How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

GoPro footage from International Legion planting AT mines behind the lines at Balakliya.  Taken some time ago, not immediately preceding the attack.  It's a really good view of what the terrain is like in this area.

Steve

[BletchleyGeek]

6 hours ago, Huba said:

No way it is. It is inside UA artillery range along considerable part of it's length. And at least parts are single track. All Russian transports to Kherson in Melitopol are routed through Crimea.

Then all that chatter is just noise and the most likely axis if attack for Ukraine in the south is Orikhiv - Tokmak - Melitopol.

[Battlefront.com]

This is a first for me!  Watching BMP-2 shoot down a helicopter.  Fortunately it is a Russian helicopter

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/xdmgja/kharkiv_at_the_start_of_the_counteroffensive/

Some video of donated Spartans in action:

Oryx must have a love-hate relationship with videos like this:

Looks like it is a Russian "bone yard" for stuff they lost during the many months of positional warfare.  Could be that none of this was counted before, could be some were tallied based on combat videos of their destruction.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

Things like this only happen in comic books.

[Calamine Waffles]

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is a first for me!  Watching BMP-2 shoot down a helicopter.  Fortunately it is a Russian helicopter

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/xdmgja/kharkiv_at_the_start_of_the_counteroffensive/

Steve

 

9 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Things like this only happen in comic books.

Well, no, this was one of the intended reasons for switching to a high elevation 30 mm autocannon on the BMP-2.

[Aragorn2002]

17 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

 

Well, no, this was one of the intended reasons for switching to a high elevation 30 mm autocannon on the BMP-2.

Did he really got him? Hard to see. Could be just evasive action.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[chuckdyke]

47 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Well, no, this was one of the intended reasons for switching to a high elevation 30 mm autocannon on the BMP-2.

They should shoot canister rounds. It becomes something like duck shooting. Or be aided by a radar acquisition system. 

[JonS]

Canister has an effective range of, maybe, 2-300 metres. The 30mm cannon has an effective range of 2-4,000 metres.

You could, presumably, design a 30mm canister round with a prox or time or distance fuze, at an extravagant development time and cost, and production cost. Plus the weapon will need to be modified to allow for fuzing at a rate of 2-3 rounds per second.

With either a basic shotgun-style canister round or a whizzy fuzed round, you now have a specialist round for a specialist purpose. How many of the 450-odd rounds carried in the vehicle are this specialist round, where are they carried, and how does the crew access them quickly when required.

Canister has negligible armour penetration. 30mm will readily penetrate whatever a helicopter can still fly with.

A radar requires power.

A radar is fiddly, fragile, and readily prone to battle damage.

A radar requires additional internal wiring, plus display and controls inside the limited turret space.

Who operates the radar? Who now does their role? How much of their training year is allocated to training for this role? What other role(s) gets less training?

Radars are emitters, making the BMPs even easier to find.

 

All of that is solvable with aenough time, money, and manpower, but what is the opportunity cost? And that still leaves you with the question of which vehicles are conducting the IFV role while the BMPs are off pretending to be SPAA?

[chuckdyke]

All joking apart, a more serious post by someone who knows what he is talking about.

 

[Taranis]

Russian oil and gas revenues at their lowest in almost a year

Quote

 

According to a report based on data from the Russian Ministry of Finance and published by the Bloomberg news agency, Russian oil and gas revenues, which represent more than a third of the national budget, fell to 671.9 billion. rubles (11.1 billion euros) in August, their lowest level since June 2021. These receipts fell 13% month-on-month (July-August 2022) and 3.4% year-over-year (August 2021-August 2022).

Gas prices, currently at an all-time high, “could not fully offset the drop in revenue” linked to the drastic reduction in purchases of Russian petroleum products by Westerners, notes Bloomberg. "The refusal to buy Russian oil by some traditional European customers has forced Moscow to sell its oil at a greatly reduced price on Asian markets, which has deprived it of the full benefit of the price increase", adds the media. specializing in finance.

 

Behind the success of the kyiv troop counter-offensive, the ubiquitous American support

Quote

 

“We could not have taken back these territories without the help of the United States. The Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, recognized it himself, during a visit of the American Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, to kyiv, on September 9: the support of Washington was essential in the success of the counter-offensive launched by Ukrainian troops in the south and in the northeast of the country. Within days, kyiv's army recaptured 6,000 square kilometers of its territory around Kherson and Kharkiv, according to Ukraine's defense ministry, and its advance was continuing this morning.

