How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

Map update

• As I suspected there was Southern UKR push (right bottom corner). Rybar claims road is under UKR fire and cannot be used by RU any more
• Also, UKR pushed their light mobile forces/recon to Yampil and Torske
• According to Rybar there is only one road left for Lyman defenders - Lyman-Terny-Makiivka-Svatove
• UKR continue to push South from Nove (center)
• UKR push North at Maliivka and Vyshne Solone most probably happens closer to the river - UKR claim they captured Pisky-Radkivsky. Given RU claims they control Borova most likely this is where the push is aimed
• No update regarding UKR push to Makiivka or Borova-Svatove highway

 

You should paint Novoselivka (near Drobysheve) in blue. Locals write in TG chat this village under UKR troops, they have been checking their IDs. 2-3 days ago comamnder of BARS-13 told this village controlled 50/50 by both sides.

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

 

 

[Grigb]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

A while ago I figured that Russia has written this area off after concluding that it couldn't defend it without weakening its forces to the south.  This was the major reason why Putin finally did mobilization... there simply wasn't anything left to throw into the fight. 

Yes, that's what I believe as well - the whole affair smelled of panic. And the only reason for that is if they had nothing to throw at UKR.   

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

What Russia seems to be doing is putting in whatever scratch forces it can find to slow down Ukraine's advances until the weather largely stops them altogether.  From there Russia can reinforce the line with Mobiks and hope for the best.

It's not a good or realistic strategy, but there is logic to it.  Therefore, I do not thing Russia is doing nothing about the situation, it's just that their options are so poor that this is the best they can do.

Steve

This is where I disagree. I do agree that RU is trying to do something and that options are bad. But I believe they are not as smart as we think. They do not want to stall UKR as much as they do not really grasp the situation. They are just throwing anything they could master hoping UKR is about to break. Their propaganda constantly talks about huge UKR losses. That's why I believe they are thinking they are defeating UKR pushes but just need to strike them one more time.

They are like a gambler who throws the last money in to machine because he thinks he is about to win. 

[Haiduk]

Some people write an opinion that NS incident is not because Russian interference. Because with strange coincidense after incident, Russia has postponed question of joining occupied territories from 30th Sep to 4th October

[Lethaface]

49 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

What his point is that the US advised STRONGLY against becoming reliant upon a resource coming from a primary adversary.  Over the years Germany's dependency grew and it's push back against dealing with Soviet and then Russian problems became more problematic.  So yeah, let's not forget what has happened before this war

I get his point (and yours), but perhaps I didn't phrase my point well enough.
USA was against the Nordstream pipelines and acted rather aggressively on the subject ('the advise'). But given that USA also is / has become a large exporter of (shale) gas, with actual investments in that capability at the time, this advise served at least multiple agendas. 
Germany / Europe was already rather reliant on USA in many ways (here some people called it 'lapdogs') and after Iraq, the spying scandals and other things, there were growing doubts whether USA 'advise' is in general mainly/exclusively in the interest of the USA and perhaps less so for others/'EU'. I think it's fair to look at the advise and decisions surrounding Nordstream pipelines in that context.

But building a pipeline isn't the same as becoming reliant on a single distributor, which is obviously stupid in almost any case. Germany should probably have built both the pipelines and some LNG terminals, or other capability, so it wouldn't have became reliant on either Russia or the US. They should have done that regardless of any advise from USA.

Also Germany tried stopping to see Russia as an adversary post '91, which did indeed turn out to be a mistake. 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Being strategically dependent upon the most reliable ally Germany has ever had was a worse alternative to being strategically dependent upon an expansionist dictatorship sitting in occupation of 1/3rd of its territory while at the same time aggressively threatening it with nuclear annihilation?

I'm confused by your logic!

Lol! 

Obviously at least in my mind my logic is that it's preferable not become too dependent other countries for vital resources. Not on the USA, but especially not on Russia!

Anyway at the risk of repeating the above; building the pipelines against the wishes of USA isn't something which brings culpability to Europe, at least in all fairness that's my thoughts/logic.

Germany should however feel stupid that after other gas resources became unavailable (Dutch gas), they allowed themselves to become defacto reliant on Russian gas; even before part of the pipelines became operational.

