How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

Just now, Letter from Prague said:

This video got shared so much in certain parts of the internet (like the NAFO base r/noncredibledefense) that some people started calling that track "NATO theme".

(it's Sublimation by Neo Fresco, to those who are into electronic music)

Ha, I just saw it for the firs time and am still full of awe 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Gosh golly, there's a war going on?  And this thread is supposed to be about that?  I'll be darned.  Thanks for this update, GrigB.  

So looks like that's the last road that can supply Lyman area?  And I've heard around 2000 troops estimated in the area?  Those 2000 seem to have actually fought hard, so it'll be nice to get them out of the war.  I think we can safely assume their replacements will be less capable and willing.

So does Ukraine stop and dig in for mud season, or can advance past a couple of the smaller rivers while the Russians try and fail to reorganize?

[JonS]

41 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Isn't Germany's armored and aviation fleet in shambles currently? Or have been for a while?

No, I do not believe they are a 'shambles.'

Underfunded, perhaps, but that's a matter of perspective.

Frankly, your response smacks of a position impervious to facts, and impossible to satisfy. You want "more" from the Germans, but were unaware that they were already well down that road, and so have shifted from "more" to "even more". Cool. Good for you. This - like most of the last few pages - isn't a fact based discussion anymore, but "emotions at 20 paces."

Good luck with that.

[danfrodo]

Just now, dan/california said:

So does Ukraine stop and dig in for mud season, or can advance past a couple of the smaller rivers while the Russians try and fail to reorganize?

I suspect they'll push for however long their resources, the weather, and the RU forces allow.  How tired are these units?  How is the logistics working across Oskil & from the south? How many of those roads are paved?  And just what is behind the current front lines?  New mobiks?  

Can't get collapse w/o some pressure.  But we just don't know what UKR resources actually look like.  Are they super stretched right now?  The lack of progress in Kherson says they actually can't do two major offensives at once.  But maybe they have another surprise awaiting us .   

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Artem Kolobov, probably a motor rifle battalion commander, unit unknown:

Maj. Vladimir Dolgikh, unit unknown:

 

 

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So looks like that's the last road that can supply Lyman area?  And I've heard around 2000 troops estimated in the area?  Those 2000 seem to have actually fought hard, so it'll be nice to get them out of the war.  I think we can safely assume their replacements will be less capable and willing.

Well, there is supposed to be corridor at Torkse that should allow them to go from Lyman to Terny>Makiivka>Svatove. UKR need to enter Tersky to close it and pocket is fully closed. On the other hand, I suspect UKR are already cutting this road somewhere else - it is a very obvious thing to do. 

Regarding the numbers of fighters, it is difficult to tell because they have suffered serious losses. AFAIR there are remnants of couple volunteers battalions + remnants of several Mobik battalions from 2 AK + remnants of 20th MR Division of 20th CAA. 

[Artkin]

29 minutes ago, JonS said:

No, I do not believe they are a 'shambles.'

Underfunded, perhaps, but that's a matter of perspective.

Frankly, your response smacks of a position impervious to facts, and impossible to satisfy. You want "more" from the Germans, but were unaware that they were already well down that road, and so have shifted from "more" to "even more". Cool. Good for you. This - like most of the last few pages - isn't a fact based discussion anymore, but "emotions at 20 paces."

Good luck with that.

Lol.

"Out of the German army’s 31 Tiger attack helicopters, only 10 were operational while only eight out of 33 NH-90 transport helicopters were ready for duty", "Meanwhile, the Luftwaffe could only deploy 42 of its 109 Eurofighter Typhoon multirole fighters and only 24 of the 56 remaining Transalls were available at any given time."

 

This was in 2015. I'm not sure what the difference between "Total number" and "Available" are. The vehicles absent are either sitting in storage awaiting repairs, or are vehicles undergoing upgrades, or are deployed for operations abroad, or something similar maybe?

If you look at the number of Tornado's it's telling.

Out of 89 total Tornado fighter bombers, only 66 were available and only 38 deployable.

Eurofighters - 109 total, 74 available, but only 42 deployable.

Even Marders, 400 vehicles with only 280 available/deployable. A couple brigades isn't a whole lot to fight with on the Eastern Front.

Only half their CH-53's are available, with only 16 deployable from the original total of 83.

 

I'm no German military expert, nor an expert in the first place, but if you haven't noticed the issues with the Bundeswehr... well apparently the Fliegerkorps.. you have been living under a rock.

4 deployable Sea Lynx ASW helicopters. Yeah good luck defending the Baltic Sea with that. 

Pulling Germany’s Armed Forces Back From the Brink | by War Is Boring | War Is Boring | Medium

Ramshackle Army at Odds with Berlin's Global Aspirations - DER SPIEGEL

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Artkin

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

When you support RU, but RU does not support you

 

The crazy thing about Russian pride in Russia and being Russia is that they obviously don't care about any of it.  Not really.  It's just an empty slogan for them to get testosterone flowing.  Because when it comes down to it, the biggest enemies of Russia's greatness are Russians.