Unsurprisingly, American support is primarily material. Since February 24, the United States has delivered more than 14.5 billion dollars (14.5 billion euros) of military equipment to Ukraine, of which 12.5 billion dollars were directly taken from US military stocks, says the Pentagon. For comparison, Ukraine's defense budget was around $5 billion a year before the Russian invasion. The United States alone provides 70% of Western military aid.

 

Ukrainian army claims to have shot down Iranian drone used by Russia, British intelligence services consider this hypothesis “very probable”

Quote

 

The Ukrainian army claimed last night to have encountered for the first time on the battlefield an Iranian drone used by Russian forces, with supporting images. The wreckage of the drone, in the shape of a triangle, corresponds to a Shahed-136 suicide drone. An inscription, the meaning of which is currently unknown, "M214 Gran-2", appears on it. The image suggests the Shahed drone was shot down by Ukrainian forces during their offensive around Karkiv, so it failed to explode on impact as intended.

This morning, the British MoD said in its daily intelligence update posted on Twitter that "Russia most likely deployed Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles [UAVs] to Ukraine". "It is almost certain that Russia will increasingly source weapons from other heavily sanctioned states, such as Iran and North Korea, as its own stockpiles dwindle," the British services continued.

The Shahed-136 is an Iranian suicide drone. It flies to a destination, presumably programmed before its flight, and explodes in the air above the target or on impact. Iran has provided few details about the weapon, but it appeared in military propaganda footage from January 2021.

Since then, there have been several uses of the Shahed ("witness", in Farsi), whether by rebels supported by Iran in Yemen or by an actor not officially identified during attacks on oil depots in Saudi Arabia or another tanker, the Mercer-Street, off the coast of Oman, in July 2021. These drones were also spotted flying over an American aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf, without however attacking it.

Their use in Ukraine is not a surprise. In July, US intelligence publicly warned that Tehran planned to send hundreds of bomb-carrying drones to Russia to aid in its war against Ukraine. If Iran initially denied, the leader of its paramilitary Revolutionary Guards has boasted in recent days of arming the world's biggest powers.

Sanctioned by the West – one for its nuclear ambitions, the other for its offensive in Ukraine – Iran and Russia have been seeking since the beginning of the year to consolidate their understanding, particularly in the energy and military fields. In July, Vladimir Putin met his Iranian and Turkish counterparts in Tehran.

 

Source : Le Monde

[Huba]

Georgia considering a referendum about declaring war on Russia. Just some posturing at this point, but if RU army collapses the opportunity to deal with separatists will be very tempting. Blood is definitely in the water and the smell becomes more and more intoxicating...

Exchange of fire between Kirgiz and Tajik border guards:

No news from Transnistria (except that Moldovan airlines renewed flights to Russia, perhaps to allow some people to leave peacefully?) but I bet Moldovans are getting ready too. Luka has to be (literally) scared for his life...

 

Edited September 14, 2022 by Huba

[Huba]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Rats, the film version was utterly epic even though it is fiction.....

Nikita Khrushchev, y've got balls like fooking Kremlin domes....

That was an absolutely epic movie that truly deserves a sequel. Russia is working on the scenario as we speak

[kraze]

27 minutes ago, Huba said:

Georgia considering a referendum about declaring war on Russia. Just some posturing at this point, but if RU army collapses the opportunity to deal with separatists will be very tempting. Blood is definitely in the water and the smell becomes more and more intoxicating...

Exchange of fire between Kirgiz and Tajik border guards:

No news from Transnistria (except that Moldovan airlines renewed flights to Russia, perhaps to allow some people to leave peacefully?) but I bet Moldovans are getting ready too. Luka has to be (literally) scared for his life...

 

Apparently it was an act of some private Moldovan airline. Government banned that flight renewal almost immediately. Or so the news go. Either way that's not on the table now.

[Grigb]

10 hours ago, akd said:

I doubt Ukraine expected to be exploiting their offensive all the way past Lyman and that, more than unexpected resistance, likely explains their inability to breakthrough in depth that far.

Actually, UKR plan consisted of two pincers toward Izum - North one and South one.

North consisted of two main pushes:

1. From Balaklya through Vesele
2. From Kupyanks + forces that reaches Oskil at Senkove/Borova (I made mistake - Borova should be yellow) along the Oskil. These forces also supposed to cut the road from Kupyanks to Izum on the other side of Oskil. Leaving RU Izum grouping with only one path out - Izum-Lyman-Kremenna corridor.

When North Pincer got RU attention UKR activated Souther pincer. They pushed:

1. From directly south toward Izum 
2. Near Dolyna and toward Svyatohirsk 
3. Near Stary Karavan and Ozerne toward Lyman to completely seal the road

From some reports I got the impression that UKR did not stop at Oskil but pushed further. It was clear that after closing Izum pocket they were planning to roll the RU flank at Oskil river striking North toward their Bridgehead at Senkove-Borova. Once Ru defenses collapsed at Oski RU would recoil toward Svatove.

