How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

The KP correspondent, Alexander Kots, offers this advice to those about to be mobilized:

What to take with you when mobilizing and how to behave: a list of things and tips for mobilized

https://www.kp.ru/daily/27451/4654593/

Here is a snippet

(Google Translation)

Quote

If you are assigned to the first or second line, then you will have to live mainly in the ground. Therefore, you can leave your dreams of tank breakthroughs and marksmanship until better times. Your main friend in positional battles will be a shovel.

 

[Battlefront.com]

ISW report for today is out already!  That's nice

Nothing much in today's report that we haven't already discussed.  Which is kinda fun to think about... we cover as much here as ISW even when we're swamped with discussions that aren't directly related to the war.  Now that's something!

The main thing in this report is confirmation that Russians in the Lyman area are seriously fooked.  RU Nat bloggers are predicting they won't hold out much longer.  Which, as ISW states, is a problem given that Russia hasn't done anything to create a cover story for this pending loss or the further loss of territory after Lyman is secured.

It also mentioned what we've been noticing here and there, which is that Russia is still reinforcing Kherson.  This tells us that they have taken significant losses and without reinforcements are in danger of losing significant ground.  It also tells us that Russia is obsessed with keeping this militarily useless bit of ground.  Which is good for Ukraine because it means Russia will continue to waste its resources and keep them all nice and bottled up for Ukraine to (eventually) destroy.

Another point made was about the Duma's request that Putin put off the announcement of the "referendums".  The Duma no doubt was asked to do that by Putin.  The speculation is that Putin wants a couple more days for the shock of mobilization to calm down, in part by some attempts to reverse cases of people being grabbed who don't fit Putin's stated criteria.  There is some detailing of these efforts at the bottom of the report.  This makes sense because the referendum are, in part, intended to give Putin's failing regime some sort of Crimean boost.  That's not going to happen with the public mood as it is.  Probably won't happen later, but delaying offers a possibility vs. none.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Sorry folks, try as I might I can’ delete those miskeyed posts what I wanted to say was:

Yeah, we don't allow the unwashed masses to delete posts.  I, however, am part of the ruling elite.  I just waved my scepter and removed your mistaken posts.  After all, I am a benevolent overlord.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

46 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Wow, this thread certainly went to hell quickly (sorry to single you out)!

As much as like Airplane and memes coming from one of the best movies ever made, this is the sort of thing I asked you to not do.  It gets people going with responses and that detracts from the various topics of discussion.

If you had crap tastes in movies and music then people would just ignore you instead of chiming in.  Which means you are, in a way, a victim of your own superior cultural sensibilities.

But seriously, please refrain.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

As much as like Airplane and memes coming from one of the best movies ever made, this is the sort of thing I asked you to not do.  It gets people going with responses and that detracts from the various topics of discussion.

If you had crap tastes in movies and music then people would just ignore you instead of chiming in.  Which means you are, in a way, a victim of your own superior cultural sensibilities.

But seriously, please refrain.

Steve

Noted. And thanks, I think.

https://kyivindependent.com/national/why-is-russia-so-vulnerable-to-himars-in-ukraine

Russian supply lines depend on railway communications, which inevitably keeps them bound to railway stations and junctions. Russian military bloggers have admitted that switching to a more flexible system would take months or even years, which is not a viable solution during the ongoing war.  

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[cesmonkey]

I find some amusement these days by perusing the readers comments on the stories posted to the Russian newswire site: 
https://ria.ru/

The comments range from the unflinching-patriotism to biting satire.  I assume that not all of the participants are located in Russia.

Here is a sample of comments on the article: 

https://ria.ru/20220928/rossiya-1819905099.html
Russia cannot afford to lose
(Google Translation)
 

Quote

More such articles! maybe people will start waking up from their blissful dreams, pulling a piece of pizza out of their mouths and start thinking!

Quote

We've already won. The announcement of the world's first partial mobilization only confirms the victory. Western citizens have panicked and are fleeing the country

Quote

Maybe. You just need to say that you won. Like in Syria. And everyone will agree.

Quote

To do this, the commander-in-chief must do everything to help the soldiers not die in vain! When the infrastructure of the enemy is not fundamentally destroyed, the question arises, who is in charge?

