How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Tux]

Yes, as we know Russian propaganda has already used NATO involvement as at least a partial ‘excuse’ for poor performance to-date, despite the history of claiming they could flatten NATO on a whim.

The problem is, as some have said before, ‘even Russians don’t really believe Russian propaganda’.  Real footage of real NATO forces actually openly getting involved though?  Withdraw what’s left of the armed forces (seven before they actually arrive) and cry foul play, deception and murderous intent…

Anyway, I’m going to step back from the precipice of under-informed Muskian hubris and enjoy reading the ongoing gift that is this thread.

As you were.

[FancyCat]

Elon Musk denied the report from VICE. The thing is VICE is reporting that Ian Bremmer stated this, including that he spoke to Elon Musk who informed him about talking to Putin. So guess it's a question of who's lying.

[Tux]

9 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Yes, I'm sure about 1. What's happened is that Putin recognized that his Plan A was badly fit to purpose and needed be revised...for now. He then pulled back from Kyiv and he tried to envelope the rest of Luhansk and Donetsk. With Kherson, Zaporzhzhia, Donetsk and Lugansk in hand, he would have then been able to call a ceasefire, freeze the conflict and reload for another try later. That was sellable to his regime supporters. Ukraine blew that up by putting Kherson under pressure and then taking back 10,000+ sq km's of territory. Worse, Ukraine demonstrated that a frozen conflict actually goes their way because the war as it currently stands will lead to a successive series of territory losses for Moscow. Putin cannot accept that state of things without ultimately losing his head/position. Hence the recourse to nuclear threats. He's still trying to get back to a ceasefire that will let him out of the box he's in. 

Also, from the Russian perspective NATO is already in the war by proxy. If it were easy for Putin to lay off the problem on NATO intervention then why hasn't he already? Because he can't.

 

I recognise and agree with that narrative. For sure he has turned down better off-ramps in the past.  What does he really think he can achieve *now*, though?  There doesn’t seem to be any reason for even Putin to think his military campaign is still salvageable…

But Occam’s razor, etc. I think you’re probably right.

[dan/california]

Just now, FancyCat said:

Elon Musk denied the report from VICE. The thing is VICE is reporting that Ian Bremmer stated this, including that he spoke to Elon Musk who informed him about talking to Putin. So guess it's a question of who's lying.

Musk's legal team was able to get in his office long enough to explain how large his exposure on this thing might be. That is my guess anyway. 

The other way to look at this, and this is PURE speculation on my part, Is that Musk is acting in coordination with the U.S. government, and is being used as a direct channel to Putin. I am quite sure that a more direct indication of Putin's mental state, and the ability to get some unfiltered communication through his bubble would be highly valued. I repeat, pure speculation

[FancyCat]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Musk's legal team was able to get in his office long enough to explain how large his exposure on this thing might be. That is my guess anyway. 

The other way to look at this, and this is PURE speculation on my part, Is that Musk is acting in coordination with the U.S. government, and is being used as a direct channel to Putin. I am quite sure that a more direct indication of Putin's mental state, and the ability to get some unfiltered communication through his bubble would be highly valued. I repeat, pure speculation

Maybe but doubtful, there are other people who can do that who aren't as foot in mouth as Elon Musk.

[sburke]

When viewed from space Elon musk’s ego causes a minor eclipse of Zelensky’s balls, but only briefly. 

[danfrodo]

37 minutes ago, Tux said:

I recognise and agree with that narrative. For sure he has turned down better off-ramps in the past.  What does he really think he can achieve *now*, though?  There doesn’t seem to be any reason for even Putin to think his military campaign is still salvageable…

But Occam’s razor, etc. I think you’re probably right.

Putin needs to salvage something from this disaster, namely enough territory to spin it as victory.  To do this he needs UKR to stop winning on the ground.  This can only happen by Ukraine's allies stopping aid and pressuring Ukraine.  The exact opposite of that is happening w Putin's escalations.  Putin needs to freeze this conflict and get to the negotiating table w an abandoned Ukraine that is out of options -- but instead every time Putin escalates EU & US do more, not less, for Ukraine.    

Edited October 11, 2022 by danfrodo
addition

[Seedorf81]

Turkey's minister of defence: "Russia ready for cease-fire".

Crimea, as mentioned by a lot of people already, seems to be Putin's last straw..

 

 

[Tux]

12 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Putin needs to freeze this conflict and get to the negotiating table w an abandoned Ukraine that is out of options -- but instead every time Putin escalates EU & US do more, not less, for Ukraine.    

And if he’s surprised when that happens every time then maybe I’m wrong and the guy is just an idiot. 

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Turkey's minister of defence: "Russia ready for cease-fire".

Crimea, as mentioned by a lot of people already, seems to be Putin's last straw..

 

 

I suspect he can have that cease fire as soon as he goes back to feb 22 borders.  Like WW1 & WW2, it's up to the occupier to leave if it wants to end the war.  

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Elon Musk denied the report from VICE. The thing is VICE is reporting that Ian Bremmer stated this, including that he spoke to Elon Musk who informed him about talking to Putin. So guess it's a question of who's lying.

