How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

I wish it were but that's not how American politics works these days. Musk is acting as a useful idiot in this case and amplifying a slowly increasing panic about the possibility of a nuclear war in order to force a ceasefire on Ukraine. It's out there on Tucker, Tulsi Gabbard, Tracey, Greenwald, Chomsky, Fox News, etc. You could easily call it a hostile propaganda campaign (nb: you should).

It's a teacup tizzy because Musk doesn't determine foreign policy or the course of events - Biden does. Musk has no pull on Biden and Biden is not facing reelection. Mid terms are coming but foreign policy plays very little effect on congressional elections.  Not zero, just very little. Biden and his entire Administrative are very much on a moral crusade viz a vis Putler; its a  negative percentage chance they're fretting about the uninformed, Kardashian-level Twitterrings of a fat billionaire with too much time on his hands. Musk is a social media flashmob right now, and about as relevant. 

This too will pass, and will affect absolutely nothing. 

Edited October 12, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

what a pants-wetting piece of s--t

If it's true.  BI would not be the best source for this.  They could easily be a week behind,ie the issues in North Kherson last week. 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

what a pants-wetting piece of s--t

Just nationalize it, and then send him back to South Africa...

I can think of 14 other ways the U.S. government can make him a lot less wealthy if it sets it mind to it.  Cutting off the electric vehicle subsidy for any car costing more than forty grand comes immediately to mind. Can we charge him with a Logan act violation while we are at it?

Edited October 12, 2022 by dan/california

[Vet 0369]

16 hours ago, Zeleban said:

It would be interesting to have something similar in CMBS

Nah, wouldn’t be historically accurate. BFC works very hard at keeping everything as accurate as possible for the given timeframe. In the case of CMBS, that would be 2014. The only thing that should be changed is the performance of the Russian Army. The UKR Army is actually pretty well modeled as they wouldn’t have adopted the NATO tactics yet.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Anybody have a a recents firms map? Those have been the closest thing to ground truth for the whole war, albeit far from infallible.

Apparently a wet day in Eastern Ukraine, the mud always gets a vote.

HeliosRunner's maps don't always show the current 'front line' (often a loose concept in this war) but the topo is very clear as to what the challenge is here....

The Krasna river, with its deep cut wetlands and ravines, is far more challenging to UA than anything the Ivans might dig out.  It looks like the Russians are dug in on the reverse slopes on the west side of the river.  Remains to be seen of course whether reverse slope defence still makes sense in an era of 'peek a boo' drone warfare.....

DefMon3 posts FIRMS maps periodically.

Edited October 12, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[NamEndedAllen]

3 hours ago, Lethaface said:

 

no comment

And Russia will be joining the company of groups like ‘“Lord’s Resistance Army” and Boko Haram unless it manages some sort of the most successful humble groveling and reform ever witnessed in the history of mammals on Earth. The scenario of a replacement autocrat who is just Putin and the rest but somewhat less warring has been suggested as the best we can really hope for in terms of stability. The crimes against humanity would still be hanging around his and Russia’s neck. I doubt they would graciously embrace it and make humble amends. Nor would Ukraine and it’s close neighbors find any solace or trust in such a “ next dictator up” bench move. Internally? Lots and lots of speculation here and around the world, from breakaway warlordism to utter collapse into complete chaos. And everything in between. 

We can speculate, but man oh man, this next year is going to be a doozy. Followed by what promises to be the even more bizarre 2024!

[dan/california]

 

Apparently at least one side is getting active again.

 

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

And Russia will be joining the company of groups like ‘“Lord’s Resistance Army” and Boko Haram unless it manages some sort of the most successful humble groveling and reform ever witnessed in the history of mammals on Earth. The scenario of a replacement autocrat who is just Putin and the rest but somewhat less warring has been suggested as the best we can really hope for in terms of stability. The crimes against humanity would still be hanging around his and Russia’s neck. I doubt they would graciously embrace it and make humble amends. Nor would Ukraine and it’s close neighbors find any solace or trust in such a “ next dictator up” bench move. Internally? Lots and lots of speculation here and around the world, from breakaway warlordism to utter collapse into complete chaos. And everything in between. 

We can speculate, but man oh man, this next year is going to be a doozy. Followed by what promises to be the even more bizarre 2024!

The one thing it all points to is that the west needs to crank ammo production up to near wartime levels for the foreseeable future. From 5.56 to ATACMS and cruise missiles they need to pour concrete and order machinery to put out at least five times the current volume. Worst case scenario it is cheap insurance, and there will be enough ammo to REALLY train for a decade or two. There is a heck of an argument for increasing retention and recruiting bonuses, too. 