So stupid yes, culpable no. At least in my mind. 
And somehow we were discussing why Germany/Europe should 'foot the bill' for the war and why I thought neglecting USA advise wasn't a valid argument toward that direction. 

 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Stupid is one word that comes to mind.

Steve

No disagreements there.

For clarity, should Germany feel that due to this history they feel compelled to put in some extra effort in the support for Ukraine effort, I would 'understand' and applaud that. It is my understanding that the German population feels like that, however the politicians are another story. 

But for others to demand it from them is something else imo. 

I also don't know why Germany doesn't just make a catalogue of all assets available in storage in its industries and sends it to Ukraine to pick what they want / can maintain, with the bill footed by the EU. But at the same time I suspect there is some more going on than what's publicly available.

Finally most of the lists are only about $ for military support, but don't include economic support. Does anybody here actually know for sure how 'little' Germany supports? 

[JonS]

1 hour ago, DerKommissar said:

If the US installed a puppet regime in the chaos of '91, none of this would have happened.

The US has a /terrible/ track record with puppet regimes. It's one of the things they just cannot do. Maybe none of /this/ would have happened, but a whole different raft of bedlam would  have ensued.

Puppets, and cricket, are just a no as far as the US is concerned.

Edited September 27, 2022 by JonS

[Kinophile]

FYI, I personally didnt know about the Totskoye exercise. Fascinating event. 

[Kinophile]

38 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Hmmmm, two attacks on Denmark, well Danish waters, Article 5 anyone?

Russia isnt the only country with a Special Circumstances department...

[Butschi]

11 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Something to point out, the West/NATO must appear united, and we know pre-invasion, the U.S and Germany had reached a agreement on Nord Stream 2 being shut down in the event of invasion IF Germany and France were allowed to operate diplomatically to try and defuse the conflict. 

We have rumors that the main reason why no IFVs or MBTs is due to German reluctance, and therefore in order not pierce the alliance unity, all countries adopt the same stance. As already stated, its rumored that several European countries have indicated willingness to give the Leopard to Ukraine, but Germany is shooting down the export. 

We have rumors abounding from the German military industrial sector of a ability to fulfill contracts, but the government is slow walking or ignoring their offers. 

The way Scholz and the German Government has been acting, in completely contradicting circumstances, one week saying no armored cars, the next week saying yes after public pressure is too high to ignore, gives very little credibility to Germany's excuses. 

Something else to point, Germany exports military hardware to many countries with less than acceptable human rights policies, but for Ukraine, drags its feet like it is in quicksand. The fact that the Dingo, a MRAP caused so much anguish for Germany, even as Ukraine finds more and more war crimes and endures the loss of its personnel in offensives, is just unacceptable. 

Germany is also acting like smug ****s, when they haven't done anything worth talking about, nothing unique, and tried to assert they needed the Dingo to defend Poland and the Baltics, considering their stance on Ukraine, that must get Poland and the Baltics seething. 

Also, handing over Marders to Greece so it can give BMP-1s to Ukraine, is just insulting. Absolutely insulting. Does not matter if logistically hard for Ukraine, it looks really bad for Germany to hand over Marders that are better to a non-combatant so they can offload their junk to Ukraine. 

Germany has no problem selling military hardware generally. I will bring up the fact that the Inspector General (Secretary of the navy?) had to resign in January of this year due to saying that Putin needed respect, Russia and Germany should be cooperating against China, and that Crimea was gone from Ukraine. Very little for any of the states between Germany and Russia to feel pleased about, considering the carving of Poland and the Baltics in WW2 and prior. 

Does not seem like a lot of studying was done by the German government towards how the Baltics, Poland and Ukraine might feel about deals between Germany and Russia now eh? Not a lot of consideration for how they feel and the wounds inflicted on them by Germany historically hmm? 

On one hand, saying the Soviet Union's successor is Russia, and therefore is a former rival to Germany is right, but Ukraine was also part of the Soviet Union, and enjoyed German tanks rolling over the same hills and plains Ukraine is attempting to liberate from Russia, yet instead of a pledge to do right for Ukraine, we get this bull**** of a Marder being exchanged to Greece. 

