How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

Didn't work.

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, TheVulture said:

Ukraine military arriving in Kivsharivka, just SE of Kupiansk

 

Soldiers give sweets, kids ask about chevrons ) 

[Haiduk]

49 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

One thing I've always asked myself:

What is the current situation on the Ukrainian border crossings with Belarus and Russia, where the counteroffensives pushed right up to the border? Are the crossing points operational in some way, or is this just a front line now?

Frontline. Russians periodically shelled border areas with mortars, arty, MLRS. Especially many such shellings in Sumy oblast. Our troops response on Russian territory. Situation on the border with Belarus is quiet

Edited October 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[Taranis]

"Fighters from the 59th Motorized Brigade on a tank, southeast of Mykolaiv, September 29, 2022. LUCAS BARIOULET FOR "LE MONDE""
* 2S1 Gvozdika


""Grad", a fighter with the 206th Territorial Defense Battalion hears the sounds of shelling, a few kilometers from Russian forces, on the border between the Mykolaiv region and Kherson, September 27, 2022. LUCAS BARIOULET FOR "LE MONDE ""

"A mannequin representing Russian President Vladimir Putin hangs on a pole, southeast of Mykolaiv, September 29, 2022. LUCAS BARIOULET FOR "LE MONDE""

[LongLeftFlank]

Formation locations, as of 1 Oct (MilitaryLand.net)

RUMINT

Amazon special delivery....

 

Edited October 2, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[keas66]

Re-Above - Looks like that model is already in Service ??

 

[Haiduk]

@akd

Here the full video of episode, where Russian T-80 destroyed UKR T-64 with point blanc shot, but this video filmed already from Ukranian drone. Part of it I've posted several hours ago, but this one has additional episodes of Russian infantry bombing from the drones. 

This was near Yehorivka village, Donetsk oblast - Vuhledar sector. I thought, Russians had (or seized) some positions in tree plant and our troops hit them hard with arty. Probably tank was sent there, but simultainosly Russian troops (likely 61st naval infantry brigade) sent there armored convoy with T-80 and BMP-3 - 6 vehciles total. UKR tank spotted the enemy, when they already approached. Maybe crew paniced, maybe gun failed, but T-64 got a shell from T-80 and set fire (at 0:48 - 0:54). But Russians also were surprised and became to roll back, probably expecting more UKR armor. When half of enemy armor became to withdraw, ATGM launcher of National Guard SOF unit "Omega" launched a missile. First hit mid Russian BMP-3, but it's abscent on next cadres, so it probably either could move itself or was towed away. One BMP-3 stayed near treeplant to take wounded or dead Russian soldiers from destroyed position. When it departed, next ATGM chased it.   

 

[akd]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

National Guard special force unit "Omega" (main tasks are special operations of counter-terror, counter-insurgency, recon, securing of VIPs) ambushes with ATGM Russian armored column somewhere in Donbas. They set fire the tank, than ATGMed retreating part of column (but despite on tank hit, probably it was towed back), finally BMP-3 which took the crew of first tank was destroyed by therd missile.

 

This is another angle on that point blank engagement between defending UKR tank (destroyed) and advancing RUS tanks. Shows they took losses also.

EDIT: nevermind, you were posting about this already.

Edited October 2, 2022 by akd

[Haiduk]

One more T-90A (4th), abandoned in Kurylivka, Kharkiv oblast. Likely also from 27th MRB.

 

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, Butschi said:

German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach reacting to philosopher Richard David Precht who continually demands negotiations to end the war (this time by NATO members vowing to veto Ukrainian NATO membership):

" Let's be honest: What is the point of genuflecting to Putin now? We are at war with Putin and not his psychotherapists. We must continue to consistently pursue victory in the form of the liberation of Ukraine. It does not matter whether Putin's psyche can cope with it."

EDIT: I do think we should take Putin's psyche into account. It would be remiss not to. What I find remarkable, though, is that a member of the German government publicly says we are at war.

This is the most sense I have heard a member of the German talk.

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Optimistic post about this with some hints from UKR soldier

 

Vitya, fu//k them tough! My friends from Kherson area tell, they will outshine Lyman and I will be ashamed, that I braged with participation here [Lyman], but not there. Please God, bro! I am only "for"!

