How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

They should've withdrawn from the whole right bank Kherson before UA put a significant pressure on it. Right now I don't see how that is possible. At best I think they will be able to evacuate the majority of men from the better unit, but without heavy equipment (well perhaps, they can gradually withdraw the most important pieces starting now, but not en masse). IMO compared to Kharkiv, even including the rapidly incoming withdrawal from the eastern Luhansk oblast, will be nothing compared to defeat in Kherson. I think expecting 10K RU losses there is not overly optimistic.

For sure.

If the Russian units had been of poorer quality and/or less prepared, I think we would have seen something more-or-less like Kharkiv.  Especially because they know they have nowhere to run away to (though some would try). 

My thinking about the operation is the same as it has been from the beginning in that there will come a time when the Russian forces are exhausted, physically and logistically.  Russia can't move in meaningful reinforcements or replacements because they have none and, likely, aren't willing to reinforce failure.  Which means the guys on the right bank have to fight until the Ukrainians decide to stop attacking them, which could be beyond the the Russian's breaking point.  Breaking point being either physical/mental exhaustion and/or lack of supplies necessary to keep fighting.

Once the breaking point hits the Russians have a choice between surrendering or fleeing.  Fleeing is very problematic, to say the least.  But that won't stop guys from trying.

I think the likely scenario is that the Russian front will collapse in chunks instead of all at once (as I had hoped).  The northeastern forces are the ones that are most at risk right now.  They're the ones that appear the most likely to break first.  However, they are also possibly some of the best troops the Russians still have, so they will likely hold out for a while yet.

To speed this up Ukraine really needs a breakthrough to the Dnepr somewhere.  If they can't do that sometime soon it might be winter before things really change.

Steve

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

This video is extremely interesting

• Wagnerite is clearly gopnik. Gopnik is not just poor youngster. It is poor youngster who decided to follow the career of criminal but who is not a full blown criminal yet (he might not become one at all). It is like proto-urka
• It shows that criminal-urka-prison culture is already spread among Wagnerites. 
• It also shows that there are cool professional Mercs outfits that are being shown to journalists, but there are also cannon fodder outfits consisting of trash like this gopnik.
• Conflict between Wagnerites and RU state forces is inevitable. Gopniks are universally despised by RU society because they love to show off aggressively. They are especially despised by any troops related to law enforcement like Rosguardia. Hence the conflict - drunk Wagnerite gopnik tried to show off aggressively, lost control of himself and hit RG troop and was immediately beaten by angry RG troops who nevertheless were afraid of him.
• Wagnerite gopnik had time to say that he would call his boys - well, well, well, wagnerites already believe they are above the law and can resolve any issues with law enforcing agencies just by threatening them.

Something is extremely rotten in RU already. 

The real tell will be the first film of Rosguardia LOSING a fight to a bunch of Wagnerites, then it is katy bar the door.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

Something that social scientists have warned about since this war started.  There's going to be tens of thousands of completely broken men floating around in Russian society.  Given the fact that Russia treats its service personnel like crap when they are in service, it's for certain that these guys aren't going to get good support after.  And given the economy, likely poor job prospects.

What happens when a nation has tens of thousands of mentally scared violent "men of action" floating around with nothing to do?  Nothing good, that's for sure.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Grigb said:

This video is extremely interesting

• Wagnerite is clearly gopnik. Gopnik is not just poor youngster. It is poor youngster who decided to follow the career of criminal but who is not a full blown criminal yet (he might not become one at all). It is like proto-urka
• It shows that criminal-urka-prison culture is already spread among Wagnerites. 
• It also shows that there are cool professional Mercs outfits that are being shown to journalists, but there are also cannon fodder outfits consisting of trash like this gopnik.
• Conflict between Wagnerites and RU state forces is inevitable. Gopniks are universally despised by RU society because they love to show off aggressively. They are especially despised by any troops related to law enforcement like Rosguardia. Hence the conflict - drunk Wagnerite gopnik tried to show off aggressively, lost control of himself and hit RG troop and was immediately beaten by angry RG troops who nevertheless were afraid of him.
• Wagnerite gopnik had time to say that he would call his boys - well, well, well, wagnerites already believe they are above the law and can resolve any issues with law enforcing agencies just by threatening them.

Something is extremely rotten in RU already. 

