How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Artkin]

2 BTG is only 20 MBTs and 80 or 90 something APC or IFVs, and that's not a whole lot to fight with. 

[dan/california]

 

6 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Looks to be around 17km NE from Balakalia to cut the E40 main N-S road to Izyum at Volokhiv Yar.  Still a long way to go.  Or 25km to Vesele directly east to cut E40 and junction w a secondary supply road.  Mostly open fields, but these are enormous distances in this war.  Not sure what this means.

But you don't have to get all the way there to make a big difference. Just getting into 777 range with conventional shells REALLY reduces the the supply through put. It is the same issue in Kherson What I check with every single settlement that falls is how far they are from hitting Nova Khahovka with 155. Because when that happens the Russian position will just fold.

[Grigb]

27 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Looks to be around 17km NE from Balakalia to cut the E40 main N-S road to Izyum at Volokhiv Yar.  Still a long way to go.  Or 25km to Vesele directly east to cut E40 and junction w a secondary supply road.  Mostly open fields, but these are enormous distances in this war.  Not sure what this means.

I would say it is not the main strike. RU like to attack to Husarivka to threaten one of the URK pincers aimed at Izum. By cutting road Balaklya-Volokhiv Yar UKR will be able to put a lot of hurt to RU defenders at Bairak and Nova Husarivka to push them back across the river. It will allow UKR to secure flank of their advance toward Izum. 

[Haiduk]

7 hours ago, Grigb said:

RU Confirmed - Berdyanks partisans bombed car that looks like had commandant of Berdansk

[UPDATE] looks like it was car of comandante but he was not present. Also reports of gun fire after explosion.

[UPDATE] looks like comandante indeed was in the car but survived (so far). In hospital now with heavy wounds. 

@sburke

This is Artyom Bardin, colonel, military commandand of Berdiansk. Presumably he is (or already was?) first deputy of Rosgvardiya directorate of Rostov oblast. According to other information - he served in 8th CAA HQ. Was on Donbas in 2014-2017.  

In present time is not clear he still alive or died. Collaborant "authorities" claimed he has died in hospital. Later Russians wrote he is alive but in very bad conditions - he lost both legs and many of blood. 

Badrin's car after explosion

 

Edited September 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

Just caught up with the past bunch of pages.  Lots of interesting stuff!

The Ukrainian attacks around Izyum are exactly the sort of thing I (and lots of others) expected in support of Kherson.  They are designed to divide Russia's reserves and, hopefully, affect some meaningful tactical/operational improvement of existing positions.  There is no doubt in my mind that these are distraction operations, not the real effort as some of the RU Nat bloggers claim it is.  One look at where Ukraine put it's previously untouched reserves and the question should be put to rest.

The brilliance of Ukraine's strategy is that Russia can NOT afford to blow off these sideshows because they are being carefully selected for maximum gain.

Months ago we talked about how Ukraine was even then, and certainly now, able to achieve superior force ratios in limited tactical areas.  This is because Russian forces are so thinly spread out and Ukraine has sufficient forces to build up small areas without risk to others.

The infiltration attack on Balaklya is exactly what I've been waiting to see Ukraine do.  I think we're going to see a lot more of these types of attacks in the future.  There's simply no reason to think that Russia can successfully counter them on the whole, even if specific cases don't work out as well for Ukraine.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Combatintman said:

Not many to choose from is one of the big factors and many of those are in the middle of town and have a fair amount of security in and around them.  The Russian Embassy by comparison is accessible as it is outside the city centre.  The attack was clearly planned and IS-K had almost certainly gone there on days that the consular section was open to see what went on there.  That recce identified that there was a crowd to hide in and that Russian officials would come outside the embassy security perimeter to call people forward to get their visas which was the scenario in which the attack was made yesterday.  In security risk management terms a straight out case of an exploitable vulnerability.