UKR were very close achieving it - RU regulars abandoned Lyman and there were reports that they were running even from Svatove. However, LPR and volunteer units present as South did not panic and south front line buckled but did not collapse.  

But you do not need to belive me - look at the Rybar maps

As soon as UKR reached Oskil they started to push at Lyman as well.

[Calamine Waffles]

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

All joking apart, a more serious post by someone who knows what he is talking about.

 

Back in the early weeks of the "Battle of the Donbas", he was saying that Western heavy weapons aid was too little, too late. Make of that what you will.

7 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Actually, UKR plan consisted of two pincers toward Izum - North one and South one.

North consisted of two main pushes:

1. From Balaklya through Vesele
2. From Kupyanks + forces that reaches Oskil at Senkove/Borova (I made mistake - Borova should be yellow) along the Oskil. These forces also supposed to cut the road from Kupyanks to Izum on the other side of Oskil. Leaving RU Izum grouping with only one path out - Izum-Lyman-Kremenna corridor.

When North Pincer got RU attention UKR activated Souther pincer. They pushed:

1. From directly south toward Izum 
2. Near Dolyna and toward Svyatohirsk 
3. Near Stary Karavan and Ozerne toward Lyman to completely seal the road

From some reports I got the impression that UKR did not stop at Oskil but pushed further. It was clear that after closing Izum pocket they were planning to roll the RU flank at Oskil river striking North toward their Bridgehead at Senkove-Borova. Once Ru defenses collapsed at Oski RU would recoil toward Svatove.

UKR were very close achieving it - RU regulars abandoned Lyman and there were reports that they were running even from Svatove. However, LPR and volunteer units present as South did not panic and south front line buckled but did not collapse.  

But you do not need to belive me - look at the Rybar maps

As soon as UKR reached Oskil they started to push at Lyman as well.

People on Twitter used to scoff at me when all the way back in March/April I said some of the LNR and DNR units were among the most hardened and experienced among the Russian forces...

Edited September 14, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Beleg85]

Example of infiltration tactics used by Ukrainians:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-kharkiv-region-recapture-ukraine-insider/

[chuckdyke]

9 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Back in the early weeks of the "Battle of the Donbas", he was saying that Western heavy weapons aid was too little, too late. Make of that what you will.

It is always the case. 

[FancyCat]

Interesting, rebellion against ineptitude or wanting to go home?

 

 

[Calamine Waffles]

4 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

It is always the case. 

Judge for yourself what he said re: HIMARS/M270 MLRS

There's a reason why Tom Cooper (who is an Austrian) is pretty dismissive of Austrian intelligence services.


 

[chuckdyke]

24 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Judge for yourself what he said re: HIMARS/M270 MLRS

You never get enough from airplanes to armor or artillery. Speaks for a domestic audience. Even now Ukraine wants more munitions. This war is not over yet. At present it looks good for the Ukraine to keep it this way they need a steady supply of everyting what is on their wish list. Abrams, Leo 2 or Challenger 2 have your pick. 

Edited September 14, 2022 by chuckdyke

[Huba]

Zelenski in Izium. Waiting for Putin to visit Kherson. There's a Polish word "kozaczyć", literally "to cossack", which means to act with bravado, to be audacious  >>> this guy.

 

Edited September 14, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

RU Nat is a catchall for Russian who wake up, go about their business, and return to bed with nationalism foremost in their thoughts.  They are fanatics who have a highly distorted sense of entitlement and greatness that is all out of proportion to reality. 

Ever seen comments on YouTube about how the latest bit of metal stuck to a T-90 means the Abrams is obsolete?  That's an RU Nat.  Ever seen someone say that after Russia is finished with Ukraine it's on to Poland next?  That's a RU Nat.  How about those lovely people that think the West should be nuked because they dare to interfere with Russia's divine right to rule over whomever it pleases?  RU Nat.

While they come in various degrees of sanity, the common element is that they believe Russia is superior and (most importantly) deserves to be so.  Everything that challenges that belief is viewed as a lie, incorrect, or not relevant.  Critical thought is not a RU Nat's strong suit, that's for sure

Milder forms of this exist within Russian society, largely driven by long term conditioning by autocratic governance, propaganda, and normal Human shortcomings.  The milder ones might think NATO is a threat, but they also love visiting New York City or London.  The more mild they are, the more contradictions you'll find.  The more hardcore they are, the less.

