How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

 

55 minutes ago, asurob said:

So then Putin is closer to the window then we suspect?

I think he is quite close, Drunken idiots though they are, a fair bit of the Russian elite realizes that Putin is systematically trashing Moscows ability to control the Russian Empire. Since that control is what keeps said elite swimming in pools of money and unaccountable power, they are reaching the point where doing something looks safer than doing nothing.

Edited September 20, 2022 by dan/california

[Kraft]

There are still many steps to go before nuclear holocaust

Such as partial and full mobilisation. 

I am far more interested how that would look like on a military side, assuming it is 100% safe politically (even though it isnt).

If Russia was not giving L/DNR body armor and helmets, did they keep stockpile for themselfs? Will we see the very memeable return of the Mosin PU snipers? How would the cannon fodder be integrated, into the currently smashed formations or formed completely fresh, how long before those troops would enter Ukraine and make a difference?

I do think a reversal of the initiative would be the result, despite T-62s and soon memorial T-34s fighting. Another costly and pointless 100m for 100 bodies a day segment of the war until Russia has ground itself down again.

Or Putin is dead in a week many possibilities.

[Desertor]

Hopefully he is already dead and that’s why the speech has been delayed (forever)

[sburke]

26 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I do think a reversal of the initiative would be the result, despite T-62s and soon memorial T-34s fighting. Another costly and pointless 100m for 100 bodies a day segment of the war until Russia has ground itself down again.

I doubt that.  Russia can barely supply the units it has, the logistics are in a total clusterfk.  More bodies is just gonna make that worse with no real addition to combat power.  When these folks are shoved to the front (assuming they ever actually get that far) already bad morale is going to get worse, unit cohesion (what little exists) is going to collapse.  Mobilization is a red herring.  The Russians feel the need to DO SOMETHING, anything, to try and salvage this disaster. By the time they even get the new recruits into their enlistment bases Kherson will probably have fallen.

[dan/california]

27 minutes ago, Kraft said:

There are still many steps to go before nuclear holocaust

Such as partial and full mobilisation. 

I am far more interested how that would look like on a military side, assuming it is 100% safe politically (even though it isnt).

If Russia was not giving L/DNR body armor and helmets, did they keep stockpile for themselfs? Will we see the very memeable return of the Mosin PU snipers? How would the cannon fodder be integrated, into the currently smashed formations or formed completely fresh, how long before those troops would enter Ukraine and make a difference?

I do think a reversal of the initiative would be the result, despite T-62s and soon memorial T-34s fighting. Another costly and pointless 100m for 100 bodies a day segment of the war until Russia has ground itself down again.

Or Putin is dead in a week many possibilities.

Kamil has done a near exhaustive thread on the subject just recently. I will just highlight two points, it is MUCH harder to mobilize after you have gotten your standing army chewed into small bloody pieces, and what is left of it is committed to active operations. And secondly it was units of unhappy draftees who didn't want face German machine guns who actually carried out the Bolshevik Revolution.

[chuckdyke]

Russia got a water tanker at the ready to extinguish a burning fuel tanker. Advice that this is a bad idea will probably fall on deaf ears.

[sross112]

4 hours ago, sburke said:

well, it would explain not dealing with the ammo dumps as fireworks look pretty cool on acid, however my bet would be more that they are on meth.

Ahhhh yes, that's most likely it. Meth. That explains the stolen washing machines too. Freakin' thieving methheads.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, BletchleyGeek said:

Putin's last big speech - announcing the invasion of Ukraine - was timed to overlap with the address of the Russian ambassador to the UN security council. So they can be aware of time zones when it suits them.

I am wondering what will the speech be about, and if it is being - as I write this - tweaked to catch up with military and diplomatic developments.

Almost certainly immediate annexation of DNR/LNR and some sort of mobilization. But obviously lots of room for detail in there. I don't buy the idea that they were launching a trial balloon today. Something happened to throw them off. Maybe the US sent a message that gave them pause. The EU has already announced additional sanctions to follow any annexation.

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Almost certainly immediate annexation of DNR/LNR and some sort of mobilization. But obviously lots of room for detail in there. I don't buy the idea that they were launching a trial balloon today. Something happened to throw them off. Maybe the US sent a message that gave them pause. The EU has already announced additional sanctions to follow any annexation.

A picture of 200 ATACAMS at a warehouse in Poland? And the first 30 precision strike missiles to ever come off the line? A casual mention that they could be streaking across the Donbas sky in 48 hours? Or was it even stronger than that? 

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

A picture of 200 ATACAMS at a warehouse in Poland? And the first 30 precision strike missiles to ever come off the line? A casual mention that they could be streaking across the Donbas sky in 48 hours? Or was it even stronger than that? 

