How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[womble]

11 minutes ago, poesel said:

Isn't there an IFV 'between' the M113 and the Marder? We first send that and then the Marder. Frog -> Boil...

 

Wot? Like this? I wonder if there are any left anywhere other than Peru's 20...

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, akd said:

Might be an error, but this says that 27-year-old Senior Lt. Igor Boychuk was commander of the Engineer-Sapper Battalion

Looks like the lack of officers now is usual thing. Our troops recently seized the list of LDPR mobiks battalion, and battalion commande rwas senior lieutenant. In Russian regulars the same - I've see already several times that company can command sen.lt and major can comamand battalion. 

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Indeed. We should send state of the art equipment, not outdated stuff. 

Or at least one that works reasonably well (like Marders). AMX-10P is notorious for it's crappy engine, and at 13 tons is really a step back compared to M113 - offering a bit more firepower, but for a lot less room and reliability. Really, we have to make this leap of faith regarding AFVs and start to supply UA with the modern stuff, I see no way around that. And it means Leo2 and Marders, hopefully followed by M1 and M2.

Edited September 23, 2022 by Huba

[Aragorn2002]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

Or at least one that works reasonably well (like Marders). AMX-10P is notorious for it's crappy engine, and at 13 tons is really a step back compared to M113 - offering a bit more firepower, but for a lot less room and reliability. Really, we have to make this leap of faith regarding AFVs and start to supply UA with the modern stuff, I see no way around that. And it means Leo2 and Marders, hopefully followed by M1 and M2.

Agreed. And F-16s as soon as possible, before the hords are arriving. It's a race against the clock again.

Edited September 23, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Artkin]

Now it is time to plan for next Spring. Theres absolutely no chance the Russians will have enough winter kit for their troops. And even by the Spring they should be pretty underequipped, notably without items as simple as combat boots. 

[Huba]

Just now, Aragorn2002 said:

Agreed.

One more thought on that. What Poland could do (not that it is being mentioned as an option now) would be to send in a battalion or two of Rosomak ( Patria AMV). We have around 800 of these in line right now, we could probably part with some. These are top of the line, western type IFV with Hitfist30P turrets sporting ATK30mm gun. After these, any modern IFV would be just a little step-up. We could actually do the same with Leo2, but this depends on DE allowing the re-export, so ultimately still Germany's decision.

[dan/california]

 

9 hours ago, Huba said:

I see that statement thrown around a lot, and by gawd I don't understand what it means. Knock down as in make it physically impossible for RU to wage war by occupying it's territory and killing enough russians? Yeah, for that you got to be a Mongolian horde, nobody else ever succeeded in that.
But knock them down, as in break RU society's will to fight to the point that they accept a peace on your terms and change their focus to internal squabbling? Well, 1905 calls to say hello. IMO RU is clearly following along very similar path as imperial russia then, we are just one Tshushima short.

And about the "if it's worth for UA to take casualties to retake Donbas/ Crimea". Not my decision to make of course, and a horrible one for anybody. But, as a rule of thumb, NATO is not accepting members who have open border disputes with their neighbours. Only sensible security arrangement for UA in the future means NATO membership. Therefore, when this war ends, UA has to be inside the borders that it can assume to be permanent. Hoping for any realignments in the future is absolutely futile from this perspective, it is a now or never situation.

 

 

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I concurrence with this, very much.  I absolute think Ukraine is entitled to regain its 1991 borders, that is recognized by the international community and my own government.

But should they?

I am not an expert on governments or politics with all the permutations and combinations that distribution of power can play out in a society.  I am an expert on defence and security, and in my business both Donbas and Crimea are starting to look like poison pills.

Now before everyone gets excited, hear me out.  We have gone round and round on the issue of what democracy would look like in this regions, let alone re-integration challenges back into Ukraine.  I am sure smarter and better educated people than me would figure it out, after what looks like a painful journey.  However from a security point of view:

- We have around 50% percent of the populations (pre-war) in these regions who are or have  been “pro-Russian”.  In Crimea that number appears to be closer to 68 percent. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimeahttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea

-  I think we can all agree that complete removal of Russian influence in these regions is the end goal; however, we should also be pragmatic in that will be very difficult.  It is highly likely that Russia will continue to do what it did before this war, subvert-meddle and support resistance groups.

