How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

Those entities also paid for about 30% of the internet connectivity, which SpaceX says costs $4,500 each month per unit for the most advanced service. (Over the weekend, Musk tweeted there are around 25,000 terminals in Ukraine.)

So top end currently under 80 million a month.  1 billion for a year for this level of connection for a distributed and battle proven comms solution.  Let’s compare it to the other Pentagon communications contracts and see how raw a deal he’s offering…

Nothing wrong with being paid, the rest of the MIC is getting paid, the issue is Musk put his foot in his mouth right before SpaceX asked for the money. Had he shut his yapper, I have no doubt Ukraine would be strongly and 100% behind the U.S government paying full cost. At this point, it’s probably a decent chance to get a small discount off covering the rest of the costs SpaceX has been shouldering.

[Battlefront.com]

11 hours ago, sburke said:

Sergei Maslov, Top Russian Judge Linked to Ramzan Kadyrov, Allegedly Killed in Crimea Bridge Explosion (thedailybeast.com)

Found this:

https://vk.com/wall-204520230_2696?lang=en

And this:

https://eprimefeed.com/latest-news/russian-telegram-channels-reported-the-death-of-a-moscow-judge-on-the-crimean-bridge/201100/

Assumption would be that the judge and the fitness instructor were together.  The married couple were friends.  All were in the one passenger vehicle that clearly got destroyed by the blast.

This is one of the few things I believe out of the Russians.

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

OK, I would like the whole Musk thing to go elsewhere.  It was relevant a wee bit a while back, but now it's straying way off topic.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Something I've been meaning to mention for a few months now, but for some reason I don't remember to do so.

Can we give a big round of applause for Ukraine's new found OPSEC capabilities?  I know it still has a lot of Russian moles and double agents burrowed everywhere within the Ukrainian government, but it seems that the Ukrainians have someone figured out how to minimize their ability to affect much of anything.

Quite a difference from even the start of the war, not to mention 2014 when senior people of influence were killed, either through murder or by being set up (the two SBU colonels ambushed going after Bezler, IIRC, always come to mind).

I'm not saying things are perfect, but it is night and day different from where it used to be.  Another win for the great strategist Putin!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

From yesterday's ISW report.  Yesh...

Quote

Russian milbloggers claimed that Commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District (SMD), Mikhail Zusko, ordered the immediate deployment without any pre-combat training of newly mobilized servicemen of the 15th Regiment of the 27th Motor Rifle Brigade from Moscow City and Moscow Oblast to the collapsing frontline around Svatove around October 2nd and 3rd.[2] Ukrainian outlets had previously reported that the Kremlin has arrested Zusko due to combat losses, and it is unclear why an SMD commander would issue orders pertaining to a unit within the Western Military District (WMD).[3] Milbloggers noted that relatives found half of the 15th Regiment personnel wounded in a Belgorod Oblast hospital after the unit got caught in heavy artillery fire when attempting to reach the Svatove frontline. Milbloggers noted that the regiment had no orders, military command supervision, signal, or supplies, and that the other half of its personnel is still at the Svatove frontline. Another milblogger noted witnessing the coffins of mobilized men arrive in Chelaybinsk, Moscow, and Yekaterenburg, and claimed that many mobilized men are surrendering to Ukrainian forces.[4] One Russian milblogger complained on October 13 that newly mobilized men are being deployed in a haphazard way that will lead to 10,000 deaths and 40,000 injuries among them by February 2023.[5]

 

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

From yesterday's ISW report.  Yesh...

 

back to that fortifications discussion.  To have a force multiplier don't you first have to have a force?  No star wars jokes please.  

[chuckdyke]

I heard that during his days in the KGB putin was head of the Bureau of Disinformation. If this is true, he must have been an absolute master in his craft.

[Battlefront.com]

This is unverified, but it certainly is something I think we have all been thinking was just a matter of time before it happened:

Quote

A large group of partially mobilized Russians surrendered to Ukrainian defenders in the Kherson region. All the occupants were transferred to one of the hot spots of the front without training, equipment and with an order to stand to the end.