The Pakistani Embassy, which used to be the British Embassy until 1994, is also pretty accessible for the same reason and that embassy also has lots of people outside it gathering for visas.  Of the two, and if I was in IS-K's shoes, I'd go for Russia because IS-K still relies on facilitation and recruitment via Pakistan.  This shouldn't be taken to mean that Pakistan is providing this - it is just where some recruitment happens and Pakistan's geography puts it adjacent to IS-K's stronghold in Kunar Province from which onward facilitation routes run.  It is of course no friend of the Pakistani government but far less hassle right now to target Russia because Russia isn't in a position to turn the screws on IS-K recruitment and facilitation. 

It is worth pointing out that IS-K is not the force it was in 2019 and now that it can't collaborate with the Haqqani Network in the way that it used to, it needs to pick and choose its targets carefully as well as implied above, ensure that its recruitment and logistics aren't disrupted.  Quite a few of the attacks this year have shown that IS-K is almost relearning its trade.  The August 31 attack on a Taliban military convoy in Kotal Khair Khana in Kabul's Police District 17 was a good example.  This was a VBIED and the intent was to target a bus full of Taliban military but the device was triggered too soon and a minibus with civilians aboard travelling in front of the military bus got the brunt of the blast.  That sort of botched execution was rare before August last year.

This attack was more about embarrassing the Taliban than attacking Russia although the suicide bomber made sure he got two of them.  The message was very much that the Taliban cannot keep foreign diplomats secure like they promised rather than Russia is a hated infidel country.

Other than that Steve ... I have no idea

Thanks for that!  I made a complete stab in the dark guess that it was because there wasn't much to choose from and Russia presented the best option.  You know, standard considerations when planning something

I found all your details about what's going on there fascinating.  Off topic as it might be!  Sadly, I need to hire an assistant to brief me on everything not directly related to this war.  I appreciate you helping a fella out.

OK, so it seems that the attack against the Russian compound was more likely related to IS-K's conflict with the Taliban rather than something specific to Russia.  Though I am sure they were more than happy that Russia was a viable target and they didn't have to debate the merits of hitting the Pakistanis.

Steve

[Grigb]

UKR rumors of hard fighting at Savyntsi

 

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The infiltration attack on Balaklya is exactly what I've been waiting to see Ukraine do. 

Russians on Lostarmor or on some other resourse told that Rosgvardiya units, which have to maintain security of cities continuously, indeed most of time sit on their bases and go out only on tasks. No dividing the settlements on sectors with document checking, when civilians cross from one to other - weak checkpoints around the city. So, such passive acomplishing of duties led to such result.

Other news from Balakliya - Russian SOBR detachment of Samara oblast encircled on Kharkiv direcrion (i/e north from Balakliya) "with poor chances". And of course Russians claimed they were atatcked by "foreign English-speacking merceneries"

 

Edited September 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[kraze]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Hold the phone a minute...Russia is purchasing millions of indirect fire ammo from NK.  I thought Russia had a bottomless ocean of artillery ammunition stocks?  Why do they need to buy more?  "HIMARS were a minor irritant and the RA was just going to blast the UA off the battlefield inch by inch with a never ending supply of ammo."

Whoops. 

Purchasing 40-50 years old ammo they gave to NK for free

[kraze]

3 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

Based on villages and cities leveled during far eastern offensive a few months ago and the many videos of landscapes that look like the surface of the moon, I would say there was zero consideration of ammunition expenditure concerns.  I think that is catching up with them now.

That's Soviet doctrine. You shell it until it doesn't move anymore, if it moves - shell it again until it doesn't, repeat until moon surface because it will always move, but you are too dumb to understand that people defending their land fight differently from the ever invaders and a single guy in the bushes in 2022 can take out your best tank (and its crew) from 2 miles away.

So of course it doesn't work since Russia is forever stuck reliving 1945 and the world has moved on since, including how the war is fought. Maybe it's some kind of a closet thing where they cannot accept the "correct" side losing, can even be seen in nazi soldiers they mass put on "victory" posters every 9th of May, too omnipresent to be a "coincidence" every time. Or an occasional but constant slips about how Jews are evil from top government officials.