Hard for an army's morale to BE any higher than that.

 

2 hours ago, Huba said:

More good news on the artillery front:

And a very interesting rumor. Reported by WarGonzo, but without photos or other proof. 

 

I have advocated for this for months. Every square inch of Ukraine that has been fought over has been mined beyond the point of saturation. The idea is to make the Russians go home so you CAN demine it. The M26 rockets would/will move that right along.

[dan/california]

https://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/bravo-navalny-for-clarifying-your-position-on-ukraine-and-the-west.html

Navalny stakes his claim for Western support as the next leader of Russia. 100% denouncement of the War Against Ukraine, and Russian imperialism generally. Does he believe actually believe that? Who knows? but a Russian leader who has even said it once would be a rather large improvement. And of course has to live through the war and a few other details.

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/bravo-navalny-for-clarifying-your-position-on-ukraine-and-the-west.html

Navalny stakes his claim for Western support as the next leader of Russia. 100% denouncement of the War Against Ukraine, and Russian imperialism generally. Does he believe actually believe that? Who knows? but a Russian leader who has even said it once would be a rather large improvement. And of course has to live through the war and a few other details.

I see a window in his future followed by a couple flights of stairs.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, sburke said:

I see a window in his future followed by a couple flights of stairs.

The only reason I can see that he is still alive is that Putin wanted to have him executed publicly as part of the victory celebration for his "special military operation". The SMO turning out to be special in all the wrong ways seems to have paralyzed Putin's thinking on the matter. I mean Lenin was sent to Siberia once, and managed to return....

[Haiduk]

Invisible 3rd Army Corps still supply UKR army with armor

[dan/california]

AFU aren't stopping until the Russians get it together and make them.

[dan/california]

All of his stuff is great, but there is real insight in this one.

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

All of his stuff is great, but there is real insight in this one.

[LongLeftFlank]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

AFU aren't stopping until the Russians get it together and make them.

Gonna be a mainly infantry operation. 

Hydrological reserve of local importance in Ukraine. Area: 3900 hectares.... a unique underground water deposit in the Pishchany Yeryk stream (Krasna River valley). It is of karst origin, in the Upper Cretaceous zone, in which there is a system of karst cavities. Many water sources come to the surface as lakes, among which the largest is Lyman (1.5 km in diameter). It is the source of water supply for the city of Kreminna. Water supply: 9,300 m³ per day. Here are also the forest massif (mainly pine) and large meadow-swamp areas.

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Grossman said:

Steve. There was one other factor. Fear of the Russians, what they would do to the invaders. The individual German soldier knew what they had done to the Russians, and feared retribution.  The Russians have built up the myth of invincibility after their feats in WW2. Just about all the factors that supported that effort are missing in Ukraine. This is a new form of warfare, in the IT era, and the Russians are the invading force. 

True, and this applied to Yugoslavia as well.  But it seems that it was simply extra motivation rather than anything else.  I say this because the Germans handled pockets in the West in a similar fashion.  Even the Ruhr Pocket had a functional defense plan in place. 

Another difference is that the Germans valued the lives of their fellow soldiers. German officers, by and large, took their responsibility for keeping their soldiers alive very seriously.  When the situation was obviously beyond repair they surrendered in an orderly way.  Lots of examples of this resulting from Bagration, but of course the most famous was Stalingrad.

The Russians not only lack the internal discipline, command structure, and communications that the Germans had (which itself is astonishing!), but their officers do not seem to have the same ethos.  They appear more likely to adopt the same "every man for himself" attitude that the rank and file have.  No negotiations for mass surrender, just routed men desperately running away.

Steve

[kraze]

33 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/bravo-navalny-for-clarifying-your-position-on-ukraine-and-the-west.html

Navalny stakes his claim for Western support as the next leader of Russia. 100% denouncement of the War Against Ukraine, and Russian imperialism generally. Does he believe actually believe that? Who knows? but a Russian leader who has even said it once would be a rather large improvement. And of course has to live through the war and a few other details.

putin from '99 also pretended he is pro-West.

What really matters is what Navalny said before he annoyed Vlad so much he got poisoned and imprisoned - and that was him supporting occupation of new Georgian territories in 2008 and supporting occupation of Crimea where he basically told us to forget about it if he becomes president. And this is where he was honest because he faced no consequences.

