How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

As we previously discussed UKR offensive aimed not at capturing land but degrading RU combat capabilities. Given another fresh RU sober assessment from Kherson it works.

The great operational thinker and proponent of maneuver warfare once called this:

"rope-a-dope" - Muhammad Ali 

Edited September 7, 2022 by kevinkin

[Grigb]

Fresh map

[UPDATE]

Another assessment

Quote

Now the intent of the enemy's plan is precisely outlined. The main blow is coming toward the Kupyansk direction. The task is to cut off the Izyum group from supplies, then surround it

Also in the Kharkiv direction, we can add the following:

The AFU has advanced - this is a fact. The main intent is clearly to make gap to Kupyansk - [there is] the main blow in the general direction of Shevchenko. There are fights in the area of Volokhov Yar.

Rocket attacks on Izum continue.

The DRG has become more active - on the third day, sabotage is being carried out in the area of the Bilyi Kolodiaz, Volchansk and Hnylytsi.

[UPDATE] RU source reports the situation is extremely fluid today. The frontline will jump back and forward. He is going offline so most probably the next update we will see tomorrow.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Grigb

[Grigb]

RU rumbles that it is Rosguardia that is trying to hold the line and they are bad at handling heavy weapons and calls for artillery.

[Grigb]

And now for something completely different.

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Putin's representative said about the development of the infertility virus by the West for Russians
 "The Anglo-Saxons" want to reduce the population of Russia by 100 million people with the help of the "infertility virus". Such a conspiracy theory was given out by the deputy presidential envoy to the Far East, Grigory Kuranov, speaking to schoolchildren and students at the Eastern Economic Forum.

According to the official, the goal of the West is to reduce the world's population to the "golden billion". Foreign scientists allegedly create a virus of infertility so that every third resident in Russia dies.

Anyone how claims that RU has legitimate grievances against West is very dumb and knows nothing about RU (of RU himself). RU is cult that indoctrinates citizens from childhood age (these are kids he is talking to) with hatred toward West using insane RU-invented reasons.

[kraze]

Do not let the infertility virus get you comrade, join the army and die first on the frontline. Do not let Obama take your sperm.

[Grigb]

RU comment regarding UKR reserves at Balaklya direction

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Those who write that the Ukrainians have few reserves in the Balakleya-Izyum area simply cannot imagine the realities of this direction. Relying on Kharkiv, the AFU can put up very significant forces, amateur bloggers have written about it more than once.

 

[Grigb]

Clarification - UKR are attacking in two directions from Volkhiv Yar toward Shevchenkove and Vesele. However, they meet stiff resistance not far from Volkhiv Yar and RU claims they stops UKR attack (maybe it was probing)

 

[Grigb]

For the reference: RU reporters started to talk about next UKR strike - at Zaporozhye direction

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3. The enemy is preparing another strike, I suspect that in the Zaporozhye direction. Given the accumulation of manpower and armor of the AFU, I am inclined [to think they] to try to break through our defenses to the west of Vuhledar. Then they will try to strike with a trident in three directions at once — to Volnovakha, Melitopol and [from there] from the east side to Energodar, the opening of the petals and access to the operational space [for exploitation].

 

[Grigb]

RU ground view on UKR offensive

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4. The enemy introduces brigades formed and trained in NATO. They took [back] the TrBats and introduced regulars into the breakthrough. In the assault groups, the SF groups [probably foreign volunteers units as well] are at the forefront, then the regular ones. SF storm, regulars are digging in/create defenses. They are trying to fight as it should be. [When] The assault troops withdraw, the regulars are digging in, look around, [then] pull up the TrBats. And again. And they move like that - in 3 floors [echelons]...

Of particular note is the increased activity of enemy aircraft, despite the fact that most of the Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were put out of action in the first months of its operation. Lend-lease has affected. Increased enemy air activity is noted in a number of sections of three directions: Kharkiv, Zaporozhye, Mykolaiv-Kherson.

The fighting near Kherson showed the need to change a lot in the management of troops from the company-battalion (tactical) level and above, in particular, with regard to the use of artillery. There are facts that the fire opens 1-1.5 hours after the request! The request goes to the commander of the unit, from him — to the Arty chief, from the Arty chief— to the commander of the battery. [Too] Long. This reduces the effectiveness of fire and leads to losses in units that repel the attacks of a superior enemy and wait for support.

