How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

23 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I'm not an Elon Musk Fan myself, but let's do the maths correctly (assuming the numbers are correct). The 85% others paid for the terminals (around 600$ according to a quick search) is roughly 10 million $ vs 1.8 mio $ for SpaceX, true. But the relevant number is that SpaceX pays for 70% of the connectivity costs for 25,000 devices at 4500$ a month each, which is 79 mio $ a month. The devices are peanuts in comparison and focusing on them is a bit... flawed.

$4500 is the most expensive service they offer.  There's nothing that says there are 25K devices getting that service.

And that's retail price, not cost.  Actual cost of providing the service could be a small fraction of that.

I was just reading an article in WaPo a few minutes ago that USAID paid $1500/ea for a bunch of "standard terminals and service".

There are also bunches of Ukrainians posting their monthly invoices for the standard service they're paying for.  Many people are paying for service on multiple terminals.

When I was looking up the cost of a satellite, some of the articles showed SpaceX's own projections of revenue from Starlink.  

My guess would be that a substantial fraction of the service being provided in Ukraine is paid for by a variety of sources: US gov't, other gov'ts, individuals, and SpaceX.  If SpaceX is demanding payment for service that wasn't contracted, they're also asking for DCMA to visit and see how much service they've actually been providing that isn't paid for by some other source, and it will probably turn out that it's not costing them all that much, and the bad press that Musk is trying to get will cost them more just providing the service, which is in some sense some of the lowest cost advertising they can get "hey, you think your application is demanding?  Ukraine used our stuff in a war zone to defeat Russia" (and they don't even have to say it).  Someone inside SpaceX knows the numbers and from some recent tweets it sounds like they got through to him and told him to shut up.  

And its entirely possible that in parallel there are contract negotiations going on that will fully cover the costs.  But whoever gets that taken care of won't go advertising it on twitter, and the USG will probably keep it quiet as well, possibly even as part of the deal.

Edited October 16, 2022 by chrisl

[womble]

Regarding bridge damage and repair: wasn't it the Kremlin (or maybe Crimea Central) who set a deadline for repair of the Kerch bridge for July next year? Given that's the Russians setting a deadline, does it seem likely it'll be done sooner?

[Butschi]

14 minutes ago, chrisl said:

$4500 is the most expensive service they offer.  There's nothing that says there are 25K devices getting that service.

And that's retail price, not cost.  Actual cost of providing the service could be a small fraction of that.

I was just reading an article in WaPo a few minutes ago that USAID paid $1500/ea for a bunch of "standard terminals and service".

There are also bunches of Ukrainians posting their monthly invoices for the standard service they're paying for.  Many people are paying for service on multiple terminals.

When I was looking up the cost of a satellite, some of the articles showed SpaceX's own projections of revenue from Starlink.  

My guess would be that a substantial fraction of the service being provided in Ukraine is paid for by a variety of sources: US gov't, other gov'ts, individuals, and SpaceX.  If SpaceX is demanding payment for service that wasn't contracted, they're also asking for DCMA to visit and see how much service they've actually been providing that isn't paid for by some other source, and it will probably turn out that it's not costing them all that much, and the bad press that Musk is trying to get will cost them more just providing the service, which is in some sense some of the lowest cost advertising they can get "hey, you think your application is demanding?  Ukraine used our stuff in a war zone to defeat Russia" (and they don't even have to say it).  Someone inside SpaceX knows the numbers and from some recent tweets it sounds like they got through to him and told him to shut up.  

And its entirely possible that in parallel there are contract negotiations going on that will fully cover the costs.  But whoever gets that taken care of won't go advertising it on twitter, and the USG will probably keep it quiet as well, possibly even as part of the deal.

I am getting increasingly irritated by the way we do discussions here. Shall we, maybe, concentrate on what I actually wrote? I answered to a post, which itself was a reaction to Musks tweet. The post picked the one number (85%) and ignored the rest. I explicitly presented the calculation based on the assumption that "the numbers are correct". If so, focusing on the 85% is a flawed calculation. I said nothing else.