 

[Battlefront.com]

Heh... I just thought of something.  Why aren't the experts who were talking about Russia's various "operational pauses", that weren't anything of the sort, calling the Ukrainian activities east of the Oskil an "operational pause"?  Because that's what it seems like to me.

From what we know Ukraine's forces that swept through Kharkiv are still largely in the area as there's been only minor rumors of some forces being pulled out (there's also been some rumors that more have been committed!).  We know these forces outclass what the Russians have in the area in terms of quality, quantity, and diversity.  It is unlikely they are making modest gains because of Russian resistance, especially north of Lyman.

My guess is that Ukraine is getting everything into place for another big push.  And that push is coming soon, despite the weather.

We've talked about how the breach of Russian lines near Kreminna seems to have been quite restrained until the north of Lyman was compromised.  This indicates that Ukraine, not surprisingly, has a plan and is able to coordinate its execution.

Looks like what Ukraine is doing is ensuring that it crushes the Russians at Lyman before moving further east.  This is sensible because it keeps the front fairly straight and reduces the risk of Russia pulling a small scale surprise somewhere that disrupts attention from Lyman.

I'm guessing that for now they will be satisfied with taking up a line from Troitske, Svatove, and Kreminna.  It has to be cautious about the border with Russia increasing as there's no chance of Ukraine being able to effectively neutralize threats from there.  Which means the further it pushes into Luhansk, the longer the front it has to defend. 

Perhaps a smart thing to do would be to anchor the northern advance at Troitske and continue to push through Svatove towards Starobilsk.  This also causes the frontage to increase, but it also denies Russia an easy way to hit Ukraine from the north.  It also makes any activity towards Severodonetsk more threatening by having a protected flank and disrupted supply lines.

Weather is going to be a factor in this next push, for sure, but it is important for Ukraine to keep Russia from creating new defensive lines with the Mobiks.  Far easier to dislodge crap enemy from no defenses!

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

@Grigb

WarMonitor's topo from yesterday.

So interesting (and telling) that the RU isn't showing any ability to organise defences in this sector beyond holing up in a few towns.

You'd think a hedgehog approach would make some kind of sense for them, delay and attrite while they get their act together. But artillery to bracket the gaps is essential to making that work, and that's not much in evidence here (except on the Ukrainian side).

Wikimapia is also a very interesting resource, as users can annotate (Google) maps with such things as town boundaries, factories and topographical features, sometimes even military features.

Notice that the Kherebets and Krasna rivers (N-S) are fed by E-W ravines (Yars....) which cut up what looks like deceptively open country.

http://wikimapia.org/m/#lat=49.1497024&lon=38.056958&z=11&l=1&m=b

Note also the Kreminski-Kaptazhi Hydrological Reserve (wetlands, pretty nasty this time of year), shielding the NW approach to Kreminna.  To the NE there is a 7012ha regrowth zone from a 1996 wildfire.  So tbh Kreminna looks a lot more like another 'flank and surround' op than a straight punch.

Takeaway: 

1.  Especially with rasputitsa approaching, cross country maneuver is not as easy as it may look on the Google maps. Ergo UA advances will likely be roadbound, with their advances depending heavily on the state of RA disarray.

2.  Key difference being that the Ukes have the infantry to flank and neutralise blocking positions, especially hasty and undermanned ones lacking artillery support.

Edited September 29, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Weather is going to be a factor in this next push, for sure, but it is important for Ukraine to keep Russia from creating new defensive lines with the Mobiks.  Far easier to dislodge crap enemy from no defenses!

We assume the pre 2/24 lines around Luhansk city are more or less intact, yes? Furthermore that line was basically on the Siversky Donets river. So even a force that is 80% mobiks ought to be able to hold them for a while? I also assume the artillery that used to support those original trench lines is massively depleted, and there will not be nearly as much supporting fire available in either quantity or quality? So how does that wind up looking? Will the Ukrainians settle for pushing that far? Or are they going to try and knock Luhansk clean out of the war?

Edited September 29, 2022 by dan/california

[FancyCat]

BBC Russia with a interview of a contract (professional) soldier who returned from Ukraine, this one, Russia is attempting to mobilize him again.

