How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grossman]

1 hour ago, Probus said:

Thanks Huba.  I was looking for these numbers.  I was under the impression that HE Anti-personnel HIMARS rounds were being delivered.  Does anyone have any info on this?

The info I have is that 4 HIMARS are in the package

https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-625-million-us-military-aid-package-expected-to-include-4-himars

[FancyCat]

I really hope this is faked by Ukraine otherwise, you know I feel like Ukrainian resolve might just bulldoze it's way into Crimea based on outrages like this alone.

 

[Zeleban]

 

[Grigb]

interesting RUMINT-opinion of state of RU rear.

Quote

"There is another important factor of this war, that many military bloggers forget about. All [bloggers]!

It is the protection of the rear and [lines of] communications of the fighting army. It does not exists, at all. There are no roadblocks, there are no full-fledged internal security units, there are no OBRON [brigade sized tactical Rosguard unit]. The units of the Rosgvardiya and the LDPR Internal Security troops, which should be doing it, are at the front lines, due to the lack of infantry.

Two of my comrades, officers from reserve special forces of Internal Security (lieutenant colonel and major) drove through two republics from Mariupol to Severodonetsk, did not have their documents checked at any of the checkpoints, it was enough to show the cover of the passport of the Russian Federation, no checks of the car, not once... And there are no roadblocks as such...Checkpoints at the entrance to settlements (they could be easily bypassed) consisting of a maximum of three 18, or 60-year-old fighters armed with AK-74...

And the attack on the rear columns becomes regular (the columns move without protection and escort, a lot of single vehicles) the enemy begins to like it a lot, their teachers are excellent... According to the assessment of these officers, in 3-4 months the situation in the rear will become critical for the supply of our troops, and in 6-7 months it will become impossible to supply troops without losing 70%-80% of the cargo.

The guys returned home gathered former colleagues and decided to form a battalion of the Internal Security (commandant [battalion]) based on the BARS. At the moment it is fully staffed with officers (officers of the IS, OMON, SOBR), the majors agree to serve as simple platoon leaders, they have a huge authority, people went to them, ordinary sergeants, already more than a company.

They turned to the leadership, but they were immediately offered to form a rifle battalion instead of guards of the rear, since there is a wild shortage of infantry. The protection of the rear is entrusted to the Interior Ministry of the LDPR, but 85% of their personnel are also at the front lines.

And if we take into account that when the mobilized will spend a week, in cold trenches flooded with knee-deep water, they will be impressed with such a life, so they will just stand on skis [means run away extremely quicly], I will not talk about the zeks of musicians, there will be no one to stop them.

You know, I'm not a boaster, but unfortunately, I was not mistaken in any of my forecasts for the development of the situation... I am skilled in it - in the protection of the rear and the fight against the enemy's Recon and Sabotage groups, I did it in Chechnya, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Uganda. The command will start caring about it when it is too late to fix it.

There will be no UAVs, there will be no medicine, communications, optics, equipment, all of these will burn on the roadsides of Novorossiya...

 

[Bulletpoint]

14 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I really hope this is faked by Ukraine otherwise, you know I feel like Ukrainian resolve might just bulldoze it's way into Crimea based on outrages like this alone.

 

Who knows what the truth is here.. But I think if they really started pulling out hundreds (?) of people's gold teeth, I think they wouldn't just put them in a plastic box and forget about them... Even if they didn't manage to flee, you'd expect that gold to be found stuffed away hidden in their belongings somewhere.

[Grigb]

8 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

Quite a battle, yes. 

[akd]

44 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Some words about UKR units participating in offensive:

Arkhanhelske (liberated completely on 3rd of Oct) and Starosilske (today) - 129th TD brigade (Kryvyi Rih)

Velyka Oleksandrivka - 7th battalion "Arey" of UDA (Ukrainian Volunteer Army led by Dmytro Yarosh). "Battalions" of UDA and DUK RIght Sector volunteer formations are indeed reinforced large companies

Davydiv Brid - some battalion of 35th Marines brigade

Novopetrivka - 60th infantry brigade (knowingly about 2 KIA during liberation)

Myroliubivka and probably Berislav road - 128th mountain-assault brigade

 

Looks like the 73rd Naval SOC is also involved:

 

[Haiduk]

Just now, akd said:

Looks like the 73rd Naval SOC is also involved:

 

Yes, I've posted yesterday their night raid photos, but their mission is recon and making a night terror in enemy close rear, not direct fight for settlements

[Haiduk]

Some UKR unit in Petropavlivka, Kherson oblast. 

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Some UKR unit in Petropavlivka, Kherson oblast. 

Are they even going try and stop running north of the Inhulets? Extra points to the AFU General Staff for waiting until the water is cold enough to make swimming extra special.

