How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

53 minutes ago, akd said:

A cruise missile can’t have a motorcycle engine!

Come to think of it the reverse is true, a motorcycle can have a rocket engine:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAh66m_Vd38

Oh but the devil is in the details. 

[OldSarge]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Look at CNN, maybe she will tell something in twitetr later

CNN finally posted the article online.

 

[MOS:96B2P]

56 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Congressional Republicans most likely will be. Factually speaking, they quite often vote against policies both the majority of Americans and of their own constituencies support.

You could try to be optimistic and happy about what @danfrodo and @Billy Ringo said above and stop trying to drag the topic back down into hateful US politics.   Give it a try.    

[kevinkin]

Over the weekend the media has been latching on to this angle:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/10/18/buzz-bombs---what-ukraine-can-learn-from-londons-drone-war-80-years-ago/?sh=5a2d13d77541

" no matter how many Spitfires and AA guns were deployed, not every flying bomb could be brought down. The threat was only ended by bombing the launch sites and by moving forward after D-Day and pushing German forces in France and Belgium back out of range."

[kevinkin]

Assistance to Ukraine is safe regardless of the mid-terms. No politician wants to be on the wrong side of this one. Sure some on both sides will issue a "protest" vote knowing whatever bill is up for vote is safe and sound in Ukraine's favor. Will Ukraine get exactly what they want or need? No. Will they get too much in some opinions? Yes. That's how sausage is made - very messy but tastes fine for almost all in the end.  

[FancyCat]

Kharkiv came as a big shock so makes sense they want to prep for the same in Kherson.

 

 

[FancyCat]

Question is, have Ukrainian forces advanced to within artillery range of the Dnipro? Everything has gone silent so no more movement info.

 

[NamEndedAllen]

18 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

You could try to be optimistic and happy about what @danfrodo and @Billy Ringo said above and stop trying to drag the topic back down into hateful US politics.   Give it a try.    

Don’t worry, be happy”

Honestly, I think you are missing the point. Which isn’t about cheerleading. Or about in looking at the future, necessarily predicting one outcome. My point all along is simply not to *assume* what you hope will happen, but to be aware that regardless in what country, the wonderful world of politics can and will surprise you. The topic is important because of the masssive support the USA provides Ukraine. And that Putin is quite aware of it. Period!
‘

 

[NamEndedAllen]

34 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Hopefully we won't need to pivot to China.  Hopefully US & China will make the smart decision and realize economy matters a lot more than some piece of land somewhere and to not kill the goose that lays golden eggs just for some nationalistic stupidity.

indeed. And then a huge amount of people, would be a lot happier!

 

[dan/california]

46 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Hopefully we won't need to pivot to China.  Hopefully US & China will make the smart decision and realize economy matters a lot more than some piece of land somewhere and to not kill the goose that lays golden eggs just for some nationalistic stupidity.

Nothing will convince the Chinese to chose wisely more than an absolute certainty that the only way they are setting foot on Taiwan is a new land bridge built out of sunken ships and dead bodies.

[asurob]

2 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

I will be shocked, absolutely shocked if a Republican led House and/or Senate cuts or reduces aid to Ukraine.   I keep seeing this discussed but from a grass roots perspective I don't see this as being even remotely popular among conservative voters.  Yes----"Biden is corrupt and evil" and conservatives will work hard to counter his agenda.  But I don't see Ukraine support as being on the chopping block--very strong bipartisan support.  

Hell, it's about the only thing most of both parties can agree on.

 

 

This.  Yes, the more extremes of the right certainly are crying about the billions going to Ukraine rather then their pet projects like the border security.  But it is the extreme and vocal right.  Despite the usual war between parties...both seem to agree (as do most Americans) Putin bad, Ukraine good.  More bullets for Ukraine now means not having to deal with Russia later.

