How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

Seems we have another UKR attack

Quote

The situation under the Lyman is extremely difficult. The enemy strikes the main blow near Yampil and Torskye, with the aim of finally cutting the Kremennaya-Lyman highway and encircling our troops. Attacks with large forces with the support of artillery, HIMARS and armored vehicles. Today will be a very difficult night and tomorrow a very difficult day.

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Seems we have another UKR attack

Out of likes, so have a comment instead Looks like Putin will have something to talk about in his speech tomorrow. 

[Haiduk]

17 minutes ago, sburke said:

you are a captive of your own history.

This history has begun in 12th century when there no neither Ukrainan, nor Russians in modern senses. This is not accidental conflict, this is just next Russo-Ukrainian war.

This is very easy to say "see in the cloudless future", when your neigbour anyway will want to take your yard. I don't want that all finished with "Hey! You guilt himself, because provoced him!", "Why did you so hellish beat up his face to the blood with a bat, when he just came to you with a rifle!", "you havn't to re-educate him! Yes, he is drunken brutal murder, but this is his unique identity! Nobody like he in our village!", "At all, let forgive this guy and will open entrance to our market, he should by a parts to repair own rifle - we have a plans to hire it to guard our eastern part!" 

[Ultradave]

45 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I'd say nuclear war is better than this.

Sarcasm, right? I hope so.

If not, it's the most ridiculous thing I've read in a long time. 

Dave

[billbindc]

Absolutely superb analysis. If we survive the next 18 months his book is going to be great:

https://ogs-and-ofzs.ghost.io/empire-of-austerity/

[Grigb]

I am off to bed. Send me a message when UKR tanks enter Starobilsk. 

[akd]

UKR Su-24M goes down with multiple SAMs chasing it:

 

[asurob]

13 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Sarcasm, right? I hope so.

If not, it's the most ridiculous thing I've read in a long time. 

Dave

He's not far off.  Honestly, if you give into little vlad's nuclear blackmail...this will not be the last time he wields that tool.  Next up the Baltics, or Poland or...well you get the idea.  If you give into little Vlad's nuclear blackmail, next up....North Korea, or Iran when they finally sort out the details of nuclear fission.  This will be the results of not responding and responding hard to Russian threats of nuclear escalation...  Do you want to live in "that" world?  I do not.  

[dan/california]

https://earth.google.com/web/search/Lyman,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine/@49.02443551,38.02019272,123.1323601a,8797.46910032d,35y,-0h,0t,0r/data=CigiJgokCQ5-vqoudEhAEeWbFoCCLUhAGar-BJq4DkNAIQHk7K0dUkJA

 

https://earth.google.com/web/search/Lyman,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine/@49.02443551,38.02019272,123.13315172a,12889.85734665d,35y,0h,0t,0r/data=CigiJgokCQ5-vqoudEhAEeWbFoCCLUhAGar-BJq4DkNAIQHk7K0dUkJA

 

Google earth has a couple of good pictures of the terrain around Torske these are from just a few kilometers to the east. The road the Russians need to take to get out, or too counterattack on.

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This history has begun in 12th century when there no neither Ukrainan, nor Russians in modern senses. This is not accidental conflict, this is just next Russo-Ukrainian war.

This is very easy to say "see in the cloudless future", when your neigbour anyway will want to take your yard. I don't want that all finished with "Hey! You guilt himself, because provoced him!", "Why did you so hellish beat up his face to the blood with a bat, when he just came to you with a rifle!", "you havn't to re-educate him! Yes, he is drunken brutal murder, but this is his unique identity! Nobody like he in our village!", "At all, let forgive this guy and will open entrance to our market, he should by a parts to repair own rifle - we have a plans to hire it to guard our eastern part!" 

I think maybe you misunderstood me.  That wasn't about forgiving Russia or expecting anything different in their behavior.  It was a question of power dynamics.  Ukraine is on the ascendance, Russia on the decline.  Russia won't be a threat because they'll be too busy arguing over who's turn it is to use the outhouse and reminiscing over the brief time when they had working washing machines.