On that note, so much money into Germany by Russia, a lot of politicians, including a former Chancellor owned by that money. It really comes down to the fact that Germany has a lot of incentive to not supply Ukraine, and a lot of factors that influence it to not do so, which would be less of a issue had Germany been revving to support Ukraine like Poland or the UK, or even the quieter U.S. but alas, none to be seen, so yes, Germany is gonna get slammed for being useless. 

 I mean look at these quotes from a NYT article on a interview he did two days ago: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/25/world/europe/olaf-scholz-germany-ukraine-war.html

How the **** can Ukraine not scream at Germany rightly when it Scholz says this? How can the Baltics, Poland, Finland or any other country in the target lens of a Russia intent on genocide and destruction be fine with that statement?!? I think we can all agree by now that the risk of NATO vs Russia is very low, (again, air defense batteries defending Moscow and the St. Petersburg region have been moved to Ukraine, and the Western Military District, supposed to fight NATO has been similarly drained of resources and personnel as well) and the fact that Ukraine unable to make offensive moves without NATO support is just doomed to have its people genocided on occupied land is just astoundingly insulting. 

"Russia can't win"?!?! Makes Macron look like a ****ing Ukrainian nationalist in comparison. 

Germany does not get to hide behind WW2 and act like it is killing Russia by sending tanks to Ukraine. Actually, Germany is letting Ukrainians die so they don't hurt Russian feelings. Just complete erasure of Ukraine and Ukrainians in enduring Nazi crimes and marching to Berlin and achieving Soviet victory over Nazi Germany. 

Why Russia has attempted for so long and hard to gloss over Soviet contributions by Ukraine over WW2 victory, is to diminish Ukraine in the eyes of Germany, so long wedded to atoning for their sins. Except the German public wants tanks sent! It is clearly not a unpopular move, which just leads us to the more cynical explanations. 

Sorry, that's enough for me. I am sorry, Germany doesn't act the way you want us to. I am the last one who wouldn't admit what we have done wrong in the past and where we still fail. But this really goes too far. Your first paragraph was interesting then you go on bashing Germany based on rumors you can't prove and the rest is just a rant which is frankly insulting to a high degree and things like "when they haven't done anything worth talking about" is just plainly, factually, wrong. You make it sound like we are allied with Russia or something.

I usually refrain from quoting the bible but "He that is without sin among you, let him first cast a stone at her."

 

[Grigb]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

You should paint Novoselivka (near Drobysheve) in blue. Locals write in TG chat this village under UKR troops, they have been checking their IDs. 2-3 days ago comamnder of BARS-13 told this village controlled 50/50 by both sides.

 

Yes, I will, thank you.  BARS commander actually told BS - if you check the street he was talking about (Podlisia) it was outskirts and not the middle of the settlement. So, RU almost lost it by 23-Sept but managed to hold outskirts for couple more days till about 25/26-Sept. And now it is confirmed.  

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Something to point out, the West/NATO must appear united, and we know pre-invasion, the U.S and Germany had reached a agreement on Nord Stream 2 being shut down in the event of invasion IF Germany and France were allowed to operate diplomatically to try and defuse the conflict. 

We have rumors that the main reason why no IFVs or MBTs is due to German reluctance, and therefore in order not pierce the alliance unity, all countries adopt the same stance. As already stated, its rumored that several European countries have indicated willingness to give the Leopard to Ukraine, but Germany is shooting down the export. 

We have rumors abounding from the German military industrial sector of a ability to fulfill contracts, but the government is slow walking or ignoring their offers. 

The way Scholz and the German Government has been acting, in completely contradicting circumstances, one week saying no armored cars, the next week saying yes after public pressure is too high to ignore, gives very little credibility to Germany's excuses. 

Something else to point, Germany exports military hardware to many countries with less than acceptable human rights policies, but for Ukraine, drags its feet like it is in quicksand. The fact that the Dingo, a MRAP caused so much anguish for Germany, even as Ukraine finds more and more war crimes and endures the loss of its personnel in offensives, is just unacceptable. 