Huh.  I thought Russians supported Putin because he would never let the conditions of the 1990s happen again.  I must have heard it wrong, because it sure seems like the 1990s are coming back in vogue

We haven't touched on this in a while, so I'll do so now.  The social compact between the Russian people and Putin is fundamentally based on preventing a return to the lawlessness and privations of the 1990s.  Due to many factors, not least of which is the failed war in Ukraine, the underlying causes of the 1990s seem to be accelerating.  In some ways they are likely already here and people are just dismissing it as temporary inconvenience.  But it's not and it won't be temporary.

Steve

[Grigb]

30 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, the lack of reliable information out of Kherson is frustrating for sure.  I've seen too many reports of this or that happening only to see a few days later that it wasn't true or is at least contested.

However, it is clear that Russians are conducting a pretty competent defense.  The quality of these units seems to be decent and the months of preparation reasonably well done.

Steve

Terrain is a huge factor here. It is much more open terrain with few forests and few large enough settlements to hide significant forces there. It allows RU to use massed arty + aviation to stall any UKR pushes.  On top of that, claimed density is much higher.

Also, RU forces there are sort of elite. So, they do not crack easily under pressure. + it seems RU can transfer there some reinforcements to plug the holes. 

However, UKR indeed are grinding them, and RU troops are in much worse shape than we think. The question is how long they will last.  I read UKR estimate that offensive would take about two months. So, the beginning of October might be very interesting.  

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Maj. Tkharo Abataev, battalion commander, (probably) 5th Separate Tank Brigade:

Police Lt. Col. Denis Lazutin, commander Samara OMON operational company “Smerch”:

 

Edited September 16, 2022 by akd

[Cederic]

Something something morale etc

 

 

[Grigb]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Huh.  I thought Russians supported Putin because he would never let the conditions of the 1990s happen again.  I must have heard it wrong, because it sure seems like the 1990s are coming back in vogue

We haven't touched on this in a while, so I'll do so now.  The social compact between the Russian people and Putin is fundamentally based on preventing a return to the lawlessness and privations of the 1990s.  Due to many factors, not least of which is the failed war in Ukraine, the underlying causes of the 1990s seem to be accelerating.  In some ways they are likely already here and people are just dismissing it as temporary inconvenience.  But it's not and it won't be temporary.

Steve

Indeed, it reminded me of a scene from 90s - gopnik/bandit vs heavily armed police that actually is afraid of him because he has Krisha. 

[Haiduk]

5th assault regiment in action - rain of grenades from pickup-mounted Mk.19

This is new-formed unit. I suppose, initailly there were a lot of separate rifle battalions, established for attaching to existing brigades. In most cases there were not enough good equipped units, which according to grim joke "were formed to catch enemy artillery round in the trenches". Though several such battalions were transformed in assault units - battalions and regimnets. I knew before only 47th assault regiment led by well-known guy in Ukraine - Valeriy Markus, former paratrooper of 25th airborne brigade, ATO participant since 2014, author of bestseller "Trails on the road" and social media influencer - his 47th rifle battalion participated in Svitlodarsk powerplant defense, and after this battalion was reirganized in assault regiment with very strict selection by phisical conditions, motivation and willing to learn. So, now we have at least two assault regiments - 5th and 47th

 

[Grigb]

23 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The real tell will be the first film of Rosguardia LOSING a fight to a bunch of Wagnerites, then it is katy bar the door.

Oh, yes!

[womble]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

What happens when a nation has tens of thousands of mentally scared violent "men of action" floating around with nothing to do?  Nothing good, that's for sure.

Especially when a significant proportion of those "men of action" started out as either wannabe or actual felons. I mean, I know the armies of the West have a few wrong'uns sent there as a potential way of avoiding judicial action, but at least those guys get the benefit of an effective system of discipline before their term of service is up, rather than just being hazed and bullied and initiated in a dysfunctional structure of institutional corruption and brutality.

Though I guess that was also the case in the '90s after Afghanistan...

[The_MonkeyKing]

20min of westerners operating in Irpin. At the start of the war. (in english)

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

RU media report fighting whole divisions made up exclusively of Americans, British and Poles.

Originally he said "otryady" - "detachments, bands", not "divisions", but the message is clear  

Edited September 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

47 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

For sure.

If the Russian units had been of poorer quality and/or less prepared, I think we would have seen something more-or-less like Kharkiv.  Especially because they know they have nowhere to run away to (though some would try). 

