How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

17 hours ago, Taranis said:

"Death of the chairman of the board of directors of Loukoil
Ravil Maganov, chairman of the board of Lukoil oil company, has died. “He fell out of the window of a Moscow hospital”, report the Interfax and TASS agencies, the latter referring to a “suicide”. In a first dispatch, the TASS agency mentioned a “fall from the sixth floor”. Lukoil, a private group, called in early March, a week after Russian forces entered Ukraine and as the West stepped up sanctions, to quickly halt the Russian offensive there."
 

 

 

Added him to the oligarch section of our list.  Curious why now.  Any thoughts Steve on this one as a message to the Oligarch faction?

Edited September 2, 2022 by sburke

[danfrodo]

44 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

You have summoned me once again, this thread is no place for the bearer of the jeweled crown of Aquilonia!

well done, Fireship4.  By the way y'all, if you've never read the Conan books you really are missing out on a treasure trove of literature.  Really, they are great.

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

"Military operations on the scale of this counteroffensive do not succeed or fail in a day or a week, unless it is conducted by Russia."

Above being another thing today that made me laugh out loud. 

I think NAFOs & UKR needs to borrow stuff from this forum.  So many spit-your-beer lines mocking RU.

So, as per Steve's/ISW post above.  We actually know almost nothing about level of UKR success, including feints & deceptions.  I've been thinking for a while that shaping the battlefield is very much req'd for UKR, but sooner or later they have to force RU to fight.  Where RU fights to hard, they can simply back off.  But where RU breaks, there's opportunities.  And as this RU bridgehead thins, it's going to get worse & worse as great portion of RU rear areas comes into range of cheap ordnance (mortars, guns less than 155, etc).

Edited September 2, 2022 by danfrodo
typo

[sburke]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

well done, Fireship4.  By the way y'all, if you've never read the Robert Howard books you really are missing out on a treasure trove of literature.  Really, they are great.

Sowers of the Thunder was probably my favorite

[Offshoot]

23 minutes ago, sburke said:

Added him to the oligarch section of our list.  Curious why now. 

All of the mainstream media I have seen report that he has openly criticised the invasion or, perhaps more correctly, that Lukoil, the company for which he was the chair of the board of directors, did so.

“Calling for the soonest termination of the armed conflict, we express our sincere empathy for all victims who are affected by this tragedy,” the board of directors of Lukoil said. “We strongly support a lasting ceasefire and a settlement of problems through serious negotiations and diplomacy.” (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/01/russian-oil-executive-dies-in-fall-from-moscow-hospital-window)

Another Lukoil employee "died" in May (the shaman dude), so who knows if the timing has meaning or if they were just waiting for the CCTV at the hospital to break.

Edited September 2, 2022 by Offshoot

[sross112]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Op COBRA stands out as a conanical example here - the first couple of days looked like, well, maybe not "failure", in absolute terms, but re-emergent stalemate and the failure of the hopes that had been laid on it by the buildup and extraordinary expenditure of resources.

Then suddenly, on day 3, hey ho we're off to the races.

Edit: and, of course, exactly the same dynamic - on different timescales - played out over the Normandy campaign writ large, and also at el Alamein in Oct-Nov '42.

If I remember right I think the UA 5th and 17th Tank Brigades are on the northern shoulders of the RA in Kherson. I'm thinking that the attacks on the western flank are just the beginning and we will know the hammer is falling when we start hearing and seeing the armored brigades moving.

Either the fog eating snow attrition will open an opportunity for them or these attacks are meant to pin deployed RA forces and draw reserves so the armored fist can break through with minimal interference. I agree that we are really early and need to manage expectations but that is my prediction for when we will know it is full on. 

[Grigb]

5 hours ago, Huba said:

Interesting. Zwastika suddenly lost it's appeal or is it a coordinated action? Or pwrhaps just unfounded Galeev's impression? Calling dr @Grigb

 

This phenomenon does exist, but it is unclear what is causing it. They claim that it is because a lot of scammers appeared recently using the same or similar RU Nat  names and that Z and V in the name somehow help scammers. Hence the reason to remove them. 