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

I will be shocked, absolutely shocked if a Republican led House and/or Senate cuts or reduces aid to Ukraine.   I keep seeing this discussed but from a grass roots perspective I don't see this as being even remotely popular among conservative voters.  Yes----"Biden is corrupt and evil" and conservatives will work hard to counter his agenda.  But I don't see Ukraine support as being on the chopping block--very strong bipartisan support.  

Hell, it's about the only thing most of both parties can agree on.

 

 

Kevin McCarthy is the overwhelming favorite to be Speaker of the House if the GOP takes the chamber and he's overtly saying that's what they will do. 

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

the 40 billion dollar spending bill passed both the senate and house with overwhelming support in both parties.  While the no votes were concentrated in the GOP, most of the GOP backed it.  A change in majorities should not significantly alter that   There are folks who get a lot of publicity in their statements.  The more extreme the more publicity.  I wouldn't count on those folks making as much impact as their noise level might indicate.  On top of that the corporations set to make money off it will send their political donations to whomever ensures the tap is turned on.  The MAGA core's main impact is in the primaries, once folks are elected the money talks louder.

McCarthy isn't the fringe. He's the leader of the GOP in the House. Here's more reporting below: 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/18/house-republicans-ukraine-mccarthy/

[cesmonkey]

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1582260856426930176

The first images from the exploded gas pipe on the bottom of the Baltic Sea

Edited October 19, 2022 by cesmonkey

[Beleg85]

I wouldn't be surprised if this "hotline" would be immediatelly blocked by hundreds of Ukrainian pranksters calling.

[MSBoxer]

Regarding US politics.

Let's all just remember that what a politician says is not always what they do.

"Read my lips no new taxes"

"If you like your doctor, you can keep them"

This is particularly true during election season.

I am not posting this to start a debate/pissing match over which party said/says/lies most.  Just pointing out some examples from somewhat recent history.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if this "hotline" would be immediatelly blocked by hundreds of Ukrainian pranksters calling.

COLLAPSE!!!!!!   I love it!  But I don't want any of these murderer/kidnappers in kherson civil admin getting away.  I don't want more kidnapping.  How are buses still using the bridge????  Shut it down and make them surrender. 

And now we play the ongoing game of "how much disaster can Putin survive?".  It appears there's just no way to topple him, he's too surrounded by his loyal guards, I guess.  Doesn't anyone in power care more about Russia than they do about Putler?  

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Kevin McCarthy is the overwhelming favorite to be Speaker of the House if the GOP takes the chamber and he's overtly saying that's what they will do. 

Unfortunately, it's worse than that (as a DC guy you already know).

The Republicans in the House follow what is known as the Gingrich Doctrine (or Rule or similar).  The crux of this doctrine is that the Leader shall not bring forth any bill onto the floor for a vote which lacks enough Republican votes to pass without Democrats.  This was designed for a number of reasons, but the primary one (IMHO) was to ensure that the Democrats never got credit for anything that was passed. 

This has become strained more recently since the Republicans lack the numbers to vote yes on practically anything, even their own pet projects.  However, it still exists as a philosophy and was evident under Paul Ryan.

The applications of this in the new Republican controlled House (if it should happen, which it is likely to do) is never going to work.  I don't remember what the seats look like at the moment, but I think McCarthy can count on about 60% of his caucus having some major problems with funding Ukraine because they are isolationist, pro-Russian, anti-Biden, or purporting to be fiscal conservatives.  Quite a few check all of those boxes.

This is going to be an enormous problem for McCarthy even if he wasn't one of the people who is predisposed to restricting aid to Ukraine.  But by his own words, he is.

A Republican controlled House of Reps is going to make Ukraine a political football for domestic political reasons.  Again, this is not political partisan commentary.  This is reality.

Steve

[billbindc]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Unfortunately, it's worse than that (as a DC guy you already know).

