How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, Cederic said:

to impose cultural change on Russia from outside its borders doesn't feel viable.

My post wasn't about "change beyond the borders", but inside Russia by new hypothetic government.

[akd]

Some Russian chatter about loss of Yampil:

 

[Zeleban]

From the side of RU there were rumors that Yampol was captured (Sorry for the repeat)

Edited September 29, 2022 by Zeleban

[Kinophile]

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Oh, this requires many writing, but this is impolite to ignore a question, so... 

On my opinion, rashism is a new form of agressive expansionistic and revanсhist ideology, offered by ruling elites to wide mass of Russians as state ideocratia.  This ideology based on of Euro-Asian philosophy of Dugin, "Russian World", "Moscow is Third Rome", USSR 2.0 conceptions. Motivation - whishes of revanchism and domination of Russain elites, which want a redistribution of economical and political influence spheres in the world, contesting the West in hybrid way in the form of restoration of lost Russain Empire (even not USSR) influence sphere and its expanding on other countries. 

Derashization will be VERY long process, which will take maybe two next generations and like said Poesel it will be almost useless for most of curerntly living population, because people over 35-40 years with big difficalty can change own mind settings. 

Because rashism is a product of symbiothic system of power and people's aspirations it has two forming components - outer and inner. Thus, to derashize a nation we have to strike on two components simultainously. Germans in most, I think, were affected only by outer component of nazism. German nation was more civilized and educated, than nations of USSR in 30th. So, German way: punish nazi + force demonstration to Germans consequenses of nazism + "don't ask don't tell" will be insufficient, because in Russian case big role plays inner factors of Russian mentality. So, I think, more proper example should be Japan, where local militaristic ideology also leaned on local mentality and traditions.    

So, outer factors:

- Neo-imperial phylosophy.  New authorities must recognize and condemn publicly Euroasian/ Russian World/ USSR 2.0 conceptions as neo-imperialistic and colonial. Their place should be near Mein Kampf for learning by hystorians.

- Ideocracy. Rashism now is a obligue state ideology like communism of USSR time. All state media provide only ideocratic messges. Alternmative thoughts and critic allowed only for minor aspects. If oppopse thougts appear on state TV as opponents of state mainstream, it's usually give like marginals and freaks. Remedy -  ideocracy must be destroyed. Returning real pluralism in media, like this was in early Yeltsin's times. Media have to show widely crimes of former Russian elites - both against other nations and against Russian people. Though, I must point that several investigations of independent Russian journalists about Putin's palaces and luxury life of oligarchs, which posessed almost all Russian actives and have been turning  income in own huge palaces and yachts, instead to develop Russia, almost didn't have responce from society. Most of Russians consider this is natural order of things for Russia. Though, anyway,  the big role in quick falling of USSR ideology played a role of Gorbachov's "glasnost", when millions for relatively short time learned about communist crimes and that West is not "rotten", but much more successfull, that Soviet paradise.

- "Ruling and ordering" party. Like Communist Party in USSR, modern "Unite Russia" plays the same role, providing ideocracy to regions. All other parties just a puppets, imitating democracy, even they criticize main party, lile Communists or LDPR. Remedy - establishing in future of real diffrent democracy political platforms. But on the time of "crossing period" Russian have to be ruled by "steel hand in velvet glove", leaning on some political force.

- Educational system. Ideocracy complete occupied all education system - from kindergardens to univercities. The vertical region government - educational department - director - teachers maintains state ideology line. Kids from small years have been learning "Russian supremacy" ideology, based on lessons of hystory, when Russia always held just wars for the sake of defending of oppresed, carry enlightmnent and freedom and always won, glorifying Russian weapon. All this backed up with endless cult of war with dressing in WWII uniform, kids "military parades" and as final stage membership in state paramilitary organizations like "Junior Army" or cossacks, studing in numerous classes in many usual scholls with reinforcement military and phisical training. All this also to the statemant "kids are not guilt". Of course, their choice can be caused by parents or teachers, but membership in "Junior Army" usually their deliberate choice. On other hand teachers are obedient performers of election falsifications, because voting points mostly located in schools and teachers usually are most of committee members. So the remedy - demilitarisation of schools, new course of history, releasing of teachers from the brutal pressure of officials, demanding to execute.

- Orthodox church. Despite in Russian Constitution claimed separating of church from the state, but indeed like in Tsar times, Church became a lean of state ideocracy and a tool of state power sacralization. The Church is a main conductor of "Russian world" and "Moscow is a Third Rome" conception as well as huge amount of weird anti-semith conspiracy. Church blesses Russian agreesision, Church is a provider of intolerance to other Christainic confessions and intolerance to other thinking. Church supports the cult of war - all can recall real devilish Main Military Cathedral, which looks like a God of War temple. The Church interferring more and more in everyday life of Russians. Church more and more sneak to education system, but not for some sort ethic or religion knowledges, really need for youngsters, but for implementing of "Russian world" ideology and typical Russian life principles, which form inner factors of rashism. Remedy - changing of Church leaders on more moderate, real expelling idecracy influence of Church from educational system.

