How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

18 minutes ago, poesel said:

This is a lengthy article (in German from a Russian) about what could happen when Putin falls:

https://www.boell.de/de/2022/08/24/wenn-putin-stuerzt

TLDR: it is highly unlikely that Russia can reform itself or that Russian expats can form a new government. The West needs to support & educate Russians (expats) so that they will be able to create a functioning Russian government. Else, Russia will stay what it is.

Interesting article, but easier said than done. Personally I think it's an illusion to think that Russia can become a democracy. Not going to happen.The alternative is to weaken Russia as much as possible, so no matter what lunatic seizes power after the present lunatic can't threaten it's neighbours anymore. 

Personally for instance I think all Russians in the Baltics should be forced to return to Russia for starters. Won't happen of course, because we are softies. We will never get rid of the Russian problem. The only thing we can do is arm ourselves to the teeth. 

[akd]

Sigh…

 

[Aragorn2002]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

Sigh…

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1.  Collapse comes in many forms.

Hmm, has Uber pulled out of Russia? Should it be boycotted?

2.  More quality after-action forensics by Danspiun....

3. Wow, pretty heavy stuff to be calling down on a tactical formation.

 

Edited September 2, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[kevinkin]

Take the source with a ton of salt, but it's evident every one hates Russia. Quotes western sources, so in this particular case, worth a quick read:

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/09/02/gtwd-s02.html

Would the west arm Ukraine just enough to keep the war going infinitely dispatching Russia with a 1000 cuts? Those damn nukes they have are a PIA geopolitically. 

[Butschi]

25 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Interesting article, but easier said than done. Personally I think it's an illusion to think that Russia can become a democracy. Not going to happen.The alternative is to weaken Russia as much as possible, so no matter what lunatic seizes power after the present lunatic can't threaten it's neighbours anymore. 

Personally for instance I think all Russians in the Baltics should be forced to return to Russia for starters. Won't happen of course, because we are softies. We will never get rid of the Russian problem. The only thing we can do is arm ourselves to the teeth. 

I'd say that's called being civilized, not soft... Anyway, yes, the Baltics could throw out the Russians but what would they gain from that except some measure of satisfaction. I mean, half the conflicts in the world are about someone having thrown out someone else. For good measure let's start by "relocating" all the Russians to some camps. For their own safety, of course. While we are are it, let's just confiscate their property to pay for our expenses in this war.

We (the West) can rationalize each and every of these measure. Maybe I'm just naive, I mean we could just go full realpolitik and do whatever we feel necessary, morals be damned, but that would hurt our already damaged credibility and that is a kind of capital that should not be underestimated.

 

[The_Capt]

55 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

it seems that it is very hot in Visokopyla

Finish.

[Aragorn2002]

18 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I'd say that's called being civilized, not soft... Anyway, yes, the Baltics could throw out the Russians but what would they gain from that except some measure of satisfaction. I mean, half the conflicts in the world are about someone having thrown out someone else. For good measure let's start by "relocating" all the Russians to some camps. For their own safety, of course. While we are are it, let's just confiscate their property to pay for our expenses in this war.

We (the West) can rationalize each and every of these measure. Maybe I'm just naive, I mean we could just go full realpolitik and do whatever we feel necessary, morals be damned, but that would hurt our already damaged credibility and that is a kind of capital that should not be underestimated.

 

Lieber ein Ende mit Schrecken als ein Schrecken ohne Ende.

[kraze]

20 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Anyway, yes, the Baltics could throw out the Russians but what would they gain from that except some measure of satisfaction.

Safety.

Every russian is an occupier wherever he is - because he behaves like one and should be treated as such. They do not come to some country to assimilate and accept the native culture - they come to establish an enclave that sooner or later will have russian invaders drop in there - and met with open arms.

Don't even need to go for proof far.

So booting russians out is much less riskier than allowing them to exploit the civility of a country and weaken it - which will bring countless victims and horrible suffering.

[Aragorn2002]

43 minutes ago, kraze said:

Safety.

Every russian is an occupier wherever he is - because he behaves like one and should be treated as such. They do not come to some country to assimilate and accept the native culture - they come to establish an enclave that sooner or later will have russian invaders drop in there - and met with open arms.

Don't even need to go for proof far.

So booting russians out is much less riskier than allowing them to exploit the civility of a country and weaken it - which will bring countless victims and horrible suffering.

That. Didn't want to bother to post a lengthy post myself, because it's so evident, but that. 

It's all so sickening predictable.

Edited September 2, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[chuckdyke]

If you migrate there are only two options. Give up your old citizenship and assimilate or go back where you came from. Never forget where you came from but assimilate in your new country. Just remember where you left your footprints. Plenty of other people think otherwise and they are not appreciated. 