Germany is also acting like smug ****s, when they haven't done anything worth talking about, nothing unique, and tried to assert they needed the Dingo to defend Poland and the Baltics, considering their stance on Ukraine, that must get Poland and the Baltics seething. 

Also, handing over Marders to Greece so it can give BMP-1s to Ukraine, is just insulting. Absolutely insulting. Does not matter if logistically hard for Ukraine, it looks really bad for Germany to hand over Marders that are better to a non-combatant so they can offload their junk to Ukraine. 

Germany has no problem selling military hardware generally. I will bring up the fact that the Inspector General (Secretary of the navy?) had to resign in January of this year due to saying that Putin needed respect, Russia and Germany should be cooperating against China, and that Crimea was gone from Ukraine. Very little for any of the states between Germany and Russia to feel pleased about, considering the carving of Poland and the Baltics in WW2 and prior. 

Does not seem like a lot of studying was done by the German government towards how the Baltics, Poland and Ukraine might feel about deals between Germany and Russia now eh? Not a lot of consideration for how they feel and the wounds inflicted on them by Germany historically hmm? 

On one hand, saying the Soviet Union's successor is Russia, and therefore is a former rival to Germany is right, but Ukraine was also part of the Soviet Union, and enjoyed German tanks rolling over the same hills and plains Ukraine is attempting to liberate from Russia, yet instead of a pledge to do right for Ukraine, we get this bull**** of a Marder being exchanged to Greece. 

On that note, so much money into Germany by Russia, a lot of politicians, including a former Chancellor owned by that money. It really comes down to the fact that Germany has a lot of incentive to not supply Ukraine, and a lot of factors that influence it to not do so, which would be less of a issue had Germany been revving to support Ukraine like Poland or the UK, or even the quieter U.S. but alas, none to be seen, so yes, Germany is gonna get slammed for being useless. 

 I mean look at these quotes from a NYT article on a interview he did two days ago: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/25/world/europe/olaf-scholz-germany-ukraine-war.html

How the **** can Ukraine not scream at Germany rightly when it Scholz says this? How can the Baltics, Poland, Finland or any other country in the target lens of a Russia intent on genocide and destruction be fine with that statement?!? I think we can all agree by now that the risk of NATO vs Russia is very low, (again, air defense batteries defending Moscow and the St. Petersburg region have been moved to Ukraine, and the Western Military District, supposed to fight NATO has been similarly drained of resources and personnel as well) and the fact that Ukraine unable to make offensive moves without NATO support is just doomed to have its people genocided on occupied land is just astoundingly insulting. 

"Russia can't win"?!?! Makes Macron look like a ****ing Ukrainian nationalist in comparison. 

Germany does not get to hide behind WW2 and act like it is killing Russia by sending tanks to Ukraine. Actually, Germany is letting Ukrainians die so they don't hurt Russian feelings. Just complete erasure of Ukraine and Ukrainians in enduring Nazi crimes and marching to Berlin and achieving Soviet victory over Nazi Germany. 

Why Russia has attempted for so long and hard to gloss over Soviet contributions by Ukraine over WW2 victory, is to diminish Ukraine in the eyes of Germany, so long wedded to atoning for their sins. Except the German public wants tanks sent! It is clearly not a unpopular move, which just leads us to the more cynical explanations. 

OK, I get that you're upset with German policy.  Many, including the person you responded to, are also upset with it.  But let's try and keep it civil and, in fact, maybe move on to something else.  Like what looks to be another spectacular collapse of Russian forces.

Steve

[Grigb]

39 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I'd say RU is behaving exactly like one would expect when a dictator is making military decisions.  He's desperately trying to hold on to everything, throwing in every warm body he can find.  Sound familiar?

Yes, it looks like this.

[Huba]

31 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Something to point out, the West/NATO must appear united, and we know pre-invasion, the U.S and Germany had reached a agreement on Nord Stream 2 being shut down in the event of invasion IF Germany and France were allowed to operate diplomatically to try and defuse the conflict. 

We have rumors that the main reason why no IFVs or MBTs is due to German reluctance, and therefore in order not pierce the alliance unity, all countries adopt the same stance. As already stated, its rumored that several European countries have indicated willingness to give the Leopard to Ukraine, but Germany is shooting down the export. 