[billbindc]

45 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

It's a teacup tizzy because Musk doesn't determine foreign policy or the course of events - Biden does. Musk has no pull on Biden and Biden is not facing reelection. Mid terms are coming but foreign policy plays very little effect on congressional elections.  Not zero, just very little. Biden and his entire Administrative are very much on a moral crusade viz a vis Putler; its a  negative percentage chance they're fretting about the uninformed, Kardashian-level Twitterrings of a fat billionaire with too much time on his hands. Musk is a social media flashmob right now, and about as relevant. 

This too will pass, and will affect absolutely nothing. 

It's very likely that by January 21st we will have a Republican House that is going to be reaching for anything to beat up the administration. You can bet that this will come up again in a more virulent form. Just look at who's always just behind McCarthy when he's on tv now with a group of GOP House members. You'll understand when you see the pecking order.

[Battlefront.com]

Yesterday's ISW report had this fun tidbit:

Quote

 Russian sources reported that fighting in and around Bakhmut is more intense than usual and that Ukrainian artillery attacks intensified to a level unseen since summer 2022.[43] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks north of Avdiivka near Kamianka, and south of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Pobieda, and Opytne on October 9 and 10.

If the RU mil bloggers are correct, this is the first indication I've seen that Ukraine has shifted any additional capacity to the Bakhmut area.

There was also mention that Russia is running out of ammo.  It's supposedly getting 13 trainloads from Belarus and is trying to get more from an unspecified number of other countries.  Good news, obviously.

Steve

[danfrodo]

my last Musk rant:  let's say Elon WetPants gets on phone w Putler.  And Putler says "either you hand over to me all your wealth and control over all your businesses, or I fire a tactical nuke".   

I bet then he'd be singing a very different tune -- "we must stand up to state sponsored nuclear terrorism!  The world must unify in it's determination to bring every pressure to bear to stop this madman!"

Of course, when what's at stake is merely the freedom of 44 million Ukrainians, it's a small price to pay.  "Those people all together don't add up to one John Galt like me"

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Fenris]

Quote

 Russian sources reported that fighting in and around Bakhmut is more intense than usual and that Ukrainian artillery attacks intensified to a level unseen since summer 2022.[43] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks north of Avdiivka near Kamianka, and south of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Pobieda, and Opytne on October 9 and 10.

 

Is there some point to the russians still trying to make it to Bakhmut?  They've been trying for while and events in other areas would seem to be more worthy of effort.

 

[keas66]

8 minutes ago, Fenris said:

 

Is there some point to the russians still trying to make it to Bakhmut?  They've been trying for while and events in other areas would seem to be more worthy of effort.

 

One attempt at an  explanation for this I have seen  is Wagner keeping its forces in one area and seemingly "attacking" - but keeping them away from Kherson and Kremina . They don't want to be associated with areas that are likely to be lost and that keeps the blame on the Regular Russian Army and away from Wagner - who can latter maybe claim to have been successful in Ukraine ( in some fashion )

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yesterday's ISW report had this fun tidbit:

If the RU mil bloggers are correct, this is the first indication I've seen that Ukraine has shifted any additional capacity to the Bakhmut area.

There was also mention that Russia is running out of ammo.  It's supposedly getting 13 trainloads from Belarus and is trying to get more from an unspecified number of other countries.  Good news, obviously.

Steve

Not sure what this means.  Maybe UKR has built up enough resources to finally get some relief to the poor dogs holding this front.  Maybe they see opportunity to knock out RU arty concentrations that haven't yet felt much heat.  Maybe were worried about some kind of RU breakthrough.

It'd be really funny to see the wagnerites be the next schmucks running away, though I doubt that's in the cards. 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

It's very likely that by January 21st we will have a Republican House that is going to be reaching for anything to beat up the administration. You can bet that this will come up again in a more virulent form. Just look at who's always just behind McCarthy when he's on tv now with a group of GOP House members. You'll understand when you see the pecking order.

Mid terms are still not certain, yet.  A lot can happen in a month. Even then, the Senate, both parties, is very pro UKR. A republican Congress can get its knickers in a twist all it wants,  but the Senate will stay the course. 

Edited October 12, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

8 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Not sure what this means.  Maybe UKR has built up enough resources to finally get some relief to the poor dogs holding this front.  Maybe they see opportunity to knock out RU arty concentrations that haven't yet felt much heat.  Maybe were worried about some kind of RU breakthrough.

It'd be really funny to see the wagnerites be the next schmucks running away, though I doubt that's in the cards. 

Wagner, like everything else in Putin's expeditionary army, is not what it was in Feb. I'd say they're like a lot of the other RUS formations -  hard, tough crust, but a brittle one, with insufficient reserves of "good"  infantry. Ukraine breaks through and I doubt a bunch of press ganged zeks are gonna hold the line terribly well. 

