How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Well you are stupid if you always assume that the most logical explanation must be true before you can assert it is true. 

Where are you going on vacation? 

Sorry, LethaFace, wasn't really trying to single you out.  Was just venting about all the posts.  

yes, maybe it wasn't Russia, but w/o evidence everyone is just making stuff up.  We KNOW that Putin has been sabotaging energy supplies for months, so for any other actor to have done this would require some sort of proof before I would bother looking there.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Mark Galeotti, with a sober take:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-nord-stream-blasts-are-putin-s-warning-shot-to-the-west

Galeotti also has an excellent podcast and several books on Russia, highly recommend.

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Ukraine also loves big guns, not only Russia

My guess is they captured ammo around Kharkiv....

 

45 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is being better than the Russians.  Masterclass in how to gain the upper hand and dominate the strategic narrative.

And just fighting so smart.

As I stated yesterday, Kraze is not the Ukrainian government. The Ukrainian Government is following the U.S. WW2 playbook perfectly regarding prisoners and so on. Not a few German POWS figured out it was nice here and finagled a way to stay. A lot of the ones who went back did so with borderline fond memories of their American vacation and played a not insignificant role in reconciling Germany to what had happened. And it is a hundred times more impressive given the immediacy of very real Ukrainian grievances.

There is a story floating around about a Russian cancer surgeon being mobilized as an infantryman. I will give odds he is working in a Ukrainian field hospital in a month, and then establishes a nice practice in Lviv. He would require some luck not get blown up before he ever sees a Ukrainian in person obviously.

Edited September 28, 2022 by dan/california

[kraze]

16 hours ago, billbindc said:

This approach was quite common amongst Americans before the end of WWII. I don't blame them and I won't blame you however much I abhor it. And I abhor it because it's exactly the kind of thinking that you are and should be fighting against. In the event, wiser heads prevailed and we took a softer course. As a result, our enemies then became, almost unthinkably, some of our best Allies. That's maybe something you should consider. 

Why can't Israel just live in peace with people next door and love thy neighbor? Those abhorring Israelis shouldn't be fighting against people wanting to murder all of them - they should be fighting against the intolerance to being murdered for centuries.

Seriously why is nobody using this argument against Israel having bad relations with their insane, genocidal neighbors?

Edited September 28, 2022 by kraze

[sburke]

U.S. Embassy in Russia asks its citizens to leave the country «immediately». (msn.com)

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, sburke said:

U.S. Embassy in Russia asks its citizens to leave the country «immediately». (msn.com)

Anyone still there on May 1st flunked an intelligence test rather badly. This should have been issued about then, too.

[BlackMoria]

Hmmm.  The backfield is in motion.   The meerkats are all standing up.

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

It was actually me. I did it. The pipeline annoyed me so I broke it.

.....

 

 

 
Good one.
Let's keep the humor in and all of us remember that there are language barriers, timezone difference and different perspectives in play here.

I for one must admit that most of my posts here are later in the evening / night, when I've caught up with the thread / other news and work/chores are finished. The subjects are often rather abstract (and thus interesting) and fast moving, so little time to 'negotiate for time' and put in a well rounded and translated response. In my case I notice that doesn't improve my English writing, at least not when I'm thinking in Dutch.

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, kraze said:

Why can't Israel just leave in peace with people next door and love thy neighbor? Those abhorring Israelis shouldn't be fighting against people wanting to murder all of them - they should be fighting against the intolerance to being murdered.

Seriously why is nobody using this argument against Israel having bad relations with their insane, genocidal neighbors?

you know maybe if you actually read a little more.....

For example, before going off on those horrible Arabs you might want to check the founding of the state of Israel.

Deir Yassin comes to mind

Deir Yassin - Wikipedia

or perhaps Sabra and Shatila

Sabra and Shatila massacre - Wikipedia

I'm with @The_Capton this.  Your intolerance and support for genocide has no place here.

Edited September 28, 2022 by sburke

[A Canadian Cat]

On 9/26/2022 at 3:08 PM, Battlefront.com said:

Nation building is a concept that works when the populace wants what you have to offer. 

Agreed

 

On 9/26/2022 at 3:08 PM, Battlefront.com said:

What this boils down to is crushing Russia now, keeping them crushed until they agree to own up to their crimes, then see if they are willing to play nice with everybody.  If so, cautiously ease up sanctions and monitor how things go.  If in 5-10 years they show signs of learning from their mistakes, invite them back into international organizations on a trial basis.  If they don't, keep them shut out.  And if at any time they start to show signs of being aggressive again, hit them hard right away.

I think that sounds like a good plan. I worry that even if this plan is adopted that it might not be executed very well. There will be a lot of wealthy people who will want to get back to business as usual ASAP. I would be concerned that our western governments might not be able to follow through like they should. Especially if the time line drags on past 15ish years before any progress is made 

 

On 9/26/2022 at 3:08 PM, Battlefront.com said:

This is a practical path forward that is neither the Marshall Plan nor the Morgenthau Plan.  It lets Russia sort things out for itself, but with careful minding by the West to ensure that they progress towards something better.

This is key. Russia and it's population has to want to change.

 

On 9/26/2022 at 3:08 PM, Battlefront.com said:

I've not heard anybody else come up with anything better.

Sound like a solid plan to me.

[Letter from Prague]

10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Anyone still there on May 1st flunked an intelligence test rather badly. This should have been issued about then, too.

Tourists who don't leave might be granted all inclusive tour (of duty).

________

Meanwhile, Russian media is showing off more insanity:

 

ETA: solid psychological warfare:

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Letter from Prague

[kraze]

16 hours ago, The_Capt said:

however to blame an entire people - who you don’t recognize as a people, yet point to them as an evil homogeneous empire that has been a threat for hundreds of years - down to many who have nothing to do with this or actively opposed it, nor had a say in it because Russia lacks a democratic system, is wrong on so many levels.

If a russian has a citizenship of Russia, pays taxes, which are used to arm his soldiers - he is directly responsible for everything his army and government does. Because they kill people with his money. So saying that said russian is somehow not responsible because he simply sits home and makes a choice to ignore warcrimes he himself pays for - is wrong.

Not to mention that while this current war (let alone all the others) that Russia wages has been going on for 8.5 years - there has been zero opposition to it amongst russians. In fact we will be having one million of them coming to brutally murder us, literally every 100th russian will be trying to kill us himself - but somehow that isn't an indication of collective responsibility.

Again I get it why you don't get it - not facing extermination by people of warmongering empire paints the world in different colors for you. Sadly it doesn't for me, it's pretty black and white now - because russians made their free choice to kill us.

[Lethaface]

7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Sorry, LethaFace, wasn't really trying to single you out.  Was just venting about all the posts.  

yes, maybe it wasn't Russia, but w/o evidence everyone is just making stuff up.  We KNOW that Putin has been sabotaging energy supplies for months, so for any other actor to have done this would require some sort of proof before I would bother looking there.

No offense taken 

I agree that the most likely pundit is Russia, even though I have a hard time really understanding how this will play out in their favor. But the same goes for the whole invasion, the mobilization and plenty of other stuff recently so that's not new.

With keeping an open mind I certainly didn't mean assuming all (conspiracy) theories posted on twitter/wherever are true. I don't even read most of those stuff, but I like to play with thoughts and think for myself. One of those thoughts was what if Shell/* did this, why would it be interesting for them. Far fetched? perhaps yes. But without entertaining thoughts you can't analyze them.

USA doing this without informing Germany/other countries is... rather borderline stupid and against US interests. 
In my opinion USA has been acting rather competent and thoughtful regarding this conflict. So while I agree that USA has historically often put USA interests first (which is logical), and at times against it's allies interested (nothing unique for most countries), there is very little substance to suspect USA behind this attack. 
USA said that NS2 wouldn't be operating if Russia invaded. And they got Germany to not operate it. So why blow it up if there was no indication Germany was sneakily activating the pipeline?
 

[Letter from Prague]

No escape now!

[Butschi]

23 minutes ago, kraze said:

Seriously why is nobody using this argument against Israel having bad relations with their insane, genocidal neighbors?

But we do. Seriously, even we Germans do that every now and then. Because hate begets hate and if you don't manage to break this vicious cycle you will continue that way forever.

Btw. that's the very core of Christianity (wish it would remember that every now and then). An eye for an eye was a revolutionary concept at that time because it was only an eye for an eye instead of outright killing the other guy. The new thing was that some point that is not enough (because you run out of eyes, maybe...). At some point you are better off forgiving the other guy even if you could rightly take his eye.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Butschi

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

On that note, we can see clearly, Russia’s will to win is not particularly high vs Ukraine considering the lack of mobilization till desperation and then a refusal to accept mobilization by the population. Despite the “threat to Russia’s existence” Ukraine poses supposedly to Russia.

