How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

Here, I made a gif of recent Rybar's maps, and will be adding next as they are published:

[Bulletpoint]

23 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

No, seriously guys, I have had to skim pages and pages of 20 flavours of nuclear doomsday and Russian orcish Götterdamerung.

....But what if Putin orders the Rocket Forces to press the button, and the generals (maybe including Shoigu btw, who is no fool) decide that no I don't want everyone I ever loved to vanish in a nuclear fireball, storm the Kremlin, shoot his ***, massacre his chef and Halal Tiktok boy, and all the various other chekists, mafiyas and Praetorians, announce complete and unconditional withdrawal from Ukraine and then abjectly throw themselves on the mercy of the West.

War is over.

What happens then?

Deus ex Kremlina?

[Probus]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

Here, I made a gif of recent Rybar's maps, and will be adding next as they are published:

You've been hacked Huba!!!

[akd]

More drone footage of the Russian attack that resulted in point blank engagement with Ukr tank (area seen @ 0:20) shows things went pretty badly for the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade:

 

[Huba]

Just now, Probus said:

You've been hacked Huba!!!

Nah he wasn't. I mean, no I wasn't!

[chuckdyke]

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Sad there is no  button!

[Bil Hardenberger]

13 minutes ago, akd said:

More drone footage of the Russian attack that resulted in point blank engagement with Ukr tank (area seen @ 0:20) shows things went pretty badly for the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade:

 

I do wish these videos would show the actual engagement, without edits.  These edited videos, which skip from the early fight to the aftermath, without the interesting bit in-between are frustrating. 

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

I do wish these videos would show the actual engagement, without edits.  These edited videos, which skip from the early fight to the aftermath, without the interesting bit in-between are frustrating. 

Yes. But they could well be from different engagements and just copy/pasted together haphazardly.

[Probus]

Unlimited upvotes to the first person to find a destroyed BPM-97 or BMPT Terminator 2 "Super Weapons":

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russias-nuclear-train-is-not-necessarily-what-the-media-is-portraying-it-to-be

I'm sure these weapons will turn the tide for Russia...

[akd]

5 minutes ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

I do wish these videos would show the actual engagement, without edits.  These edited videos, which skip from the early fight to the aftermath, without the interesting bit in-between are frustrating. 

This shows the attack in this area.  The newer vid has more aftermath.

 

[Probus]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Yes. But they could well be from different engagements and just copy/pasted together haphazardly.

Yeah.  That's the feeling I get whenever I see one of these pasted together videos.  I'm sure most of them or genuine, but it sure does reduce their validity.  

[Taranis]

3 minutes ago, Probus said:

Unlimited upvotes to the first person to find a destroyed BPM-97 or BMPT Terminator 2 "Super Weapons":

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russias-nuclear-train-is-not-necessarily-what-the-media-is-portraying-it-to-be

I'm sure these weapons will turn the tide for Russia...

2S25 Sprut-SD also wanted 


Catch 'em all ?
 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Taranis

[Taranis]

"Transport of a Ukrainian armored vehicle to Donetsk Oblast, September 29, 2022. ADRIEN VAUTIER / LE PICTORIUM FOR "LE MONDE""


"A tank destroyed in the vicinity of Izioum, September 29, 2022. ADRIEN VAUTIER / LE PICTORIUM FOR "LE MONDE""


"An AK-47 assault rifle dismantled at a base of the 206th Ukrainian Territorial Defense Battalion between the administrative region of Mykolaiv and that of Kherson, September 27, 2022. LUCAS BARIOULET FOR "LE MONDE""


"Andrei, nom de guerre "Des", fighting in the 206th Territorial Defense Battalion, on the border between the administrative region of Mykolaiv and that of Kherson, September 27, 2022. LUCAS BARIOULET FOR "LE MONDE""

[The_MonkeyKing]

I will start to get worried if I see anything like this in the RUS mobilization (Finnish exercise for reservists):
footage from gearing up the troops

 

[Zeleban]

25 minutes ago, Probus said:

Unlimited upvotes to the first person to find a destroyed BPM-97 or BMPT Terminator 2 "Super Weapons":

ok i'll be the first

[Zeleban]

In fact, ZSU destroyed at least three of them in 2015

[Taranis]

5 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

In fact, ZSU destroyed at least three of them in 2015

Now you have to negotiate with Steve to collect your reward. Good luck 

[Huba]

Here's a lengthy interview with Polish volunteer, fighting on the first line in the Donbas. He comments on many subjects - Russian DRGs, equipment, cooperation with the locals, drones, morale etc. Nothing really unique, but a nice read overall. In Polish, but google translate is reasonable:

https://defence24.pl/sily-zbrojne/rosjanie-nam-sie-nie-przedstawiali-polak-na-pierwszej-linii-w-donbasie-wywiad

[Taranis]

"Roman Servetnyk, unit leader within the 59th motorized brigade in a trench southeast of Mykolaiv, September 29, 2022. LUCAS BARIOULET FOR "LE MONDE""

[LongLeftFlank]

1. Defmon tends to be dead on, but also about 1-2 days behind actual developments these days.

So we'll soon be getting photos and vids from Rubizhne suburbs.... 