[dan/california]

8 hours ago, MikeyD said:

This conflict has been the source of much surprise at how multiple supposed CM2 'AI errors' resemble actual behavior on the battlefield. I don't think anyone's going to be complaining about CM modern war casualty rates anymore.

Steve has been proven right a LOT. And even when the game's AI has been "wrong" it is better than ~90% of actual Russian commanders. Also, the next game is going to have to deal with mines in more detail given their importance in this war.

Edited September 2, 2022 by dan/california

[Butschi]

14 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

If you migrate there are only two options. Give up your old citizenship and assimilate or go back where you came from. Never forget where you came from but assimilate in your new country. Just remember where you left your footprints. Plenty of other people think otherwise and they are not appreciated. 

I'd say integrate not assimilate. You are not required to lose your identity and culture but accept that your new host country has a different culture and adept to that.

Well, easier said than done and double standards are a thing here, too. I mean, I live near Stuttgart, Germany, and look at all the stuff for the US military here. I think it is perfectly possible to live here without ever getting into contact with German society. Not that I'd blame anyone, I'm from the Rhineland and after 10 years I'm quite certain the Swabians don't want me to integrate and I don't really want either. Also beer from Stuttgart sucks, give me Kölsch, thank you very much.

 

[Aragorn2002]

20 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I'd say integrate not assimilate. You are not required to lose your identity and culture but accept that your new host country has a different culture and adept to that.

Well, easier said than done and double standards are a thing here, too. I mean, I live near Stuttgart, Germany, and look at all the stuff for the US military here. I think it is perfectly possible to live here without ever getting into contact with German society. Not that I'd blame anyone, I'm from the Rhineland and after 10 years I'm quite certain the Swabians don't want me to integrate and I don't really want either. Also beer from Stuttgart sucks, give me Kölsch, thank you very much.

 

Some weeks ago I've watched a documentary about Russians in Latvia. They were send there to absorb the 'fascist' Latvian population and still only have one wish: for Latvia to be annexed back to the Russian motherland. They refuse to speak Latvian, live in closed Russian communities and consider themselves to be Russians. They adore Putin and hate Latvia and the 'unjustice' of history. Now, tell me how to find a civilised solution for that problem. And while doing that try to remember the suffering of the Balts and the death or deportation of a huge part of them under the Russian occupation. Words are so cheap nowadays, especially in Germany, I'm sorry to say.

Edited September 2, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[chuckdyke]

4 minutes ago, Butschi said:

You are not required to lose your identity and culture but accept that your new host country has a different culture and adept to that.

When I went to the States, they thought I was an Australian and not a Dutchman. Last time I was in the Netherlands people who spoke English to me never thought I was born a local. Sad Amsterdam in summertime half the time you heard other languages mostly English. I still speak Dutch and conversational German. Now I follow Aussie rules and not the Euro Cup. Russians who moved to the Ukraine should see themselves as Ukrainian and not Russian. Here is where the problem is good old-fashioned Chauvinism. Ukrainians got every right to expect other nationalities to speak their language if they choose to live on their territory. 

[Butschi]

5 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

When I went to the States, they thought I was an Australian and not a Dutchman. Last time I was in the Netherlands people who spoke English to me never thought I was born a local. Sad Amsterdam in summertime half the time you heard other languages mostly English. I still speak Dutch and conversational German. Now I follow Aussie rules and not the Euro Cup. Russians who moved to the Ukraine should see themselves as Ukrainian and not Russian. Here is where the problem is good old-fashioned Chauvinism. Ukrainians got every right to expect other nationalities to speak their language if they choose to live on their territory. 

I agree, when moving abroad, at the very least learn the language. Just saying, let's not apply double standards here. I know lots of people who move to Germany for work, go to university, whatever and can't be bothered to learn German. And then they complain that in an international company, they can expect to be able to get by with English. Not to mention the unfriendly people in the bakery who just speak German out of pure spite. Not learning the language (partly for chauvinistic reasons!) is hardly a special Russian feature.

 

[acrashb]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

has Uber pulled out of Russia? Should it be boycotted?

Yes, and so no.

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I agree, when moving abroad, at the very least learn the language. Just saying, let's not apply double standards here. I know lots of people who move to Germany for work, go to university, whatever and can't be bothered to learn German. And then they complain that in an international company, they can expect to be able to get by with English. Not to mention the unfriendly people in the bakery who just speak German out of pure spite. Not learning the language (partly for chauvinistic reasons!) is hardly a special Russian feature.

 

But waiting and hoping for the rest of your fellow countrymen to invade in order to supress the original population is...

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

Every russian is an occupier wherever he is - because he behaves like one and should be treated as such. They do not come to some country to assimilate and accept the native culture - they come to establish an enclave that sooner or later will have russian invaders drop in there - and met with open arms.