The west is going to have to figure out how to help them get rid of all those nukes just like we did previously.  They won't be able to do it themselves just like the last time we pitched in to clean up their nuke mess.  They already produce crap weapons and the industrial base for that is shrinking.

What is it you expect Russia to be able to do to Ukraine?  Attack you with pitchforks?  I don't know how Russia is going to change, but I do know this.  The bottom is falling out for them.  Yes it is their own fault and they likely deserve it all, however the continued fixation that they will just attack again is premised on what capability?  The disparity between the strength of Ukraine versus Russia will only get greater the longer it takes for them to show they deserve a place with the grown-ups again.  The last 800 years don't matter anymore.  Russia tries anything in 5-10 years I seriously doubt Ukraine is going to need any international assistance to stomp whatever Russia is capable of fielding then.

[JonS]

Putin will be dead in a few years. 10 tops. I can live in that world.

A nuked patch of ground will be wrecked for decades, along with the health of everyone downwind. I don't want to live in that world.

(Yes, I am currently geographically very far away. But that cuts both ways - I don't have to live with Putin as a neighbour, but I also wouldn't be /directly/ affected by any buckets of instant sunshine being splashed around. Also also, my partner is from the Baltics, and her family still lives there. I have been made *very* clear on how much it sucks to have Russia as a neighbour/overlord/coloniser)

[FancyCat]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well finally a well written explanation - thanks for that.

Big problems, very big problems though - you are talking about social engineering on an extremely wide scale for 140 million people.  Beyond the ethical issues - for example, how can we conduct this action and avoid erasing Russian identity and risking cultural genocide?  What you are describing sound a lot like a larger version of the indigenous re-education attempts here in North America and frankly no good came of that as the system was far to open to abuse and we were basically erasing a culture, which is expressly illegal. 

I would give you the benefit of the doubt on some assessments, although they really risk one-sizing 140 millions people (e.g. cruelty and inner aggression), I mean Europeans did some brutal stuff to indigenous people all over the world because of similar narratives.  To even try to sell that concept you would need a lot of science behind it and then would have to live with result if they do not align with what you may think.

Lastly, and it is a doozy, assuming you have framed the problem correctly and even come up with the perfect social engineering plan - the cost of doing this is insane.  We are talking a total defeat of Russia, followed by a 50 year occupation where we would need to rule these people as strict dictatorship.  I mean based on your logic no Russian could opt not to be re-educated.  So you want to fully occupy and govern a nation of 140 million of nothing but irreconcilable trouble.  Right off the bat we are talking a security operation well beyond post WW2 Germany or Japan.  Very likely insurgency from hell as we take casualties year after year while leaving ourselves open to every security operation going sideways.

Seriously, even if I did accept the initial premise - which I do not and broad stroking any nation/race/ethnicity to this degree would constitute blatant racism were it pointed at anyone else - the execution is pure fantasy.  This isn’t nation building it is nation deconstruction.

Finally, my honest advice to all of the Ukrainian posters here who seem to be forming up on these solutions is to take it off the air and keep it to yourselves.  Reason: because you come off as dangerous racists and extremists who are going to accomplish nothing but turning off the audiences you need for support.  Were I to honestly believe that your government support what you or kraze outline, I would also have serious second thoughts about support to greater military capability.  Why would I risk giving ATACMS to people who appear to refuse to recognize non-combatants, which is enshrined by international law?  I would be risking arming people who are looking to break those laws, making me culpable in the commission of warcrimes.

Now for the record, I am very sure your government does not support this narrative.  They have instead been fighting an honourable and legal war against an opponent who refuses to do the same.  However, by representing you nation here like this, you are hurting that record with this audience.

Finally, before anyone tries the “but you do not understand”, I have been on the ground for a genocide, I know exactly what it looks like.  It wasn’t soldiers who marched men, women and children into shallow graves at places like Bakovici - it was their neighbours and they were talking a lot like what I am hearing here.

 

If you don't mind me asking, what divides the Allied occupation of Germany and the U.S occupation of Japan between this hypothetical occupation of Russia? 