Btw. If you give someone something you would otherwise charge him for you don't just lose what that product costs you but what you would charge - money you would have otherwise.

Edited October 16, 2022 by Butschi

[FancyCat]

ATACMS sooner than later plz. 

 

 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

4 minutes ago, womble said:

Regarding bridge damage and repair: wasn't it the Kremlin (or maybe Crimea Central) who set a deadline for repair of the Kerch bridge for July next year? Given that's the Russians setting a deadline, does it seem likely it'll be done sooner?

Repairing the bridge is not a binary thing.

On the first day it was one lain for small vehicles and a lone train locomotive. 

From a year or two from now it could be "good as new" including from full load capacity to new coating on the all the structures.

In between of those two are many many other states. Including "shut down for further repairs", even if it was close to full capacity before that.

[chrisl]

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I am getting increasingly irritated by the way we do discussions here. Shall we, maybe, concentrate on what I actually wrote? I answered to a post, which itself was a reaction to Musks tweet. The post picked the one number (85%) and ignored the rest. I explicitly presented the calculation based on the assumption that "the numbers are correct". If so, focusing on the 85% is a flawed calculation. I said nothing else.

Btw. If you give someone something you would otherwise charge him for you don't just lose what that product costs you but what you would charge - money you would have otherwise.

Nothing in my post was intended to attack you, but I don't think the numbers that Musk kicks around are correct.  Or likely even close to correct.  And the only number I picked out was the $4500, not the 85%, because either Musk or the press like to keep saying "our most expensive service is $4500/mo" without detailing how many terminals in Ukraine are getting that service vs the $100/mo service.

If you give someone something that you charge for that *they* otherwise would pay for, then you're reducing your income by that much.  But what it costs you is only what it costs you, especially if it doesn't use enough of your capacity to limit your sales to other people.  When the USG is buying something in bulk (like internet service from a satellite provider, for example), they often negotiate prices that are based on actual cost+reasonable profit rather than some published retail price.  Retail prices are often structured in funny ways, like printers below cost and overpriced ink, cell phones sold below cost with high priced service, or Starlink terminals below cost+overpriced service, where the price structure is designed to make the barrier to entry low and then make up the loss on the high priced service.  The government might reasonably choose to pay full cost for the terminals and then pay cost+agreed profit for the service.

All I was trying to do in my post is point out that Musk is likely *way* overplaying how much the service to Ukraine is costing Starlink, that there are a lot of people and organizations paying for Starlink service in Ukraine, and that it's very possible that they'll be made whole in the end anyway.

 

[Haiduk]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Apparently there is more speculation that Ukraine is using Neptune cruise missiles to strike ground targets.  Most recently the Belgorod power plant and possibly also oil refinery (or storage, not clear which):

One of the sources speculating on this a little over a year ago:

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/fact-check-does-ukraine-really-have-1000km-range-cruise-missile-191276

We've talked about this possibility in the past.  An unmodified Neptune couldn't effectively used against ground targets, but with the right guidance system it is possible.  Certainly the US military is in the process of adopting a universal missile platform (developed by the US Navy) so the theory, at least, is sound.

Thoughts?

Steve

This hit coincidented in time with launches of 10 S-300 from Belgorod toward Kharkiv and failure of 8 or 9 of them. Also the range between "Kyiv area" and Belgorod  is 400-450 km, what exceeds Neptune range (285-300 km by different info)

[Haiduk]

8 hours ago, akd said:

Maj. Gleb Mayboroda, unknown VDV unit:

@sburke

HQ of 98th airborne division 

 

[TheVulture]

55 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Nothing in my post was intended to attack you, but I don't think the numbers that Musk kicks around are correct.  Or likely even close to correct.  And the only number I picked out was the $4500, not the 85%, because either Musk or the press like to keep saying "our most expensive service is $4500/mo" without detailing how many terminals in Ukraine are getting that service vs the $100/mo service.

 

Exactly. There is no way that the operational cost of the to tier package is costing starlink $54,000 per year. It's probably like a lot of services: the top tier package has a massive markup because it is aiming at very rich customers who can afford to pay 10x the price to get 20% better service. Much like buying top end graphics cards or computer parts.

