How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

Kyrgyzstan cancels Russian-led military drill on its land (msn.com)
 

Quote

 

The Central Asian nation of Kyrgyzstan on Sunday unilaterally cancelled joint military drills between the six nations comprising the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), less than a day before they were due to start on its territory.

The Kyrgyz defense ministry did not specify the reason for cancelling the “Indestructible Brotherhood-2022” command and staff exercises, which were set to be held in the country's windswept eastern highlands Monday to Friday.

 

"Indestructible Brotherhood" - What a perfect name for the exercise.

Edited October 9, 2022 by sburke

[Battlefront.com]

  

9 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

The direction of the propaganda strike against Ukraine is becoming more and more obvious. We urgently need to stop Ukraine, otherwise it will destroy the whole world.

Flynn is a well known Russian useful idiot, at best.  He is a poster child example of why the US military needs to add a new psychological evaluation before giving people bumps in rank.  Sadly. there are others.  Macgregor, of course, is well known to us here.

Steve

[RockinHarry]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

BTR-4 takes out T-80 with the mounted ATGM

49°31'46.0"N 37°55'36.6"

All for themselves, none for Putler. But I can well understand the attitude of these poor guys. It´s hard these days remembering they´re all humans (too), want living, seeing their families again. I´d really wish this Kremlin scum taking some Novichok or polonium tea, this years xmas at the latest.

Edited October 9, 2022 by RockinHarry

[Zeleban]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

  

Flynn is a well known Russian useful idiot, at best.  He is a poster child example of why the US military needs to add a new psychological evaluation before giving people bumps in rank.  Sadly. there are others.  Macgregor, of course, is well known to us here.

Steve

 

[RockinHarry]

58 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Soldiers of the 93rd mechanized brigade entered the positions of the Russians near Soledar and took prisoners

Who makes defensive positions in such a terrain?? But at least they help UKR to trap and take prisoners more easily.

[Probus]

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

To sum up: new (first?) general commander on Ukrainian front is civilians killer who personally (!) shed blood in Moscow in 1991, corrupted officer who allowed diedovshchina to spread in his units, rather unsuccessfull commander and - interesting fact- another friend of Don Don Kadyrov. The last one is only thing that make him different from crowd of Russian high officer corps.

This is bittersweet news. As long as Russian commanders are expending resources trying to kill Ukrainian civilians, those resources are not being used to take out strategic military targets. That’s the sweet part. The bitter part is, of course, more civilian Ukrainian targets are hit.

[Probus]

3 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

Honestly, I’m a big fan of what Elon Musk is doing in the space flight arena, but I wish he would SHUT UP about Ukraine!  You can’t be an expert at everything Elon. 

[akd]

4 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

How can these idiots not see that if Russia’s threats succeed, the risk of nuclear war in future increases exponentially? Making sure these threats fail, and that Russia knows that everything gets worse for them if they employ nuclear weapons is the only hope for maintaining the “taboo” against their use beyond existential defense of the homeland.

[LongLeftFlank]

8 minutes ago, Probus said:

Honestly, I’m a big fan of what Elon Musk is doing in the space flight arena, but I wish he would SHUT UP about Ukraine!  You can’t be an expert at everything Elon. 

Yeah, given the brilliance and moxie the Ukrainians have shown, I have no trouble imagining them founding a thriving electric vehicle and commercial space industry, and then happily putting Elon out of business.

Living well is the best revenge.

 

Edited October 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[RockinHarry]

1 minute ago, Probus said:

Honestly, I’m a big fan of what Elon Musk is doing in the space flight arena, but I wish he would SHUT UP about Ukraine!  You can’t be an expert at everything Elon. 

Exactly. As just running space x and likely beeing first to fly a human to Mars is not enough. Typical rich get bored and still can´t have enough. Just like Trump wanted beeing president for the challenge but not the responsibility (but himself). But still one of Putler´s greatest strokes putting one his payroll guys straight onto the White House´s biggest chair. Kudos.... though for nothing else.

[LongLeftFlank]

Just now, RockinHarry said:

Exactly. As just running space x and likely beeing first to fly a human to Mars is not enough. Typical rich get bored and still can´t have enough. Just like Trump wanted beeing president for the challenge but not the responsibility (but himself). But still one of Putler´s greatest strokes putting one his payroll guys straight onto the White House´s biggest chair. Kudos.... though for nothing else.

Oh cripes, don't go there.

[OldSarge]

39 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

The direction of the propaganda strike against Ukraine is becoming more and more obvious. We urgently need to stop Ukraine, otherwise it will destroy the whole world.

Flynn is a disgrace, in the same ranks as Ritter and MacGregor. The fact that anyone takes their opinion seriously is bewildering. I think these guys appeal to the 'low information' types who consume news as a form of snack food.

