How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

Part of the truck lodged on the bridge structure:

 

Edited October 12, 2022 by akd

[Beleg85]

https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/10/12/russia-s-irrecoverable-losses-in-ukraine-more-than-90-000-troops-dead-disabled-or-awol

According to this source Russians lost 90 k irrecoverable lossess so far. Hard to tell how credible it is.

26 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

I remember that someone on the forum said that the open placement of anti-tank mines on the road is pointless ...

It's sophisticated action to ruin Ukrainian morale: imagine all those UA engineers spending hours in the dirt digging and masking minefields...while it was enough to just put them just like that for the same effect. Devastating.

[asurob]

Ukraine's Plan to Win the War

I love the infographics channel, they break things down for the most common youtube user.  This was written and produced prior to putin's old man mobilization.

Edited October 12, 2022 by asurob

[A Canadian Cat]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hmm.  These images might show a downward impact on the side of the surviving span next to the one that split.  I can't think of what else it could be other than that.

<snip>

Thoughts?

Steve

Keeping in mind I'm not more of an explosive expert than you are but I don't think that warped edge is from an impact. If it were I would expect more damage to that railing. I think.

That whole section seems to have been twisted a bit - not visible in this picture but others. I think the explosion and shifting caused that section of road bed to be twisted. I think that's what caused that edge to be deflected. To me it looks like what happens when a metal part with a shaped edge gets bent and then you try to straighten it and the edge is just never the same shape any more.

[Beleg85]

It is so nice Ukrianians specifically and totally randomly mentioned Musk to give him ability to reassert himself today...what a theatre. Still difficult to say if he is so childish, really handicapped or just attention-seeking:

 

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Combatintman said:

A good comparison is the German V weapon campaign in 1944-1945.  A ton of effort and cash expended to achieve a physical effect on the targets that was comparable or less than conventional bombing during the Battle of Britain.  The value of the campaign to the Nazi regime was to reinforce a myth of superiority and to reassure the populace that the enemy could be struck despite the grim battlefield situation.

So, it was well worth the effort, no? Actions like this are for internal consumption, not for the effect on the enemy.

1 hour ago, Pete Wenman said:

I have no knowledge in this field  whatsoever, but what if it was a thermobaric warhead. More blast for size, and a pressure wave to bounce the bridge sections off their mountings?

 

I guess a thermobaric explosion would have pushed or pulled some of the rail cars or the other vehicles on the road. None of that happened.

I'm in the missile camp, but I can't explain two things:

1.  Why did nobody see or hear it coming down?
2. Why weren't the Russians not at least trying to shoot it down? Which should have been visible, too?

Edited October 12, 2022 by poesel

[akd]

R-149MA1 received the M30A1/A2 ventilation treatment:

 

[RandomCommenter]

Hi guys, I want to share this article here because I thought it was interesting and because it made me re-question my assumptions on the whole conflict. Luckily for me having re-questioned my assumptions I ended up exactly where I started - i.e. screw Vlad and this war only ends when the last Russian soldier leaves Ukraine including Crimea. So i do not endorse what the author of the piece says, in fact I disagree with it. And in a certain sense there is nothing new here, it is a rehash of the John Mearsheimer and George Kennan positions which have been previously dismantled on this forum.

So why do I post this article here? Because it is a good antidote to groupthink. And I think we need to avoid falling in to groupthink, to occasionally sit back and question fundamental assumptions on the conflict. So in essence the argument here is the old imperialist canard of Ukraine is in Russia's back yard, Russia is big and scary and should have influence over neighboring countries' security policies. Which is bull (in fact was the argument used by the British to occupy Ireland for so long). Other people call it "realpolitik".

Anyway, I found the article useful to read something from a totally different perspective from the news and opinion I have been consuming this past months and maybe others here will do the same.

https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/complications-of-the-ukraine-war/?utm_campaign=imprimis&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=229431640&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_La5DaB1fPX9KQZ2Xa_odqOP2-GTOG4C5jTw48oNLb3LFrSSJAF2bp1IyvbsGqbzqV3ERXryCpTN6YbUkdmIZ0mxt_Ag&utm_content=229431640&utm_source=hs_email

 

And while I'm here I want to give a little pitch for two books, one I finished last week and one I am currently reading.