- Cult of war and Great Victory. All Russian life pierced with mentions about wars and victories, public interactive demonstrations of weapon, parades, rallies like "Immortal regiment" etc. As I told cult of war tied with education and church. And Great Victory Cult now became the secob religion in Russia.  All this should be completely removed especailly on cross period. History of wars and role of Russian in its have to be studied based on science, not on ideocracy. 

Inner factors. There is very tough to fix moods and patterns, composed during centuries.

- Church role. Russian version of Orthodox faith provide several dangerous mind settings - do not rise against powers (sacralized power!) and be obedient to powers, abasement of person with a word "slave of the God", suffering and humility is a right way (so Russian belives that their dads and fathers sufferes and built great country, so they have to suffer for the some great goals), "pray, all the Will of God" (brings up life passivity and expectation some high-ranked official or some happen will help in their question), do not keen to achieve mundane goods and modern knowledges (for example several years ago Church representative stated the learning of English and other languages is really do not need for true Orthodox and number of school lessons of foreign languages in schools should be shortened). And in the same time Church leader lives in luxury mansions, use luxury cars and spent own time on yachts. This is Russia. 

- povetry breed to the craving to ostentatious wealth and envy to prosprity nations. Despite Church influence, all people want to live in prosperity. Though children of generations, who lived in communal flats with one toilet and kitchen on dozens persons and stood in long queus for Yugoslavian high boots inherited this wish to show own success, posession of expensive things and as a consequence own higer place in social hierarchy - from poor Buriatian village inhabitant, which son brought looted washing machine to middle class, to Russian businessmen and oligarchs, buying up expensive real estate around the world in order each can see his success. So, povetry traumas born an envy to prosperity nations and whishes to stockpile of wealth. Putin, for example, because of his tough childhood has this mind trauma.

- swaggering and feeling of own supremacy. This feature of national menthality was discribed many times by Russian classic writers. Because of "Special mission of Russian nation - nation of God-Bearers" ideas of Russian World concept, most of Russians believed they are special "spiritual" people, all around owes them ("because we won in WWII"). Even if he is "poor Buriatian", which took bank loan to spent own vacation in Egypt or Turkey he will behave himself as a middle-east sultan. He will be humilitate personnel or demonstratively disrespect the culture of other country or nation. Even Russian middle class, which fled to Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan is rescenting that there no road things in Russian, no Russian-speaking service (you must know Russian! Are you russophobs?), no employment if you doesn't know local langauge, no cinema in Russian, no school in Russian and too much "non-Russian" around at all, but well, we will change here everything soon!  So, this fearture of mentality is good soil for growing of chavinism.

- cruelty and inner agression. Despite "humanistic Russian culture", the value of life in Russia didn't cost even broken penny. Tough life, hard work, povetry, small salary, especially in deep province have been generating inner agression, developing into carving to alcohol and drugs, showdowns, crimes, harrasments in families, bullings in scholls. In many regions of Russia in last years developed "A.U.E." mass jail cruel sub-culture, involving teenagers. Such spite of so embitterd people enough easyly to support by agressive rhethoric on TV, steering in right direction, blaming in their misery "anglo-saxes", "US and FRS", "Eurogays", "NATO", "jude-massons conspiracy against Holy Russia ", "khokhols, traitors of Russian World" etc.

This list can be continued, but I stop here. There is need to re-educate at least two generations to fix some mentality bugs and instill humanistic values in order to turn the country of Orwel's 1984 into normal peaceful and potentially prospering state. Else the cycle depicted on the cartoon below will be endless

 

Excellent post.

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

My post wasn't about "change beyond the borders", but inside Russia by new hypothetic government.

heh see my earlier post referencing Japan?  They have a somewhat different view of ww2 than say I do.  This is the source of some of their relationship problems with S Korea and other Asian nations who felt the brunt of the IJA.

It has been over 75 years and a country we have very good relations with.

Honestly, I have no idea what it will take before Russians will be able to critically analyze their own society.

Edited September 29, 2022 by sburke

[Kinophile]

@Zeleban @akd

JINX! NO COME BACK!

Cant post until someone says your name!

...to paraphrase my 10 yr old ....

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

20 minutes ago, sburke said:

playing chicken with a guy that we are pretty sure already has a crap reliable intel network and may not be playing with a full deck doesn't seem like a good recipe for success.

 

8 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Like playing chicken with a half deaf, semi-blind rottweiler.

It's still a rottweiler.

More like a rat.

In a series of interviews published as a quasi-autobiography during his rise to power two decades ago, Putin recalled chasing big rodents with a stick around his dismal, communal apartment building in St. Petersburg, then known as Leningrad: 

“There, on that stair landing, I got a quick and lasting lesson in the meaning of the word ‘cornered.’ There were hordes of rats in the front entryway. My friends and I used to chase them around with sticks. Once I spotted a huge rat and pursued it down the hall until I drove it into a corner. It had nowhere to run. Suddenly it lashed around and threw itself at me. I was surprised and frightened. Now the rat was chasing me. It jumped across the landing and down the stairs. Luckily, I was a little faster and I managed to slam the door on its nose.”

https://www.vice.com/en/article/v7dxax/the-new-russia-anxiety-what-putin-might-do-if-he-feels-cornered

 

[dan/california]

16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Oh, this requires many writing, but this is impolite to ignore a question, so... 