My thinking about the operation is the same as it has been from the beginning in that there will come a time when the Russian forces are exhausted, physically and logistically.  Russia can't move in meaningful reinforcements or replacements because they have none and, likely, aren't willing to reinforce failure.  Which means the guys on the right bank have to fight until the Ukrainians decide to stop attacking them, which could be beyond the the Russian's breaking point.  Breaking point being either physical/mental exhaustion and/or lack of supplies necessary to keep fighting.

Once the breaking point hits the Russians have a choice between surrendering or fleeing.  Fleeing is very problematic, to say the least.  But that won't stop guys from trying.

I think the likely scenario is that the Russian front will collapse in chunks instead of all at once (as I had hoped).  The northeastern forces are the ones that are most at risk right now.  They're the ones that appear the most likely to break first.  However, they are also possibly some of the best troops the Russians still have, so they will likely hold out for a while yet.

To speed this up Ukraine really needs a breakthrough to the Dnepr somewhere.  If they can't do that sometime soon it might be winter before things really change.

Steve

The tell will be if the Russians can either reinforce the Kherson salient or if they are able to rotate units out. If neither is possible in any significant way then essentially Russia's best regular army units are stuck in a grinder and offensive capabilities are denuded while Ukraine can decide where else to strike. 

A huge collapse would be great but the current situation seems pretty good from the Ukraine perspective. Winning on maneuver in the east while fixing and destroying with attrition in the west.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

the newly raised regional battalion definitely add to a risk of civil war...

No. This is not oligarchs or governors private troops. As I wrote yestarday, Russia hasn't independent oligarchs. All this regional battalions are usual MoD units - just all questions with enlistment and supply transfered to responsibility of local enlistment offices and local authorities. Else you can say that regulat motor-rifle brigade from Buriatia is Buriatian private troops ) Real exclusion is Chechnia with Kadyrov troops, formally subordunated to Rosgvardiya, but really they serve to Kadyrov only. 

Prigozhin's PMC is really potential new Putins "oprichnics", like in times of Ivan Groznyi. Prigozhyn is just a cook. But he is right hand of Putin and empowered and funded by him 

Edited September 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[Grigb]

Seems we have confirmation that eastern part of Kupyansk is liberated.

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No. This is not oligarchs or governors private troops. As I wrote yestarday, Russia hasn't independent oligarchs. All this regional battalions are usual MoD units - just all questions with enlistment and supply transfered to responsibility of local enlistment offices and local authorities. Else you can say that regulat motor-rifle brigade from Buriatia is Buriatian private troops ) Real exclusion is Chechnia with Kadyrov troops, formally subordunated to Rosgvardiya, but really they serve to Kadyrov only. 

Prigozhin's PMC is really potential new Putins "oprichnics", like in times of Ivan Groznyi. Prigozhyn is just a cook. But he is right hand of Putin and empowered and funded by him 

All right, thanks for the comment! I don't feel competent to discuss that really, and hoped from some insight from the forum.
 

Here is a true gem of a thread IMO, about Uralvagonzavod switching to 4 shift work regime (it's in Polish, but twitter translate works very good). To summarize:

- one of the reason of factory stopping work was lack of available tank gun barrels. RU didn't have the stockpile apparently, and given that these have to be seasoned for up to a year, they couldn't just produce them.
- Putin probably arranged some from Xi, cause just after their meeting the factory started working frantically
- there are 260 T-72 waiting for modernization, and these are probably worked on right now. Chinese don't have appropriate barrels for T-90 though, so production can't be sped up here.
- there's also separate thread about issues with electronics, very detailed.

 

Edited September 16, 2022 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The tell will be if the Russians can either reinforce the Kherson salient or if they are able to rotate units out. If neither is possible in any significant way then essentially Russia's best regular army units are stuck in a grinder and offensive capabilities are denuded while Ukraine can decide where else to strike. 

I don't know how Russia can meaningfully reinforce Kherson.  Even if they had excess troops lying about looking for something to do, every soldier on the right side of the river is another soldier that has to be sustained.  The supply capacity over the river is already constrained and likely inadequate.  Not that I think the Russians would pay much attention to little details like that

The reality is that Russia doesn't have forces to spare and they just lost a huge chunk in Kharkiv.  Best we can tell hundreds dead, hundreds more captured, and many thousands completely disorganized and demoralized without the bulk of their heavy equipment. 1st Guards Tank Army is now effectively 1st Guards Rabble Army.  Reserves are going to have to go to Luhansk or they will lose even more ground there. 