The first is "Ukraine and Russia From Civilized Divorce to Uncivil War" - this goes through the period 1991 to 2014 and basically shows how this conflict was all but inevitable from quite early, even 1993 or so. But it was a good refresher of the 2004 Orange Revolution, Maidan etc. which I remember but was still good to have the narrative told in one place.

https://www.amazon.com/Ukraine-Russia-Civilied-Divorce-Uncivil/dp/1108713955

 

The second is "Borderland A Journey Through the History of Ukraine" by Anna Reid. This one is a much lighter read. Kind of half travelogue and half history. Real bed-time reading. It was written in about 1995 when Ukraine was first emerging out of the USSR and then I think the author tacked on a chapter or two and re-did the introduction after 2014 to update it. I am about half-way through this book. It is very interesting on the 19th century background, influence of the Poles etc.

https://www.amazon.com/Borderland-Journey-Through-History-Ukraine/dp/0465055893

 

 

 

[JonS]

5 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

Looks like the queues in Dover.

[sburke]

53 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

if he is so childish, really handicapped AND just attention-seeking:

yes.

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Letter from Prague]

Czech media claim that the German government spokesperson literally answered the NordStream 2 offer by saying "nice try". But I haven't seen that anywhere else, so it might be embellishment.

[danfrodo]

8 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

ha ha ha.  So Putler finds he needs the money more than EU needs his fuel.  And europe really needs that energy, so he must be in a bind.  I think he keeps expecting UKR allies to give up, yet every escalation has brought more aid to Ukraine.   "Do not disturb!  Super Genius at work!"

 

[Huba]

Can't make this up. It looks like the "new, powerful defensive line" that Russians started constructing is in fact another Wagner/ Prighozin project, and quite possibly a PR stunt:

 

[Blazing 88's]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

So, it was well worth the effort, no? Actions like this are for internal consumption, not for the effect on the enemy.

I guess a thermobaric explosion would have pushed or pulled some of the rail cars or the other vehicles on the road. None of that happened.

I'm in the missile camp, but I can't explain two things:

1.  Why did nobody see or hear it coming down?
2. Why weren't the Russians not at least trying to shoot it down? Which should have been visible, too?

This is from a post on here earlier, posted the day or day after the event. Chrisl's post of the dash cam footage: https://community.battlefront.com/topic/140931-how-hot-is-ukraine-gonna-get/page/1555/#comment-1955444

I hear a missile when the impact occurs. Nobody said anything on here when I asked if anyone else heard a missile sound on that vid.

As there is question if this was a fake video, if you go frame by frame, at about the 7 sec. mark, you can actually see a explosion cloud in a couple of frames, so I don't think it is a fake. I could be wrong of course.

Edited October 12, 2022 by Blazing 88's

[TOG]

3 hours ago, Combatintman said:

A good comparison is the German V weapon campaign in 1944-1945.  A ton of effort and cash expended to achieve a physical effect on the targets that was comparable or less than conventional bombing during the Battle of Britain.  The value of the campaign to the Nazi regime was to reinforce a myth of superiority and to reassure the populace that the enemy could be struck despite the grim battlefield situation.

Actually, according to assessment in wikipedia article on V1's, they were pretty cost effective weapons - interesting table there. V2 not so much... 

[akd]

4 minutes ago, Blazing 88&#x27;s said:

This is from a post on here earlier, posted the day or day after the event. Chrisl's post of the dash cam footage: https://community.battlefront.com/topic/140931-how-hot-is-ukraine-gonna-get/page/1555/#comment-1955444

I hear a missile when the impact occurs. Nobody said anything on here when I asked if anyone else heard a missile sound on that vid.

As there is question if this was a fake video, if you go frame by frame, at about the 7 sec. mark, you can actually see a explosion cloud in a couple of frames, so I don't think it is a fake. I could be wrong of course.

That was fake.  The attack was pre-dawn.

[TheVulture]

2 minutes ago, Blazing 88&#x27;s said:

This is from a post on here earlier, the day of the event. Chrisl's post of the dash cam footage: https://community.battlefront.com/topic/140931-how-hot-is-ukraine-gonna-get/page/1555/#comment-1955444

I hear a missile when the impact occurs. Nobody said anything on here when I asked if anyone else heard a missile sound on that vid.

As there is question if this was a fake video, if you go frame by frame, at about the 7 sec. mark, you can actually see a explosion cloud in a couple of frames, so I don't think it is a fake. I could be wrong of course.

It's the wrong time of day, for one thing, and has different vehicles on the road. It's fake.

[JonS]

Uh, back from the FEBA is exactly where anyone would build a prepared defensive line in the midst of a hot war (See: Gothic Line, Stalin Line, Hindenberg Line, etc.). That way you can run the line through the best available geography, and get on with building without being constantly under attack.

This is Russia, so it could still just be PR and smoke and mirrors, but the location is not an indicator for that. It's an indicator for the opposite.

Edit: replying to @Huba four up. You people post too fast

Edited October 12, 2022 by JonS

[Blazing 88's]

Thanks as I never got a response the first time. Like I said I could be wrong.