On my opinion, rashism is a new form of agressive expansionistic and revanсhist ideology, offered by ruling elites to wide mass of Russians as state ideocratia.  This ideology based on of Euro-Asian philosophy of Dugin, "Russian World", "Moscow is Third Rome", USSR 2.0 conceptions. Motivation - whishes of revanchism and domination of Russain elites, which want a redistribution of economical and political influence spheres in the world, contesting the West in hybrid way in the form of restoration of lost Russain Empire (even not USSR) influence sphere and its expanding on other countries. 

Derashization will be VERY long process, which will take maybe two next generations and like said Poesel it will be almost useless for most of curerntly living population, because people over 35-40 years with big difficalty can change own mind settings. 

Because rashism is a product of symbiothic system of power and people's aspirations it has two forming components - outer and inner. Thus, to derashize a nation we have to strike on two components simultainously. Germans in most, I think, were affected only by outer component of nazism. German nation was more civilized and educated, than nations of USSR in 30th. So, German way: punish nazi + force demonstration to Germans consequenses of nazism + "don't ask don't tell" will be insufficient, because in Russian case big role plays inner factors of Russian mentality. So, I think, more proper example should be Japan, where local militaristic ideology also leaned on local mentality and traditions.    

So, outer factors:

- Neo-imperial phylosophy.  New authorities must recognize and condemn publicly Euroasian/ Russian World/ USSR 2.0 conceptions as neo-imperialistic and colonial. Their place should be near Mein Kampf for learning by hystorians.

- Ideocracy. Rashism now is a obligue state ideology like communism of USSR time. All state media provide only ideocratic messges. Alternmative thoughts and critic allowed only for minor aspects. If oppopse thougts appear on state TV as opponents of state mainstream, it's usually give like marginals and freaks. Remedy -  ideocracy must be destroyed. Returning real pluralism in media, like this was in early Yeltsin's times. Media have to show widely crimes of former Russian elites - both against other nations and against Russian people. Though, I must point that several investigations of independent Russian journalists about Putin's palaces and luxury life of oligarchs, which posessed almost all Russian actives and have been turning  income in own huge palaces and yachts, instead to develop Russia, almost didn't have responce from society. Most of Russians consider this is natural order of things for Russia. Though, anyway,  the big role in quick falling of USSR ideology played a role of Gorbachov's "glasnost", when millions for relatively short time learned about communist crimes and that West is not "rotten", but much more successfull, that Soviet paradise.

- "Ruling and ordering" party. Like Communist Party in USSR, modern "Unite Russia" plays the same role, providing ideocracy to regions. All other parties just a puppets, imitating democracy, even they criticize main party, lile Communists or LDPR. Remedy - establishing in future of real diffrent democracy political platforms. But on the time of "crossing period" Russian have to be ruled by "steel hand in velvet glove", leaning on some political force.

- Educational system. Ideocracy complete occupied all education system - from kindergardens to univercities. The vertical region government - educational department - director - teachers maintains state ideology line. Kids from small years have been learning "Russian supremacy" ideology, based on lessons of hystory, when Russia always held just wars for the sake of defending of oppresed, carry enlightmnent and freedom and always won, glorifying Russian weapon. All this backed up with endless cult of war with dressing in WWII uniform, kids "military parades" and as final stage membership in state paramilitary organizations like "Junior Army" or cossacks, studing in numerous classes in many usual scholls with reinforcement military and phisical training. All this also to the statemant "kids are not guilt". Of course, their choice can be caused by parents or teachers, but membership in "Junior Army" usually their deliberate choice. On other hand teachers are obedient performers of election falsifications, because voting points mostly located in schools and teachers usually are most of committee members. So the remedy - demilitarisation of schools, new course of history, releasing of teachers from the brutal pressure of officials, demanding to execute.

- Orthodox church. Despite in Russian Constitution claimed separating of church from the state, but indeed like in Tsar times, Church became a lean of state ideocracy and a tool of state power sacralization. The Church is a main conductor of "Russian world" and "Moscow is a Third Rome" conception as well as huge amount of weird anti-semith conspiracy. Church blesses Russian agreesision, Church is a provider of intolerance to other Christainic confessions and intolerance to other thinking. Church supports the cult of war - all can recall real devilish Main Military Cathedral, which looks like a God of War temple. The Church interferring more and more in everyday life of Russians. Church more and more sneak to education system, but not for some sort ethic or religion knowledges, really need for youngsters, but for implementing of "Russian world" ideology and typical Russian life principles, which form inner factors of rashism. Remedy - changing of Church leaders on more moderate, real expelling idecracy influence of Church from educational system.

- Cult of war and Great Victory. All Russian life pierced with mentions about wars and victories, public interactive demonstrations of weapon, parades, rallies like "Immortal regiment" etc. As I told cult of war tied with education and church. And Great Victory Cult now became the secob religion in Russia.  All this should be completely removed especailly on cross period. History of wars and role of Russian in its have to be studied based on science, not on ideocracy. 