You didn't address it when i noted previously that your assertion that the cultures of Germany and Japan were not changed by the occupiers was incorrect, but i feel like your misunderstanding the length and extent of the occupations of those two countries, so I do need to emphasize that the changes imposed on Germany and Japan included their cultures. 

I'm not sure where you are getting the erasure of Russian culture or cultural genocide from anything Haiduk or kraze has stated. For comparison, I'm going to use the examples of Germany and Japan, considered the most successful occupations in recent/modern times? If you disagree with the measures undertaken in both Germany and Japan and therefore in the hypothetical occupation of Russia, of course there is discussion on whether it was right or wrong, or beneficial or etc, but your assertion is that the measures or potential solutions to these measures would initialize a genocide of Russia and its people and culture yet we have Germany and Japan and their cultures thriving fine. 

As a aside, I need to point out Russia sought to conduct a genocide of Ukraine, is doing so in the occupied areas of Ukraine, and we have ample evidence had the invasion gone successfully, would have included the breadth of Ukrainian society across all of Ukraine! Suggesting that Ukrainians are seeking to conduct a genocide when the face of their goal is to prevent this happening again is akin to accusing Jews of planning a genocide of Germans once they had been defeated! I understand you saw genocide, but please, Haiduk and kraze both live in Ukraine, and almost wouldn't be communicating to us right now had things gone better for Russia. There are Ukrainian posters in occupied regions, who god forbid, may be in grave danger as a result of the forced mobilization. I'm not sure why you keep accusing Haiduk and kraze of being extremists but i think its very disrespectful considering the, by all accounts, near universal restraint by the Ukrainian government and armed forces in conducting themselves in defending against Russia!

So in going over what Haiduk has stated, I don't want to spend too much time breaking down what is stated and their associated Nazi structures, as that would be a book, so I'll go very quickly and only provide a few examples. 

Educational System, one of the notable aspects that would require "Derashization" is the current learning warped in favor of narratives downplaying Soviet and Russian genocidal crimes, for example the Holodomor is not learned as a genocide of Ukrainians (and other peoples), but a more generalized Soviet failure to maintain food supply.

Soviet massacres of Polish intelligentsia, and military officers, as well as the deportations of people from the Baltics are underplayed or ignored, instead a liberation narrative is expressed throughout Russian teaching. 

Research into Soviet archives which expanded in the 90s due to the fall of the USSR, into Soviet crimes has been suppressed and outlawed: https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-russian-memory-project-that-became-an-enemy-of-the-state

If we want to compare it to Nazi examples that required Denazification, I mean we have the stab in the back myth, the unloyalty of German jews to the state, the suppression of "Jewish science". Etc.

Neo-imperial phylosophy - I am unsure what Haiduk means. 

Ideocracy - This is pretty evident, pluralist media, ceasing of the suppression of independent media in Russia, that has driven most of them to exile, or imprisonment in the example of Navalny. I'm not going to explain the Nazi equivalent, cause its pretty evident why this needs to be done, and the benefits of doing so. 

"Ruling and ordering" party - There is no legitimate opposition in Russia. Its suppressed, infiltrated, etc. Now, while we do have examples of former Nazis reentering politics, we should note their barring in the first place, the establishment of political parties not tainted by Nazism, and with those opposed to Nazism. And of course, Nazism itself is banned in Germany today. 

Orthodox church - The head of the Russian Orthodox Church expressing the view that the invasion of Ukraine is a holy and just war to protect Russia....do I have to explain why that needs derashization? For the example of Nazi interference into church life, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Nazi_Germany and again, Religious life is part of culture, Nazism sought to seize control of the religious institutions in order to better spread their ideology and the suppression of those deemed deviant. Again, I don't need to explain why Patriarch Kirill needs to be trialed. 