He certainly should not be supported or even trusted by anyone.

[Battlefront.com]

11 hours ago, CAZmaj said:

Putin: "The End of Western Hegemony is INEVITABLE"
The quiet part out loud.
Konstantin Kisin
This is a reproduction of my live Twitter summary/translation of Vladimir Putin's speech:


I wish every single person in the West would listen to Putin's speech. Obviously, that won't happen so let me summarize as a professional translator for 10+ years. He states, as he has done from the outset, what his intentions and complaints are in the plainest terms possible.
Setting aside his brief comments on the recent "referendums", he spends most of his speech discussing the West. His primary complaint isn't NATO expansion, which gets only a cursory mention. The West is greedy and seeks to enslave and colonize other nations, like Russia.
The West uses the power of finance and technology to enforce its will on other nations. To collect what he calls the "hegemon's tax". To this end the West destabilizes countries, creates terrorist enclaves and most of all seeks to deprive other countries of sovereignty.
It is this "avarice" and desire to preserve its power that is the reason for the "hybrid war" the collective West is "waging on Russia". They want us to be a "colony". They do not want us to be free, they want Russians to be a mob of soulless slaves - direct quote.
The rules-based order the West goes on about is "nonsense". Who made these rules? Who agreed to them? Russia is an ancient country and civilization and we will not play by these "rigged" rules. The West has no moral authority to challenge the referendums because it has violated the borders of other countries. Western elites are "totalitarian, despotic and apartheidist" - direct quote. They are racist against Russia and other countries and nations. "Russophobia is racism". They discriminate by calling themselves the "civilized world".
They colonized, started the global slave trade, genocide native Americans, pillaged India and Africa, forced China to buy opium through war. We, on the other hand, are proud that we "led" the anti-colonial movement that helped countries develop to reduce poverty and inequality.
They are Russophobe (they hate us) because we didn't allow our country to be pillaged by creating a strong CENTRALISED (emphasis his) state based on Christianity, Islam, Judaism and Buddhism. They have been trying to destabilize our country since the 17thcentury in the Times of Trouble.

Eventually, they managed to "get their hands on our riches" at the end of the 20th century. They called us friends and partners while pumping out trillions of dollars (his ironic game is strong today).
We remember this. We didn't forget. The West claims to bring freedom and democracy to other countries but it's the exact opposite of the truth. The unipolar world is anti-democratic by its very nature. It is a lie. They used nuclear weapons, creating a precedent. They flattened German cities without "any military need to do so". There was no need for this except to scare us and the rest of the world. Korea, Vietnam. To this day they "occupy" Japan, South Korea and Germany and other countries while cynically calling them "allies".
The West has surveillance over the leaders of these nations who "swallow these insults like the slaves they are".
He then talks about bioweapon research (haven't heard about them for a while) and human experiments "including in Ukraine".
The US rules the world by the power of the fi st. Any country which seeks to challenge Western hegemony becomes an enemy. Their neocolonialism is cloaked in lies like "containment" of Russia, China and Iran. The concept of truth has been destroyed with fakes and extreme propaganda (irony game still strong).
You cannot feed your people with printed dollars and social media. You need food and energy. But Western elites have no desire to find a solution to the food and energy crises*they* (emphasis his) created.
They solved the problems at the start of 20c with WW1 and the US established dominance of the world via the dollar as a result of WW2. In the 80s they had another crisis they solved by "plundering our country". Now they want to solve their problems by "breaking Russia".
Russia "understands its responsibility to the international community" and will "do everything to cool the heads of these neocolonialism who are destined to fail".
They're crazy. I want to speak to all Russian citizens; do we want to replace mum and dad with parent 1 and 2?
They invented genders and claim you can "transition". Do we want this for our children?
We have a different vision.
They have abandoned religion and embraced Satanism - direct quote.
The world is going through a revolutionary transformation. A multipolar world offers nations freedom to develop as they wish and they make up the majority of the world.
We have many like-minded friends in Western countries. We see and appreciate their support. They are forming liberation, anti-colonial movements as we speak - direct quote. These will only grow.
We are fighting for a fair world for our country. The idea of exceptionalism is criminal and we must turn this shameful page. The breaking of the West's hegemony is INEVITABLE (emphasis his).
There is no going back. We are fighting for our "great (as in big), historic Russia". Our values are (irony game crescendo): love of our fellow man, compassion and mercy.
Truth is with us; Russia is with us.