Inner factors. There is very tough to fix moods and patterns, composed during centuries.

- Church role. Russian version of Orthodox faith provide several dangerous mind settings - do not rise against powers (sacralized power!) and be obedient to powers, abasement of person with a word "slave of the God", suffering and humility is a right way (so Russian belives that their dads and fathers sufferes and built great country, so they have to suffer for the some great goals), "pray, all the Will of God" (brings up life passivity and expectation some high-ranked official or some happen will help in their question), do not keen to achieve mundane goods and modern knowledges (for example several years ago Church representative stated the learning of English and other languages is really do not need for true Orthodox and number of school lessons of foreign languages in schools should be shortened). And in the same time Church leader lives in luxury mansions, use luxury cars and spent own time on yachts. This is Russia. 

- povetry breed to the craving to ostentatious wealth and envy to prosprity nations. Despite Church influence, all people want to live in prosperity. Though children of generations, who lived in communal flats with one toilet and kitchen on dozens persons and stood in long queus for Yugoslavian high boots inherited this wish to show own success, posession of expensive things and as a consequence own higer place in social hierarchy - from poor Buriatian village inhabitant, which son brought looted washing machine to middle class, to Russian businessmen and oligarchs, buying up expensive real estate around the world in order each can see his success. So, povetry traumas born an envy to prosperity nations and whishes to stockpile of wealth. Putin, for example, because of his tough childhood has this mind trauma.

- swaggering and feeling of own supremacy. This feature of national menthality was discribed many times by Russian classic writers. Because of "Special mission of Russian nation - nation of God-Bearers" ideas of Russian World concept, most of Russians believed they are special "spiritual" people, all around owes them ("because we won in WWII"). Even if he is "poor Buriatian", which took bank loan to spent own vacation in Egypt or Turkey he will behave himself as a middle-east sultan. He will be humilitate personnel or demonstratively disrespect the culture of other country or nation. Even Russian middle class, which fled to Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan is rescenting that there no road things in Russian, no Russian-speaking service (you must know Russian! Are you russophobs?), no employment if you doesn't know local langauge, no cinema in Russian, no school in Russian and too much "non-Russian" around at all, but well, we will change here everything soon!  So, this fearture of mentality is good soil for growing of chavinism.

- cruelty and inner agression. Despite "humanistic Russian culture", the value of life in Russia didn't cost even broken penny. Tough life, hard work, povetry, small salary, especially in deep province have been generating inner agression, developing into carving to alcohol and drugs, showdowns, crimes, harrasments in families, bullings in scholls. In many regions of Russia in last years developed "A.U.E." mass jail cruel sub-culture, involving teenagers. Such spite of so embitterd people enough easyly to support by agressive rhethoric on TV, steering in right direction, blaming in their misery "anglo-saxes", "US and FRS", "Eurogays", "NATO", "jude-massons conspiracy against Holy Russia ", "khokhols, traitors of Russian World" etc.

This list can be continued, but I stop here. There is need to re-educate at least two generations to fix some mentality bugs and instill humanistic values in order to turn the country of Orwel's 1984 into normal peaceful and potentially prospering state. Else the cycle depicted on the cartoon below will be endless

 

Yes, an EXCELLENT post.

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

heh see my earlier post referencing Japan?  They have a somewhat different view of ww2 than say I do.  This is the source of some of their relationship problems with S Korea and other Asian nations who felt the brunt of the IJA.

It has been over 75 years and a country we have very good relations with.

Honestly, I have no idea what it will take before Russians will be able to critically analyze their own society.

Losing a war seems to be only thing actually, historically speaking. Unfortunately they always draw poor conclusions.

[dan/california]

24 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Interesting fact. The video describes the breakthrough of the fortified areas "Moscow" and "Piter", while the main role was played by 4 tanks, which were controlled by the tank company commander, who used a quadrocopter to control and not the control method when the commander is directly in combat formations. The fighters described this method of control as very effective. (unfortunately the video has no english subtitles)

And if the Ukrainians can put that together, on a shoestring, in the middle of a shooting war it will pretty much be the standard going forward, if it isn't already. I suspect that company commander is going to be part of that staff college speaking tour.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Ultradave said:

Cease to exist how? We're not going to invade and roll all the way to Moscow and depose the Russian government. It could cease to exist on an entity on it's own as a result of being beaten back by Ukraine. 

 

57 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I put this in the category as the "escalate to deescalate" takes. Galeev is making the mistake of trying to project a frame onto Putin and what is unknowable going on in his head. It's smarter and safer, imho, to simply pay attention to what Putin is doing. And what he's doing is escalating in a step by step fashion across a broad range of theaters of conflict. He is making no case at all to the Russian people that NATO or the US is unbeatable. Quite the opposite, in fact.

Everybody on this board, i think, understands that Putins second best option was to declare Kyiv had learned its lesson, and go home at the end of the first week in March. His best option was not to start the war. He didn't pick either of those choices, he has doubled down on losing hands steadily ever since.