Normally I take the word of guys who build electric cars and super cool spaceships over a politicians' word, but in this case... I gotta go with Bremmer on this one.

Musk is the sort of guy we should all be glad to have making stuff, but also glad we don't have to hang out with.

Steve

[Seedorf81]

13 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I suspect he can have that cease fire as soon as he goes back to feb 22 borders.  Like WW1 & WW2, it's up to the occupier to leave if it wants to end the war.  

Yes, I agree. But I think he is gonna be a hard-*** on Crimea.

It's like the monkey grabbing candy from a glass jar. When taking the candy in his fist, he cannot get his hand out anymore. There's only two solutions: give up the candy (Putin giving everything back), or hit the jar on a rock so it breaks (further fighting and/or nukes).

Monkeys are smart enough to let the candy go..

Edited October 11, 2022 by Seedorf81

[RandomCommenter]

11 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I suspect he can have that cease fire as soon as he goes back to feb 22 borders.  Like WW1 & WW2, it's up to the occupier to leave if it wants to end the war.  

I'm not so sure Ukraine would accept Feb 22 borders. Methinks they will insist on Feb 14 borders for a ceasefire.

This is a once in 50 year opportunity for Ukraine to get their territorial integrity back. And future security and NATO membership hinge on that.

So unfortunately, since there is no way Russia is ready to accept these terms yet, I think this war has another 6-12 months to go with all the horrific suffering and loss of life that entails.

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Yes, I agree. But I think he is gonna be a hard-*** on Crimea.

It's like the monkey grabbing candy from a glass jar. When taking the candy in his fist, he cannot get his hand out anymore. There's only two solutions: give up the candy (Putin giving everything back), or hit the jar on a rock so it breaks (further fighting and/or nukes).

Monkeys are smart enough to let the candy go..

I am so jealous I didn't write this.  It's perfect.  thx.  

[FancyCat]

In the EU realm, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy made a speech to EU ambassadors, emphasizing the changing world, the multipolarity of competition and the loss of Western influence worldwide, most notably in Africa.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Tux said:

I recognise and agree with that narrative. For sure he has turned down better off-ramps in the past.  What does he really think he can achieve *now*, though?  There doesn’t seem to be any reason for even Putin to think his military campaign is still salvageable…

Putin's mistake was promoting reasons for starting the war that could only be satisfied by an outright defeat and occupation of Ukraine. This is why long time Putin watchers, like me, were so surprised that a full scale war with a plethora of vague goals was Plan A.  It offered Putin almost no room to back down even before the first shot was fired.  Very unlike Putin.

Steve

[FancyCat]

If the world is changing where the West is no longer on top, it really is time Europe gets its collective head together and realize a state that pays so much in blood for the prospect of joining it, should be supported till that goal is achieved.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, RandomCommenter said:

I'm not so sure Ukraine would accept Feb 22 borders. Methinks they will insist on Feb 14 borders for a ceasefire.

I think Ukraine would accept a Feb 22 border withdrawal and a ceasefire without preconditions other than to stop shooting at each other.  Ukraine could reoccupy a huge chunk of land at no cost and still give them the option to fight for the 2014 stolen territory.  Which is one reason Putin will never do such a withdrawal and ceasefire offer.  He knows it doesn't buy him anything but a bullet to the brain.  There is no way he'd survive ordering a withdrawal and ceasefire on those terms.

Steve

[Combatintman]

For those scoffing at Russia preparing defences prompted by the Tweet showing a linear obstacle being created, I might suggest that many would say something along the lines of "they've had months to prepare defences but didn't bother ... how amateurish" had they not done so - in fact there are a bunch of posts to this effect on this thread regarding ground that Ukrainian forces have recently liberated.  Integrated obstacles are a key element of any deliberate defence and are as relevant in the 21st Century as they have been since the advent of warfare as I'm sure @The_Capt will pitch in and confirm.  If this debate is to remain informed, we need to beware the confirmation bias that is evident from this criticism of Russia preparing defences as well as other related influences.  Objective and informed analysis should be our watchwords.

Edited October 11, 2022 by Combatintman

[acrashb]

29 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Normally I take the word of guys who build electric cars and super cool spaceships over a politicians' word, but in this case... I gotta go with Bremmer on this one.

Musk is the sort of guy we should all be glad to have making stuff, but also glad we don't have to hang out with.

For some insight into what motivates him, this apparently candid interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvGnw1sHh9M

But yeah, he needs to learn when to shut up.  The SEC agreed with this some time ago.  Being a remarkable businessman doesn't necessarily qualify people for other domains, any more than does being an actor (Schwarzenegger aside  ).

Musk has gone from early hero to mid-stage zero - we'll see what happens next.

19 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

In the EU realm, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy made a speech to EU ambassadors, emphasizing the changing world, the multipolarity of competition and the loss of Western influence worldwide, most notably in Africa.