...

When the right time came, an officer of the lower ranks began to resist and tried to raise hell. His comrades-in-arms killed him and surrendered.

https://charter97.org/en/news/2022/10/13/519719/

 

ISW report mentioned some footage that I haven't seen posted here:

Quote

Geolocated video footage posted on October 13 shows Ukrainian forces capturing Russian troops who voluntarily surrendered near the N26 highway in Krokhmalne, about 20km northwest of Svatove.

Anybody seen this footage?  Is this it?

 

Steve

[Taranis]

9 hours ago, stuxneet said:

Just because I'm too interested in personal gear: Almost 100% the Paul Boye vest, considering we know France has donated armor and I can't think of a country who has used the CIRAS or RMV in substantial numbers in the past 15 years

Well I also think like you. The handle at the back of the vest and the "shoulder loops" also make me think of it.

[Taranis]

8 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I would cast Matthias Schoenaerts to play Putin in "The Death of Putin" .

 

Allow me to edit: "I would cast Matthias Schoenaerts Gollum to play Putin in "The Death of Putin" . 

[Fenris]

Reports of the fresh conscripts being thrown into the deep end are hardly surprising.  At least to us here.

Here's a couple of tweets that I think high-light how poorly things are being managed.

This one discusses the "value" of the recent retaliatory missile strikes

 

And a translated clip frmo Julia Davis, Solovyov is either starting to have a rude awakening or is a great actor.

 

Edited October 14, 2022 by Fenris

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

Allow me to edit: "I would cast Matthias Schoenaerts Gollum to play Putin in "The Death of Putin" . 

LOL, this post brought back some memories. I remember when the LOTR movies first came out there were some RU nats on another forum, who claimed that the creators of the movies made Gollum look like Putin on purpose.

 Even they could see the resemblance.

Edited October 14, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[LongLeftFlank]

 

30 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

LOL, this post brought back some memories. I remember when the LOTR movies first came out their were some RU nats on another forum, who claimed that the creators of the movies made Gollum look like Putin on purpose.

 

Nah, you were right the first time. Shave that actor's head (think Buschemi as Khrushchev, although he was still WAY too skinny) and do some CGI to shrink the chin and he would do nicely.

While a pathological INTJ type (I am INTJ as well btw, but the happy kind), Putin can do *quite* intimidating stuff with his eyes (VERY limited eye contact though) and general body language; very catlike (apologies @IanL, @FancyCat and various other Forum hepcats). 

Putin smiling (with teeth) is about as natural and comforting as this....

...We can hate on our enemy without denying the personal skills that moved him to the top of a very vicious pyramid.

Edited October 14, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Seedorf81]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is unverified, but it certainly is something I think we have all been thinking was just a matter of time before it happened:

https://charter97.org/en/news/2022/10/13/519719/

 

ISW report mentioned some footage that I haven't seen posted here:

Anybody seen this footage?  Is this it?

 

Steve

Look at the mud.

Rasputitsa on the way.

[LongLeftFlank]

42 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Look at the mud.

R̶a̶s̶p̶u̶t̶i̶t̶s̶a̶ Blasted railheads and bridges on the way.

Fixed that for ya 

****

https://mhinfographics.com/2022/05/24/random-details-of-failed-maps/

 

Edited October 14, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Taranis]

France delivered rocket launchers to Ukraine
 

Quote

France has delivered unitary rocket launchers (LRU = Lance Roquette Unitaire, by opposition to MLRS) to Ukraine, assures Le Monde an official source wishing to remain anonymous, confirming the hypothesis put forward on Monday, October 10 by the specialized letter Intelligence online. The number of units delivered was not given but some sources mention the figure of three. Capable of striking at a distance of 70 kilometers with an accuracy of a few meters, the LRU is a ground-to-ground system similar to the M142 HIMARS multiple rocket launcher, 20 of which the United States delivered to the kyiv armed forces, which intensive use since this summer to hit Russian logistics depots and command centers behind the front. The French Army is officially equipped with 13 LRUs, which are attached to the 1st Artillery Regiment of Belfort, located in Bourogne. But only 8 of them would be operational, according to the senator (LR) of the Territory of Belfort Cédric Perrin, who was moved on October 12 on Twitter. Asked, the army did not wish to comment on this assertion. 

