How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

I am starting to think this is all going to work out.

[Huba]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I am starting to think this is all going to work out.

If I was RU I'd just fill the lock with gravel ( that should be pre-positioned nearby). Would solve the problem for good. IMO UA will have to hit the main bridge later, probably the curved bit. 

Pictures of the collapsed bridge:

 

Edited September 3, 2022 by Huba

[Huba]

An absolutely amazing thread, analyzing RU positions around Chornobayivka. Against recon like this I can't see them standing for long... 

 

[DesertFox]

Looking for a new job? Holy crap!

 

 

[Huba]

 

[DesertFox]

Great news!

 

 

[akd]

Looks like that YPR-765 was towed off by a T-90M.  Not sure who is operating these in the Kherson bridgehead.

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Possible, however it is still too early to tell if it is already a pattern or just another incident. Small cracks on opposition on both sides (short arrests, interrogations, threats etc.) are fairly common along the board back and then, just to remind people that it is state mafia who is The Ultimate mafia.

OK, so we are in agreement that Putin is not acting against these guys for pragmatic reasons, not because someone close to him is keeping them safe.  This is an important point in our tea leaf reading because, up until recently, we had guessed that high ranking FSB guys were keeping them safe.  That might have been the case in the past, but it feels less likely now.

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

I'd disagree about fear part; the rest holds water, especially part about "powerful back" that supposedly shields them against Putin's will (nothing do, if he really wants). Kremlin doesn't fear them, it is much too big word here- if it would, general population would immediatelly feel it. However it is true he may find that he "overinvested" in whole movement too much (still debatable, though), and silencing them brings more harm than benefits for now. The most probable reason Kremlin not finishing Girkinoids careers is simply he find them useful for something.

I'll remove the word "fear" as it is, I admit, a loaded term.  The primary point I am trying to make is that Putin seems to associate acting against the RU Nats with some sort of negative consequences for him.  This is what you seem to be speaking to when you say "over investment".  The DPLR was largely outsourced to the RU Nats with Russian state support (of course).  The DLPR is the center of this war and without the RU Nats there is a risk of it collapsing.  I made this point in more detail in our previous exchanges.

Therefore, I think we have a pretty clear logical reason why Putin is not acting against the RU Nats even though others aren't allowed to do what these guys are doing.  That reason is that Putin is concerned that if he goes after the RU Nats then it will likely undermine stability in DLPR enough to cause major headaches.  Especially with the official Kremlin line for why this war is being fought.  Therefore, for now, he's trying to nudge them into being less "off message".

Which could mean that Putin is not concerned of a direct threat to his regime by the RU Nats, rather he is concerned that acting against them would set in motion a domino effect that would eventually wind up being a threat to his regime.  In the end it might amount to the same thing, but not in the sort of direct coup sort of way.

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

It is ofc a Riddle of this war why the hell these guys are still broadcating (and note, there are only handful of them- 3-4 important personas with rather medium amount of viewers). What can it be? If I 'd be forced to put money, it would be they keep military Top Brass + generally more ambitious and active parts of Russian mil/sec apparatus in check.

Possibly Putin views them as a power check, however Putin could do this through more direct actions such as sacking people he views as problematic.  I think the previous explanation I gave is more plausible.

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

There are other possible reasons. They are effectively supporting war effort and very useful at that. They also help spreading the word of Great Russia, which if kept under relative controll, is quite useful in current circumstances.

Ofc . it may be that Kremlin is severly underestimating their importance in the end (internet can be tricky in this regard, as it is difficult to guess how much real phenomenon can be), and in the future they can give it several nasty surprises. But for now eveything still seems to be in check. And regime has whole collection of cards he can play. And sticks, clubs, brass knuckles, revolvers, rifles etc. if they will ever be needed.

This is back to the "over investment" theory and I agree this has been part of the reason for why Putin hasn't acted against them.  In English we call this "buyer's remorse".  The classic example is someone with limited finances spending big money on something they can't really afford.  The inadvisable expenditure then becomes a burden to them and they have regrets, especially if what they invested in no longer has the value it once had.  I imagine Putin being quite unhappy about his options.  The more vocal the RU Nats get, the more unhappy he will become. 