We have rumors abounding from the German military industrial sector of a ability to fulfill contracts, but the government is slow walking or ignoring their offers. 

The way Scholz and the German Government has been acting, in completely contradicting circumstances, one week saying no armored cars, the next week saying yes after public pressure is too high to ignore, gives very little credibility to Germany's excuses. 

Something else to point, Germany exports military hardware to many countries with less than acceptable human rights policies, but for Ukraine, drags its feet like it is in quicksand. The fact that the Dingo, a MRAP caused so much anguish for Germany, even as Ukraine finds more and more war crimes and endures the loss of its personnel in offensives, is just unacceptable. 

Germany is also acting like smug ****s, when they haven't done anything worth talking about, nothing unique, and tried to assert they needed the Dingo to defend Poland and the Baltics, considering their stance on Ukraine, that must get Poland and the Baltics seething. 

Also, handing over Marders to Greece so it can give BMP-1s to Ukraine, is just insulting. Absolutely insulting. Does not matter if logistically hard for Ukraine, it looks really bad for Germany to hand over Marders that are better to a non-combatant so they can offload their junk to Ukraine. 

Germany has no problem selling military hardware generally. I will bring up the fact that the Inspector General (Secretary of the navy?) had to resign in January of this year due to saying that Putin needed respect, Russia and Germany should be cooperating against China, and that Crimea was gone from Ukraine. Very little for any of the states between Germany and Russia to feel pleased about, considering the carving of Poland and the Baltics in WW2 and prior. 

Does not seem like a lot of studying was done by the German government towards how the Baltics, Poland and Ukraine might feel about deals between Germany and Russia now eh? Not a lot of consideration for how they feel and the wounds inflicted on them by Germany historically hmm? 

On one hand, saying the Soviet Union's successor is Russia, and therefore is a former rival to Germany is right, but Ukraine was also part of the Soviet Union, and enjoyed German tanks rolling over the same hills and plains Ukraine is attempting to liberate from Russia, yet instead of a pledge to do right for Ukraine, we get this bull**** of a Marder being exchanged to Greece. 

On that note, so much money into Germany by Russia, a lot of politicians, including a former Chancellor owned by that money. It really comes down to the fact that Germany has a lot of incentive to not supply Ukraine, and a lot of factors that influence it to not do so, which would be less of a issue had Germany been revving to support Ukraine like Poland or the UK, or even the quieter U.S. but alas, none to be seen, so yes, Germany is gonna get slammed for being useless. 

 I mean look at these quotes from a NYT article on a interview he did two days ago: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/25/world/europe/olaf-scholz-germany-ukraine-war.html

How the **** can Ukraine not scream at Germany rightly when it Scholz says this? How can the Baltics, Poland, Finland or any other country in the target lens of a Russia intent on genocide and destruction be fine with that statement?!? I think we can all agree by now that the risk of NATO vs Russia is very low, (again, air defense batteries defending Moscow and the St. Petersburg region have been moved to Ukraine, and the Western Military District, supposed to fight NATO has been similarly drained of resources and personnel as well) and the fact that Ukraine unable to make offensive moves without NATO support is just doomed to have its people genocided on occupied land is just astoundingly insulting. 

"Russia can't win"?!?! Makes Macron look like a ****ing Ukrainian nationalist in comparison. 

Germany does not get to hide behind WW2 and act like it is killing Russia by sending tanks to Ukraine. Actually, Germany is letting Ukrainians die so they don't hurt Russian feelings. Just complete erasure of Ukraine and Ukrainians in enduring Nazi crimes and marching to Berlin and achieving Soviet victory over Nazi Germany. 

Why Russia has attempted for so long and hard to gloss over Soviet contributions by Ukraine over WW2 victory, is to diminish Ukraine in the eyes of Germany, so long wedded to atoning for their sins. Except the German public wants tanks sent! It is clearly not a unpopular move, which just leads us to the more cynical explanations. 

Out of likes, but very well said! 

An important data point, it seems one string of NS2 is still intact. 