Galeev has been generally well received on this board by most people, most of the time. His analysis, and mine though that matters less, is that Putin isn't going to reverse course now.  So is there a point where NATO needs to go from being entirely reactive, and try to gain the initiative? Or do we just keep hoping the air finally goes out of Putins balloon? 

Edited September 29, 2022 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

BVP-80A squad in action somewhere on South

 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

BVP-80A squad in action somewhere on South

 

That is a real fight, bleep me. Would love to get more context on that one some day.

[dan/california]

She summed up so much more than just what she was specifically talking about there.

[Grigb]

Mashkovets wrote an interesting post. I put it on the map. 

[dan/california]

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-inquiry/how-the-war-in-ukraine-might-end

I just read this excellent article that billindc recommended, everyone else should read it too.

[billbindc]

17 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Everybody on this board, i think, understands that Putins second best option was to declare Kyiv had learned its lesson, and go home at the end of the first week in March. His best option was not to start the war. He didn't pick either of those choices, he has doubled down on losing hands steadily ever since.

Galeev has been generally well received on this board by most people, most of the time. His analysis, and mine though that matters less, is that Putin isn't going to reverse course now.  So is there a point where NATO needs to go from being entirely reactive, and try to gain the initiative? Or do we just keep hoping the air finally goes out of Putins balloon? 

Two things are unassailably true: 

1. Russia is losing in Ukraine because of Ukrainian will and Western arms. 

2. Russia has 6000+ nuclear weapons and can initiate the end of civilization. 

The conclusions that I draw from those facts are that NATO *already* has the initiative.

Fact 1 is why Russia is fumbling around in the escalation drawer for less conventional ways to change the course of the war. Wrecking pipelines is about trying to affect ally unity and political support. Threatening nukes is about trying to destroy Ukrainian and Western will to fight. Cyber attacks are already in full swing and more extreme versions will happen. The course of the war is going our way and it's Putin who must regain the initiative or give it up.

Fact 2 is why we don't want to speed up the war's course. We can't militarily overthrow Putin. We *can* out fight his army while sanctions, political developments and battlefield losses erode his ability to continue. I get it, we want it over soon. But forcing it just increases the chances that panic or a mistake sends things into an apocalyptic scenario.

 

 

 

 

[The_Capt]

39 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Oh, this requires many writing, but this is impolite to ignore a question, so... 

On my opinion, rashism is a new form of agressive expansionistic and revanсhist ideology, offered by ruling elites to wide mass of Russians as state ideocratia.  This ideology based on of Euro-Asian philosophy of Dugin, "Russian World", "Moscow is Third Rome", USSR 2.0 conceptions. Motivation - whishes of revanchism and domination of Russain elites, which want a redistribution of economical and political influence spheres in the world, contesting the West in hybrid way in the form of restoration of lost Russain Empire (even not USSR) influence sphere and its expanding on other countries. 

Derashization will be VERY long process, which will take maybe two next generations and like said Poesel it will be almost useless for most of curerntly living population, because people over 35-40 years with big difficalty can change own mind settings. 

Because rashism is a product of symbiothic system of power and people's aspirations it has two forming components - outer and inner. Thus, to derashize a nation we have to strike on two components simultainously. Germans in most, I think, were affected only by outer component of nazism. German nation was more civilized and educated, than nations of USSR in 30th. So, German way: punish nazi + force demonstration to Germans consequenses of nazism + "don't ask don't tell" will be insufficient, because in Russian case big role plays inner factors of Russian mentality. So, I think, more proper example should be Japan, where local militaristic ideology also leaned on local mentality and traditions.    

So, outer factors:

- Neo-imperial phylosophy.  New authorities must recognize and condemn publicly Euroasian/ Russian World/ USSR 2.0 conceptions as neo-imperialistic and colonial. Their place should be near Mein Kampf for learning by hystorians.

- Ideocracy. Rashism now is a obligue state ideology like communism of USSR time. All state media provide only ideocratic messges. Alternmative thoughts and critic allowed only for minor aspects. If oppopse thougts appear on state TV as opponents of state mainstream, it's usually give like marginals and freaks. Remedy -  ideocracy must be destroyed. Returning real pluralism in media, like this was in early Yeltsin's times. Media have to show widely crimes of former Russian elites - both against other nations and against Russian people. Though, I must point that several investigations of independent Russian journalists about Putin's palaces and luxury life of oligarchs, which posessed almost all Russian actives and have been turning  income in own huge palaces and yachts, instead to develop Russia, almost didn't have responce from society. Most of Russians consider this is natural order of things for Russia. Though, anyway,  the big role in quick falling of USSR ideology played a role of Gorbachov's "glasnost", when millions for relatively short time learned about communist crimes and that West is not "rotten", but much more successfull, that Soviet paradise.

- "Ruling and ordering" party. Like Communist Party in USSR, modern "Unite Russia" plays the same role, providing ideocracy to regions. All other parties just a puppets, imitating democracy, even they criticize main party, lile Communists or LDPR. Remedy - establishing in future of real diffrent democracy political platforms. But on the time of "crossing period" Russian have to be ruled by "steel hand in velvet glove", leaning on some political force.