- We have an unsolvable riddle on enfranchisements of these groups.  In fact some members here don’t even feel that people who fought in this war on the other side can be re-integrated back into Ukraine.  Others have outlined how a referendum is impossible due to 1) Russian gerrymandering thru war crimes, which is true and 2) these regions lack legitimacy based on previous actions.  Either way returning large proportions of regional population back into Ukraine with full democratic freedoms is not going to be easy.

With those three factors, and there are more - these regions are the setup for a security nightmare.  First, in Crimea there will likely be a humanitarian crisis when the UA re-takes the region as people flee across a single bridge - that can and will blow up all over the internet.  Second, as some point out, these regions will be as Germany was in 1945 - except now they all have cellphones - the odds of information resistance and warfare in these regions is almost a certainty.  Third, you have all the conditions for an insurgency backed by Russia in both these regions.

All risks during what is supposed to be a western backed reconstruction phase.  The risks to Ukraine losing the strategic narrative are extremely high, in fact a weakened Russia will go out of its way to make it happen.  Ukraine will risk taking on a decades-long nearly unsolvable ethnic based security riddle.

Maximalist is a very good word here, Steve.  These goals are just and Ukraine is entitled to them, no argument but the risks are very high that Ukraine will risk it’s strategic high ground when it needs it most if they pursue these ends.

In the end this will be a Ukrainian decision, it is their right and they have earned it.  My advice is that they think long and hard before they wade into this, it has broken more powerful nations.

 

 

 

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Your basic point about not being so hung up on where a line is drawn is something I'm in full agreement with.  This is exactly why Ukraine needs to think long and hard about pursuing goals purely based on pride and historical precedence instead of pragmatic thinking.  The cost of taking, rebuilding, and administering these areas needs to be part of Ukraine's thinking, not just "this is where the line was, that's all that matters".

However, the GOAL of returning all of its territory should not be disputed.  Russia redrew those lines through force and that should never be condoned.  If Ukraine wants to take back every square meter of its territory, they have every right to do so.  I fully support that right because anything other than that rewards nations using force.  Whether it is smart for Ukraine to seek back every meter of territory is a SEPARATE question to ask.

Steve

Ukraine need stable borders, peace, and prosperity. If Ru folds/collapses/disintegrates by all means take it all, and a few extra oblasts besides. But it is NOT worth grinding for it past 2/24 lines. Take that check The Capt. keeps talking about, tell the folks on their side of the line they have made their bed, plant those shiny new Nato and EU flags in front of parliament and set about outdoing South Korea in the postwar reconstruction.

4 hours ago, billbindc said:

 

Perusing the multiple reports out of Russia since the announcement of mobilization and the clearest conclusion one can come to is that these people are going to get absolutely slaughtered on the modern battlefield.

If I were the Governor of Sakhalin I i would trash the airport runway, mine the ports, call a snap referendum on seceding from Russia, and ask Japan for protection. I would quietly tell the Japanese that by protection I meant annex us please. It would be the masterstroke that ended the Russian empire. All the RU Nats would drop dead from a pulmonary embolism, Putin would be deposed as an incompetent laughing stock, and the Japanese would SHOWER the place with development funds until it sunk under the weight of the concrete.

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

But gents, this is where Air Power comes back into play, both conventional assets and drone swarms.  Everyone thought it would be the Chinese first to use this kind of thing. Wrong!

If the Iranians can export 'Saheed' buzz bombs that make a noticeable dent in UA defences, do you really believe the Western defence establishment can't source better weapons and crank them out by the thousand in 6 months (e.g. Turkey)?

(OK, maybe 6 months is pushing it)

...And then you have the conventional aircraft to follow up.

Every single RU AA position is under the Argus Eye, zeroed, in the crosshairs.  Their heavy guns, similarly.