Ah, yes, here we go again. Each and every Russian. Well, I know Russians who are not like you describe them, so your theory is already falsified.

[Zeleban]

paradoxes of ballistics

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

paradoxes of ballistics

That will earn him a medal from the motherland.

[The_Capt]

Ok...STOP.

  I am not a moderator on this forum but I have @BFCElvis on speed dial.  This thread is about the war Ukraine and, yes we have discussed surrounding issues and possible 2nd and 3rd order effects this war could have on the region.  This thread is not about:

- Bafflingly narrow or simply out of date concepts such as solving human cultural overlaps with policy.

- Vilifying the entirely of all Russian peoples as somehow less than human.  No human society, culture or whatever has or ever will be entirely homogeneous, good or bad.  So sweeping ideas of how to solve a "Russian Problem" by a bunch of old guys with too much time on their hands, which they should spend learning more, are not 1) viable or 2) useful here.

- I get we are sore on Russia right now, they earned that one; however, at what point on this incredibly myopic line of thinking do we become worse than that we assign to them?  All in the name of "safety" - a whole lot of atrocity and historic marks of shame lay on the feet of "safety".  I have been to one genocide and trust me none of you know what you are talking about, so stop hijacking the thread.

- FFS, we did not even take the approaches some are proposing here during the Cold War, we went with "contain and attract/entice", and we won that one.  In fact we look back on the occasion of the McCarthy era - which is where this is going- as a dark chapter 

You wanna talk about mass deportations, forced migration, race/ethnic cleansing/purity or any other whack-job nonsense there is literally an entire internet out there, let's try and keep this one small "sane space".    

Edited September 4, 2022 by The_Capt

[Grigb]

58 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Also, the next game is going to have to deal with mines in more detail given their importance in this war.

Correct. AT mines is an essential ingredient of UKR defense. DPR extensivly use petal mines in both defense and offence (for example to prevent UKR manning or reinforcing defensive positions after end of shelling)

[Butschi]

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok...STOP.

  I am not a moderator on this forum but I have @BFCElvis on speed dial.  This thread is about the war Ukraine and, yes we have discussed surrounding issues and possible 2nd and 3rd order effects this war could have on the region.  This thread is not about:

- Bafflingly narrow or simply out of date concepts such as solving human cultural overlaps with policy.

- Vilifying the entirely of all Russian peoples as somehow less than human.  No human society, culture or whatever has or ever will be entirely homogeneous, good or bad.  So sweeping ideas of how to solve a "Russian Problem" by a bunch of old guys with too much time on their hands, which they should spend learning more, are not 1) viable or 2) useful here.

- I get we are sore on Russia right now, they earned that one; however, at what point on this incredibly myopic line of thinking do we become worse than we assign to them?  All in the name of "safety" - a whole lot of atrocity and historic marks of shame lay on the feet of "safety".  I have been to one genocide and trust me none of you know what you are talking about, so stop hijacking the thread.

- FFS, we did not even take the approaches some are proposing here during the Cold War, we went with "contain and attract/entice", and we won that one.  In fact we look back on the occasion of the McCarthy era - which is where this is going- as a dark chapter 

You wanna to go talk about mass deportations, forced migration, race/ethnic cleansing/purity or any other whack-job nonsense there is literally an entire internet out there, let's try and keep this one small "sane space".    

This, thanks.

[Aragorn2002]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok...STOP.

  I am not a moderator on this forum but I have @BFCElvis on speed dial.  This thread is about the war Ukraine and, yes we have discussed surrounding issues and possible 2nd and 3rd order effects this war could have on the region.  This thread is not about:

- Bafflingly narrow or simply out of date concepts such as solving human cultural overlaps with policy.

- Vilifying the entirely of all Russian peoples as somehow less than human.  No human society, culture or whatever has or ever will be entirely homogeneous, good or bad.  So sweeping ideas of how to solve a "Russian Problem" by a bunch of old guys with too much time on their hands, which they should spend learning more, are not 1) viable or 2) useful here.

- I get we are sore on Russia right now, they earned that one; however, at what point on this incredibly myopic line of thinking do we become worse than we assign to them?  All in the name of "safety" - a whole lot of atrocity and historic marks of shame lay on the feet of "safety".  I have been to one genocide and trust me none of you know what you are talking about, so stop hijacking the thread.

- FFS, we did not even take the approaches some are proposing here during the Cold War, we went with "contain and attract/entice", and we won that one.  In fact we look back on the occasion of the McCarthy era - which is where this is going- as a dark chapter 

You wanna to go talk about mass deportations, forced migration, race/ethnic cleansing/purity or any other whack-job nonsense there is literally an entire internet out there, let's try and keep this one small "sane space".    

Exaggerated nonsense.

McCarthty was btw a hero and basically correct.