- Educational system. Ideocracy complete occupied all education system - from kindergardens to univercities. The vertical region government - educational department - director - teachers maintains state ideology line. Kids from small years have been learning "Russian supremacy" ideology, based on lessons of hystory, when Russia always held just wars for the sake of defending of oppresed, carry enlightmnent and freedom and always won, glorifying Russian weapon. All this backed up with endless cult of war with dressing in WWII uniform, kids "military parades" and as final stage membership in state paramilitary organizations like "Junior Army" or cossacks, studing in numerous classes in many usual scholls with reinforcement military and phisical training. All this also to the statemant "kids are not guilt". Of course, their choice can be caused by parents or teachers, but membership in "Junior Army" usually their deliberate choice. On other hand teachers are obedient performers of election falsifications, because voting points mostly located in schools and teachers usually are most of committee members. So the remedy - demilitarisation of schools, new course of history, releasing of teachers from the brutal pressure of officials, demanding to execute.

- Orthodox church. Despite in Russian Constitution claimed separating of church from the state, but indeed like in Tsar times, Church became a lean of state ideocracy and a tool of state power sacralization. The Church is a main conductor of "Russian world" and "Moscow is a Third Rome" conception as well as huge amount of weird anti-semith conspiracy. Church blesses Russian agreesision, Church is a provider of intolerance to other Christainic confessions and intolerance to other thinking. Church supports the cult of war - all can recall real devilish Main Military Cathedral, which looks like a God of War temple. The Church interferring more and more in everyday life of Russians. Church more and more sneak to education system, but not for some sort ethic or religion knowledges, really need for youngsters, but for implementing of "Russian world" ideology and typical Russian life principles, which form inner factors of rashism. Remedy - changing of Church leaders on more moderate, real expelling idecracy influence of Church from educational system.

- Cult of war and Great Victory. All Russian life pierced with mentions about wars and victories, public interactive demonstrations of weapon, parades, rallies like "Immortal regiment" etc. As I told cult of war tied with education and church. And Great Victory Cult now became the secob religion in Russia.  All this should be completely removed especailly on cross period. History of wars and role of Russian in its have to be studied based on science, not on ideocracy. 

Inner factors. There is very tough to fix moods and patterns, composed during centuries.

- Church role. Russian version of Orthodox faith provide several dangerous mind settings - do not rise against powers (sacralized power!) and be obedient to powers, abasement of person with a word "slave of the God", suffering and humility is a right way (so Russian belives that their dads and fathers sufferes and built great country, so they have to suffer for the some great goals), "pray, all the Will of God" (brings up life passivity and expectation some high-ranked official or some happen will help in their question), do not keen to achieve mundane goods and modern knowledges (for example several years ago Church representative stated the learning of English and other languages is really do not need for true Orthodox and number of school lessons of foreign languages in schools should be shortened). And in the same time Church leader lives in luxury mansions, use luxury cars and spent own time on yachts. This is Russia. 

- povetry breed to the craving to ostentatious wealth and envy to prosprity nations. Despite Church influence, all people want to live in prosperity. Though children of generations, who lived in communal flats with one toilet and kitchen on dozens persons and stood in long queus for Yugoslavian high boots inherited this wish to show own success, posession of expensive things and as a consequence own higer place in social hierarchy - from poor Buriatian village inhabitant, which son brought looted washing machine to middle class, to Russian businessmen and oligarchs, buying up expensive real estate around the world in order each can see his success. So, povetry traumas born an envy to prosperity nations and whishes to stockpile of wealth. Putin, for example, because of his tough childhood has this mind trauma.

- swaggering and feeling of own supremacy. This feature of national menthality was discribed many times by Russian classic writers. Because of "Special mission of Russian nation - nation of God-Bearers" ideas of Russian World concept, most of Russians believed they are special "spiritual" people, all around owes them ("because we won in WWII"). Even if he is "poor Buriatian", which took bank loan to spent own vacation in Egypt or Turkey he will behave himself as a middle-east sultan. He will be humilitate personnel or demonstratively disrespect the culture of other country or nation. Even Russian middle class, which fled to Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan is rescenting that there no road things in Russian, no Russian-speaking service (you must know Russian! Are you russophobs?), no employment if you doesn't know local langauge, no cinema in Russian, no school in Russian and too much "non-Russian" around at all, but well, we will change here everything soon!  So, this fearture of mentality is good soil for growing of chavinism.

- cruelty and inner agression. Despite "humanistic Russian culture", the value of life in Russia didn't cost even broken penny. Tough life, hard work, povetry, small salary, especially in deep province have been generating inner agression, developing into carving to alcohol and drugs, showdowns, crimes, harrasments in families, bullings in scholls. In many regions of Russia in last years developed "A.U.E." mass jail cruel sub-culture, involving teenagers. Such spite of so embitterd people enough easyly to support by agressive rhethoric on TV, steering in right direction, blaming in their misery "anglo-saxes", "US and FRS", "Eurogays", "NATO", "jude-massons conspiracy against Holy Russia ", "khokhols, traitors of Russian World" etc.