As a result, the front holds on the heroism of the Russian soldier, as always. The front needs more aviation, artillery support and quick decision-making.

 

[akd]

@sburke

A Lt. Col. for the list, but can’t read the name tape:

 

[Grigb]

Extremely interesting map from Rybar

Left is UKR map and right is Rybar map. Just look at the territory that was very recently under RU control and already marked as UKR on Rybar map. 

[LongLeftFlank]

These new attacks threatening the RU supply lines to Izium are welcome, but to me the main chance to defeat a Russian army remains Kherson.

1.  Pro-RU social media is circulating grim jokes that the UA has successfully occupied all the morgues from Odesa to Dnipro.  That may contain some truth, sadly.  But I hope UA forces there haven't been shocked by their losses into easing up the pressure. I am keenly looking for signs that the broad push is continuing, and that the Ivans are running short of infantry (and materiel) to push back with....

At a certain point, they need to quit 'shaping' and land some heavy punches.  To repurpose this meme:

2.  Cool overhead video of 'Gorbach' gun runs:

 

 

Edited September 7, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[AlsatianFelix]

Right jab, right jab, right jab. Left hook.

Never box a Ukrainian.

[akd]

If this leaked document is real (prime candidate for fakery), it indicates that, as of two weeks ago, 48,759 personnel of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (not including L/DPR, Wagner, etc.) have been killed in the Special Military Operation.

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, Taranis said:

Ukrainian forces hit Russian Su-25 aircraft near Volokhovy Yar, Kharkiv Oblast

I'll bet that was a nasty surprise for the pilots. Even though they've been briefed the enemy is advancing, to get that far back from the previous frontline must be very unsettling.  And it's not like the RUAF is a brave and balsy force... So event's like this will help to chill RU Tac Air for a bit. 

[Calamine Waffles]

@Battlefront.com, it was indeed a missile strike, as we thought.
 

 

[Beleg85]

Today's developments are very interesting. Did not see info about Ukrainians hitting from the north yet, but it would be logical.

 

Edited September 7, 2022 by Beleg85

[Grigb]

News directly is Balaklya at 2 PM

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It's interesting here. So far, only aviation saves [us]. Still in a tactical encirclement.

 

[Grigb]

There are unofficial UKR confirmations that Bairak, Novo husarivka and Schyrovka are under UKR control

[UPDATE] RU confirmed UKR attack toward Savyntsi (to the east from Balaklya, bottom of the map).

Edited September 7, 2022 by Grigb

[The_Capt]

17 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Today's developments are very interesting.

 

I think this whole Kharkiv/Izyum thing is designed to pin down RA forces while main effort is Kherson based on the shaping operations efforts; however, it could be the other way round as well.

[Calamine Waffles]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I think this whole Kharkiv/Izyum thing is designed to pin down RA forces while main effort is Kherson based on the shaping operations efforts; however, it could be the other way round as well.

I think the idea is to exploit whatever opportunity occurs and to shift focus appropriately.

[LongLeftFlank]

9 minutes ago, Grigb said:

There are unofficial UKR confirmations that Bairak, Novo husarivka and Schyrovka are under UKR control

 

 

On to Shevchenkove!

 

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

I think the idea is to exploit whatever opportunity occurs and to shift focus appropriately.

That's about 400km to swing focus and resources.  The UA clearly has much higher operational agility, on shorter LOCs.  Still 400km in a warzone is a long way for land forces...space based ISR and HIMARS with ATACMS are a different story...nice.  We have been talking a lot about precision, we should do some thinking on reach, particularly of enablers.

[Grigb]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

1.  Pro-RU social media is circulating grim jokes that the UA has successfully occupied all the morgues from Odesa to Dnipro.  That may contain some truth, sadly.  But I hope UA forces there haven't been shocked by their losses into easing up the pressure. I am keenly looking for signs that the broad push is continuing, and that the Ivans are running short of infantry (and materiel) to push back with....

FYI they invented information about morgues and hospitals based on two UKR videos with less than dozen UKR emergency vans.

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

At a certain point, they need to quit 'shaping' and land some heavy punches. 

I do no think this is that kinda fight, more this: