How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[RockinHarry]

1 hour ago, hcrof said:

I think the point is that you need engineering equipment to breach these defenses, so they would be effective against the "dagger" style raids the UA is using. A prepared attack with engineering assets is easier to spot and disrupt with artillery so in principle I think these defenses can be effective.

how was it meant and to be dealt with in WW2? Slow down and fix enemy, then counterattack with a mighty reserve force (german WW2 siegfried line principle). Will be interesting seeing how UKR pulling this off. I´d guess finding a weak spot (or several), infiltrate or outflank this crap. Or ignore it entirely and kick russian butt elsewhere. Thus far russian fortification attempts didn´t help much it seems. Weren´t there any similar efforts made in Kharkiv and Cherson region?

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

For those scoffing at Russia preparing defences prompted by the Tweet showing a linear obstacle being created, I might suggest that many would say something along the lines of "they've had months to prepare defences but didn't bother ... how amateurish" had they not done so - in fact there are a bunch of posts to this effect on this thread regarding ground that Ukrainian forces have recently liberated.  Integrated obstacles are a key element of any deliberate defence and are as relevant in the 21st Century as they have been since the advent of warfare as I'm sure @The_Capt will pitch in and confirm.  If this debate is to remain informed, we need to beware the confirmation bias that is evident from this criticism of Russia preparing defences as well as other related influences.  Objective and informed analysis should be our watchwords.

As others said, you are quite right to point this out.  So as one of those who scoffed, let me go beyond that now and detail why I scoffed

There is nothing wrong with fortifications themselves.  Ukraine has successfully held onto a huge segment of its 2014-2022 line of contact in the Donbas because of it and created misery for the Russians along the segments it eventually lost.  The fortifications Russia is manning in the Kherson region are also proving tough for Ukraine to crack into.  The common element here is sufficient forces manning the fortifications who area also motivated to hold their ground.

The reason why I don't think the fortifications Russia is building in Luhansk will amount to anything is, simply put, they don't have anybody to effectively man them.  Even if they do manage to cobble together a group that is willing and able to fight for a time, all Ukraine has to do is go around it and boom... problem solved.  Izyum and Lyman being recent and high profile examples.

I suppose having fortifications for mobiks is better than nothing, but only just.  Ukraine finds a position using a drone or sat, hits it a bit, and the mobiks won't put up much of a fight anyway.

In conclusion, I hope I have now scoffed in an objective and informed way

Steve

[NamEndedAllen]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

I break it down this this way: 

1. Is he still trying to win? (Yes)

2. Does a NATO entry help him win? (No)

3. If NATO enters and he loses, does that let him off the hook domestically? (No)

4. If he wanted NATO in would he have done so already? (Yes)

5. Would it be easy to bring NATO in? (Very)

Until the answer to questions 1 or 2 start to change, you can bet he's not looking for NATO entry.

Good points. I am still seeing the recent Russian overt and covert aggressive actions as the mirror of Ukraine’s successful blowing past apparent Russian red lines. Like Ukraine, Putin pushing past putative red lines before they are unmistakably etched in public increases his options for future attacks. The covert cyber and other attacks on USA and European nations, the overt strikes against Kyiv and important *civilian* infrastructure, all WITHOUT quick punishing NATO responses grants him desperately needed increases in his cramped option space. The former also attempts to continue his campaign against the emotions of the West’s civilian populations and their willingness to support the war.

[Billy Ringo]

Do those fortifications have heaters installed?  Winter is going to make them even more untenable than they already are. 

On a more serious note, Putin is launching a lot of expensive and depleted missiles lately at less than significant military targets which is forcing Ukraine to use up valuable missile defense weapons. 

The west seems to be expediting air defense capabilities with an urgency to re-supply and improve Ukraine's ability to counter.   Are those missile defense weapons capable of taking out an incoming nuke?  Is it possible the US/EU know something and those anti-missile weapons are being urgently delivered to counter something more than what's already being launched? 

 

[Zeleban]

Funny story. A Buryat stole an outdoor video camera in Liman and brought it home, for some reason he put the camera in his apartment. But the camera continued to broadcast to the former owner. Thus, the Buryat broadcast his private life to the network.

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Elon Musk denied the report from VICE. The thing is VICE is reporting that Ian Bremmer stated this, including that he spoke to Elon Musk who informed him about talking to Putin. So guess it's a question of who's lying.

Yes! Plus we always need to keep in mind that Musk is a person with an autism disorder. While high functioning his condition is prone to all sorts of social problems in communication and understanding others. And he is a billionaire. This is somewhat akin in the financial and increasingly in the political world, to the threat of unstable autocrats with nuclear weapons.
https://www.newsweek.com/asperger-syndrome-elon-musk-autism-spectrum-disorder-1590043

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Putin's mistake was promoting reasons for starting the war that could only be satisfied by an outright defeat and occupation of Ukraine. This is why long time Putin watchers, like me, were so surprised that a full scale war with a plethora of vague goals was Plan A.  It offered Putin almost no room to back down even before the first shot was fired.  Very unlike Putin.

Steve

And now there is no good way out. Even withdrawing entirely from Ukraine will not erase the massive crimes against humanity we see committed by Russia.
Nor will it in any way make Putin’s Russian political life suddenly fantastic.

Nor will all the sanctions disappear over night.

Nor will it resolve the demands for reparations for the immense destruction wrought in Ukraine.

Nor will it instantaneously end the constant over the top domestic media bloodthirsty hype for smashing the so-called “ungrateful little brothers in Russia’s own Ukraine.” 
 

[Probus]

11 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Video of HIMARS strike on Russian military convoy

How can you tell the difference between a GMLRS rocket and an Excalibur round?  Is it the fireball when it hits?

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

Musk's legal team was able to get in his office long enough to explain how large his exposure on this thing might be. That is my guess anyway. 

The other way to look at this, and this is PURE speculation on my part, Is that Musk is acting in coordination with the U.S. government, and is being used as a direct channel to Putin. I am quite sure that a more direct indication of Putin's mental state, and the ability to get some unfiltered communication through his bubble would be highly valued. I repeat, pure speculation

That's not happening. Musk is unstable, insecure as hell and has his own interests that he clearly puts above any national interest. I am quite sure they watch him closely but there is no way they use him as an interlocutor.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Normally I take the word of guys who build electric cars and super cool spaceships over a politicians' word, but in this case... I gotta go with Bremmer on this one.

Musk is the sort of guy we should all be glad to have making stuff, but also glad we don't have to hang out with.

Steve

Bremmer is a bit of a jackass but I've never heard of him lying about something of this import. I believe him.

[kevinkin]

Maybe this was posted, but once again:

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-captures-russian-tanks-fleet-size/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

“Russia is trying to maintain its status as the largest supplier of military equipment for the Ukrainian army.”

[Probus]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

In conclusion, I hope I have now scoffed in an objective and informed way

Steve

Hah! +1

[acrashb]

And now for some Russo-Ukraine war humour.  How not to carry your stolen macbook:

2022 Darwin Award: Steel Macbook Armor (darwinawards.com)

 

Edited October 11, 2022 by acrashb

[TOG]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

A good example of this is 10x Russian T-72B3 attacking a Ukrainian position without any tanks.  Someone who doesn't understand how war works at the tactical level would probably conclude "well, Ukraine will lose this battle big time".  For veteran Combat Mission players the answer should be "I don't have enough information.  What's the terrain?  Time of day?  How many Javelins and NLAWs do the Ukrainians have?  Do the Russians have any infantry?  Are the Russians fighting with crews that were put together yesterday, or were these guys all from the same prewar units?"

Steve

Maybe something you could consider adding to CM games. Not only experience and motivation, but also unit coherence that could for example modify the speed of sharing info with other squads or have some other interesting effects on unit performance. 

It would probably be most useful in some kind of operational campaigns that would allow for replacements or joining squads. 

[Gpig]

I feel like that can already be simulated in CM, when units are out of connection with their CO (and why I always try so hard to keep my units in command, because they are notably less able when out of command).

19 minutes ago, TOG said:

Maybe something you could consider adding to CM games. Not only experience and motivation, but also unit coherence that could for example modify the speed of sharing info with other squads or have some other interesting effects on unit performance.

Though you may be asking for a higher degree of dysfunction?

Edited October 11, 2022 by Gpig

[Zeleban]

I hope you remember this 52 year old housewife? There was an article about her in the Times at the very beginning of the war.

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

I hope you remember this 52 year old housewife? There was an article about her in the Times at the very beginning of the war.

I feel totally emasculated... in a good way.

[TOG]

14 minutes ago, Gpig said:

I feel like that can already be simulated in CM, when units are out of connection with their CO (and why I always try so hard to keep my units in command, because they are notably less able when out of command).

Though you may be asking for a higher degree of dysfunction?

After thinking about it, probably it is too much fuss for small effect. Using lower experience will work just fine. 

[kevinkin]

36 minutes ago, TOG said:

Not only experience and motivation

So in Combat Mission scenario design terms and very open to the author's feel for the battle:
Experience
H2H
Ukraine = Elite
Russia = Conscript

Ukraine vs Russia AI
Ukraine = Elite
Russia = Regular

Motivation
H2H
Ukraine = Fanatic
Russia = Poor

Ukraine vs Russia AI
Ukraine = Fanatic
Russia = Normal

?

[MikeyD]

Most recently Russia would be best represented by CMSF2 'fighters' with no command structure, no training, no unit cohesion, etc.

[kevinkin]

Ah ... been a while since I used them ... just need to get them to crew vehicles to drive Charles' AI programing bonkers. 

[Lethaface]

17 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

What I cannot foresee is how the eyes of at least 50 nations that are backing Ukraine in so many ways EXCEPT for having their own populations ravaged and in most cases their cities as well will be able to stomach the enormity of more and more mass graves, the dead children, the civilians murdered in cold blood, the attempt at genocide by seizing Ukraine’s children and murdering those who do not profess to loyalty to Russia. Much of these crimes against humanity were committed in WWII as well. But that was a different world than today. And the Allied nations are not themselves experiencing by the millions the killing and being killed, and the knowledge that they too committed crimes well beyond the rules of war. How will the instantaneous evidence in color and sound broadcast worldwide via a hugely more influential media of how Russia has raped and butchered Ukraine be emotionally overcome, without that war experience and self knowledge?  The nations of Europe and America have embraced human rights and compassion far more widely and formally than before and immediately after WWII. Once the spectacle of a determined attempt at the genocide of one of the largest countries in Europe is seen in its fullness, how will the rest of the citizens not on this forum wish to co-exist with Russia? And that does not even begin to consider what may be a snarling, angry humiliated but intact Russia. In their coming internal agonies, so long as it is an intact sovereign people, will it welcome any embrace by those who have drove it down?

Lastly, after WWII we had an instant NEW powerful enemy of democracy - the Soviet Union. That threat, so quickly turning into the threat of nuclear Armageddon without doubt accelerated both the formal and the informal welcome into the community of democratic nations.  It unless we manage to turn China into an equally vivid nightmare of the End Of The World, Russia will not have that wind behind its back. Even so, remember too that Japan has had a very difficult time even simply saying, “I’m sorry” to Korea. 
 

Maybe I am wrong. Maybe today’s people are quickly distracted by the next iPhone, by the next scandal, by the next celebrity breakup to give a good crap about the enormity of what has happened. Maybe the insulation of the world from the reality within Ukraine will do the trick for Russia, and citizens in most nations will not really care about the future relations with Russia  - as we and our circles do. As long as gas prices go back down, and fuel for heating homes and feeding industry is plentiful, let bygones be bygones. But I have a feeling Ukraine’s new voice in the world will not let that happen. They have not only suffered and endured and are overcoming. They have learned a tremendous amount in the course of this war. That includes not only fighting in combat, but for world opinion. And I do believe that voice will ensure that it has a quite large vote in Russia’s future and how the world perceives it.

 

no comment

[sburke]

17 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

Most recently Russia would be best represented by CMSF2 'fighters' with no command structure, no training, no unit cohesion, etc.

but we need a washing machine flavor item for sure

[FancyCat]

A update to the Elon Musk stuff.

 

 

[Kinophile]

Storm in a teacup.