Cult of war and Great Victory - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Militarism#Germany

poverty breed to the craving to ostentatious wealth and envy to prosperity nations - reforming the Russian economy and political structure that allows the wealth of the rest of Russia to get concentrated in oligarchs and a narrow slice of the elite and middle class. Stopping corruption. I wouldn't say there is a Nazi equivalent, but I would think that laws and reforms sought by the European Union in suppressing corruption would be aspects for adoption in Russia, and of course transfer of wealth and payments to depressed regions, programs for expanding access economically and socially. 

swaggering and feeling of own supremacy - this is something that isn't entirely successful, Japan and Germany have xenophobia, on the legal side, laws for the protection of minorities, laws encouraging indigenous languages, teaching of history that isn't erasing the imperialism and colonialism that occurred as Russia expanded its empire till its present borders. 

cruelty and inner aggression - there is something to be said about a culture where the broken soldiers are ill treated, and regarded as of little worth, and all societies will have their own failings and mistakes, there is a cycle of violence that exists in many communities, like in indigenous communities, that are being suppressed socially, culturally, and economically that cause those being suppressed to lash out. How you fix that? Well, breaking the social and cultural chains by allowing and encouraging indigenous learning and expression, and prioritizing the economic lifting of the indigenous and poor would help a lot. 

A lot of Militarism and supremacy was broken thru the process of total conquest and occupation of Germany and Japan. I would on the face of it, assume the same here. Again, this is completely hypothetical, and very unlikely to occur in any sense at all. 

But to be honest, its really strange reading Haiduk's list, comparing it to aspects of the Nazi or Japanese state, and then having you accuse him of extremism and seeking genocide of Russians is very whiplashing to me.

I don't see anything that would constitute genocide in his list. Certainly, in the hypothetical scenario where Ukraine conquered Russia entirely, you could well argue that Ukraine would become genocidal and murderous and seek to bathe Russia in blood, but that is very different than accusing Haiduk of being a extremist. 

Unless you can explain how what he stated would lead to "social engineering" that would erase Russian identity, there is a lot of social engineering going on in Haiduk's post, but the amount of social engineering that occurred in post-war German and Japanese societies was intense, expansive, and arguably persists to today in the form of U.S cultural and military basing in both countries and yet no one could ever argue that Japanese culture is dead, or German culture is dead today.

Like to expand on what the U.S attempted to do in the occupation reforms of Japan, referring back to this link: https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/japan-reconstruction

A reminder, Japanese culture and society that occurred in its fascist state, you can review here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statism_in_Shōwa_Japan

1. Japan's military was disbanded. 

2. banning of individuals associated with the fascist regime from taking political office. 

3. Land reform, I can think of almost no other reform that would cause economic, political, social change more than land reform, and it was undertaken in Japan and Japanese culture exists today perfectly fine. 

4. Japan's constitution was changed. The divinity of the Emperor, a key aspect of Fascist Japan was tossed. 

Mentioning that you think Haiduk is suggesting indigenous re-educational camps as your take from reading his list is so whiplashing in the extreme, considering that Russification, the process of which Russia stripped and gained control over its indigenous populations used reeducation camps, and Ukraine is seeing that occur right now is astoundingly offensive.

I'll stop here, feel free to elaborate in detail how you think what kraze or Haiduk has expressed is cultural genocide of Russians, but I don't see anything like that here. I can see certainly a opportunity for it occurring in the hypothetical scenario of the total conquest of Russia but I will express that there was belief among both the Japanese hardliners and Nazi leadership of the idea that Japanese society and German society were to be destroyed by the victorious powers. 

[Letter from Prague]

If the nuclear taboo goes, humanity won't last twenty more years anyway. Might as well get it over with right away.

[Grigb]

Can't sleep so here is what RU Nat feels - agent Murz:

Quote

As for future news, then...
The only comment I have on the screaming headlines of the close to war telegram channels in the coming days is brief and sad.

This, of course, is already a betrayal. This level of incompetence simply does not exist.

[Ultradave]

11 minutes ago, asurob said:

or Iran when they finally sort out the details of nuclear fission. 

They know the details. The JCPOA was to prevent them from having enough material to enrich far enough for a weapon. The US withdrawal eliminated that restriction and now we're back where we were 5-6 years ago when they were 3 weeks away from doing so, and everyone was yelling to do something. 

 

14 minutes ago, asurob said:

Do you want to live in "that" world?  I do not.  