 

 

[Cederic]

43 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Hmmmm, two attacks on Denmark, well Danish waters, Article 5 anyone?

Well, it's a Russian strategic asset, so if it wasn't them it's an act of war that would remove Article 5 protections from any NATO member involved.

Who really wins from this? China.

(Just throwing it out there. Sorry. Hey, at least I'm not getting into the debate about Snowden.)

[acrashb]

12 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Finally most of the lists are only about $ for military support, but don't include economic support. Does anybody here actually know for sure how 'little' Germany supports? 

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

1 minute ago, Cederic said:

Hey, at least I'm not getting into the debate about Snowden.)

Chicken

[FancyCat]

4 minutes ago, Cederic said:

This is a perfectly reasonable retort to the constant snide attacks on Germany for not providing Leopard tanks it doesn't have to spare.

Scroll down to Germany on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_foreign_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War and then look at

Germany's contribution is poor in comparison with the US, the UK and especially Poland (given GPD differences) but Butschi really does have a valid point.

Not really. The main reason for badgering Germany is the fact that the U.S would need to transport M1s likely from the U.S, logistical requirements for the M1 are much higher than the Leopard, only the U.S uses it so any maintenance facilities in Europe are wholly a U.S supported operation.

In contrast, Leopard 1 and 2, from wiki, current NATO operators are: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, Spain, Italy. So any maintenance in Europe needed after combat use in Ukraine, NATO can rely on a wide assortment of personnel and facilities for repair. Leopard has better range for less fuel, essential for a country with not wholly secure fuel facilities and logistics. 

For Germany to hide behind the fact that no other country is sending Ukraine a MBT when the Leopard 2 is basically the best tank for Ukraine to use, is a crap excuse and the only tank in plentiful stock. Does the U.S need to send a token unit of M1s so Germany's feelings are mollified? Can Ukraine return the M1s after Germany stops being scared? Ridiculous. 

[poesel]

3 hours ago, sross112 said:

Just out of curiosity, how will this effect energy prices? Seriously. I thought they were already shut down pretty much without hope of being turned back on anytime soon. To me it would seem that the market would have already adjusted to their loss of supply.

Markets also factor in future possibilities. The short spike in gas prices was the squashed hope that gas would flow through NS 1/2 sometime in the future.

3 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

So, Germany is indeed the only one who can provide MBTs (give their own or give export permission for sending to Ukraine).

It would be pretty laughable if UK or France would have to send a battalion of their domestic unicorn tanks to unlock the Leopard hordes.

Why not? Send a handful and that discussion is through. Ukraine wouldn't even have to use them.

2 hours ago, kraze said:

We won't be accepted into NATO because Germany and Hungary (and I'm sure many other countries) will block it 

As for Germany, I can say with some certainty that it won't block Ukraine's acceptance into NATO. Blocking that would be _very_ unpopular. TBH we won't be the first of course...

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Though, honestly, I've seen more support out of Germany for taking action than I expected it would.  Sadly, I had completely counted them out of this war before it started, based on their addiction to Ostpolitik.

This. Before February 22 it was simply unthinkable that we would send weapons. Discussions about weapons or the military would immediately propel you in the nut job or Nazi corner. An absolute non-starter on parties.
This war has changed Germany a _LOT_!
Still far from the 'normal' that other countries have with their relation to their own army or how to go about sending your troops (or weapons) somewhere. All this is still so alien to the general populace.

[Kinophile]

23 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

 

 

Interesting look. 

[Butschi]

56 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I just follow the facts to where they lead.  He said his motivation was to expose the illegal and immoral use of hacking and tapping, yet he said nothing about Russia did even though he had access to all of that information.  And then he had the balls to spout off about these topics while living in Russia!  No, sorry, what I've said about him isn't harsh enough.  He might have started off as a sanctimonious egotistical arse, but he wound up being a major asset for one of the worst violators of Human Rights on the planet.  As evidence by the genocidal war his new home country is fighting against Ukraine.

By running off to Russia he voluntarily agreed to be an asset even if it didn't start out that way.

Wrong.  He would have received a very fair trial.  The problem is his actions were so clearly criminal in nature and thoroughly documented that he would have gone to jail for sure.  "You do the crime, you do the time" is a very fair system.