You heard it here first:  air power has been MIA in this war, but just because the Russians couldn't pull it off, it doesn't mean it's gone for good.

The Western defense contractors really do need to roll out some statement tech for the AFU winter offensive. The kind of whiz bang that will have the Chinese write off retaking Taiwan for another 25 or thirty years.

1 hour ago, mosuri said:

Obviously porcs, how else to explain nazi swine?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7b9CStCYZJs&t=4s

OMG that is funny!

[Aragorn2002]

10 minutes ago, Huba said:

One more thought on that. What Poland could do (not that it is being mentioned as an option now) would be to send in a battalion or two of Rosomak ( Patria AMV). We have around 800 of these in line right now, we could probably part with some. These are top of the line, western type IFV with Hitfist30P turrets sporting ATK30mm gun. After these, any modern IFV would be just a little step-up. We could actually do the same with Leo2, but this depends on DE allowing the re-export, so ultimately still Germany's decision.

I wonder what the German tank industry is doing to speed up production and how long it will take to have effect. Perhaps Ukrainians are trained on Leo2s at this very moment, like they are on the PZH 2000. Sure hope so. The best Ukrainian hope lies in superior weapons and training. This war could last for years.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Zelensky has a LOT of clout.  If there is a logical reason to do X and it also eventually leads to Y, I think he can sell it to people.

No. His attempt to represent even not agreement, but just draft of agremment in Stambul in March caused VERY angry reaction in society. And this was just one month of war. Russian troops stood near Kyiv, there was no HIMARSes, HARMs and many other toys, all was too uncetain, but the will of nation was clear - no any "freezing of Crimea question for 15 years". Our victory condition - borders of 2014. 

Now all - Zelenskiy, Reznikov. Daniliov - they consider after Russian will get several heavy punches and UKR turned back on the Feb 24 borders, then Russian will be forced to negotiations to return Donbas and Crimea in diplomacy way. But if no, they all ready to do it by military force. 

Zaluzhnyi in one of interviews several months ago told AFU have objectives - to the end of the year to enter in Northern Cremea. Of course this plans assumed more fast western heavy weapon arriving in big number, but this is not happened in proper quantity. But here is just a fact, UKR will not hasitate to cross "red lines" or not.    

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No. His attempt to represent even not agreement, but just draft of agremment in Stambul in March caused VERY angry reaction in society. And this was just one month of war. Russian troops stood near Kyiv, there was no HIMARSes, HARMs and many other toys, all was too uncetain, but the will of nation was clear - no any "freezing of Crimea question for 15 years". Our victory condition - borders of 2014. 

Now all - Zelenskiy, Reznikov. Daniliov - they consider after Russian will get several heavy punches and UKR turned back on the Feb 24 borders, then Russian will be forced to negotiations to return Donbas and Crimea in diplomacy way. But if no, they all ready to do it by military force. 

Zaluzhnyi in one of interviews several months ago told AFU have objectives - to the end of the year to enter in Northern Cremea. Of course this plans assumed more fast western heavy weapon arriving in big number, but this is not happened in proper quantity. But here is just a fact, UKR will not hasitate to cross "red lines" or not.    

Ukraine's land, Ukraine's blood, Ukraine's choice. I am just some guy on the internet giving free advice.

Edited September 23, 2022 by dan/california

[Huba]

14 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I wonder what the German tank industry is doing to speed up production and how long it will take to have effect. Perhaps Ukrainians are trained on Leo2s at this very moment, like they are on the PZH 2000. Sure hope so. The best Ukrainian hope lies in superior weapons and training. This war could last for years.

Ditto regarding Leo2 training. Lithuanians were making some noise about it, PL is quiet but this is our modus operandi lately. First company worth of M1s arrived to a training ground near my city too, ostensibly to train Polish tankers. I really hope that the people being trained speak Ukrainian. No way to know (I was abstaining from illegally biking through the training grounds lately, a substantial sacrifice on my end ). 
From my layman's perspective, Germany is missing the biggest opportunity for it's armor industry because of Scholz's indecisiveness. If Germany stepped up, announced sending 2 battalions worth of Leo2 and called all  on other operators to do the same, promising filling the losses as soon as industry gets up to speed, they would easily secured the tank deal of the century, easily going up to 1000 new vehicles to deliver in upcoming years. I'm positive the Leo2 operators like Poland, Sweden etc would instantly followed through with the idea. It just needs one man's approval.