They're ripe for a good nutjob. 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Not sure what this means.  Maybe UKR has built up enough resources to finally get some relief to the poor dogs holding this front.  Maybe they see opportunity to knock out RU arty concentrations that haven't yet felt much heat.  Maybe were worried about some kind of RU breakthrough.

It'd be really funny to see the wagnerites be the next schmucks running away, though I doubt that's in the cards. 

or they just figure

1 Wagner are some of the few still semi useful Russian infantry and it is time to attrite them and/or

2. Significant casualties on Wagner would impact the current factional fighting to Ukraine's benefit.

[FancyCat]

Recall what Steve and others stated a few months ago that Ukraine would probably use the advantage of interior lines and the Russian supply constraints between the south and east of Ukraine to attrite the Russians and keep them from massing to smash the Ukrainians in one spot. Except for Kherson, mass there all you want.

Now that Russia is throwing everything into the eastern Kharkov front and Kherson, it's time for Ukraine to switch attention elsewhere.

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Fenris said:

 

Is there some point to the russians still trying to make it to Bakhmut?  They've been trying for while and events in other areas would seem to be more worthy of effort.

 

The blame game Prigozhin wants ti be able to look at the MOD and say "we TOOK our objective". It is all about the post Ukraine/post Putin power struggle, not least to be sure someone else gets the blame.

19 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Recall what Steve and others stated a few months ago that Ukraine would probably use the advantage of interior lines and the Russian supply constraints between the south and east of Ukraine to attrite the Russians and keep them from massing to smash the Ukrainians in one spot. Except for Kherson, mass there all you want.

Now that Russia is throwing everything into the eastern Kharkov front and Kherson, it's time for Ukraine to switch attention elsewhere.

I would think the defenses on the 2/24 lines to the east of Bakmuht would be almost impenetrable. But if they insist on getting ALL their infantry killed in more or less suicidal attacks anything is possible. 

 

This probably ISN'T possible, but punching thru the Russian lines between Donetsk and Luhansk, and then swinging south to Mariupol WOULD be a definitive war winning move, if they could hold it. it isn't like their are any men of fighting age left in the L/DPR to mount a hasty defense if they broke through the 2/24 trench lines.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, keas66 said:

One attempt at an  explanation for this I have seen  is Wagner keeping its forces in one area and seemingly "attacking" - but keeping them away from Kherson and Kremina . They don't want to be associated with areas that are likely to be lost and that keeps the blame on the Regular Russian Army and away from Wagner - who can latter maybe claim to have been successful in Ukraine ( in some fashion )

That's an interesting theory. 

Someone higher up to Wagner -> "I want you to go to Kherson"

Wagner -> "But we have to take Bakhmut because Putin will lose face otherwise.  So we're going to sit here and look busy while Kherson goes into the crapper.  Call our glorious leader if you want to.  Thanks for the offer anyway"

Yup, certainly has a ring of truth to it.  Going to Kherson is suicide for all who go there.  At least at Bakhmut they only lose what they want to.

Steve

[Offshoot]

Yesterdays UK MoD briefing covered similar ground more generally, talking about factional competition within the Russian MoD itself:

"Surovikin’ s appointment likely reflects an effort by the Russian national security community to improve the delivery of the operation.
However, he will likely have to contest with an increasingly factional Russian MOD which is poorly resourced to achieve the political objectives it has been set in Ukraine."

 

[Kinophile]

@Battlefront.com

Which helps lead to the thought that if UKR repels and then counter attacks Wagner,  that they'll squeal loudly, demanding (and getting) critical reserves from other parts of the RUS lines.  Once those units have been pulled/redirected away from ,  e.g. Luhansk,  then UKR attacks up there again,with better success. 

Use the fractionalism of the RUS force to mangle and corrupt its allocation of scarce resources. Seems sensible.  

Hell, I've done that in team boardgames.  Threaten the player likeliest to panic, they force oppos to reinforce them, then we kick in the door somewhere else. 

 

Edited October 12, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

It's really odd how an autocratic leader like Putin,  who relies on fear enforced by selective violence,  allows Prigozhin to build up an essentially independent power base with a (for Russia) professional fighting force, while undermining and denigrating his own national military force, including basically decentralising to the republics way more authority and involvement on original force generation. 

It's likely someone is going to turn on him and he seems to be gambling that someone else will de facto support him in automatic opposition to that attacker. 

It really feels like he's holding a bag of screaming, fighting cats, and is pulling them out in turn to throw against the UKR -  but at some point soon he's gonna pull out one cat thats gonna turn and claw his face off. And woe betide him when the cats realize that getting rid of him let's them all out of the bag...

We should watch for when Prigozhin starts publicly identifying with a particular region or city,  e.g. Petersburg,ala Kadyrov & Chechnya. That'll be a big alarm bell for me... 

Edited October 12, 2022 by Kinophile

[chrisl]

More evidence that it was a missile that hit the bridge: Reuters