the tree canopy as well as or better than boots on the ground - a compact drone with multispectral imaging can see over that next rise, or quietly cruise through the upper levels (or on the ground for a UGV) of a forested area to scout things out and relay information back better than a person whose eyes are 6 or 10' off the ground and limited to walking speed.  And you can make a lot of them cheap and not feel too bad when they're destroyed.

Oh, there's certainly a lot more layers to the Russian Failure Cake than what I just cited   My point, though, is that forests present additional challenges to the use of drones for recon.  At least as long as there are leaves on the trees or the forest is coniferous.  Drones are best used to recon specific spots where the enemy might be.  Treelines along fields, small villages, key road junctions, etc.  This allows the operator to know what general area to send the drone to and then narrows down where to search once there.  A large forested area doesn't allow for this.  Therefore, eyes on the ground are needed to provide information, either directly through contact or by narrowing down the areas for the drones to focus on.

What I suspect happened south of Lyman is that Russia had no "pickets" in the forest.  Ukraine infiltrated in small numbers at a time in different places and then spread out.  Although eventually alerted to the presence of Ukrainians there, the Russians lacked the capabilities to figure out where and how much.  Lots of reasons for that, as you mentioned, but the primary one is they didn't have their own infantry in contact with the Ukrainian forces in any meaningful way.  If they had, I think Ukraine would have had a harder time of it as Russia has demonstrated a decent ability to direct artillery onto targets when they know where to shoot.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

Similar to the Nazis in WW2, the Volksgrenadier Divisions were re-equipped with StG44s, more seasoned divisions got them last.

This is not really the same.  The concept of Volksgrenadier was quite different from the existing infantry formations, both in terms of organization and weaponry.  Germany was intent on building new formations (an error in the eyes of many military historians) and so it made sense they were built to the new standard.  However, Germany also converted existing divisions to the new form, but generally only for those that were trashed and needed rebuilding anyway.  Over time all were supposed to be converted, however the war ended before that could be achieved.

On the other hand, VG divisions often received crap artillery and under strength vehicular allotments because that was all that was left on hand.

Steve

[Calamine Waffles]

25 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

That pilot of MiG-29 told fighter jets enough good against Shakheds in night time, when them hard to spot visually and land radars can pass them, or detect too close to their target, because of they fly usually low. But radars of fighters can detect theese drones - their dimensions and geometry give enough clear signal on radars, he didn't say what type of missiles he used, but if he meant radar, maybe this R-27R/ER semi-active missiles. Also I read some reports, that our fighters use guns, when can detect drones visually in daylight/dawn. But I suppose guns is too dangerous due to high speed of jet and low speed of drone. 

UKR hasn't R-77 missiles, but I think R-27 can be used, though there are contraversal opinions about capabilities of IR homing to lock Shakhed, Orlan or similar drone 

It's also dangerous because of explosives on board the drone.

[Calamine Waffles]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

One of reasons about which Russians told - experienced crews will stuck to own old habits in handling with T-72 series and they will adopt more hardly to new tank, so will be best to teach fresh mobilized from zero on modern equipment

That doesn't make sense. The T-90 is a heavily modernised T-72.

[Harmon Rabb]

10 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Next we will get the bizarro-world orwellian newspeak where RU says taking Kherson is Ukraine invading Russia.

Can't wait for Putin's next "goodwill gesture" in Kherson.