Kherson is going to be on its own for practical reasons if nothing else.

26 minutes ago, billbindc said:

A huge collapse would be great but the current situation seems pretty good from the Ukraine perspective. Winning on maneuver in the east while fixing and destroying with attrition in the west.

Agreed.  Even just fixing them in place, without even attempting to destroy them, works in Ukraine's favor.  If Ukraine called off the offensive tomorrow it's not like Russia could afford to withdraw forces from there to go elsewhere. 

Steve

[Grigb]

And now for something completely different. As you remember some time ago RU captured Pisky once more time. Well, it seems they are going capture it again some time in future - there are still UKR troops around Bridge Republic. From that 56 brigade that RU destroyed several times.

[sburke]

Just now, Grigb said:

And now for something completely different. As you remember some time ago RU captured Pisky once more time. Well, it seems they are going capture it again some time in future - there are still UKR troops around Bridge Republic. From that 56 brigade that RU destroyed several times.

well hey if it was a great victory once,, why not a great victory several times!

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Hm... I don't know either to count them or not. From one hand they are former police officers, on other Justice Officers, non-military.

Those two were eliminated today in Luhansk Prosecution Office:

General of Justice Sergey Gorenko (though he was born in Ukraine and had Ukrainian citizenship, I give his name in Russian spelling), General Prosecutor of LPR. In 2014 he worked in UKR police and had a duty of chief of one of departments. Betrayed and defected to LPR. In 2019 became the chief of LPR Prosecutin Office. In February of 2022 personally on cameras shot with howitzer at UKR positions

Colonel of justice Yekaterina Steglenko, deputy of General Prosecutor of LPR. Before 2014 worked in Luhansk oblast Prosecution Office. In 2014 defected to LPR. In 2016-2017 served in MGB of LPR (analog of KGB). Since 2017 appointed on the duty of General Prosecutor deputy

 

 

Edited September 17, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

Seems like the Russians are failing to hold the Oskil river line in several places. Anybody have any idea what the next terrain feature they could anchor too is?

 

[Haiduk]

32 minutes ago, Grigb said:

And now for something completely different. As you remember some time ago RU captured Pisky once more time. Well, it seems they are going capture it again some time in future - there are still UKR troops around Bridge Republic. From that 56 brigade that RU destroyed several times.

You can read FB of Volodymyr Rehesha "Santa" - comamnder of volunteer unit "Santa" and defender of Pisky: https://www.facebook.com/rehesha.volodymyr

This unit in past belonged to Right Sector, but since 2015 it's independent unit, though many his fighters carry RS chevrons. He is outstanding legend of war - the man, the writer and hystorian, without any military training in 2014 gathered and established one of most effective and fearless volunteer unit in Ukraine. Pisky and "Bridge Republic" became their second home. In 2016 they also together with regular recons seized Avdiivka industrial zone (so-called Promka) and defended it tough. His unit fought in Pisky all theese 8 years and fights in present time. He never told UKR troops abandoned Bridge. According to him UKR forces also still hold several streets in Pisky

"Santa"

Edited September 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

FWIW:

 

[sburke]

33 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke

Hm... I don't know either to count them or not. From one hand they are former police officers, on other Justice Officers, non-military.

Those two were eliminated today in Luhansk Prosecution Office:

General of Justice Sergey Gorenko (though he was born in Ukraine and had Ukrainian citizenship, I give his name in Russian spelling), General Prosecutor of LPR. In 2014 he worked in UKR police and had a duty of chief of one of departments. Betrayed and defected to LPR. In 2019 became the chief of LPR Prosecutin Office. In February of 2022 personally on cameras shot with howitzer at UKR positions

Colonel of justice Yekaterina Steglenko, deputy of General Prosecutor of DPR. Before 2014 worked in Luhansk oblast Prosecution Office. In 2014 defected to LPR. In 2016-2017 served in MGB of LPR (analog of KGB). Since 2017 appointed on the duty of General Prosecutor deputy

 

 

I'll throw them under separatists.  I've been working on breaking down a bit more to the extent I can of what structural groupings are represented OMON,SOBR regular army, VDV etc