Source Le Monde

The LRU is a kind of variant of the M270. As the text indicates, it is a vehicle that is only found in the French 1er RA (Artillery Regiment)
 

Quote

"MARS II / LRU / MLRS-I is a European variant of the M270A1 involving Germany, France, and Italy. Mittleres Artillerieraketensystem (MARS II). The launchers are equipped with the European Fire Control System (EFCS) designed by Airbus Defense and Space. The EFCS disables the firing of submunitions-carrying rockets to ensure full compliance with the Convention on Cluster Munitions." (from wiki)

 

Edited October 14, 2022 by Taranis

[Taranis]

"A Ukrainian soldier on a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher, in the Kharkiv region, October 4, 2022. YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP"

*It's quite funny, there are many comments who wonder about the fact that there is a US patch on his outfit and therefore think that it is an American... They do not understand that it comes from pop culture (US films etc) or/and a way of identifying with NATO, which are acts of individual "customization". The Russians wear Soviet flags, yet the USSR no longer exists and no one asks the question...

Edited October 14, 2022 by Taranis

[Taranis]

"A Ukrainian artillery unit, near a front line in the Donetsk region, August 27, 2022. ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP"
*BM-27 Uragan

[The_Capt]

22 hours ago, sburke said:

You make a very reasoned. well thought out and concisely written reply, but I think I'm gonna have to go with Russians suck.  

According to our Ukrainian friends the cold and rain is likely gonna hit in a few weeks.  

• The Russian horde is still in preparatory phase of learning to tie their boot laces (assuming they got boots)
• Russian logistics already suck, it isn't like they have spare excess capacity.  If they are suddenly going to transport tons of fortification materials, something else will be left sitting at the warehouse loading dock
• with the turn in the weather truck transport is going to be more difficult and more fuel intensive leading to even more strain on the logistical train

so here we go - 
fresh meat appearing at the front largely untrained with not much in the way of NCO leadership if any.
even fewer supplies than normal cause they have to truck in tons and tons of concrete
lack of attention to physical care cause there is no one to tell them to dry their socks etc.. if they have socks.

and all that fun before the UA gets to add to their misery.

Hey so long as it is an observation I think we are fine.  Once it becomes a planning assumption things get potentially more risky.  Mistranslating everything the Russians are doing to fit a “they suck” assumption is much worse.  One should not oversubscribe an enemy anymore than undersubscribe until one is totally sure.

I personally think that the RA is pretty much shattered and is on a downward one-way slope.  I do not think Wagner mercs or any other rabbit in the hat is going to save them.  But those pictures are of a professional old-school obstacle belt in the making.  This is a bit concerning as the RA has enough gas in the tank to try these works but they are going to need a lot more, and even then I am not sure they will work as intended.  I am less in the “Russians suck camp” and more in the “they came dressed for the wrong war and now are pretty much broken” camp.  I am far more interested in what war this is actually happening right now because it will directly influence the next one. 

Edited October 14, 2022 by The_Capt

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Taranis said:

It's quite funny, there are many comments who wonder about the fact that there is a US patch on his outfit and therefore think that it is an American... They do not understand that it comes from pop culture

Like welding cages on his turrets, Ivan gonna think whatever helps him cope with his increasingly crappy days.

Keep chewing up the RU forces and the rest takes care of itself, as Napoleon said.  At this point, the West is *far* too engaged in Ukraine to allow it to fail.

As others on this board know firsthand, we backed far weaker horses in the Mideast (and Southeast Asia) for years, to the tune of trillions.

It's so refreshing to back a nation with broad popular support, a people shaping their own destiny largely through their own efforts and sacrifices, for a change!  When the heck did we last see that? Oh, right, early 2014, same people....

[chuckdyke]

Got a long history. 