There was never a credible threat to Russia's existence, at least in any honest critically thinking sane minds.

[kraze]

10 minutes ago, sburke said:

I'm with @The_Capton this.  Your intolerance and support for genocide has no place here.

Thus far, in 7 months, at the very least 100.000 Ukrainian civilians were murdered, half a million got deported god knows where to Russia: not a genocide.

Me writing on some niche forum that russians should be barred from visiting Ukraine until they pay back reparations, prosecute every criminal and completely change their mentality towards us: genocide.

OK.

[Letter from Prague]

3 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

There was never a credible threat to Russia's existence, at least in any honest critically thinking sane minds.

Even the Russians themselves agree - if they believed there is threat to Russia and that Russia is worth fighting for, they would be lining up for the mobilisation themselves right now. Like the Ukrainians did - you know, including grandmas making molotovs and people not living in Ukraine for years going back so they can fight.

Instead the Russians are running.

[riptides]

NS pipelines were sabotaged by Russia. They took a card out of the deck. Maintenance issues are the cover.

In reality it was a miscommunication at the latest coke party. Someone said "blow?", another said "a line?", then another said "two?".

The local naval commander then took action.

There were reports of US Naval anti-sub activity (sonar drops) in the area, like they were tracking or looking for  something. But, that's just RUMIT. I am sure by now if there was hard evidence, it would be out.

 

 

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, kraze said:

Thus far, in 7 months, at the very least 100.000 Ukrainian civilians were murdered, half a million got deported god knows where to Russia: not a genocide.

Me writing on some niche forum that russians should be barred from visiting Ukraine until they pay back reparations, prosecute every criminal and completely change their mentality towards us: genocide.

OK.

that is a complete whitewash of what you have advocated.

[kraze]

6 minutes ago, Butschi said:

But we do. Seriously, even we Germans do that every now and then. Because hate begets hate and if you don't manage to break this vicious cycle you will continue that way forever.

Except there was never a vicious circle. Before 2014 russians were treated absolutely like friends and everything was seemingly forgiven in 1991.

Just like it was in 1917 when Ukraine broke free from Russia - our ancestors immediately tried to make friends with "soviets" - and.... in 1932 alone russians murdered 5 million of our people.

Ukrainians were falling head over heels for that "brotherly" BS of theirs. Up until 2014 88% (no joke) of Ukrainians were against NATO even. Heck I ceased any contact with "more adequate" russians only in March of this year after realizing it is absolutely pointless.

So I have no idea what "hate begets hate" because hate for russians is a very recent thing, caused mostly by them proudly dismembering live Ukrainians for 8.5 years straight, because, as it turns out - at some point they decided we simply shouldn't exist. Again.

[Aragorn2002]

6 minutes ago, sburke said:

that is a complete whitewash of what you have advocated.

For God's sake. His country is under attack. His people are dying. Use the ignore function or shut up. All of you.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Lethaface]

29 minutes ago, sburke said:

you know maybe if you actually read a little more.....

For example, before going off on those horrible Arabs you might want to check the founding of the state of Israel.

Deir Yassin comes to mind

Deir Yassin - Wikipedia

or perhaps Sabra and Shatila

Sabra and Shatila massacre - Wikipedia

I'm with @The_Capton this.  Your intolerance and support for genocide has no place here.

FWIW I reported the post, there is plenty more to add to what you and TheCapt wrote but I don't think it's productive here. And that's coming from someone who probably posts more offtopic than ontopic; I like to play with thoughts. 
But somewhere there are lines and principles and recognizing a duck as a duck.

[BFCElvis]

39 minutes ago, kraze said:

Why can't Israel just live in peace with people next door and love thy neighbor? Those abhorring Israelis shouldn't be fighting against people wanting to murder all of them - they should be fighting against the intolerance to being murdered for centuries.

Seriously why is nobody using this argument against Israel having bad relations with their insane, genocidal neighbors?

You're crossing a line, kraze. Please step away from that line........right now.

[Letter from Prague]

It is sanctions o'clock 

 

 

[billbindc]

40 minutes ago, kraze said:

Why can't Israel just live in peace with people next door and love thy neighbor? Those abhorring Israelis shouldn't be fighting against people wanting to murder all of them - they should be fighting against the intolerance to being murdered for centuries.

Seriously why is nobody using this argument against Israel having bad relations with their insane, genocidal neighbors?

There are lots of counter arguments to the way you are framing the situation. But this seems like a weird place to have them.