Edited September 23, 2022 by Huba

[danfrodo]

23 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Now it is time to plan for next Spring. Theres absolutely no chance the Russians will have enough winter kit for their troops. And even by the Spring they should be pretty underequipped, notably without items as simple as combat boots. 

Yes, good point.  It's tough to balance the longer term needs & possibilities (F16, M1 abrams, etc) that would take huge logisitical & training efforts vs fact that every gun, shell & IFV rec'd is needed pretty quickly at the front.  But if you never start building the basis for the NATO weapons you'll never get there.  And the technical, logistical, and command people needed to build that basis are kinda busy right now.

[danfrodo]

Just now, Huba said:

Ditto regarding Leo2 training. Lithuanians were making some noise about it, PL is quiet but this is our modus operandi lately. First company worth of M1s arrived to a training ground near my city too, ostensibly to train Polish tankers. I really hope that the people being trained speak Ukrainian. No way to know (I was abstaining from illegally biking through the training grounds lately, a substantial sacrifice on my end ). 
From my layman's perspective, Germany is missing the biggest opportunity for it's armor industry of the century because of Scholz's indecisiveness. If German stepped up, announced sending 2 battalions worth of Leo2 and called all other operators to do the same, promising filling the losses as soon as industry gets up to speed, they would easily secured the tank deal of the century, easily going up to 1000 new vehicles to deliver in upcoming years. I'm positive the Leo2 operators like Poland, Sweden etc would instantly followed through with the idea. It just need one man's approval.

I think you are missing the main point:  Ukraine/Poland receiving Leo2's would force Battlefront to put that in upcoming CMBS module.  That's the biggest and most important reason why germany needs to get on the ball.  

[Huba]

Just now, danfrodo said:

I think you are missing the main point:  Ukraine/Poland receiving Leo2's would force Battlefront to put that in upcoming CMBS module.  That's the biggest and most important reason why germany needs to get on the ball.  

Full disclosure follows. 
I bought CMBS sometimes around June, just to not feel like I'm parasite on this great community, but didn't manage to play it much since. I have some mundane BS like work and getting married on my head, which I solemnly regret  

[Aragorn2002]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

Ditto regarding Leo2 training. Lithuanians were making some noise about it, PL is quiet but this is our modus operandi lately. First company worth of M1s arrived to a training ground near my city too, ostensibly to train Polish tankers. I really hope that the people being trained speak Ukrainian. No way to know (I was abstaining from illegally biking through the training grounds lately, a substantial sacrifice on my end ). 
From my layman's perspective, Germany is missing the biggest opportunity for it's armor industry of the century because of Scholz's indecisiveness. If German stepped up, announced sending 2 battalions worth of Leo2 and called all other operators to do the same, promising filling the losses as soon as industry gets up to speed, they would easily secured the tank deal of the century, easily going up to 1000 new vehicles to deliver in upcoming years. I'm positive the Leo2 operators like Poland, Sweden etc would instantly followed through with the idea. It just need one man's approval.

He must have his reason, mainly economical I expect, but it annoys the hell out of me. What is he waiting for?

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I think you are missing the main point:  Ukraine/Poland receiving Leo2's would force Battlefront to put that in upcoming CMBS module.  That's the biggest and most important reason why germany needs to get on the ball.  

[Artkin]

10 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Yes, good point.  It's tough to balance the longer term needs & possibilities (F16, M1 abrams, etc) that would take huge logisitical & training efforts vs fact that every gun, shell & IFV rec'd is needed pretty quickly at the front.  But if you never start building the basis for the NATO weapons you'll never get there.  And the technical, logistical, and command people needed to build that basis are kinda busy right now.

Now would be the time to start supplying more advanced equipment. The front will surely quiet down. I dont think there will be any winter offensives from the russians. Guided artillery was bad before, but it could be catastrophic for troops in the snow if their forward depots get taken out. 

Edited September 23, 2022 by Artkin

[BlackMoria]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

Full disclosure follows. 
I bought CMBS sometimes around June, just to not feel like I'm parasite on this great community, but didn't manage to play it much since. I have some mundane BS like work and getting married on my head, which I solemnly regret  

Ahhhh,   I hope your solemn regret remark is the BS work and NOT the getting married part.  And if you also meant the latter, for god's sake, don't let your fiance ever read this board....

Edited September 23, 2022 by BlackMoria

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

Full disclosure follows. 
I bought CMBS sometimes around June, just to not feel like I'm parasite on this great community, but didn't manage to play it much since. I have some mundane BS like work and getting married on my head, which I solemnly regret  

CMBS is fine....but if you really want to see where it all started in the modern era, try out CMCW....now available in the gift shop.

[holoween]

21 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I wonder what the German tank industry is doing to speed up production and how long it will take to have effect. Perhaps Ukrainians are trained on Leo2s at this very moment, like they are on the PZH 2000. Sure hope so. The best Ukrainian hope lies in superior weapons and training. This war could last for years.

As a german tanker weve had a query in our company about russian speaking soldiers we had to help train Ukrainians. If, when and how the one guy we have is going to be used remains to be seen.

Edited September 23, 2022 by holoween

[Huba]

Just now, BlackMoria said:

Ahhhh,   I hope your solemn regret remark is the BS work and NOT the getting married part.  And if you also meant the latter, for god's sake, don't let your finance ever read this board....

To continue with the full disclosure policy, I should be done with the getting married part 15 hours from now, so it will be down to the work being BS  

[BlackMoria]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

To continue with the full disclosure policy, I should be done with the getting married part 15 hours from now, so it will be down to the work being BS  

Congrats!!

And if you post in the next few day, a scolding by me you will get.  Starting a life with a wife is primary importance.   Enjoy the time.  The war isn't going to dramatically change in the next fews day.  

Edited September 23, 2022 by BlackMoria

[The_Capt]

23 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Take that check The Capt. keeps talking about, tell the folks on their side of the line they have made their bed, plant those shiny new Nato and EU flags in front of parliament and set about outdoing South Korea in the postwar reconstruction.

Seriously - in 5-10 years:

Ukraine:

Donbas and Crimea under Russian administration:

 

[Huba]

Just now, The_Capt said:

Seriously - in 5-10 years:

Ukraine:

Donbas and Crimea under Russian administration:

 

The true reason for Putin starting all of these was always the perspective of russian plumbers starting to emigrate to Kyiv. You just couldn't have it as a self-respecting Tsar wannabe.

[Haiduk]

So, looks like we have new problem - Iranian drones. 

Probably they already arrived in enough number (according to Fligt Radar at least three Iranian cargo jets were delivering something to Russia) and crews completed own training.

If recently Russian used Shahed-136 episodically, that in last several days we can see "pair waves" attacks not only on vehicles on frontline, but on cities. Ochakiv port for three days was attacked by dozen drones. Some port infrastructure and port tug were damaged, some drones were shot down. Yesterday attack on Mykolaiv was repelled by Buk, which shot down 4 Shaheds with 2 missiles (looks like hit zone of missile is enough to destroy a pair)

Today Russians attacked Odesa port - administrative building was hit, 1 civilian was killed, gas station was also hit (strange choice for targeting). One drone of four was shot down

Odesa strikes (pay attantion on noise of Shahed)

 

Gas station hit with Shahed in Odesa

 

Shahed was shot down with a missile over Dnipro

Also UKR AD shod down over the sea Iranian UCAV Mohajer-6, wich belongs to the same class like Turkish Bayraktar and Russian Orion. The drone fell in the sea in good conditions and was towed by the boat to the coast. It's will be intersting which countries parts inside this drone

How it looks Mohajer-6

Edited September 23, 2022 by Haiduk