The Republicans in the House follow what is known as the Gingrich Doctrine (or Rule or similar).  The crux of this doctrine is that the Leader shall not bring forth any bill onto the floor for a vote which lacks enough Republican votes to pass without Democrats.  This was designed for a number of reasons, but the primary one (IMHO) was to ensure that the Democrats never got credit for anything that was passed. 

This has become strained more recently since the Republicans lack the numbers to vote yes on practically anything, even their own pet projects.  However, it still exists as a philosophy and was evident under Paul Ryan.

The applications of this in the new Republican controlled House (if it should happen, which it is likely to do) is never going to work.  I don't remember what the seats look like at the moment, but I think McCarthy can count on about 60% of his caucus having some major problems with funding Ukraine because they are isolationist, pro-Russian, anti-Biden, or purporting to be fiscal conservatives.  Quite a few check all of those boxes.

This is going to be an enormous problem for McCarthy even if he wasn't one of the people who is predisposed to restricting aid to Ukraine.  But by his own words, he is.

A Republican controlled House of Reps is going to make Ukraine a political football for domestic political reasons.  Again, this is not political partisan commentary.  This is reality.

Steve

One possibility that's already being touted is that a bill will be pushed through between Election Day and the end of this Congressional session that will effectively cover Ukrainian needs through 2023. That's not ideal, as it will make it difficult to react to new developments but it would reduce the issue's salience at least in the first year. We'll see.

[Sojourner]

8 minutes ago, billbindc said:

One possibility that's already being touted is that a bill will be pushed through between Election Day and the end of this Congressional session that will effectively cover Ukrainian needs through 2023. That's not ideal, as it will make it difficult to react to new developments but it would reduce the issue's salience at least in the first year. We'll see.

Another is to declare Russia a terrorist state before the end of the current session. 

[danfrodo]

32 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Unfortunately, it's worse than that (as a DC guy you already know).

The Republicans in the House follow what is known as the Gingrich Doctrine (or Rule or similar).  The crux of this doctrine is that the Leader shall not bring forth any bill onto the floor for a vote which lacks enough Republican votes to pass without Democrats.  This was designed for a number of reasons, but the primary one (IMHO) was to ensure that the Democrats never got credit for anything that was passed. 

This has become strained more recently since the Republicans lack the numbers to vote yes on practically anything, even their own pet projects.  However, it still exists as a philosophy and was evident under Paul Ryan.

The applications of this in the new Republican controlled House (if it should happen, which it is likely to do) is never going to work.  I don't remember what the seats look like at the moment, but I think McCarthy can count on about 60% of his caucus having some major problems with funding Ukraine because they are isolationist, pro-Russian, anti-Biden, or purporting to be fiscal conservatives.  Quite a few check all of those boxes.

This is going to be an enormous problem for McCarthy even if he wasn't one of the people who is predisposed to restricting aid to Ukraine.  But by his own words, he is.

A Republican controlled House of Reps is going to make Ukraine a political football for domestic political reasons.  Again, this is not political partisan commentary.  This is reality.

Steve

Meanwhile, in the senate Rand Paul will again say things on the senate floor that if spoken on this forum would have him banned as a paid RU troll.  Fortunately the majority of GOP senators will do the right thing.  

[danfrodo]

Speaking of the right thing, anyone know how buses are supposed to be going over the Dnieper??  Antonovsky?  Ferries?  The dam? 

[chuckdyke]

Just now, danfrodo said:

Speaking of the right thing, anyone know how buses are supposed to be going over the Dnieper??  Antonovsky?  Ferries?  The dam? 

They still have Lend & Lease D.U.K.W s?

[dan/california]

They are probably trying to use the buses as human shields on the ferries. Wouldn't even be the worst thing the Ruzzians have done today.

[dan/california]

Assuming your not on the Russian side it is a hard question what to do, for a civilian in Kherson. All the very real risk of being subject to the Russians, who will probably be looking to take a bad defeat out on somebody. Or hide in the deepest corner of the basement while the flaming hurricane of urban combat rolls over you.