Steve

[akd]

6 minutes ago, Grigb said:

20th MR Division of 20th CAA

I assume you mean 3rd MRD?

 

Russian tank charges Ukrainian position, has regrets:

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Well, there is supposed to be corridor at Torkse that should allow them to go from Lyman to Terny>Makiivka>Svatove. UKR need to enter Tersky to close it and pocket is fully closed. On the other hand, I suspect UKR are already cutting this road somewhere else - it is a very obvious thing to do. 

They'll have to abandon whatever equipment they had to reliably get out of Lyman.  But I don't think they had much with them to start with.

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Regarding the numbers of fighters, it is difficult to tell because they have suffered serious losses. AFAIR there are remnants of couple volunteers battalions + remnants of several Mobik battalions from 2 AK + remnants of 20th MR Division of 20th CAA. 

A few pages ago I guessed 1000-2000 in Lyman with probably an equal number to the left and right, so maybe 3000 at the start?  Enough to arrest Ukraine's initial advances, not much more than that.

This is just a gut feel for what's there.

I'd be surprised if Ukraine bags more than a couple hundred POWs out of this operation.  The more important thing, of course, is keeping the battle going eastward.

Steve

[Grigb]

Just now, akd said:

I assume you mean 3rd MRD?

Oh, yes! It is a bit late now. Need to go to bed.

[Artkin]

Better still on the dire state of the German military in 2015:

"16 CH53 transport helicopters are listed, but a previous air force internal report distributed to the Defense Ministry in August stated that only 7 were "fully" operational. With the Eurofighter fighter jet, Wednesday's official list for parliament stated that 42 aircraft were ready for deployment, but the August air force report stated that only eight were "fully" capable of operation. "

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/ramshackle-army-at-odds-with-berlin-s-global-aspirations-a-994607.html

 

8 of 109 eurofighters operational and ready to go is akin to the dire situation of Hitler's panzer armies in late 1941/ early 1942. Something like 10 panzer divisions on the whole Eastern front but not even enough panzers for a single division. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Artkin

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

Not that I know very much about it, that was during the bidding instead of after a contract had been signed and work supposedly started.

Anyway I have no doubt that France is not a bit more holy, but that's another issue ;-).

It’s an interesting story that in the end comes down to a similar situation: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-submarines-japan-defence-in/how-france-sank-japans-40-billion-australian-submarine-dream-idUSKCN0XQ1FC

[akd]

Rossiya!

Mobilization in Crimea.

Edited September 27, 2022 by akd

[keas66]

The comedy is getting very very dark .

 

Apparently Pedophiles and  Perverts are in large supply in Russia - as well as the previously mentioned cannibals  .... It's a pity its Fake subtitles !!

Edited September 27, 2022 by keas66

[Artkin]

6 minutes ago, akd said:

Rossiya!

Mobilization in Crimea.

Well at least someone knows how to avoid getting served papers. Where is Stalin now? 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Artkin

[billbindc]

Foreign Policy Mag is catching up to the forum faster and faster these days: https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/27/baltic-states-ukraine-war-russia-germany-military-aid/

[Huba]

Evening Rybar update is out. He confirms UA capture of Katerynivka, and breakthrough by armored car group to Torskie from the south, mentions the risk of cutting off the last remaining road. Sounds like the message is "no panic", while it is indeed time to panic. Let's see, tomorrow should be decisive.
 

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

They'll have to abandon whatever equipment they had to reliably get out of Lyman.  But I don't think they had much with them to start with.

A few pages ago I guessed 1000-2000 in Lyman with probably an equal number to the left and right, so maybe 3000 at the start?  Enough to arrest Ukraine's initial advances, not much more than that.

This is just a gut feel for what's there.

I'd be surprised if Ukraine bags more than a couple hundred POWs out of this operation.  The more important thing, of course, is keeping the battle going eastward.

Steve

I do not expect much but holding fingers crossed - RU put additional units at Lyman on 26-Sept. Just checked - they put there units from 144 mrd. So, we might get lucky 

 

[Huba]

nvm, it was too good to be true

Edited September 27, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

Evening Rybar update is out. He confirms UA capture of Katerynivka,

[Warning, not serious grumbling] This is what I do not understand - Katerynivka is a small satellite settlement of Nove. It holds no importance. It is Nove that is important but:

• Yesterday UKR captured Nove - nobody cared
• Today it is announced UKR captured Katerinivka - everybody starts talking about Katerinivka!

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

I know I'm bunch of pages late.