At some point I think Putin will see the balance change and decide that acting against them is less risky than allowing them to continue doing what they do.  As I have said many times, the RU Nats are fanatics... fanatics don't tend to be too smart about boundaries.

Steve

[sburke]

Not a surprise to anyone here

Putin's New 3rd Army Corps Suffers Setbacks, Equipment Not Ready: Kyiv (msn.com)

Quote

 

However, Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence said that equipment and personnel problems were hampering Russia's ability to form the new corps.

"The issue of establishment of the 3rd Army Corps will drag on until November," he told Ukrainian Military Television, adding that it would take "three to four months" for Russia to train its specialists.

He said that "according to our assessments, 40 percent of [Russia's] military equipment is not combat-ready. "It needs to be repaired and put in order," he added, according to a translation of his comments carried by Ukrainian publication Defense Express.

He said the latest equipment Russia was using "entered our territory in February-March" and that the units being formed "are still equipped with Soviet-style weapons." Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.

 

 

Edited September 3, 2022 by sburke

[Artkin]

3 hours ago, benpark said:

There's going to be a lot of heavy equipment left on the western side that can't be pulled out by ferry. All easily used and ammo'ed up by the Ukrainian forces.

Another useless attempt to stave off disaster along a bad position near a river in order to hold a city for political gain.

 

Whoever made that chart really rushed through it. Airborne APCs are now BTR's. BMD's are APC's. A couple blatant spelling errors. 

Also a formation like 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade was noted to have 30 BTR-80 only. My source is Rand's "Russia's limit of Advance" from 2020. Things could have changed since then, but I'll always be a skeptic of the twitter bin.  

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, akd said:

Looks like that YPR-765 was towed off by a T-90M.  Not sure who is operating these in the Kherson bridgehead.

 

Rumor was that 5th Tank Brigade received them and is, in fact, mostly equipped with donated vehicles.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Likely SOF walked through the border %)

 

This is exactly the sort of thing we should expect to see to keep Russian reserves and deployed units rushing around all over the place.  Russia is obligated to do it because if they don't, they are inviting Ukraine to get more "free publicity" showing Russia as inept and losing the war.

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Rumor was that 5th Tank Brigade received them and is, in fact, mostly equipped with donated vehicles.

Steve

He meant what Russian unit has T-90M. They're rare and have mostly been seen in the Kharkiv area. The new 3rd Army Corps has some.

[Calamine Waffles]

27 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

He meant what Russian unit has T-90M. They're rare and have mostly been seen in the Kharkiv area. The new 3rd Army Corps has some.

Before the war, the only unit known to have T-90Ms was the 27th Motor Rifle Brigade.

[akd]

44 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

He meant what Russian unit has T-90M. They're rare and have mostly been seen in the Kharkiv area. The new 3rd Army Corps has some.

Most likely some element of the 20th Guards MRD.  Both 19th and 20th MRDs were slated to receive T-90Ms as of summer 2021.

https://iz.ru/1173026/anton-lavrov-anna-cherepanova/zabronirovali-proryv-iug-rossii-usiliat-noveishimi-tankami-t-90m

EDIT: one T-90M was also seen in Russian journalist’s report from the Zaporhizhia front about a month ago or so.

Edited September 3, 2022 by akd

[Battlefront.com]

34 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

He meant what Russian unit has T-90M. They're rare and have mostly been seen in the Kharkiv area. The new 3rd Army Corps has some.

Ah   Well, they are both fairly rare beasts, but I see why the T-90M is more interesting.

I just checked Schlottman's summary and as of August 27th there was neither 3rd AC or 27th MRB noted on the right bank.  However, we do know they hurried some stuff over in the last week or so and 3rd AC certainly is in the neighborhood.  My guess is OSINT hasn't picked up on who it is yet, but 3rd AC seems the likely suspect.

Steve

[Huba]

Some kind fella did a Strelkov translation from today:

 

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

Some kind fella did a Strelkov translation from today:

 

heh funny comment in there.

Quote

Hmm. He’s usually actually (fairly) accurate. Of course, totally possible someone had a ‘conversation’ with him. Near a window.