2.  Know your enemy and know yourself, and in a thousand battles you will never be in peril... (some old Chinese guy)

Related, from Pat Lang's blog....

https://turcopolier.com/putin-should-be-worried-about-ukraine-capturing-one-of-russias-new-t-90m-tanks/#comments

I used to have an office that was devoted to bringing thingies like this back to CONUS for reverse engineering. My lads paid good money for “the Bear’s spares.” 

Edited October 4, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Probus]

10 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

In fact, ZSU destroyed at least three of them in 2015

I don't know if 2015 kills count...  But I was pretty ambiguous, wasn't I.

I went to give you an upvote anyway and I had ran out of upvotes.  So here's a thumbs up and a couple up arrows:

 Woohoo! (also a free woohoo )

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

I've previously shot overnight on the Toronto Lakefront in January and holy ****ing **** its awful. Just ****ing ****ty **** **** *** **** mother****er **** ****y ****ing awful. And that was with Baffin boots, heating pads, many layers, canada goose level coat, insulated overalls, gloves with heat pads, spare layers, etc. I was fine, in the end, but I was in no bloody hurry to do anymore days on 1st Unit of The Strain, I can tell you.

I've never been so cold - except in the old power station, the Hearn. But that has gigantic concrete floors that hold and radiate the cold, plus wind* and a nice nasty asbesto-y dust to blow around and as it was literally my first day on a film set and I knew nothing, I absolutely was not dressed correctly. 

Which is the point, really.

I don't know if anyone else noticed, but we were all jabbering in the Spring about the expected rains giving a mud season that would slow down RUS ops. Personally I saw very little impediment or hindrance due to surface conditions. Certainly nothing dramatic compared to the Wehrmacht's experience. 

I doubt this coming winter will slow the UA. As has been noted by others, winter hits the unprepared unequally. 

And I dont hear no stories about Ukraine "losing" 1.5 million winter uniforms.

 

_{*Wind is the killer, it really is. I find Terry Pratchet's description of a "Lazy Wind" as perfectly apt - "It doesn't bother going around, it just goes right through you."}

Heh.  Well, I feel the same way about hot areas.  I'd rather put more layers on than sit in a puddle of my own juices.

I went winter camping at -28F (-34c) air temp with a lot of wind.  Younger days, but I rather enjoyed it!  Fast forward 20 years to a night at an ice hotel (whole building made out of ice, including the bed and night stand).  I was fine, but my wife pulled the ripcord at about 5 in the morning and we bailed.

The primary problem with winter fighting is, as was mentioned earlier, footwear.  Unlike hands which can be shoved into pockets or taken inside a jacket for a boost, feet just hang out at the furthest distance from the body's heat center.  Nothing you can really do about them other than periodically pull them out of boots and warm them by a fire.

Even in the relatively mild winter climate of Ukraine (and it seems the warming trend makes it mild by my standards) it doesn't take long to get frostbite from improper footwear.  In fact, there were tons of reports of Russian soldiers developing frostbite and other cold related health issues during the "exercises" prior to the war's start.  They didn't have proper clothing even then, it's probably going to be even worse this winter.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

As far as i understand UKR call it Dagger tactics. Dager is platoon size unit usually up to three jeeps and one Kossak armored car.

They probe the front line for weaknesses. Once weakness is found they signal location to the main force and move with other Daggers through, blocking RU controlled settlements when necessary. Before RU can even realize what is going on their rear is full of UKR Daggers, RU defenders are blocked at their positions and the UKR mechanized hammer is coming.

Damn!  That is exactly the sort of tactics I was envisioning way back at the early part of the war.  The amount of damage a mounted platoon can do to an already demoralized, confused, and perhaps withdrawing force can not be understated.  Thunder runs on a small tactical level can have outsized operational impact, that is for sure.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

OK, plain language explanation of what just happened in the Kherson bridgehead... 

https://www.ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/update-for-october-2-3

On October 2nd, Ukraine launched a massive armored attack down the T-403 highway that runs roughly parallel to the Dnipro river. This attack occurred during stormy conditions that limited Russian air cover and the use of drones and coincided with an electronic warfare attack that jammed all Russian communications. 

Ukraine charged down the highway, shattering the first line of defenses and rolling down to Havrylivka and Dudchany, over 20km from their starting positions. Russia reportedly blew the bridge in Dudchany, hindering the Ukrainian advance.