It is very long and details his experience in Ukraine, (he fought in the North during the advance on Kiev, then was withdrawn and redeployed to Izyum, then the battle for Sievierodonetsk, then Popasna before escaping to Russia) but I am particularly interested to see he is a example of the failed professionalization of the Russian military, a artilleryman who fired his first shell ever in Ukraine, despite signing his contract in Spring 2021.

https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-63049481

Edited September 29, 2022 by FancyCat

[Peregrine]

  

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Why aren't the experts who were talking about Russia's various "operational pauses", that weren't anything of the sort, calling the Ukrainian activities east of the Oskil an "operational pause"?  Because that's what it seems like to me.

I was thinking the same thing last week. It could be because this forum has spawned an army of belligerents with the attitude "that's not an operational pause, if you don't use the word right don't use it all" to the point where the term has been stricken from the lexicon of crappy commentary.

Hearing it misused to explain failure so often at the start has left me not wanting to hear it ever. The Battle of Technohouse seems a long time ago.

[Aragorn2002]

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

 

But, of course, we shouldn't kill all Russians, I didn't see this in Kraze posts. 

 

Precisely, but it's a golden opportunity for all those 'enlightened' armchair generals at this forum to show their 'moral superiority'. Personally I'm getting nautious reading all their endless posts. In fact I've started to skip them.

Kraze just hates Russians. And so do I. And they FULLY deserved that. 

But of course we have to be decent, although strict when all this is over in a couple of years. We're no Russians, you know.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Aragorn2002
Strict, not harsh

[kraze]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 I will note that kraze or anyone else spewing this nonsense have offered zero ideas on how to avoid Russian children also being held accountable for actions they literally have no say in - oh, wait don't answer that, I have a pretty good idea what you want already. 

He gave you a well detailed post about how Russia has not changed over centuries and why "russian identity" is not an identity at all and is used to force people of different cultures under some common denominator (mostly through murder), so that both e.g. Kazakh and Azerbaijanian become "russian".

As for this quote - russian children aren't starving (unless not eating McDonald's burgers counts as starving) so I don't see the point of your manipulation. But just in case they will be starving somewhere down the line due to actions of their parents - then, by all means, feed them. Why not? All I'm saying is that Ukraine shouldn't be the one feeding those thus far imaginary starving russian kids.

We have quite literally real ones of ours to deal with atm, but I don't see you demanding russians to feed our kids that lost homes or parents, wonder why it is so?

[Aragorn2002]

17 minutes ago, kraze said:

He gave you a well detailed post about how Russia has not changed over centuries and why "russian identity" is not an identity at all and is used to force people of different cultures under some common denominator (mostly through murder), so that both e.g. Kazakh and Azerbaijanian become "russian".

As for this quote - russian children aren't starving (unless not eating McDonald's burgers counts as starving) so I don't see the point of your manipulation. But just in case they will be starving somewhere down the line due to actions of their parents - then, by all means, feed them. Why not? All I'm saying is that Ukraine shouldn't be the one feeding those thus far imaginary starving russian kids.

We have quite literally real ones of ours to deal with atm, but I don't see you demanding russians to feed our kids that lost homes or parents, wonder why it is so?

Just stop it, Kraze, as much as I agree with you, you're not doing your cause any favors. 

[kraze]

And just to finally end this pointless back and forth topic of misunderstanding - I want to clarify what I want to all people crying "omg you want genocide". I want russian empire to cease existing, ideally, baring that I want a big wall between us and Russia for at least the next century, until they repaid us all the reparations and made sure we rebuilt everything, until this war is just a bunch of pictures in the books to our grand-grandchildren - and if Russia falls down and disintegrates during this time - then I want a big bucket of popcorn and a front seat atop that wall. That's it. I certainly don't want Ukrainians to bloody our hands any more than how it already is. Our lives are too precious for revenge wars.

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, kraze said:

And just to finally end this pointless back and forth topic of misunderstanding - I want to clarify what I want to all people crying "omg you want genocide". I want russian empire to cease existing, ideally, baring that I want a big wall between us and Russia for at least the next century, until they repaid us all the reparations and made sure we rebuilt everything, until this war is just a bunch of pictures in the books to our grand-grandchildren - and if Russia falls down and disintegrates during this time - then I want a big bucket of popcorn and a front seat atop that wall. That's it. I certainly don't want Ukrainians to bloody our hands any more than how it already is. Our lives are too precious for revenge wars.

Well said!