[Haiduk]

In collection of UKR Kherson OOB:

Mala Oleksandrivka - liberated by elements of 46th air-assault brigade

Novodmytrivka - liberated likely by mech.unit of 17th tank brigade

[Kraft]

5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

October 2nd, Ukraine launched a massive armored attack down the T-403 highway that runs roughly parallel to the Dnipro river. This attack occurred during stormy conditions that limited Russian air cover and the use of drones and coincided with an electronic warfare attack that jammed all Russian communications. 

Ukraine charged down the highway, shattering the first line of defenses and rolling down to Havrylivka and Dudchany, over 20km from their starting positions. Russia reportedly blew the bridge in Dudchany, hindering the Ukrainian advance. 

Someone graciously wrote the briefing for one of your CM 2022 missions Steve, you just have to add it after you add that mission 

[Haiduk]

UKR hit Antonivskyi bridge again. 

No further images, but several sources write that "bridge finally destroyed". I doubt one of passes could collapsed, maybe it got such damages, which now completely deny any movement (before this Russians on won risk moved through the bridge with very slow speed per one truck)

Some Russian sources also confirmed bridge can't be used anymore, likely even for foot crossing. This as if TG of Russian 205th motor-rifle brigade:

 

Translation: We are not just withdrawing. We are retreating, I even can't to match a word how to call this. This is flight. We know who guilty of this. Everybody

No way to run. Antonovskyi bridge completely destroyed.

 

Like from LoTR: "We cannot get out. We cannot get out... They have taken a bridge.... The end comes... Drums... Drums..." 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[acrashb]

48 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Who knows what the truth is here..

[...]

But I think if they really started pulling out hundreds (?) of people's gold teeth, I think they wouldn't just put them in a plastic box and forget about them

Time will tell as international CSI types show up and lend their expertise and credibility.

For now, regarding "they wouldn't just put them in a ... box" - the Nazis did, so why not the RA of today?  The boxes of 80 years ago look eerily similar:

 

 

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Time will tell as international CSI types show up and lend their expertise and credibility.

For now, regarding "they wouldn't just put them in a ... box" - the Nazis did, so why not the RA of today?  The boxes of 80 years ago look eerily similar:

 

 

Almost wrote a whole bunch, but the picture speaks for itself.....

Send the Ukrainians every weapon system they can crew, really tempting to put a boomer on that list.

[Haiduk]

 

[dan/california]

[Vacillator]

44 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Like from LoTR: "We cannot get out. We cannot get out... They have taken a bridge.... The end comes... Drums... Drums..." 

Agreed, and that's possibly the most moving passage in that book.  I'm not sure I'd be so moved at modern (real) equivalents.

[Haiduk]

Putin ordered Topol-M (SS-27)to roll around Moscow for demonstration

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Putin ordered Topol-M (SS-27)to roll around Moscow for demonstration

That is so messed up in so many ways.  There just aren't any words to analyze the mindset of a people that think that would be a good thing to see driving around.

Can't they smell desperation?

[Probus]

.

Edited October 4, 2022 by Probus

[Beleg85]

Hey guys! Finally after 3 weeks offline (covid) I have an occassion to come back to this glorious thread...and I instantly find several pages of people talking about their favourite winter socks and shoes. What the hell?

A lot of things in this war changed in those 3 weeks, more than in last several months actually...

1.Ukrainians are seriously kicking Russians assess - as predicted in this forum.

2.Putin's mobilization is going as predicted as well, i.e. resembling slow, painful and pathetic road of Tsarist fleet of Rozdhestvensky to Japan, expecting probably similar fate- of long farce ending in short drama.

3. I see Russians Nats still didn't rebell but need tampons to dry their tears every day...We are at the stage Russians apparently even lacks vatnik clothes for winter, which sounds like satire.

Things seem to be very promising...did I miss something?

 

Oh, btw interesting video:

 

[akd]

21 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 

OMG, dune buggy with MG3. Must have in CM.

[Haiduk]

Photos with vertlical glow in the night sky, seen in several Russian cities, posted here recently, can be a work of some newest Russian optical system Peresvet - unknown device, which allegedly can blind sattelites on orbites up to 1,5 km to foil the tracking for mobile strategic missiles launchers routes. And on the video above we can see moving Topol-M

Here is video from Belgorod

Peresvet complex

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

12 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Hey guys! Finally after 3 weeks offline (covid) I have an occassion to come back to this glorious thread...and I instantly find several pages of people talking about their favourite winter socks and shoes. What the hell?

A lot of things in this war changed in those 3 weeks, more than in last several months actually...

1.Ukrainians are seriously kicking Russians assess - as predicted in this forum.

2.Putin's mobilization is going as predicted as well, i.e. resembling slow, painful and pathetic road of Tsarist fleet of Rozdhestvensky to Japan, expecting probably similar fate- of long farce ending in short drama.

3. I see Russians Nats still didn't rebell but need tampons to dry their tears every day...We are at the stage Russians apparently even lacks vatnik clothes for winter, which sounds like satire.

Things seem to be very promising...did I miss something?

 

Oh, btw interesting video:

 

Very interesting, but the rescue vehicle is a BRM-1K, not BMP-2.