(That's the end of the speech)


As I said from day 1, the purpose of what Putin is doing in Ukraine is to throw the West off its pedestal. This isn't about NATO or Ukraine; this is the big play to replace the current world order.
P.S.
Reaction from one of the attendees:
"We'll beat them all, we'll kill them all, we'll plunder all their stuff. It's going to be what we love to do!”

 

Thanks for that.  It's nothing we haven't heard from Putin or the RU Nats before, but it's interesting that even in this desperate time in his regime's history, he is still not bracing the public for things not going well at the front or at home.  This is a big mistake if he wants to try and rally the people because the defeats are getting harder and harder to cover up.  However, it is not a mistake if he believes that the bulk of the Russian people don't believe his narrative.  In that case, preparing the Russian public for tough times will likely result in him being deposed with the support of a large segment of society.

In my view the bulk of the Russian population is similar to the base of support in Western countries against "handouts" (i.e. social welfare programs).  They buy into the rhetoric of the elites who say it's all bad, but when it comes to suggestions that their benefit programs be scaled back... well... oddly enough their enthusiasm drops to near zero.  The analogy here is that the average Russian might "talk tough" about their glorious struggle with the West, but when it comes down to it they aren't willing to sacrifice their comfort or lives for it.  Therefore, if Putin says to them "the West has the upper hand, we need to dispense with all comforts and fight this menace!" I don't think the population would support it.

If you think about it, this is consistent with the concept of Special Military Operation.  As long as the average Russian didn't have to be bothered by it, they are all for it.  As it has fallen apart Putin has tried desperately to keep the people from understanding the implications of failure.  This speech continues that strategy.

Steve

[FancyCat]

18 minutes ago, kraze said:

putin from '99 also pretended he is pro-West.

What really matters is what Navalny said before he annoyed Vlad so much he got poisoned and imprisoned - and that was him supporting occupation of new Georgian territories in 2008 and supporting occupation of Crimea where he basically told us to forget about it if he becomes president. And this is where he was honest because he faced no consequences.

He certainly should not be supported or even trusted by anyone.

Things change, 2008 and 2014, the West basically let it happen. The West has become more and more important to sustaining him as his position in Russia has declined amid the crackdown on him, any moves he makes in the near term in the assumption he can gain power in Russia will be to appease the West and any long term worries, Ukraine should be prepared and hopefully in NATO.

Edited October 2, 2022 by FancyCat

[Haiduk]

Hard work, vodka, smoking, semi-criminal society around, low education and culture level, no life interests except primitive -> degradation, no matter for which nation. Here is typical Donbas orc

  

Edited October 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

10 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Source?  I got a dressing down from @The_Capt a while back when I dared suggest UA ought to use AP mines, since the RU clearly wasn't observing the treaty (to be fair, they never signed).

Hardly a "dressing down" - I do have to keep in mind civies have a different definition of this.

It was a discussion on political cost versus battlefield gain.  I seriously doubt those were UA AP minefields - if they were the clock is ticking on the PR blowback.  Of course the Russians are using them, they are 1) dumb and 2) the bad guys).  We in the west need a clear definition between the "good guys" and "bad guys".  We can tolerate some grey in there but not too much.

Of course for anyone that has been to war, we know this distinction is just dumb.  It is "bad guys" (normally us) and "worse guys" (them).  There is little "good" in the thing.  I don't tell war stories because of any internal trauma - I stopped because everyone looks at you differently afterwards and I got pretty tired of that.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Things change, 2008 and 2014, the West basically let it happen. The West has become more and more important to sustaining him as his position in Russia has declined amid the crackdown on him, any moves he makes in the near term in the assumption he can gain power in Russia will be to appease the West and any long term worries. Ukraine should be prepared and hopefully in NATO.

The test will be simple enough, if the medium sized miracle of him coming to power occurs. Train after train of the people Putin has kidnapped arriving in Kyiv would be the obvious thing to demonstrate sincerity.