[LongLeftFlank]

OK, before we totally turn turtle into the ditch of US politics, here's some shiny new Bridge Theory whodunnit stuff, courtesy of ChrisO, who is on my daily 'check in' list now.

 

Still in the category of RUMINT, but the Russian source theorising could be as revealing as whether this bloke is actually the saboteur/martyr/dupe.

[RockinHarry]

17 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Oh cripes, don't go there.

Meant to say that Elon is likely aiming for some political career in not to distant future. But since he already kind of ruined this prospect, I have little fear for that.

[sburke]

Europe’s new ‘Iron Lady’ Kaja Kallas says the West mustn’t negotiate with Putin (msn.com)

[poesel]

This is a comment from another forum, and as an engineer I think this is totally correct:

The rail bridge was engulfed in a high intensity fire for hours. This will most likely have compromised the steel inside the concrete beams. Those bridge elements usually consist of prestressed concrete, meaning concrete that contains steel cables under tension when poured. This gives the elements stability and rigidity. In a high intensity fire those cables heat up which leads to the tension being released. Even after cooling, the tension is gone. The elements might look ok, but their load baring capabilities are most likely severely compromised.

TL;DR: rail bridge is ****ed. Good luck sending heavy trains over it

 

Edit: just found out I don't have to add the **** myself

Edited October 9, 2022 by poesel

[LongLeftFlank]

5 minutes ago, poesel said:

This is a comment from another forum, and as an engineer I think this is totally correct:

The rail bridge was engulfed in a high intensity fire for hours. This will most likely have compromised the steel inside the concrete beams. Those bridge elements usually consist of prestressed concrete, meaning concrete that contains steel cables under tension when poured. This gives the elements stability and rigidity. In a high intensity fire those cables heat up which leads to the tension being released. Even after cooling, the tension is gone. The elements might look ok, but their load baring capabilities are most likely severely compromised.

TL;DR: rail bridge is ****ed. Good luck sending heavy trains over it

 

Edit: just found out I don't have to add the **** myself

Seems entirely possible... look at that sag. 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

For those worried about Luka reopening a third front against Kyiv or Lviv.... The Free Belarus legion might be able to take Minsk with those upgraded Slovene T55s in a month.

 

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

  

Flynn is a well known Russian useful idiot, at best.  He is a poster child example of why the US military needs to add a new psychological evaluation before giving people bumps in rank.  Sadly. there are others.  Macgregor, of course, is well known to us here.

Steve

Couldn't resist.

 

[keas66]

I'm enjoying some of these "Historical" unit reviews :

 

[sross112]

New Perun video on force generation and logistic sustainment. LTG Ben Hodges has good contributions and a lot of what is said coincides with things we have discussed here.

Suggestion: Hodges/Mattis 2024?

[FancyCat]

Ukraine continues to emphasize respect for international humanitarian law. Bonus points to Ukraine for emphasizing that the Russian elite seek to return to their Western properties and fun.

 

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

OK, before we totally turn turtle into the ditch of US politics, here's some shiny new Bridge Theory whodunnit stuff, courtesy of ChrisO, who is on my daily 'check in' list now.

 

Still in the category of RUMINT, but the Russian source theorising could be as revealing as whether this bloke is actually the saboteur/martyr/dupe.

Are they saying that the "last two points" that could have taken 30 minutes to traverse but took 6 hours are the ones from Midnight to almost 6 am?  I think there's a very simple explanation for that that doesn't require the driver to be connected to any conspiracy.

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

1. Supply lines.

Besides the rail lines, notice that coastal superhighway.

2.  Defenses.  So, I find this a little odd....

a.  If your 'bridgehead' has shrunk to this, what's the point?  Just withdraw to the south bank.

b.  If your purpose is to deter a UA coup de main to seize the dam, then you'd better keep those trenches properly manned.  Otherwise, haven't you just made it *easier*, not harder, for a small crack force to come in, take and hold it against counterattack, by obligingly digging positions for them?

My opinion of Russian competence is a low as anyone's, but even they seem to understand that 155 range to Nova Khahovka is the only thing that really matters. Their current defensive line appears to have been selected with this exact factor in mind. As soon as they get pushed from any major portion of it, and standard 155 shells start raining on Nova Khahovka the Russian position in the northern part of the pocket is untenable. They will be South of the Inhulets in days. Any defenses around Nova Khahovka proper are pure copium.

2 hours ago, RockinHarry said:

Meant to say that Elon is likely aiming for some political career in not to distant future. But since he already kind of ruined this prospect, I have little fear for that.

Musk was not born in the U.S. and therefore cannot be President. I doubt there is any other political job he wants.

[Artkin]

I dont think it was the truck. The truck was already driving UP the ramp when it exploded, but the damage was further back. 

I'm betting on a boat