[Grigb]

Infamous old USSR school RU Nat Alksnis commits thought crime (from his VK, sorry did not save the link. Adjusted for readability)

Quote

Drone issue

The Russian Ministry of Defense is in dire need of various types of drones, but most of the UAVs produced in Russia do not meet the requirements of the military department in terms of their tactical and technical characteristics. This was stated by the representative of the Ministry of Defense Igor Ishchuk

The Colonel spoke at the round table "Prospects for the development of unmanned vehicle technologies in the Russian Federation" held in Moscow. According to him, the Russian Defense Ministry has developed requirements for drones, but today most Russian manufacturers are unable to fulfill the requirements, as they do not have the appropriate element base [chips]. Therefore, the military is forced to simplify [it's requirements] to accept drones for trial operation.

"The Ministry of Defense has developed appropriate tactical and technical requirements for unmanned aerial vehicles. And most manufacturers, unfortunately, are not able to fulfill them. And the main problem of non-fulfillment is the element base," Ishchuk said.

Electronics issue

And it should be bitterly acknowledged that there will not be a corresponding domestic element base in the coming years. And the absence of a domestic element base affects not only drones. Today, electronics are the basis of all weapons - from the sight of small arms to the warhead of a strategic missile. Our electronic industry has been deliberately destroyed over the past thirty years during the largest deindustrialization of the country in the world's history. [Never had normal industry in first place] And now it will be almost impossible to restore what was destroyed. There are no appropriate personnel, there are no appropriate technologies, there is no corresponding unique equipment for the production of electronic components, since electronic engineering was destroyed at the same time.  It is impossible to buy all of this abroad. We need huge investments in the restoration of the electronic industry in the amount of several trillion rubles a year. And at the same time, there are no guarantees that these trillions will go into business, and will not just be stolen.  Like it happened during implementation of major government projects. For example, like at Vostochny cosmodrome. [Rogozin!]

RU Armed Forces issue

But the situation with the defense capability of our country is critical. We don't have a modern army, there are practically no modern weapons. And there are only beautiful cartoons [propaganda CGI clips of how RU destroys US], statements about the best weapons in the world, which have no analogues in the world [no analogues - RU propaganda meme akin to German Wunderwaffe], and victorious reports about the second most powerful army in the world.

RU Nuke missiles issue

And the confirmation of this tragic circumstance is the problems with the adoption of the strategic missile "Sarmat", although V.Putin has repeatedly stated that these missiles will be on combat duty this fall. But the R-36M strategic missiles (which are very much feared in the West and which have been given the nickname "Satan" there) have already repeatedly exhausted their resource and need to be urgently replaced by "Sarmats". And there is nothing to replace them with, since only one test launch of the Sarmat has been carried out so far and there have been no more launches, i.e. it has not yet passed the state testing.

RU Wonder weapons issue

And look at what is happening with the serial production of the fifth-generation Su-57 aircraft, of which only four have been accepted by VKS in three years. And how to replace the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet "Moscow", if today we are not able to build ships of the first rank (the rank of [our] cruiser)? And where is the best tank in the world Armata if we are forced to send T-62 tanks from storage to Ukraine - the production of that [tank] was discontinued in 1975?

We must finally realize that a huge danger is hanging over the country and we are not able to effectively prevent it. First of all, because of the consciously carried out deindustrialization of the country. And the only guarantee of our sovereignty and independence is our nuclear missile shield. But we do not know in what condition it is today, given the general state of our Armed Forces.

Alsknis laid out how they are going to throw Putin under the bus - he is traitor/western puppet who sabotaged RU defense capabilities and caused it to lose war with Ukraine.

[Peregrine]

There is a point in history where dozens of smaller nations, entire continent of Africa and tribal indigenous people all over the world could realistically state "insert western nation here" have been brutalising and murdering our people and stealing from us for decades/centuries. These would be truthful statements that could be made at many points in time in history.

It would also be absolutely wrong at those points in time to say it will go on forever and "insert western nation here" will never change unless we beat them down.

Significant lasting cultural change can take decades/centuries or may take a war, or a genocide or increased influence of religion or decreased religion.

But the only thing for absolutely sure is that Russia won't be like this forever. The world has shrunk and changed. The garbage of how nations behaved across the 17th, 18th, 19th and early 20th and how Russia is behaving now doesn't fly anymore. The sad thing for Russians is that in all the upheaval they have had across the last century never once has a sensible system popped out the other side. Czar, civil war, Stalinist mess, WWII, post-Stalin communism, fall of communism, 90s mess and Putin.