Theodor Oberländer - Wikipedia

[Taranis]

On Spy/Intelligence front :
Russian arrested in Norway in possession of drones and 4 terabytes of photos and videos
 

Quote

 

A Russian, arrested in possession of two drones and a mass of photos and videos shot in Norway, was remanded in custody on Friday as he tried to return to his country, Norwegian justice announced.

Vitali Rustanov, 50, was arrested in the Arctic on Wednesday at the Storskog border crossing, the only crossing point between Norway and Russia, as he attempted to return to Russia with two drones and digital storage equipment . From the court decision seen by Agence France-Presse (AFP), it appears that Mr. Roustanov, in Norway since August, admitted to having flown the drones "throughout the country". He had 4 terabytes of photos and videos, some of which were encrypted.

On Friday, a judge at the Vadso court placed him in pre-trial detention for two weeks, as requested by the police. "There are (…) reasons to believe that the defendant will try to escape legal proceedings if he is not placed in pre-trial detention", estimated the magistrate, arguing that the person concerned had identity papers. Russian and Israeli identity.

Like other Western countries, Norway has banned Russian persons and entities from flying over its territory, in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Violation of these penalties is punishable by up to three years in prison.

This episode comes as mysterious drone flights have been reported near Norway's energy facilities, including near its offshore oil and gas platforms. neighbor have led the country, now the biggest supplier of gas to Europe after the reduction of Russian deliveries in the wake of the war in Ukraine, to strengthen security around its facilities.

According to Norwegian media, a new drone flight near the gas processing unit in Karsto (southwest) was observed on Thursday evening. The police, who have still not identified the person or persons responsible, have requested the help of the population.

 

From le Monde

Personally, 3 years for spying, I don't think that's a lot...

 

[TheVulture]

16 minutes ago, Taranis said:

On Spy/Intelligence front :
Russian arrested in Norway in possession of drones and 4 terabytes of photos and videos
 

From le Monde

Personally, 3 years for spying, I don't think that's a lot...

 

The 3 years is, if I'm reading it right, the penalty for being in a plane flying over Norwegian airspace. I don't think it is implying anything about the potential penalty for being convicted of spying.

[LongLeftFlank]

1.  So how's that reverse slope defence on the west bank of the Krasna river working out?  Hmm, maybe not so great, when your positions just get flanked and wiped out (those that don't just surrender) by veteran UA combat groups who don't care much about mud and rain.

2.  Kraken clearing the 'all weather' road to the outskirts of Svatove (DefMon is *very* conservative about his control zones).

3. Noel's feed is more up to the minute, but his maps are way too 'Arrowy-Flaggy' to be useful.

4. A quick look at the ground....

5.  Dab For Effect!

 

Edited October 14, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[billbindc]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Something I've been meaning to mention for a few months now, but for some reason I don't remember to do so.

Can we give a big round of applause for Ukraine's new found OPSEC capabilities?  I know it still has a lot of Russian moles and double agents burrowed everywhere within the Ukrainian government, but it seems that the Ukrainians have someone figured out how to minimize their ability to affect much of anything.

Quite a difference from even the start of the war, not to mention 2014 when senior people of influence were killed, either through murder or by being set up (the two SBU colonels ambushed going after Bezler, IIRC, always come to mind).

I'm not saying things are perfect, but it is night and day different from where it used to be.  Another win for the great strategist Putin!

Steve

I would imagine that the relative collapse of Russian penetration of Ukrainian gov't and security services is less about successful counter operations and more about it's basic structure. For under 60 recruits, the motivation was not about affiliations with the larger Soviet state of their youth. It was about crass calculations of money and what looked like the inevitable triumph of Russia over Ukraine and the method of that triumph was not expected to be an inept, genocidal war featuring rape, torture and global opprobrium. Before the war began, it may have looked like the smart and profitable long term move. Russia's invasion changed that. It touched the stubborn streak in Ukraine. And suddenly, collaboration with the Russians wasn't valuable at all. It was shameful and more shamefully actually the sucker's bet.