No idea. But something happened because that looked ridiculous today. And Simonyan clearly expected it to happen and she's briefed on what to expect.

[dan/california]

26 minutes ago, billbindc said:

No idea. But something happened because that looked ridiculous today. And Simonyan clearly expected it to happen and she's briefed on what to expect.

Since it the season for nonsensical annexation referenda, I think Poland should hold a vote on annexing Belarus. I think it is 80/20 they could win an honest vote since it would effectively put them in the EU. I am 100% sure they could win the farcical "on line voting" publicity exercise I have in mind. Who knows, with some well placed bribes the Belarusian army might decide to take orders from Warsaw, and that would be that.

Edited September 21, 2022 by dan/california

[FancyCat]

The Russian delegation to the UN is landing now in NYC, maybe just like the speech where he declared war and missiles began falling on Ukraine while the UN security council was meeting, they are timing it to ensure that once again they show their disdain for the UN.

[LongLeftFlank]

9 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Now, if we get down to the nitty gritty. Of course Ukraine shouldn't kill collaborators or Russians who surrender, they have a legal system to process them and their punishments which capital punishment is banned. If those collaborators or Russians find it better to move to Russia than face justice, so be it. If your asking what crime did these collaborators or Russians do, (carve out circumstances and etc, Ukraine should make room for that), assisting in treason, assisting in having your neighbors be killed or suppressed, it's obvious. If your asking why Russian is sideeyed as a language, deprioritized in Ukraine, consider the Russian state's suppression of Ukrainian language in occupied territories and recognize that prioritizing Ukrainian language is to protect and restore Ukrainian identity against erasure.

Recognize that many of the Russians moved into the Donbas or Crimea, did so through the suppression of Ukrainians, Crimean Tatars and their ousting, and the seizure of their property.

I would like Ukraine to not expel people, but the return of lost property and the allowing of return of those due to Russia's seizure must occur. Ukraine's sovereignty over Crimea must be enforced.

In spite of the strong passions roused here, a discussion of this war, and how to end it, is not complete without including the topic of how to handle Russian speakers in the liberated territories.  It's an elephant in the room, it's why 2014 happened in the first place.

I have Empire Loyalist ancestors in Canada, Americans who departed or were forced from the former Colonies following the Revolution. That was only a small subset, however, of the actual Loyalist population. Most simply pledged allegiance to the new Republic and went about their business. There was no wider 'cleansing' or purging.

Whether we like it or not, Crimea's 2.4 million people are 90% Russian speaking. Following a Ukrainian reoccupation of Crimea, the vast majority of those would choose to stay as Ukrainian citizens, regardless of when they arrived. Some will not, and will depart.

There are millions of Russian speakers throughout Ukraine, especially in Odesa. Many have lived there for centuries. Many are fighting and dying today, as Ukrainians, for the Blue and Gold.

...But there are hardliners in Ukraine who say, no! Russian residents of Ukraine are inherently disloyal fifth columnists, vipers in our bosom, and must be expelled en masse. 

And in any case, *somebody* must pay the price for Putin's war.  As if there was some economic value in vacant homes and farms.

And as far as I'm concerned, in spite of Russia's war crimes, the justifiable anger at Russians in general for supporting, actively or tacitly, Putin's war, and at their local collaborators, this is a legitimate area for discussion under this topic.

How can Ukraine win (or lose) the peace?

Ukraine will not get away today with what Croatia did in deporting all Serbs from the (wait for it!) Krajina region in 1994, in retaliation for Serbian ethnic cleansings and mass murders in Vukovar, etc. But that didn't make it any less cruel, or evil.

Russia is not Serbia. And this isn't 1994.

The consequences of Ukraine ethnic cleansing Russians will, in the eyes of much of the world, seem to confirm what Russia has been claiming since 2011 at least.  And it will end terribly for Ukraine.

Edited September 21, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Kinophile]

LLF, cmon man. Elvis has spoken and has very much not left the building.

Let it go.

[LongLeftFlank]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

LLF, cmon man. Elvis has spoken and has very much not left the building.

Let it go.

@BFCElvis

can speak for himself, thanks. I'll defer to our hosts of course, but this topic is a highly relevant part of this awful war, and proscribing any rational discussion of it seems silly, even if it doesn't interest you personally. This thread takes in a lot of angles.

[BletchleyGeek]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

No idea. But something happened because that looked ridiculous today. And Simonyan clearly expected it to happen and she's briefed on what to expect.

Exactly, hence why I was wondering about things happening today (like rumours of the US releasing "old" M1 models from storage).