Their ballistic missiles stocks seem to be suffering the same faith. They fired 3500+ missiles at us and now have to heavily ration them - but with stuff like NASAMS coming - whatever they have left will be even less effective.

Edited September 6, 2022 by kraze

[Haiduk]

What could carry Rosgvardiya armored car to make such BOOM?

 

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Major Anton Kuznetsov, deputy battalion commander, VDV, he is from Tula, so likely served in 106th VDV division. Got lost in Kherson oblast during the strike at bridge or pontoon crossing. This photo is old, when he was a cadet.

Lt.colonel Igor Yarmanov, artillery, got lost on 1st of Sep. 

Too low rank for the top-brass list, but just interesting detail - on Kherson direction is operating some group  of 147th SP-howitzer regiment of 2nd "Tamanskaya" MRD. This guy, captain Aleksey Litvinov, arty battery commander was killed in Nova Kakhovka on 31st of Aug

 

Edited September 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

And of course Russians claimed they were atatcked by "foreign English-speacking merceneries"

Not hard to guess which country they will be coming from.

 

A clip showing reportedly captured Russian medical equipment. From 70's.

 

[Haiduk]

Together with Samara oblast SOBR, their comrades from Bashkiriya Republic SOBR also in encirclement. 

On the screens  - both SOBRs claimed they will not going to surrender. Samara SOBR already doesn't get in touch. Bashkirians said last farewell. 

[Haiduk]

UKR troops are driving forward in Kherson oblast

 

[dan/california]

55 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russians on Lostarmor or on some other resourse told that Rosgvardiya units, which have to maintain security of cities continuously, indeed most of time sit on their bases and go out only on tasks. No dividing the settlements on sectors with document checking, when civilians cross from one to other - weak checkpoints around the city. So, such passive acomplishing of duties led to such result.

Other news from Balakliya - Russian SOBR detachment of Samara oblast encircled on Kharkiv direcrion (i/e north from the city) "with poor chances". And of course Russians claimed they were atatcked by "foreign English-speacking merceneries"

 

One of the things the U.S. learned the hard way in the middle east is that when the threat level is high enough that occupying forces can only move around in squads, or even worse platoons, there aren't enough soldiers on the whole planet to provide meaningful coverage of even a medium sized city. The math just doesn't work, so you wind up sitting in 'secure" positions without any idea what is actually happening in the city. Ukraine is infinitely worse for the Russians because they don't even have enough of a language/appearance differential to even be sure the guys pulling up in the Tigr are on their side. This is one of the many reasons Steve said the Russians were doomed even if they took all or most of Ukraine.

Edit: throw in the fact that the Russians are drunk, lazy, corrupt, and incompetent....

Edited September 6, 2022 by dan/california

[sross112]

Seeing a definite uptick in pictures and videos of captured Russians the last couple days. I think that is a very good indicator that things are going well for the UA. Hoping to see large units/formations soon!! With the reported surrounding of a couple units in the posts above I bet we won't have to wait long.

I'm very interested to see what a military defeat in Kherson or multiple units captured in other areas will do in the political circles in Russia. I know there needs to be a catalyst for big changes or shifts to happen and I think this sort of thing will be a major trigger.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

UKR troops are driving forward in Kherson oblast

 

The most important thing in this video is that they have painted aerial recognition marks on their vehicles.  I can't remember if I have ever seen Ukraine bother with aerial recognition markings until now.  This indicates that they expect to have friendly air cover and that expectation was communicated to them from higher command.  That, in turn, shows that higher levels of command are optimistic about their chances of providing air support.

I like the way this is going

Steve

[Vacillator]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This indicates that they expect to have friendly air cover

Or don't wish to be misidentified by drones?