This is hopefully the point in modern history that Russia learns enough to change.

 

[Grigb]

A bit of RU political RUMINT

Quote

Sergey Kiriyenko and Andrey Turchak are fighting hard political battles for the future political configuration of the "liberated territories". The main battle is unfolding for the candidates of the governors. Kiriyenko expects to send Pushilin and Pasechnik to the Federation Council [Duma upper house] after the annexation of the territories and put his own people in their place. Andrei Turchak, whose support was enlisted by the heads of the "people's republics" themselves, opposes this.

In addition to another series of underhand squabbles for influence, this plot has another intrigue. The fact is Kiriyenko has only one opportunity to promptly (without waiting for regional elections) send the Donbass chiefs to Moscow – unsealing of not yet used "presidential quota" in the upper house. Recall that Putin has the opportunity to appoint 30 people to the SF at his discretion, and seven of them are for life. Over the eight years of the quota's existence, many "great" people have been rumored to be included in it. Among them were Dmitry Medvedev, Valery Zorkin, leaders of three "old" opposition parliamentary parties, ex-SF speaker Egor Stroev and former head of Russian Railways Vladimir Yakunin. The budget even included money for the upkeep of these senators, but the quotas stayed empty.

If Kiriyenko unseals this personnel "pot", then we will receive evidence of two things. Firstly, a very strong increase of his influence on Putin. And secondly, the government's explicit unsealing of all its inviolable reserves.

 

[Peregrine]

35 minutes ago, kraze said:

I want russian empire to cease existing, ideally, baring that I want a big wall between us and Russia for at least the next century, until they repaid us all the reparations and made sure we rebuilt everything

The Russians won't be going anywhere unless there are insane escalations and NATO armies travelling east of Moscow. Even if Putin is ousted a nation of 145 million people just isn't going to stop existing in any sensible way. The Russians can't even finance or build there own country well yet alone a second.

[Grigb]

Sensing military defeat RU Nats are turning to a very fully familiar rhetoric

Quote

...Any of the large companies[/business] can afford to put 100 SUVs to the front at once or give winter uniforms to thousand of soldiers.

Yes. It's time to share. If you haven't figured it out yet, those who don't support the army will lose everything in the foreseeable future. We will ask only one question: how did you help the army in 2022?

 

[Kraft]

22 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

The Russians won't be going anywhere unless there are insane escalations and NATO armies travelling east of Moscow. Even if Putin is ousted a nation of 145 million people just isn't going to stop existing in any sensible way. The Russians can't even finance or build there own country well yet alone a second.

NATO tanks did not have to roll past Moscow to collapse the USSR.

Why is this so certain to not happen again? Many Rebuplics will feel the shackle lift and without strong internal suppression might declare themselfs in a snowball fashion.

What would a successor do? Ask the Ukrainians to send some of those Rosgvardia corpses back so they can police? Send conscripts against the own population? What do you think happens then.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Kraft

[Peregrine]

USSR ceased to exist, Russia did not. I do not think it likely Russia as some sort of country without some insane amount of violence will cease to exist in the near term. If you can picture a reasonable scenario where the current borders of Russia are significantly different than today feel free to share it.

In my post I probably should have more clearly described USSR and Russia as differing entities in their modern history.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Peregrine

[G.I. Joe]

Russia aiming to fly solo without Airbus and Boeing

The key takeaway here:

Quote

The target of building 1,000 airliners by 2030 is "basically impossible", according to aerospace analyst Richard Aboulafia, managing director of U.S.-based AeroDynamic Advisory.

"Even when they could get semiconductors and other vital components from the West, they were having a very hard time producing more than a handful of jets," he said.

By comparison with the new seven-year goal, Russia and the rest of the Soviet Union had only ever built a combined total of around 2,000 large commercial jetliners, he added.

Russia's aviation industry is effectively shutting down, this is going to have all kinds of ripple effects. Rostec's grandiose plans have a very "Luftwaffe '46" air of desperation and wishful thinking to them...

EDIT: And, slightly OT but I can't resist the juxtaposition. Meanwhile, in NATO:

How Air Force maintainers achieved a rare perfect inspection on a 49-year-old aircraft

Edited September 29, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

I missed this. Barge bridge being disassembled. Couple days ago.