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I come back to the point I made when I Combatintman compelled me to not be so flippant   Which is that even the most impressive and well executed network of defenses doesn't mean squat if it's not properly manned.  This is, I think, a bigger problem for Russia than the UA's likely capability to breach/bypass, though it is absolutely made vastly worse by Ukraine's proven abilities.

It is pretty clear that Russia is facing multilayered deficiencies in its ability to defend.  Manpower is inadequate in terms of both numbers and quality.  Basic equipment for soldiers appears to be nearly exhausted.  Vehicles of all types are increasingly harder to find replacements for.  Ammunition depletion appears to be entering a new stage.  Specialized systems, such as AD and EW, are in decline and there also seems to be no care being taken to adequately train replacement soldiers for the equipment they still have.  Drones, radios, and anything else tech heavy are a rapidly diminishing resource.  Logistics are in tatters generally and worse for specific geographical areas.  Morale is in the subbasement and going to get worse.

That's just a partial list

If we game this out in our heads using Combat Mission as a guide, it's not too difficult to see how even at a tactical level Russia is going to struggle to hold something that Ukraine is determined to take.  At an operational and strategic level it is even harder to imagine conditions that would allow Russia to thwart a Ukrainian operation designed to take back its land.  The fortifications might up the cost to Ukraine a little bit here and there, both in terms of time and resources invested, but I don't see it changing the picture much beyond that.

Steve

So obstacles such as these are force multipliers, much like artillery.  The idea being that you can hold broader frontages with fewer forces because the cost of obstacle breaching is so much higher for the attacker force-wise.  Theoretically, all the Russians really need is sufficient artillery and ISR with fewer troops on the ground, spaced in hard points with AT and radios.  Even lower quality troops would do along defensive belts like this.  

Problem for RA is twofold- first as I outlined earlier is whether or not UA will play by the old rules - which I doubt, they have not so far.  Second is the frontages they are covering, even with these belts is truly immense.  Even with the Kharkiv contraction it still looks like 400km along the L-D-Z line, which is still near Western Front levels.  Even with the best obstacle belts in the world, assuming the UA allows the RA the months to build them, that is going to require a lot of artillery and manpower - one has to have the initial troops to multiply. And the ISR architecture to cover all that in near real time.

Lastly there is the logistical problem.  That is literally millions of mines weighing thousands of tons to make those belts work and the UA keep hitting ammo dumps in depth and the trucks that move them.  

Russian game appears to be driving up cost of retaking ground in hopes to deter UA, might work but the RA would need months and a lot of resources to pull it off.  I doubt the UA will give them that time.  Of course obstacle belts are also very good at canalizations of enemy forces…so if we are still talking tac nukes it could be a set up for that but only if the UA is dumb enough to mass in a convenient KZ.

 My guess is that the UA might not even need to assault these lines, they will just continue to deep strike logistical lines until the RA folds inward and then walk over them.  It is clear that the Russians are playing by the old playbook, same one we would use.  The UA is writing a new one.  How those rulesets play out in this particular collision is still somewhat up in the air.

[The_Capt]

38 minutes ago, JonS said:

Uh, back from the FEBA is exactly where anyone would build a prepared defensive line in the midst of a hot war (See: Gothic Line, Stalin Line, Hindenberg Line, etc.). That way you can run the line through the best available geography, and get on with building without being constantly under attack.

This is Russia, so it could still just be PR and smoke and mirrors, but the location is not an indicator for that. It's an indicator for the opposite.

Edit: replying to @Huba four up. You people post too fast

In this war 10km is a bit close for a major obstacle belt project like this.  You build stuff like this at least an operational bound to the rear, so 20-30kms out of indirect fire range…well before HIMARs and the like.

[The_Capt]

53 minutes ago, Huba said:

Can't make this up. It looks like the "new, powerful defensive line" that Russians started constructing is in fact another Wagner/ Prighozin project, and quite possibly a PR stunt:

 

So whoever put the labels on is a little off.  What they label as “First Trench” is an AT ditch, they even have left the berm up.  The “Second Line” is the fighting position.

It is a textbook complex obstacle, assuming mines all along those dragons teeth and ditch.  That monster, when sighted and covered would make for an entire breaching op to assault.  Of course one needs more than 10km of it on this terrain, unless there is a swamp somewhere to tie it into.

What is interesting is that the UA did not appear to go this way on the defence.  Likely because they did not have the resources, however, they were still able to stop the RA advances cold.  Another oddity in this war.

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, Artkin said:

Something interesting to note in this video is how everything in that explosion is directed toward the left of the frame. Look at all the molten pieces of whatever flying to the left. Nothing is flying to the right.

That's just the wind direction.,no? Standard stuff wind in a coastal strait type. 

[Fenris]

Noting special, just a quick report with some nice close up vision