I have often described Europe's institutions as "sclerotic" (no offense to our European posters, it's not about you, and the rest of the Western world has its own, similar, issues). One positive effect of the Russo-Ukraine war's shock treatment is to clean out the pipes to a large degree, and I think this will last for a generation.  To all of our benefit.

Edited October 11, 2022 by acrashb

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

For those scoffing at Russia preparing defences prompted by the Tweet showing a linear obstacle being created, I might suggest that many would say something along the lines of "they've had months to prepare defences but didn't bother ... how amateurish" had they not done so - in fact there are a bunch of posts to this effect on this thread regarding ground that Ukrainian forces have recently liberated.  Integrated obstacles are a key element of any deliberate defence and are as relevant in the 21st Century as they have been since the advent of warfare as I'm sure @The_Capt will pitch in and confirm.  If this debate is to remain informed, we need to beware the confirmation bias that is evident from this criticism of Russia preparing defences as well as other related influences.  Objective and informed analysis should be our watchwords.

You are of course correct. And just attempting to pay attention would be a far better performance that the Russians put in in Kharkiv. The next question is can The Ukrainians find a another spot the Russians couldn't cover adequately, or do they have to do the next attack the hard way.

 

Edit: The very best scenario for the next round would be a whole unit surrendering and letting the Ukrainians hit the ruzzian rear areas at a dead run. They seem to be working the angle as hard as they can with the surrender hotline and so on.

Edited October 11, 2022 by dan/california

[sross112]

7 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

For those scoffing at Russia preparing defences prompted by the Tweet showing a linear obstacle being created, I might suggest that many would say something along the lines of "they've had months to prepare defences but didn't bother ... how amateurish" had they not done so - in fact there are a bunch of posts to this effect on this thread regarding ground that Ukrainian forces have recently liberated.  Integrated obstacles are a key element of any deliberate defence and are as relevant in the 21st Century as they have been since the advent of warfare as I'm sure @The_Capt will pitch in and confirm.  If this debate is to remain informed, we need to beware the confirmation bias that is evident from this criticism of Russia preparing defences as well as other related influences.  Objective and informed analysis should be our watchwords.

I figure anything is probably better than nothing, but obstacles not covered by fire are not obstacles. So this is where the mobilization is most likely thought to come into play. There is still an impossibly long front for the RA to cover with what it has. If it wants to put up a solid defensive line along the whole front a few hundred thousand more troops are necessary. I bet the high command thinks that the mobiks will be able to man a foxhole after their short training and that is why we are seeing the mobilization. 

Of course the additional manpower requires additional support and supply from their already overburdened logistics. A lack of support, supply, training and equipment results in lots of casualties from enemy action and mother nature, which in turn creates a heavier burden raising more replacement troops and equipment, wash, rinse, repeat. I just don't see how this works for the RA. With the predicament they have managed to get themselves into, I don't see a better plan other than leave either.

[Kinophile]

17 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

For those scoffing at Russia preparing defences prompted by the Tweet showing a linear obstacle being created, I might suggest that many would say something along the lines of "they've had months to prepare defences but didn't bother ... how amateurish" had they not done so - in fact there are a bunch of posts to this effect on this thread regarding ground that Ukrainian forces have recently liberated.  Integrated obstacles are a key element of any deliberate defence and are as relevant in the 21st Century as they have been since the advent of warfare as I'm sure @The_Capt will pitch in and confirm.  If this debate is to remain informed, we need to beware the confirmation bias that is evident from this criticism of Russia preparing defences as well as other related influences.  Objective and informed analysis should be our watchwords.

Quote right.  I deleted a silly post that just added to the knee-jerk reaction.  I can do better... 

[BlackMoria]

Yes, objective and informed analysis should be our watchwords.... I agree.   If that is an anti-tank ditch and the forward infantry / vehicle dig ins are supposed to be in that tree line, the damn ditch is too damn close to the defensive works.  An anti-tank ditch needs to be close enough that it can be covered by supporting and directed fires from the defensive works but far enough out that the defenders can rain indirect fire from artillery or mortars on the heads of the attackers trying to win past the obstacle belt.   The ditch is ... what... about 100 metres from the treeline, there abouts. Far too close for indirect fire without suppressing or inflicting casualties on your own forces, give the inaccuracy of Russian artillery.

Properly prepared defenses are still a necessary component of the defense in the 21st century.   But the emphasis in on the word 'properly'.  My combat engineer buddy would look at that video and shake his head.

[Combatintman]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

You are of course correct. And just attempting to pay attention would be a far better performance that the Russians put in in Kharkiv. The next question is can The Ukrainians find a another spot the Russians couldn't cover adequately, or do they have to do the next attack the hard way.

The joy of these obstacles is that, as the footage shows, they can be easily found.  That is a starter for ten for your ISR plan because you then look at the ground, known or assessed enemy strength in the area, the opposition's equipment capabilities, defensive doctrine and also apply the principles of defence as a gross error check.  It is pretty easy from a combination of those factors to come up with some workable NAIs to find the whole defensive laydown - or at least enough of it to identify the weak spots and the location of any mobile reserve or counter penetration force.

Edited October 11, 2022 by Combatintman