 

[Calamine Waffles]

8 minutes ago, akd said:

Most likely some element of the 20th Guards MRD.  Both 19th and 20th MRDs were slated to receive T-90Ms as of summer 2021.

https://iz.ru/1173026/anton-lavrov-anna-cherepanova/zabronirovali-proryv-iug-rossii-usiliat-noveishimi-tankami-t-90m

This was not completed as of September 2021. At that time only 27 MRB (1 TA) had it.

https://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2021/09/c-2021.html

[akd]

22 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

This was not completed as of September 2021. At that time only 27 MRB (1 TA) had it.

https://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2021/09/c-2021.html

Yes, but there were additional sets (I think company-sized) that left the factory after 27 MRB had received their set of 30.  We just know that 19th and 20th MRD from the SMD were among the units planned to be re-equipped, and so could have been recipients of small numbers of subsequent deliveries.  Also, a single T-90M was seen in a Russian journalist’s report from the Zaporizhzhia front about a month or so ago.

EDIT: here it is. From July 10:

 

Edited September 3, 2022 by akd

[dan/california]

26 minutes ago, sburke said:

heh funny comment in there.

 

Not his usual tone at all, someone told him to toe the line or take long walk out a short window ledge. The interesting bit will be what happens when the Russian position on the west side disasters. 

[Grigb]

36 minutes ago, Huba said:

Some kind fella did a Strelkov translation from today:

 

Sorry for not posting it earlier but got distracted by other life and also something more interesting happened that I am writing about now.

Also, I do rate Girkin now a less reliable source (40%-50% reliability, down from 80%). Anyway here is my take on his post.

Quote

The situation in the Mykolaiv direction of the Kherson Front (from the Ochakov estuary to Snihirevka):

The front line is unchanged (which means that there are no enemy advances, including under the Ternovy Pid, at all). There is a lot of artillery now [number of arty guns increased recently] - [especially] self-propelled guns. They come from different sides [fire] several shots at maximum range and go back [to positions] near Mikolaev. Mines and grenades are thrown from quadrocopters to firing positions. The main strikes - on artillery - [UKR arty] hardly bothers the infantry.

HIMARS hit the crossing several times a day. I don't know how many they have [missiles]. They pour dozens every day. Yesterday, 4 strikes were carried out with HIMARS "packages" (6 missiles each) to pontoon ferries of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Despite the hits that got through, the ferries continue to work. The supply of equipment and ammunition to our troops continues, despite the inevitable difficulties.
The enemy is also trying to use manned aircraft in attacks, but its effectiveness is close to zero.

The enemy's plan, I assume, is to suppress artillery by removing the supply of ammo and directly destroying the guns. This is a necessary condition for the success of his offensive actions.
Our troops are conducting active counter-battery fire and striking at the concentration points of enemy units and subunits.

I expect data on changes in the situation in the area of enemy bridgeheads on the Ingulets River today and will post it as it becomes available.

 

[Calamine Waffles]

32 minutes ago, akd said:

Yes, but there were additional sets (I think company-sized) that left the factory after 27 MRB had received their set of 30.  We just know that 19th and 20th MRD from the SMD were among the units planned to be re-equipped, and so could have been recipients of small numbers of subsequent deliveries.  Also, a single T-90M was seen in a Russian journalist’s report from the Zaporizhzhia front about a month or so ago.

Yes, after the war started more were delivered, but we don't know to which units for certain.

Edited September 3, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[pavel.k]

Reportedly 70 thousand people demonstration in Prague for leaving EU and cancelling sanctions against Russia. They all are jumping to arms of extremists so easily. And it is still summer...EU should hurry and finally set the cap for gas and oil price.

[Grigb]

I am writing now about the unexpected Kadyrov announcement. It will take some time.  Meanwhile, a small update about battle. It seems today UKR assaulted and captured Blahodativka that threatened right flank of the new Bridgehead with crossing near Andrriivka (it merged with old Bridgehead on the left flank). According to RU claims it was taking attacking from both sides - from outskirts initially captured at the beginning of the battle and from other side of Inhulets river using tactical crossing.   

Dated but still relevant map