Who are they in terms of power?  I touched on this a bunch of pages ago.  They are, like any movement, spread out all over Russian society.  Because of their loyalty to Putin and to Russia's greatness, they are likely represented within Russian state institutions to a greater degree than they are outside of it.  A RU Nat might repair your car in Moscow or be an officer in the FSB, but there's probably a higher percentage of fanatical RU Nats within the FSB than in car repair shops.  If true, then then hardcore RU Nats are over represented in positions of power and under represented within the populace as a whole.

As with any ideological group there are factions.  The "Guardians" are those who are loyal to Putin first, Russia second.  What I call the "Ultra Nationalists" are the ones who put Russia first, Putin second.  For a long time both factions felt they were getting what they wanted out of Putin, but for the Ultra Nats that's been on the decline for many years.  2014 planted a lot of seeds that did not sprout.  They were bitter about that going into this war and were elated when Putin acted.  Now they see him screwing everything up so that's likely putting strain on factions.

What I have seen happening for a long time is the Ultra Nats pushing to oust Putin.  If they are successful the Guardians will likely say "hey, we were with you the whole time" and, on the whole, unite like they were before.  Because neither faction wants to see Russia defeated, even if they don't agree on the details.  Both will support full mobilization and martial law as they will exempt themselves from the immediate consequences.  Hey, privileges of power!

Steve

This. Has nothing to add except confirming the following:

A RU Nat might repair your car in Moscow or be an officer in the FSB, but there's probably a higher percentage of fanatical RU Nats within the FSB than in car repair shops.  If true, then then hardcore RU Nats are over represented in positions of power and under represented within the populace as a whole.

It is true. Despite what you might saw on TV RU Nats were never able to match Liberals in number of people that could go out into the streets. Streets were and are Liberals territory.

[poesel]

8 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Ukraine is asking for more tanks, specifically from Germany. Predictably, the answer so far is "nein".

Scholz and his party get A LOT of flak from everyone (including the other two parties in the coalition) for it. I'm not sure how long he can keep that up. Especially since his dearest excuse ('no-one else delivers tanks/IFVs' 'we only do it together with NATO') has been defused quite nicely by the US ambassador who basically gave a carte blanche for weapons delivery on Twitter.

I guess his reasoning comes from the part of the population who are absolutely horrified of war in general and see a cease fire as the first and utmost thing that has to happen. I'm not sharing that idea, but it is what some people think.

[TheVulture]

In Russia-adjacent news, there was major fighting again between Azerbaijan and Armenia last night in Nagorno-Karabakh, leaving around 50 dead on each side according to their respective military announcements - first incident since some minor skirmished back in March at the start of the invasion of Ukraine (when Russia pulled some of its peacekeeping force out the area).

Both sides are blaming the other for starting the fighting. Russia has apparently quickly brokered a ceasefire between the two sides, which have promptly started each other for breaking the ceasefire with occasional shelling.

The timing, coming at a time when Russia is somewhat preoccupied, is interesting but not conclusive (since Russian peacekeepers are still there, and Azerbaijan, Iran and Russia just signed a trade-related agreement, so it might be an odd time to decide to strain Russian-Azeri relations again).

[Huba]

13 minutes ago, poesel said:

Scholz and his party get A LOT of flak from everyone (including the other two parties in the coalition) for it. I'm not sure how long he can keep that up. Especially since his dearest excuse ('no-one else delivers tanks/IFVs' 'we only do it together with NATO') has been defused quite nicely by the US ambassador who basically gave a carte blanche for weapons delivery on Twitter.

I guess his reasoning comes from the part of the population who are absolutely horrified of war in general and see a cease fire as the first and utmost thing that has to happen. I'm not sharing that idea, but it is what some people think.

I was giving that some thought lately.

As far as Marders are concerned UA would definitely love them. AFAIK these are the only IFVs in Europe that are available in relative numbers (There are AMX-10 in storage, but let's not make UA suffer that). Hopefully it would give Uncle Sam an incentive to dust off some Bradleys too. These vehicle could really make a difference there I think.

Tanks are a bit more tricky. I think that at this point the value of 100 Leo1 is negligible, these would be good in March/ April perhaps. Leo2 would be great, but these are rather scarce. I think there won't be any European tanks delivered to Ukraine (well the Leo1 maybe, but I doubt they would want them).
A crazy idea would be for Germany to donate say a battalion of Leo2 (they could manage that loss rather easily I think), and call all the other European operators to do the same. It would be a great PR stunt too, and DE could actually assume a leadership role this way. And defense industry would be immensely grateful I imagine.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Huba