The $4,500 per month figure only becomes relevant if Starlink is turning down commercial customers who would pay that much because it doesn't have the spare bandwidth, due to reserving X amount for Ukraine. (Although I'm pretty sure that standard business practice for an oversubscribed service would be to increase the price until demand matched supply again).

[Haiduk]

Aftermath of shooting on firing range in Belgorod oblast. Reportedly during PKM firing practice two tajicks turned around and opened fire to the line of soldiers, awaiting own turn. Officially 11 dead, 15 wounded, unofficially 22 dead, 16 wounded

One of shooers - tajik Amizonda Tojiddin, was mobilized to 138th MRB

And some also about relations inside Russian army. Here is fresh video, how Russian citizens, natives of Kazakhstan punish Russian for his words "I will slaughter kazakhs" (probably because Kazakhstan rejected to support Russia)

Nothing most worst for usual Russian Vanya conscript exists when he turned out to the unit with Caucasians old-servicemen (on Russian slang "ded" - eng. "grandpa"). Caucasians, especially Chechens, Ingushs and Dagestanians humilitate, bully and beat up Russian conscript and even contractor soldiers. In less grade this also true for Syberian and Far East minorities like Yakutians, Buriats and Tuvians, which also bully Russian conscripts.

On the photo - favorite type of funny photos of Caucasians - to write on heads or backs of Russians slogans like "Dagi / Chechens / Ingushs are power"

 

 

Edited October 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

UKR soldier writes Russians are attcking on Davydiv Brid direction (their attacks started three days ago) and judging to his words in comment "I just don't want to tell all what I know", likely enemy has some success. 

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

Nothing in my post was intended to attack you

Oh well, I should have learned by now that I'm too cranky on Sunday mornings before the first mug of coffee to visit the forums.

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

Musk is likely *way* overplaying

That is of course very much like him.

[pavel.k]

52 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

UKR soldier writes Russians are attcking on Davydiv Brid direction (their attacks started three days ago) and judging to his words in comment "I just don't want to tell all what I know", likely enemy has some success. 

I hope main UKR forces regrouped for attack from another direction (Snihurivka?) and left just blocking force there.

[Letter from Prague]

New Perun dropped, and very on topic.

[akd]

On 10/12/2022 at 1:46 PM, akd said:

Col. Eduard Shandura, commander of the 205th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, killed by sniper on the Kherson front:

@sburke @Kinophile

Shandura’s death appears to have been a fake report.

OMON Col. Alexey Grachev and Lt. Col. Andrey Golovin:

 

Edited October 16, 2022 by akd

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Aftermath of shooting on firing range in Belgorod oblast. Reportedly during PKM firing practice two tajicks turned around and opened fire to the line of soldiers, awaiting own turn. Officially 11 dead, 15 wounded, unofficially 22 dead, 16 wounded

One of shooers - tajik Amizonda Tojiddin, was mobilized to 138th MRB

And some also about relations inside Russian army. Here is fresh video, how Russian citizens, natives of Kazakhstan punish Russian for his words "I will slaughter kazakhs" (probably because Kazakhstan rejected to support Russia)

Nothing most worst for usual Russian Vanya conscript exists when he turned out to the unit with Caucasians old-servicemen (on Russian slang "ded" - eng. "grandpa"). Caucasians, especially Chechens, Ingushs and Dagestanians humilitate, bully and beat up Russian conscript and even contractor soldiers. In less grade this also true for Syberian and Far East minorities like Yakutians, Buriats and Tuvians, which also bully Russian conscripts.

On the photo - favorite type of funny photos of Caucasians - to write on heads or backs of Russians slogans like "Dagi / Chechens / Ingushs are power"

 

 

Ah yes, more quality NCO action, shutting down the hazing and building a strong,  cohesive team spirit built on mutual respect and professional leadership. 

Oh wait. 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, pavel.k said:

I hope main UKR forces regrouped for attack from another direction (Snihurivka?) and left just blocking force there.

The second UKR is often the actual boot that does the real a$$-kicking. 

