How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

UA is pushing RU out of it's remaining positions north of Kharkiv (map and xonfirmation picture in the tweet):

Tons of captured RU equipment:

 

Edited September 11, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

New Copium - When enemy broke through the front line it becomes messy and friendly artillery and aviation cannot effectively hit enemy without risk of friendly fire. So, alignment of front line helps to solve this problem.

[paxromana]

Isn't the Kantemirov Division one of the Moscow units whose only task is to look good for parades ... and not have their vehicles break down?

Of course, they have weeks or months to prepare for parades ... 

But their 'fighting qualities' must always have been suspect given their normal intended purpose ...

I wonder, can they have their 'Guards' title revoked?

Edited September 11, 2022 by paxromana

[kraze]

It's supposed to consist of the best, most elite tankers they have.

And it does.

[Grigb]

We have new unofficial heir of the throne - Prigojin.

[Grigb]

RU soldier that fought in Izum reported:

1. RU started to take out units a week ago.So, by the time of reatreat there was low troop density in Izum.

2. No RU aviation only drones

3. No arty last 4 days

4. And yes, NATO mercenaries and specialist are everywhere.

 

[paxromana]

8 minutes ago, kraze said:

It's supposed to consist of the best, most elite tankers they have.

And it does.

For some extremely limited values of 'best' and even more so for 'elite' ...

A Girl Guide Troop could probably clear them up by pretending to sell them GG Biscuits ...

[Huba]

Two more settlements liberated in the north and visually confirmed. It looks like pushing to the RU border is the plan for today:

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/xbd43v/russian_drone_films_a_ukrainian_mig29_performing/

The first dump bombing with a multirole I have seen done by Ukraine in the frontlines. This in Kherson.

How dare they

[Huba]

Here's the newest Rybar map:

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/xbd43v/russian_drone_films_a_ukrainian_mig29_performing/

The first dump bombing with a multirole I have seen done by Ukraine in the frontlines. This in Kherson.

How dare they

That is great footage! Didn't see anything similar yet. I'll repeat again, that if US managed to plug HARMs to their aircraft, they should absolutely do the same with JDAMs, and let Russians feel what the PGM hype is really about.

Edited September 11, 2022 by Huba

[The_MonkeyKing]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

Here's the newest Rybar map:

here is a Russian propagandist version of the events from yesterday.

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I haven't heard much of the Panzerhaubitze 2000. Only a couple of dozens were delivered, so perhaps they haven't made much impact?

There were photos of them on the move in Kharkiv early in offensive, along with command post. So far only saw photos of PzHb 2000, Krabs and MLRS but undoubtedly there are some Himars there and maybe CAESAR's.

Fresh prey:

Now if seriously Russians will wrap their pocket north of Kharkiv, then probably any other terrains NW of Oskil as well will fall. We will see if they want to occupy foothold in Vovchansk. Actually logical move, they are unsustainable in long run for Russians.

Edited September 11, 2022 by Beleg85

[pavel.k]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

We have new unofficial heir of the throne - Prigojin.

I had an impression that Prigozhin belongs to the inner Putler's circle. Could he take throne just visually while Putler remains in power?

[Huba]

RU convoy HIMARSed (most probably) 20 kilometers east of Kupyansk:

 

[Huba]

And RU flags going down in Vovchansk. According to Rybar the town is already abandoned by RU troops

And here's a map stolen from RU Telegram ColonelAssad, reportedly from RU MoD official briefing. It shows that RU completely abandoned/ intends to abandon all positions west of Oskil, up to the border. 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

20 minutes ago, pavel.k said:

I had an impression that Prigozhin belongs to the inner Putler's circle. Could he take throne just visually while Putler remains in power?

Sure, umm, join the club.... 

 

 

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

So what happens if they happen to run into a Russian unit that happens to be armed with RPGs, perhaps some older Gaboy/Fagot ATGMs and mortars? Are they just going to back up and go around them, waste time and fuel?  What if they run into a strongpoint that they can't bypass due to geography or need to take for logistical reasons?

Where is the heavier firepower going to come from? Purely artillery? Back to WWI tactics? Infantry + artillery? It would cost you far more lives. Ask the Pasdaran in the Iran-Iraq War.
 

If you're going cross country, I don't think there is a significant difference in mechanical reliability between heavy wheeled AFVs and tanks. Both are going to consume a lot of fuel, and a wheeled vehicle has a lot more limitations in the terrain it can cross.
 

How do you achieve said breakthroughs using purely infantry and artillery?
 

How do you think would they achieve the shock and breakthrough effect using purely .50 cal armed AFVs with some BTRs as backup that gives rise to the exploitation opportunity? Especially when you don't have that much artillery (only 500+ pieces spread across several fronts)?

This is a false dichotomy. Why does one have to choose between one or the other? What about diminishing returns? And also, the unit costs of a T-64 and a BTR-4 are both about ~1-1.5 million USD.

With what heavily armed UGVs will they be using for this assault? What is the difference between a heavily armed UGV and a tank other than the fact that one has a crew and the other does not?