Now, obviously he didn't want to be held accountable for his criminal and treasonous activity, so of course he sought refuge elsewhere.  And he gladly accepted sanctuary from a country that is the exact opposite of what he said was so important to him... freedom from surveillance and freedom of expression.  I find it both amusing and ironic that he would have had more freedom if he was in a US prison than in Russia.  In a way, I'm happier with him in Russia than in a US prison.  It's a worse punishment and I his life is not sustained by my tax money.

Russia extended the offer of sanctuary because he was one of their assets.  This is what Russia does to continue poking an adversary in the eye.

Steve

I'd like to discuss this further but it seems like a bad topic with lots of hard feelings. Today seems to be a day where all of us are a bit more cranky than usual. I admit not to be the least among those. Maybe we should all calm down a bit and not do the Russians' job for them?

[Der Zeitgeist]

Just a few points about the pipeline sabotage and Germany's behaviour re: supplying modern MBTs & IFVs:

It's pretty obvious that the SPD in the German government and especially chancellor Scholz have pretty serious reservations on the whole Leopard & Marder issue. The public line was not wanting to diminish the capabilities of the Bundeswehr even further and also a risk of unwanted escalation vs. Russia. Publicly, this escalation risk was often framed in terms of not wanting to risk World War 3 or provoking nuclear weapons use.

Personally, I also think that there's a hidden agenda in Germany's and also other NATO countries' policy in that they want to prevent Ukraine becoming so powerful that it would lead to a rapid military collapse of Russia with a risk of nuclear use once Ukrainian tanks start rolling into Crimea.

I think what we see today in the Baltic Sea is simply Russia demonstrating that they still have the capability of switching off large parts of the natural gas supply to Europe. NS 1&2 might have been meant as demonstration, one that doesn't have any immediate effects on energy markets (because the pipelines didn't supply gas at the moment) but that presents a clear show of Russian capabilities.

Logically, the next target on the list would then be the natural gas infrastructure in the North Sea from Norway to Western Europe, especially the crucial node at the Draupner-E distribution platform, which would cut off about 25% of current supply and completely tank European energy markets and industrial production.

Seen like that, I wouldn't expect Germany's position on MBT or IFV shipments to change massively, not after today's demonstration.

[poesel]

Also, one point about Germany that hasn't been mentioned yet: Scholz party (SPD) has its supporters more in older people. Many of them do still remember WWII or its immediate aftermath. It also has many people from the peace movement.
In about two weeks, there is a regional vote in Lower Saxony. SPD will lose some points, but is still posed to win this election. Scholz would be quite stupid to do any risky decisions before this vote is through. After that, with well filled gas tanks, maybe.

[Haiduk]

UKR troops drive through Koroviy Yar village. More interesting in this - BMD-1 still in service of 25th airborne brigade!

Pontoon crossing likely in Oskil village

And Yatskivka village on oppose side of Oskil

 

[akd]

Ukrainian Su-24 strike near front lines with high-drag dumb bombs (and a good reminder of how off CM is with dumb bomb employment):

 

[Grigb]

When you support RU, but RU does not support you

Quote

They take away another doctor without any military experience, an oncologist surgeon, who, through my channel, offered free operations for our SMO fighters in his private clinic. His wife writes:

"On Friday they brought him a summons and on Monday, as a good citizen, he went to the military enlistment office. Today he was mobilized to the 27th Motorized Rifle Division as a private.

A person who has not served [in the army] and who has 18 years of surgical practice experience. He could do a lot of good in the hospital or [working according] his profession. For a long time, we tried to convey to the military commissar that he is a doctor and does not refuse to mobilize. And that he is already over 35 and, according to the law, he cannot be called up as an ordinary soldier.

[We] wrote to the military prosecutor's office, but all to no avail."

 

[Lethaface]

18 minutes ago, acrashb said:

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

Thanks

If that's indeed 'complete' Germany is somewhere along the middle in the same category as my country (NL), Sweden and Denmark. Below Baltics, Poland, UK, US, but above France, Italy, Spain and Finland.