26 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

The Russian delegation to the UN is landing now in NYC, maybe just like the speech where he declared war and missiles began falling on Ukraine while the UN security council was meeting, they are timing it to ensure that once again they show their disdain for the UN.

yet again in case nobody got the message back in February about how much they care.

[chuckdyke]

Till recently in Europe everybody talked at least with a regional accent or dialect at home. At the borders often a mixture, a language becomes a language after it is written down. Like the Netherlands and Belgium the written language is the same but at least in my case I had to listen very carefully in Antwerp or Bruges. It could be similar in the Ukraine and Russia. 

[LongLeftFlank]

16 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Till recently in Europe everybody talked at least with a regional accent or dialect at home....

Galeev speaks on this here.

 

(embedded)

Edited September 21, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[billbindc]

18 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

@BFCElvis

can speak for himself, thanks. I'll defer to our hosts of course, but this topic is a highly relevant part of this awful war, and proscribing any rational discussion of it seems silly, even if it doesn't interest you personally. This thread takes in a lot of angles.

I won't engage anymore in the conversation as it was a couple of pages ago but this is actually a difficult and interesting  question. Some points: 

1. Donetsk and Luhansk populations have already dropped and will spike downward in any sovereignty change. 

2. Minsk Agreements are a dead letter.

3. Ukrainian politics in every other oblast will have a powerfully anti-Russian unity for a long time to come.

4. Oligarch influence is diminished (look at Kholomoisky). 

5. Speaking Russian and a fierce Ukrainian identity is now a routine thing.

Should Ukraine take back those oblasts, you are going to see a significant voluntary return to Russia of the fiercest NovoRossiya elements and a very different Ukrainian political culture than those that remain knew before the war. You will also likely see a tidal wave of investment that was completely absent in the years Russia ran it. It won't necessarily be easy but there are lots of reasons to see why it could successfully be reintegrated into the state.  

 

[sross112]

34 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

In spite of the strong passions roused here, a discussion of this war, and how to end it, is not complete without including the topic of how to handle Russian speakers in the liberated territories.  It's an elephant in the room, it's why 2014 happened in the first place.

I have Empire Loyalist ancestors in Canada, Americans who departed or were forced from the former Colonies following the Revolution. That was only a small subset, however, of the actual Loyalist population. Most simply pledged allegiance to the new Republic and went about their business. There was no wider 'cleansing' or purging.

Whether we like it or not, Crimea's 2.4 million people are 90% Russian speaking. Following a Ukrainian reoccupation of Crimea, the vast majority of those would choose to stay as Ukrainian citizens, regardless of when they arrived. Some will not, and will depart.

There are millions of Russian speakers throughout Ukraine, especially in Odesa. Many have lived there for centuries. Many are fighting and dying today, as Ukrainians, for the Blue and Gold.

...But there are hardliners in Ukraine who say, no! Russian residents of Ukraine are inherently disloyal fifth columnists, vipers in our bosom, and must be expelled en masse. 

And in any case, *somebody* must pay the price for Putin's war.  As if there was some economic value in vacant homes and farms.

And as far as I'm concerned, in spite of Russia's war crimes, the justifiable anger at Russians in general for supporting, actively or tacitly, Putin's war, and at their local collaborators, this is a legitimate area for discussion under this topic.

How can Ukraine win (or lose) the peace?

Ukraine will not get away today with what Croatia did in deporting all Serbs from the (wait for it!) Krajina region in 1994, in retaliation for Serbian ethnic cleansings and mass murders in Vukovar, etc. But that didn't make it any less cruel, or evil.

Russia is not Serbia. And this isn't 1994.

The consequences of Ukraine ethnic cleansing Russians will, in the eyes of much of the world, seem to confirm what Russia has been claiming since 2011 at least.  And it will end terribly for Ukraine.

I agree that a blanket ethnic cleansing by expulsion would be wrong. Collaborators and those that want to be Russian instead of Ukrainian should have the choice to move to Russia or be deported to Russia, but they have a proven inability to conform to Ukrainian society and therefore should join their favored Russian society. I know that is a little harsh but Ukraine has suffered enough due to people like that and shouldn't have to play this game twice.

As for all the "Russian speaking" people that identify as Ukrainian and want to be part of the free society they should be allowed to stay if they were born there or apply for citizenship through normal channels if they aren't already. There are plenty of examples of Russian speaking people fighting for and supporting Ukraine. For the most part I believe, I may be wrong, that they are just Ukrainians that speak Russian. Kind of like an American that speaks Spanish, still an American.

It should boil down to their actions and their choices. I've always been a "content of character" type and believe people should be judged by that and not any other metric. There will be a lot of bleeding hearts that will bemoan the tragedy of those poor Russian migrants to the Crimea since 2014 being expelled, but it is actually probably the most humane thing to do. 