This list can be continued, but I stop here. There is need to re-educate at least two generations to fix some mentality bugs and instill humanistic values in order to turn the country of Orwel's 1984 into normal peaceful and potentially prospering state. Else the cycle depicted on the cartoon below will be endless

 

Well finally a well written explanation - thanks for that.

Big problems, very big problems though - you are talking about social engineering on an extremely wide scale for 140 million people.  Beyond the ethical issues - for example, how can we conduct this action and avoid erasing Russian identity and risking cultural genocide?  What you are describing sound a lot like a larger version of the indigenous re-education attempts here in North America and frankly no good came of that as the system was far to open to abuse and we were basically erasing a culture, which is expressly illegal. 

I would give you the benefit of the doubt on some assessments, although they really risk one-sizing 140 millions people (e.g. cruelty and inner aggression), I mean Europeans did some brutal stuff to indigenous people all over the world because of similar narratives.  To even try to sell that concept you would need a lot of science behind it and then would have to live with result if they do not align with what you may think.

Lastly, and it is a doozy, assuming you have framed the problem correctly and even come up with the perfect social engineering plan - the cost of doing this is insane.  We are talking a total defeat of Russia, followed by a 50 year occupation where we would need to rule these people as strict dictatorship.  I mean based on your logic no Russian could opt not to be re-educated.  So you want to fully occupy and govern a nation of 140 million of nothing but irreconcilable trouble.  Right off the bat we are talking a security operation well beyond post WW2 Germany or Japan.  Very likely insurgency from hell as we take casualties year after year while leaving ourselves open to every security operation going sideways.

Seriously, even if I did accept the initial premise - which I do not and broad stroking any nation/race/ethnicity to this degree would constitute blatant racism were it pointed at anyone else - the execution is pure fantasy.  This isn’t nation building it is nation deconstruction.

Finally, my honest advice to all of the Ukrainian posters here who seem to be forming up on these solutions is to take it off the air and keep it to yourselves.  Reason: because you come off as dangerous racists and extremists who are going to accomplish nothing but turning off the audiences you need for support.  Were I to honestly believe that your government support what you or kraze outline, I would also have serious second thoughts about support to greater military capability.  Why would I risk giving ATACMS to people who appear to refuse to recognize non-combatants, which is enshrined by international law?  I would be risking arming people who are looking to break those laws, making me culpable in the commission of warcrimes.

Now for the record, I am very sure your government does not support this narrative.  They have instead been fighting an honourable and legal war against an opponent who refuses to do the same.  However, by representing you nation here like this, you are hurting that record with this audience.

Finally, before anyone tries the “but you do not understand”, I have been on the ground for a genocide, I know exactly what it looks like.  It wasn’t soldiers who marched men, women and children into shallow graves at places like Bakovici - it was their neighbours and they were talking a lot like what I am hearing here.

 

[Huba]

On the phone so no summary, but the latest Rybar update is out and it does not look good:

 

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Two things are unassailably true: 

1. Russia is losing in Ukraine because of Ukrainian will and Western arms. 

2. Russia has 6000+ nuclear weapons and can initiate the end of civilization. 

The conclusions that I draw from those facts are that NATO *already* has the initiative.

Fact 1 is why Russia is fumbling around in the escalation drawer for less conventional ways to change the course of the war. Wrecking pipelines is about trying to affect ally unity and political support. Threatening nukes is about trying to destroy Ukrainian and Western will to fight. Cyber attacks are already in full swing and more extreme versions will happen. The course of the war is going our way and it's Putin who must regain the initiative or give it up.

Fact 2 is why we don't want to speed up the war's course. We can't militarily overthrow Putin. We *can* out fight his army while sanctions, political developments and battlefield losses erode his ability to continue. I get it, we want it over soon. But forcing it just increases the chances that panic or a mistake sends things into an apocalyptic scenario.

 

 

 

 

And the BTUs under the frogs pot have been duly been increased by 1.5%....

[Harmon Rabb]

8 minutes ago, Huba said:

On the phone so no summary, but the latest Rybar update is out and it does not look good:

 

No it does not look good...It looks VERY good.

[Huba]

Lyman officially surrounded according to WarGonzo:

 

[Bulletpoint]

So, tomorrow Putin will publicly declare that the "republics" are now part of Russia. Then what?

He hopes mobilisation will allow him to keep them.

When that fails, and Ukraine starts taking back Luhansk and Donetsk... then what?

 

Putin knows that these areas are in high risk of being lost. Yet he chooses to double down and gamble his whole prestige on them now being Russia.

They are building the tribune outside the Kremlin now:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63072113

[Grigb]

40 minutes ago, Huba said:

On the phone so no summary, but the latest Rybar update is out and it does not look good:

 

Yes.

Rybar is a bit vague. He explicitly says the road Lyman-Torske-Makiivka-Svatove is cut but also says Torkse is not taken. So, most likely UKR reached the road somewhere around Nevske and Makeiivka itself.

Rybar concludes

Quote

At this stage, without the transfer of significant reinforcements and the concentration of attention of the command of the Armed Forces of RU in the Liman direction, there is a serious risk of the fall of the Lyman and further collapse of the defensive formations of the Armed Forces of RU on the western borders of the Luhansk People's Republic.