But I have a question: what would you call what happened with Germany and Japan after WW2. Those are both not perfect nations, but are far removed from their WW2 incarnations. Did cultural genocide happened there?

The way I read Kraze is he is not asking for cultural genocide. The point is not to make Russians stop speaking Russian, drink kvass, eat pelmeni, bathe in frozen rivers, write surprisingly good scifi books and be good at chess or whatever it is that defines them (and I'm sure this is much more diverse). The point is the imperial mindset.

And we do have examples in history that that can be somehow stripped away.(*)

Unless the imperial mindset really is what makes a Russian a Russian. Which I really hope it isn't, for all our sakes.

(*): although Japan has its issues (like anime) and as for Germany some of the kariwurst stuff is really getting out of hand

EDIT: nevermind, lol

Absolutely not re: Germany and Japan.  In fact the US and the western allies poured billions into the reconstruction of both these countries (West Germany obviously) in order to secure a strategic position within their regions.  American culture rubbed off but at no point was there a stated goal to unmake either German or Japanese culture.  In fact in Japan they left the Emperor alone.  

I can only go by what @kraze types here and his logic and position appear very clear.:

All Russians, down to children are responsible for this illegal war in Ukraine.  

All Russians are culturally wired to invade Ukraine, so even a defeated Russia or Ukraine within a collective defensive alliance will protect them.

The answer is to unmake Russia and remove it as an entity - to the point it would include compete fracturing of the country, regardless of risk, into smaller factions that would somehow not have the same Russian identity and cultural wiring to attack Ukraine.  Further, humanitarian crisis are also acceptable within these fractured states as it keep people there from being able to threaten Ukraine.

Ukraine would then become an Eastern European version of Israel (somehow) and be secure in a sea of people that hate them.

Pretty clear to me that a removal of the larger Russian identity is the aim here.  In fact by the logic presented one has to conduct a cultural cleansing or you just push the problem until these fractured nations, all with the poison root Russian culture still in their societies, re-unite to again attack Ukraine.

[Huba]

11 minutes ago, Grigb said:

[Warning, not serious grumbling] This is what I do not understand - Katerynivka is a small satellite settlement of Nove. It holds no importance. It is Nove that is important but:

• Yesterday UKR captured Nove - nobody cared
• Today it is announced UKR captured Katerinivka - everybody starts talking about Katerinivka!

For me RU mentioning it confirmed that Nove and all the towns west from it were indeed captured. With UA informational blackout and only RU sources available it is too risky to get excited after some positive developments are mentioned initially, you risk a serious disappointment  

[Grigb]

RU discovered cunning UKR tactic

Quote

I would like to mention one interesting [UKR] feature. Before the offensive, the Ukrainian conducts artillery preparation not only in the offensive area, but along the entire front at once, apparently so that the direction of the attack cannot be determined.

 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

So why exactly should we give them free ticket from responsibility? Their husbands and children came here to murder us in cold blood - and now we should give them warm welcome so that they or their descendants will get to kill us a lot easier when they get the chance since they got no consequences? You really don't see anything horribly wrong with your argument?

I am going to ignore most of your rant, frankly if anyone were to push that kind of hatred towards any other group they would get tossed off this forum pretty quickly; however, we live in odd times.  

The Russian military and political system are responsible for this war.  I have no doubt some of the population does as well; however to blame an entire people - who you don’t recognize as a people, yet point to them as an evil homogeneous empire that has been a threat for hundreds of years - down to many who have nothing to do with this or actively opposed it, nor had a say in it because Russia lacks a democratic system, is wrong on so many levels.

If in your fractured Russian scenario - the one you are promoting, and I notice no denial of you promoting cultural genocide either btw- Russian elderly, women and children show up on on your borders in a humanitarian crisis I expect you and your nation to be better than the a$$holes we are currently supporting your nation against.  If you cannot do that - and for the record I really do not believe you represent your nation - then why are we even bothering with this whole war?  If a post-war Ukraine is suppressing democracy in re-taken regions, actively supporting civil strife in former Russian fragments (which would have to be in your plan), and let potentially thousands of people die because of their ethnicity (oh wait Russian isn’t a thing, so, how will you tell who to keep out) - the what the hell are we defending here?

If we wanted a brutal regime in Ukraine to ignore human rights and suppress freedoms based on pseudo-ethnicity then why we didn’t we just sit back and let Russia take the damn place?

I stand with Ukraine in this war, but I do not stand with you on this.  We want a Ukraine with a fully functional democracy for all its citizens, a Ukraine that recognizes and operates under international law and respects human rights, regardless of who is suffering.  That is the Ukraine that gets into NATO/EU - with Hungarian arm twisting if need be.  That is the Ukraine we invest hundreds of billions in reconstruction. That is the Ukraine we support and enforce Russian accountability for.

Not whatever nightmare you are selling here.

Edited September 27, 2022 by The_Capt