[Kinophile]

On 10/13/2022 at 4:30 AM, The_Capt said:

Dismounted Infantry are like sandflies, they get into everything and drive you nuts.  

Lmao 

So true. 

[Beleg85]

It seems finally Iranian engagement did piss off Israelis, albeit this politician  is rather insignificant figure. Curious of what real help they are able to provide.

Also, watch Belarus direction, Russian channels are reporting of "terrorist plot". Possible false flag.

Edited October 16, 2022 by Beleg85

[Kinophile]

8 hours ago, chrisl said:

It's not a wasted attack with a one-off truck bomb.  It still will slow down transport across the bridge by both rail and truck since they have to crank up inspections.  And it's not like they're going to be efficient about inspections - they haven't shown any efficiency in logistics since Feb.  And if they don't crank up inspections they'll get bombed again.

The rail bridge may also have some pretty severe hidden damage.  At least one discussion of it I saw claimed that it's ballast in a steel pan, rather than reinforced concrete.  If it's true, it probably heated up the steel much faster than it would heat through concrete, and the segment that had the extended fire would be very weakened and susceptible to deformation and eventual failure if they run heavy trains across it.  Unfortunately the bridge construction doc that was linked a few days ago only has detail on the road bridge, not the rail bridge, so I haven't seen if it's true about the ballast-in-a-pan thing.

Ref steel pan, my posted pictures earlier corroborate that:

The poured concrete must have rebar in it otherwise it would rapidly  (ie just months) crumble apart under the pressure,  expansion contraction and vibrations (the photos so far do indicate its in fine condition other that the struck areas). 

Im not saying its a wasted attack as such, it obviously had a great effect and the political timing was just *MWAH!*. 

I just want to see more than a one off strike. 

 

 

[akd]

There was an open question about the “bear paw in circle” marking seen on several BMP-2Ms and some T-80s.  This appears to be used by the “Baikal” volunteer battalion.

 

[Letter from Prague]

Since about 15 % of Israelis are Russian-speakers, most of whom are likely Russians, I'm not expecting that even Iran will make them change their pro-Russia stance. It would be nice if it helped West calibrate their Israel stance better, but I'm not hopeful either.

Edited October 16, 2022 by Letter from Prague

[Probus]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

two tajicks turned around and opened fire

Who are tajicks?

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, Probus said:

Who are tajicks?

Tajikistan - Wikipedia

 

One of those interesting historical parallels.  

Russian troops were required to restore order during uprisings against the Khanate of Kokand between 1910 and 1913. Further violence occurred in July 1916 when demonstrators attacked Russian soldiers in Khujand over the threat of forced conscription during World War I.

Edited October 16, 2022 by sburke

[danfrodo]

55 minutes ago, sburke said:

Tajikistan - Wikipedia

 

One of those interesting historical parallels.  

Russian troops were required to restore order during uprisings against the Khanate of Kokand between 1910 and 1913. Further violence occurred in July 1916 when demonstrators attacked Russian soldiers in Khujand over the threat of forced conscription during World War I.

That Tajikistan leader really laid into Putin, including some finger wagging.  Nicely done.  Certainly shows that Putin's neighbors know he has no army left.  Public scolding of Putin, unbelievable thing just 6 months ago.

Musk wakes up, realizes what a confusing mess he's got going w his businesses, lashes out on twitter over some side show.  I am sure investors are getting more & more nervous w his behavior, especially following the twitter disaster.  He's done some good things but I think he's in over his head and needs to learn to have good advisors and at least listen to them before making gigantic decisions.  And put away your damn phone, you are not a teenager! 

Does Russian public know about the mobik massacre?  I get that response will mostly be an increase in ethnic hatred, but I wonder what other knock-on effects it could have going forward?  And do they know mobiks are getting killed & captured already?  I know Putin said 16k of them were already in UKR. 

Meanwhile, fronts have gone relatively dark to us.  Doesn't mean there's not fighting, just no news it seems.  Weather looks mostly dry over the coming week for both Kharkiv and Kherson, though some rain in Kharkiv region.  Hopefully UKR can find those weak spots they've been so good at locating and unhinge RU defensive lines.