I would say RU is about to counter-attack with "Tajikistan" BTGrs as per Mashkovets post above.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Grigb

[NamEndedAllen]

18 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup.  Serbia is the closest example to Russia and, as I stated, it is doing pretty well historically speaking.  Still lots of rough edges, but the recent tensions with Kosovo shows that Serbia has fundamentally changed for the better.

Other examples are the former Warsaw Pact countries, the Baltics, the Balkans, and Georgia.  Of all of these only the DDR was "occupied" in the sense that it didn't pursue it's own independent path.  The rest of these countries had minimal experience with democratic principles because of Russian and/or Soviet domination.  Not all are shining beacons of democratic principles, or have times of stumbling, but they are all headed in the right direction.

I am less familiar with other parts of the world, but Vietnam has made some very interesting changes over the years.  South Korea is better than it has been, Taiwan as well.  Mongolia is doing quite well from what I can tell.

There's a huge variety of good/bad stuff in the mix of countries I just mentioned, but the point is all of these nations had pretty dismal track records of Human Rights and, in the case of the Balkans, genocide (let's not forget Serbia wasn't the only one guilty of atrocities).  Nobody occupied them to set them on a better path.

As I look back the primary problem with the West and Russia is that the West didn't ask much of Russia after the Soviet Union collapsed.  It pretty much let it do its own thing, as it did with the other countries mentioned.  Nothing was done to dissuade Russia from continuing on with its history of mass murder and crushing internal dissent with violence.  Therefore, it didn't change because it didn't see the need to change.

This is where Russia today and Serbia are quite different.  Serbia lost and lost big time.  By the time Serbia had recovered it found its neighbors were more than a match for them in every way.  NATO played a critical role in this being the case.  Therefore, even if Serbia's government wanted to wage a war of revenge it wasn't practical any more.

And finally, a country I have not mentioned yet is Ukraine.  One of the primary reasons Russia has interfered and invaded Ukraine is because it was headed down the road to responsible government.  Nobody occupied Ukraine and forced it to be more democratic and less corrupt, it's done this on its own.  Most impressively it's done it despite massive efforts by Russia to undermine it, this war being the clearest example of that.

The answer to the question "can Russia be reformed without occupying it?" is a definite YES based on historical precedent.  The question "will Russia reform?" is a very different question and one we can not answer.  My hope is YES, but that depends on a lot of things in the air now landing in the right spots.

Steve

Steve thanks for your thoughtful and in depth response. Last night I wrote back an even more in-depth response filled with insights and scholarship  - brilliant, really. And when I hit “reply”, it disappeared into a crack in space. On this tablet apparently I get logged out after not too long an interval. Lesson learned.

Serbia and Vietnam both interesting cases, reasonable success in forging new international relations after bitter conflicts. Both might offer ideas for how the nations who opposed them managed their relationships in the aftermath. Serbia is a good call, reasonably close to the Russia scenario of the aftermath of unoccupied bitter country after that conflict. But no one really expects a similar full on NATO bombing campaign in Russia - unless of course it crosses that one Very Big Bright Red Line. It would be useful to know how the various NATO nations managed relations with Serbia afterward.

Vietnam also similar in being a country in war and invasions against its neighbors. But it was the victor, not bitterly licking its wounds after withdrawing in battlefield defeats. It decided its own future un impeded “unmanaged” - by the exhausted losers in that war. But those losers and Vietnam did develop surprisingly decent relations over time. Not a terrible outcome from Vietnam’s perspective.

I don’t see an analogous template for the other Warsaw Pact/former USSR republics you mention. They were not invaders of their neighbors, and then defeated on the battlefield and withdrawing w/o surrendering. On the contrary, most seemed eager and delighted to be out from under the thumb of the Soviet Union, aiming at joining a wider brighter world. Taiwan and ROK did fight bitter wars but they were civil wars, both with outside major power involvement. But like the former Soviet republics, they were embracing the West’s opportunities not struggling against it, having lost to Western intervention. 

There really isn’t any close analogy for managing the shaping of a huge power like Russia. Defeated on the battlefield but not surrendering. Bitter and angry within its borders, its territory untouched by invasion. Once again seeing itself ganged up on by the West,“unfairly” denied re-acquiring its own lost territory (Russian perspective!). Just like last time but WORSE, when the USSR collapsed and it trusted the West. And it happened AGAIN! This time, with tens of thousands dead or maimed for life. I think that is the likely emotion and mindset within Russia after a Ukraine victory. Turn to the Strong Man, the “only I can fix it” savior man.

This might be one of those strive for the least bad outcome crises. The idea that the world would be safer after a collapse, with several anger chaotic splinter states armed with combinations of nuclear weapons, boomer subs, chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction - all embittered against LOSING… no way! The EU, the USA, Britain would have a *lot* more to worry about than just Ukraine’s well being!  
 

The Capt’ iirc many pages ago argued eloquently and in detail not only for thoughtful caution but for a still terrible but reasonable dictator who could hold Russia together and be contained by the rest of the world. Until next time. Because you can’t alway always get what you want in a world.

And I hate that.