As to the rest, the idea that there is some binary decision to be made, either put up with the status quo, or some variation of that, or turn the whole world into a smoking cinder, is just ridiculous. You all are not saying punish Russia if they use one nuclear weapon. You are saying **** it, blow it all up. All of it. Everyone dies because we couldn't do anything else about Putin.

Crazy talk. 

Dave

[pavel.k]

27 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Sarcasm, right? I hope so.

If not, it's the most ridiculous thing I've read in a long time. 

Dave

This and even much worse cases are happening every day for over 7 months. One group is doing this and the other much stronger group is not preventing it. Does humanity deserve to exist?

[Ultradave]

6 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

If the nuclear taboo goes, humanity won't last twenty more years anyway. Might as well get it over with right away.

Yeah, ok. Sure. Glad you aren't in charge of any big red buttons. Another to add to my ignore list before I say something I'll regret.

[Seedorf81]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

I'd say nuclear war is better than this.

Really?

[Seedorf81]

Missed a few reactions while (interrupted) typing my last post, but if you people really think nuclear war is a desired option, you scare the **** outta me. Big time.

You do not know what you are asking for.. 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Seedorf81

[danfrodo]

And the forum descends into idiocy.  F.  I think I'm out for a while.  

Page after page of pointless drivel.  For example, folks endlessly blathering about how the west is going to remake russia -- guess what, we don't get to do that.  Only they can do that because we are not occupying russia, ever.  

[Letter from Prague]

Just now, Seedorf81 said:

Missed a few reactions while (interrupted) typing my last post, but if you people really think nucleair war is a desired option, you scare the **** outta me. Big time.

You do not know what you are asking for.. 

Nuclear war is of course not desired option.

Deciding between

1. risk of nuclear war (by standing up to Putin and helping Ukraine), and
2. certainty of sacrificing our humanity (by saying "ok let's deescalate and sacrifice millions of Ukrainians in the process who will end up in mass graves in the occupied territories")

is the struggle I see disagreements on.

But I'm gonna go cool down for few days, this is getting pretty far from the usual maps and RU Nats translations.

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[JonS]

11 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Nuclear war is of course not desired option.

Deciding between

1. risk of nuclear war (by standing up to Putin and helping Ukraine), and
2. certainty of sacrificing our humanity (by saying "ok let's deescalate and sacrifice millions of Ukrainians in the process who will end up in mass graves in the occupied territories")

is the struggle I see disagreements on.

But I'm gonna go cool down for few days, this is getting pretty far from the usual maps and RU Nats translations.

you literally said nuclear war is the better option

Edited September 29, 2022 by JonS

[asurob]

33 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

They know the details. The JCPOA was to prevent them from having enough material to enrich far enough for a weapon. The US withdrawal eliminated that restriction and now we're back where we were 5-6 years ago when they were 3 weeks away from doing so, and everyone was yelling to do something. 

 

As to the rest, the idea that there is some binary decision to be made, either put up with the status quo, or some variation of that, or turn the whole world into a smoking cinder, is just ridiculous. You all are not saying punish Russia if they use one nuclear weapon. You are saying **** it, blow it all up. All of it. Everyone dies because we couldn't do anything else about Putin.

Crazy talk. 

Dave

Not what I am saying at all.  There are those who are saying if Putin toss a tac we should sit back and shrug and say oh well.  "Let's not risk the world for Ukraine's freedom." Those folks don't recognize the actual struggle that is going on here.  If he goes this route I more than expect the west to make him pay.  I'm certainly not advocating a full Nuclear war.  No one wins in World War 3.  But no one won when Chamberlain came home wave paper around saying peace in our time.  Russia will need to pay a steep price.  Otherwise we will do this again in a couple of years with the next Putin.

[pavel.k]

18 minutes ago, JonS said:

you literally said nuclear war is the better option

He didn't mean it literally.

I am for the full NATO engagement in Ukraine since beginning of the invasion. Not doing it is a betrayal of western civilization and humanity. Negotiating with terrorists while letting them to execute attrocities is a road to hell. That is how i see it.

Now you can switch me to ignore.