[G.I. Joe]

11 hours ago, Pete Wenman said:

Its likely a Mi-35m which has non retractable undercarriage in order to reduce weight.

P

Ah, yes...that makes a lot more sense, thanks. I could see how leaving the undercarriage down might occasionally prevent a crash as described in my previous post but couldn't get past thinking that it would be much more likely to catch on something and lead to a noseover or immediate structural damage...

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Seeing a definite uptick in pictures and videos of captured Russians the last couple days. I think that is a very good indicator that things are going well for the UA. Hoping to see large units/formations soon!! With the reported surrounding of a couple units in the posts above I bet we won't have to wait long.

I'm very interested to see what a military defeat in Kherson or multiple units captured in other areas will do in the political circles in Russia. I know there needs to be a catalyst for big changes or shifts to happen and I think this sort of thing will be a major trigger.

Russian forces are very spread out and isolated.  My expectation is that frontline units surrendering will yield fairly small number of POWs at any one spot.  Like the 7 that were shown a couple of days ago.  However, because the way Russia's defenses are structured even "small" surrender events can have locally catastrophic implications for Russia's defenses.

That said, we are starting to enter a very dangerous phase of the Kherson operation for both sides.  Both sides are now focusing on conducting improvised maneuver warfare vs. the fixed position warfare of the past 6 months.  Ukraine needs to move forces into Russian held territory very carefully to ensure it doesn't overextend and get hit by Russia counter attacks. 

On the other hand, Ukraine's forces are operating according to some sort of plan that has been thought out in advance.  Russia is reacting and whatever higher level Russian commands might know about the details, I doubt it's been efffectively communicated down to the tactical units doing the fighting.

It is more probable that Ukraine's maneuver forces are where they are expected to be doing what they were tasked with accomplishing.  Russian forces, on the other hand, are more likely improvising based on (at best) various contingency plans.  This gives Ukraine a lot of advantages.

Steve

[danfrodo]

12 minutes ago, sross112 said:

I'm very interested to see what a military defeat in Kherson or multiple units captured in other areas will do in the political circles in Russia.

yeah, gonna be fun to watch what happens if Putler's Pocket is as big a disaster as we expect.  It's obvious to everyone on earth this was a doomed choice and he even put more units inside it!!  And it's all Putin, he chose this, 100%, and probably over objections from at least some of his military commanders.  They might not have said it more than once that it was doomed, but I suspect some of them said it at least once.

[Haiduk]

We have gaining not only near Balakliya. 

Today UKR troops are continuing to expand own zone of control on northern bank of Siverskyi Donets. There was reports about intensive fire near Dibrova village next to Ozerne, liberated recently. Result unknown.

 

Also appeared first confirmation UKR troops entered to Staryi Karavan village

Looks like UKR forces is seizing forest massive between Lyman and Yampil' 

Also one of SOF fighters made a hint we have some gains toward Lysychansk refinery.

 

PS. About Vysokopillia. UKR trops liberated it on Sep 2, only yesterday the photo with flag appeared in media.

 

Edited September 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

You know Russian and pro-russian sources are going to freak out if Ukraine really did conduct a envelopment of the city and trapped substantial units inside. One, Kherson was supposed to take most of UKR reserves. Two, say UKR was desperately trying to launch offensives all along the front line to gain ground to keep Western support, these offensives should not be encircling Russian units in fortified strategic points like Balakleya, but more akin to the grinding battles in Kherson that Russians are boasting are grinding the ZSU down to nothing.

Three, even if the ZSU had the forces to conduct a encirclement, the VVS should have destroyed those pincers, and the artillery should be mopping them up.

That all of these should fail, will probably explode a few blood clots in their heads.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

Or don't wish to be misidentified by drones?

Drones are a form of air support

I don't think this was done for drones.  If so, we would have likely seen Ukrainian vehicles with similar markings for months now.  However, it certainly does help to have a drone operator not call an artillery strike on friendly forces!  So it does work for drone support as well as traditional air support.

Steve