[FancyCat]

43 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

.But there are hardliners in Ukraine who say, no! Russian residents of Ukraine are inherently disloyal fifth columnists, vipers in our bosom, and must be expelled en masse. 

And in any case, *somebody* must pay the price for Putin's war.  As if there was some economic value in vacant homes and farms.

And as far as I'm concerned, in spite of Russia's war crimes, the justifiable anger at Russians in general for supporting, actively or tacitly, Putin's war, and at their local collaborators, this is a legitimate area for discussion under this topic.

How can Ukraine win (or lose) the peace?

Ukraine will not get away today with what Croatia did in deporting all Serbs from the (wait for it!) Krajina region in 1994, in retaliation for Serbian ethnic cleansings and mass murders in Vukovar, etc. But that didn't make it any less cruel, or evil.

Russia is not Serbia. And this isn't 1994.

The consequences of Ukraine ethnic cleansing Russians will, in the eyes of much of the world, seem to confirm what Russia has been claiming since 2011 at least.  And it will end terribly for Ukraine.

Where are these hardliners? Didn't the far right Ukrainian nationalists get a very small percentages in the last elections?

[chuckdyke]

24 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Galeev speaks on this here.

The same goes for English. It is the secret weapon of the west. The fact is it affects employment in much of the world and people embrace the principles of the Westminster system directly or indirectly. Always three authorities. Elected goverment, judiciary and the police. putin must get the shivers when he looks at it. 

Edited September 21, 2022 by chuckdyke

[LongLeftFlank]

3 minutes ago, sross112 said:

It should boil down to their actions and their choices.

Sure, although some (not me) might claim that is a naive Western bourgeois point of view.

...but let's say some Ukrainian official decides that a Russian-speaking family with Ukrainian passports has a nice dacha overlooking the ocean. And wouldn't it be nice to make that vacant, and auctioned by the state. Reparations, you know, and security risk.  You can't be too careful.

That's where things go, fast, when one applies a 'fifth columnist until proven loyal' kind of screening.

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sure, although some (not me) might claim that is a naive Western bourgeois point of view.

...but let's say some Ukrainian official decides that a Russian-speaking family with Ukrainian passports has a nice dacha overlooking the ocean. And wouldn't it be nice to make that vacant, and auctioned by the state. Reparations, you know, and security risk.  You can't be too careful.

That's where things go, fast, when one applies a 'fifth columnist until proven loyal' kind of screening.

We have yet to see the Ukrainians behaving that way so far and a Ukraine that wants to be in the EU and maybe NATO can't get away with much of that without blowing their chance. Grabbing the odd dacha or taking petty revenge is not worth it relative to that. The incentives have changed. 

[Battlefront.com]

I was offline for most of the heated discussion about what happens after Ukraine regains control of its territory.  I agree with LLF and Billbindc that this is a valid topic and of vital importance to postwar Ukraine's new identity as a free, Western leaning nation.  It would be good to see the discussion continue, but only if it can be done mostly dispassionately.  If that can be done, then great.  Otherwise I am going to ask that it stop.

From my perspective there are three things that must be acknowledged before any discussion about "what next" can be had:

1. A lot of people betrayed their country and contributed to the deaths of tens of thousands, the suffering of millions, the worry of billions.  The destruction of a hundred years of infrastructure, the environmental damage, and burdens upon resources for decades is also shared by these traitors.
2. Treason is not something that can, nor should be, easily put aside.  Those who participated in treason should pay the price for doing so.  Within acceptable parameters of Western style justice, sure, but no forgiveness for those caught.
3. The Russian language is NOT an indicator of loyalty to Ukraine as a nation state.  Treasonous behavior towards Ukraine as a nation state is not limited to Russian speaking Ukrainians, nor ia loyalty and bravery exclusive to Ukrainian speakers.  Therefore, the Russian language is *NOT* an indicator of loyalty of disloyalty.  Period, end of story.

Here is how I see it playing out:

Forced migrations are not within acceptable boundaries, but I also don't think pro-Russians should feel welcome in Ukraine.  Most already are smart enough to know that, so the bulk will likely relocate to Russia.  Good riddance.  Russian citizens who came in since 2014 need to be escorted to the border with whatever they can carry in their own two hands.  They are in Ukraine illegally and deserve no hearings before being deported.

Those that remain... figure out which ones committed crimes and punish them.  For the rest, attempt reconciliation as long as there is a mutual understanding that any signs they don't want to reconcile means being reduced options for continued life in Ukraine.  No public service, no voting, no tolerance for further transgressions against Ukraine's national identity.  A probationary period is more than fair, as are ramifications.

Steve