Lethaface Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: Yet they all fit the facts as we know them. Importantly, they fit the facts as we believe Russia is perceiving them to be (i.e. us trying to put aside Western thinking/logic). There is no exit strategy in sight for Putin. He must know this by now. Therefore, he's doing what he always does... try every desperate manipulation he can think of to try and provide him with an option he currently doesn't have. The idiocy of Putin is that he didn't have to start this large scale war to get largely what he wanted. He could have gone with any number of other options and, IMHO, probably militarily won for the short term. He might have even been able to have more friction in the West and less sanctions as a result. But that ship has sailed. Since then he's had a number of opportunities to end the war with at least something he wanted. Ukraine was willing to give him a couple things to stop the war. We've speculated as to why Putin was so "maximalist" in what he wanted out of this war, but it is clear that whatever his motivations he felt he needed everything. Partial success was a failure in his mind. Now even that ship has sailed.Putin likely understands that he has no hope of a military solution. Not even stalemate for a short period of time. Therefore, he has to angle for something political to save him from total defeat. As we've seen, he really doesn't have options there either, try as he might to create them. So it looks like Putin is rapidly approaching the understanding that in his "all or nothing" gamble he is going to get nothing. Hopefully he has already come to that conclusion even after considering using nukes. What does this mean? I think he'll just keep doing what he's been doing until someone puts a bullet in his head. Steve +1 and this wasn't the only post you've made I'd liked, but I don't like to stick feathers too much lol. Anyway I think your assessments have been rather sharp since before this war. Hopefully that bullet/window/tea event comes soon. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said: I don't remember the number, but early on there was a flurry of OSINT that indicated readiness levels were really low. Corruption was discussed as the primary common factor. However, we certainly are seeing a lot of vehicles entering Ukraine that were probably dragged out of very long term storage. T-62s being the poster child for this. Which means Russia probably had fewer vehicles ready than predicted, but they also likely had more from the bone yards that could be made serviceable than we maybe thought. Steve My guess is that there is less to break on a T-62, and perhaps less to steal. At least there was less to steal that was worth more than the scrap metal price. And maybe some of the really old style seals and whatnot held up better in storage. Have there been any reports of a single hard to source part that is bad on the stored T-72s? it only takes one critical bit you can't replace. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vacillator Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: On a serious note, I often think about how lucky I am that the country with the longest border with mine is Canada. We have Eire. Without colonialism it might have been easier. Or with more 'successful' colonialism it might have been even easier . Same goes for Canada, etc. etc. I realise in the thread context I'm on dodgy ground here . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Yup, the recapture of Kherson is an absolute strategic necessity for 2022.Ujr cannot come out of the winter without Kherson (and de facto the dniper) in hand. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NamEndedAllen Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said: You canny Gaelic person, you have cracked our secret code! Being 'sorry' is the rest of what it is to be a Canadian. There is nothing more, other than Keiths and Don Cherry. Don Cherry! Don Cherry! Respect!! Amidst the mass of true and actual horrors of war and human capacity for evil…this nod to the opposite spirit. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Cherry_(trumpeter) oh. Wait… you meant THAT Don Cherry: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Cherry never mind… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ultradave Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 56 minutes ago, Splinty said: As an American I love our Canadian cousins. After all they gave the world Rush. Which to me is the greatest band to ever exist. Great Big Sea. My wife and I were vacationing in Glacier National Park and took a 3 day side trip to the adjoining Waterton Lakes National Park over the border. Rainy afternoon and CBC was re-running a Great Big Sea concert - same one as the "Great Big CD & DVD" album (seriously, that's the name, live show from Ottawa). Great show and we were sitting there thinking "Why have we never heard of these guys?" We've since been to several of their concerts here in the US. They are best live. So much fun. Dave 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 More weapons! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 is the translation right? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calamine Waffles Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 This aged well Quote In terms of geography I believe it will hardly extend much beyond current L/DNR area. But in terms of systems employed IMO it may be a repetition of Georgia - tactical ballistic and cruise missiles, heavy air campaign etc. Ukraine has limited Air Force - like ten times smaller than Russian - and severely outdated however significant AA defense. After a proper SEAD campaign Ukrainian Forces will be left defenseless. Why do you think Ukrainian popular opinion is slowly drifting into the "military solution"? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 This is a hard watch.... 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pavel.k Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 liveuamap.com has a strange map that looks like Zarichne is in the kessel too. Or no color does mean unknown status? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackMoria Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, dan/california said: This is a hard watch.... "Death is light as a feather...Duty, heavy as a mountain." The mountain on Zelensky's shoulder is very evident here. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 No clue if it is correct, but it makes perfect military sense. The AFU broke through at Yampil, and then just kept looking for the least defend route that that would close the kessel. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Zarichne,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine,+84442/@49.0161988,37.9312226,8271m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x412079f65b9f1ead:0xc56df4da5ab3a046!8m2!3d49.0221765!4d37.9271382 If correct the AFU moved thru the less defensible terrain on the outskirts, and just left the harder ares in the Kessel. It implies to me they were armor heavy in the breakthru forces. They cleared the path it was the easiest for tanks to clear. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 21 minutes ago, FancyCat said: is the translation right? In general, yes, it can be clarified that he uses as a metaphor violent sexual intercourse with Europe, where Russia is in an active role 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Drobyshevo taken 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pavel.k Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Def Mon has a similar map. So they will trap the reinforcements that came to help. Perfect. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, Zeleban said: In general, yes, it can be clarified that he uses as a metaphor violent sexual intercourse with Europe, where Russia is in an active role I am going to enjoy watching these a$$hats live in their crap country with no industry or technology for the next decade plus. Modern hospital resources... yeah not so much, but you can still make plenty of alcohol. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 36 minutes ago, FancyCat said: is the translation right? It is. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomCommenter Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 54 minutes ago, Vacillator said: We have Eire. You mean "Ireland". Which is the name of the state in the English language. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vacillator Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 1 minute ago, RandomCommenter said: You mean "Ireland". Indeed. But I respect their language . 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 What do you all think? Could these taller trees have already lost their leaves as of yesterday? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomCommenter Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 36 minutes ago, dan/california said: This is a hard watch.... Man, I've been reading these boards for six months and that is the first time I literally cried. The price is so heavy. To see those children who will grow up without fathers. It's crushing. But the other thing that comes out of that video is the sheer humanity and grace of Zelensky. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lethaface Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, akd said: What do you all think? Could these taller trees have already lost their leaves as of yesterday? Here they haven't 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, akd said: Indeed. (The bear paw marking has been associated with 3 AK.) No, their sign is a circle in inverted triangle. BMP-2M are vehicles of 21st MRB and volunteer cossack battalion "Don" (later allegedly expanded to brigade), formed on its base. Edited September 30, 2022 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, akd said: What do you all think? Could these taller trees have already lost their leaves as of yesterday? No leaves on the ground, my guess is a spring picture. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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