How does one support a UGV in the field? Are you going to offload the logistics of rearming and repairing them to the infantry? Will they have to return to base for logistical support? What happens if it throws a track? Or needs to be unditched? How do you ensure the security and stability of communications for a UGV across hundreds of km?

How will they break through the German lines with less tanks?
 

 

To be honest the simplest answer to most of these points has been staring us in the face this entire war - precision indirect fires.  I have seen no heavy assaults on RA strong points but we have seen a near endless stream of precision strikes on everything.

If a hybrid light infantry force meets a strong point - one that ISR somehow missed - the answer so far seems “call in Excalibur”.  If indirect is becoming so precise, why drag a bunch of heavy metal along?  Add to this indirect fire ranges are getting really long.  Steve makes a good counter-factual analogy, here is a pro-factual; what if the UA had 400 HIMARs systems?  Each light Bn had a battery on call…do I need to bring steel to strongpoint now?

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

Anyway, main points of the posts:

1. Loss of Kupynsk west part and UKR breakthrough to Oskil river was not critical for RU

2. RU thought UKR main objective Izum. They planned to hold Izum and front line by Oskil river and Lyman. Then counter-attack UKR grouping that was trying to assault Izum.

3. But UKR crossed Oskil in unnamed place [probably Senkove], blocked supply route there and made situation worse. Then disaster (for RU) happened.

4. UKR command realising RU plans shifted main effort to North and North East Directions (toward reservoir and Burluk). And UKR hit there hard.

5. This is were RU front collapsed not at Izum. 

6. Facing disaster at North RU command realized that throwing RU reserves in this area wil not dramatically change  difficult situation at Izum any more. So, they decided to play safe and ordered reatreat at Izum, and at long term seems to decide to redeploy from there completely.

Very interesting takes, thanks. I read Mashovets but perhaps we should wait for better translations.

So he reinforces previous suppositions:

1. North become important axis pretty quickly.

2. That Izyum was in fact quickly adandoned with probably significant eqipment  lossess but not cut off by Ukrainians. Thus we should not expect columns of thousands of prisoners a la WWII pockets. Squads and individuals taken here and there, maybe together they will hit 1-2 ths. (which is still significant).

3. Interesting info about Ukrainians crossing Oskil and interdicting supplies. Situation is fluid, and one of the most crucial question in this offensive is if they chose to form some stable bridgeheads over the river or go even further east. The temptation must be great.

 

[Aragorn2002]

7 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sure, umm, join the club.... 

 

 

Funny, he looks so trustworthy....

[Beleg85]

Btw. a good reading of how life was for civilians in Bucha.

https://cdn.occrp.org/projects/the-banality-of-brutality/

There was a game called This war of Mine about civilians struggling to survive in warzone... it strikes how realistic it was in retrospect; like CM but from different angle.

[poesel]

35 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There was a game called This war of Mine about civilians struggling to survive in warzone....

That is a good one. Very depressing to play. You can choose, how you want to survive and how much compassion you can spare on others. Sobering. 

[kevinkin]

Taken together, these articles point out that the World is preparing for a longer war than the impressive Ukrainian victories would suggest:

The title is not the key message. However, the nature of proxy war is.

 "Simply put, there’s little reason for Western leaders to encourage Moscow and Kyiv to negotiate an end to the war if they’re convinced that prolonging the conflict will help “bleed” Russia."

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/09/07/us-military-trained-ukrainians-days-before-they-sank-two-russian-ships/

"It is also an inescapable fact that Russia possesses a large nuclear arsenal, which is the main—if not the only—reason why Biden and other Western leaders are not going all out in their support for Ukraine. None of them believe that this fight is worth risking World War III.

Still, except for that one fact, Russia can no longer be taken seriously as a superpower—politically, economically, or militarily. Talk of expansive plans to protect “the Russian world” in far-flung territories is mere theater for a domestic audience that’s held captive under Putin’s propaganda machine and prone to believe his fantasies of a return to the greatness of empire"

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/09/russia-vladimir-putin-threat-so-not-scary.html

Hope that massive military embarrassments will produce political change in Russia is not a plan. Hope is not a plan. Maybe a negotiated cease fire like between South and North Korea would allow Ukraine to enjoy ( a restless) peace and prosperity. Maybe that is a plan to work towards. The timeframe to bleed Russia white militarily and economically is key. Ukraine has suffered too much already. So far so good with HIMARS and HARMs and Harpoons and ... the West needs to provide additional technology to turn the screws tighter on Russia so Ukraine can recapture all of its territory quickly. 

Edited September 11, 2022 by kevinkin

[Huba]

Some other RU Telegrams were also mentioning it yesterday and today. Interesting...

 

[Beleg85]

Ukrainians are already basically near the border:

19 minutes ago, poesel said:

That is a good one. Very depressing to play. You can choose, how you want to survive and how much compassion you can spare on others. Sobering. 

The studio actually did such a good job that now they use this game as educational resource in schools here, there are also rumours to do similarly in Czech, Estonia and several other countries.

Edited September 11, 2022 by Beleg85