[Grigb]

5 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

And  another problem on XXI century high-tech battlefield...can soldiers actually surrender to a drone?

Soon they will be. Controlling prisoners will be one of the functions of the drones. 

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

All of the mainstream media I have seen report that he has openly criticised the invasion or, perhaps more correctly, that Lukoil, the company for which he was the chair of the board of directors, did so.

“Calling for the soonest termination of the armed conflict, we express our sincere empathy for all victims who are affected by this tragedy,” the board of directors of Lukoil said. “We strongly support a lasting ceasefire and a settlement of problems through serious negotiations and diplomacy.” (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/01/russian-oil-executive-dies-in-fall-from-moscow-hospital-window)

Another Lukoil employee "died" in May (the shaman dude), so who knows if the timing has meaning or if they were just waiting for the CCTV at the hospital to break.

Well, if we go with this being a murder (likely, I think), the first question is... who do we think did it?  Unlike Dugina, this one has the usual signature of an FSB killing.  The death is classic FSB and they tend to stick to the classics to help ensure people know what happened and who did it.  That and the FSB seems to like sticking to the classics for old time's sake.  Another thing is he was in a location where there would be plenty of witnesses, CCTV, and records of who came in and out.  But I doubt anybody is talking, there is no CCTV, and definitely no logs.  FSB would have no problem making that happen, other organizations probably could as well... but if someone else did it, screwed around with the evidence and what not, my guess is it wouldn't have been reported as a suicide and the FSB would be "investigating" in a public way.  Instead it's ruled a suicide, open and shut.  They didn't even try to get creative like they did with the "shaman" guy.

OK if we accept that it is a murder and it was likely FSB, then that immediately points to the regime.  However, it's possible it could be some sort of "internal" dispute or the FSB acting on behalf of a third part.  It's Russia, therefore nothing should be ruled out.  For now the safe bet is FSB acting on behalf of the regime as that is the most likely match to the other probable facts.

Motive could be any number of things since Russia is a criminal state through and through.  Could be routine criminal activity, could be state sponsored, could be both at the same time.  Again, this is Russia.  But if it was a murder done by the FSB on behalf of the regime, then the most likely reason is betrayal.  The guy publicly sounded off against Putin, so that is grounds for retaliation.  This is rather severe though, so it would seem it's not routine.

What type or severe betrayal could this be?  Again, it's Russia and this guy was no doubt tied into a lot of different things that could get him killed.  However, given the other circumstances lately, a good guess would be because he's been doing more than badmouthing Putin in public.  Yup... conspiring against Putin is the go to answer for this one.

We don't know why he was in the hospital, I think, but we do have an interesting tidbit.  Putin visited the hospital the day before in order to say goodbye to Gorbachev.  Someone whom he did not like at all.  Suspicious?  Yeah, you bet it is.  Especially because FSB would have been all over that building for plausible reasons.

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-executive-lukoil-ravil-maganov-dead-moscow-window-133254698.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9lbi53aWtpcGVkaWEub3JnLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAI2YSb27fY6wpeKq1E_Amt4loErsGOiRmw_-X0mHGxSG4yuN4CxeMWD6bxbp5S4qvoqbGVC8EZT3RbNAwF48FWtiZjwYXoUHlcyM7z3ACdS6XkbxgCjnczcox__UUdsMiyTR65W1zw0NK4z7UQiQA86EDGRKGRDLs00VYXGyiYQO

 

 

To summarize, it's likely a murder committed by the FSB on official regime business against someone who angered the regime by publicly criticizing it and privately doing something that went beyond criticism.  The overall purpose?  Possibly to send a reminder to the oligarchs that they need to stay away from windows.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, sross112 said:

If I remember right I think the UA 5th and 17th Tank Brigades are on the northern shoulders of the RA in Kherson. I'm thinking that the attacks on the western flank are just the beginning and we will know the hammer is falling when we start hearing and seeing the armored brigades moving.

Yes, both are there and at least their last suspected locations were in the north.  We seem to have confirmation that the 5th Tank Brigade was in action on the first day.  This in the form of pictures of Dutch YPR tracked APC apparently in combat.  5th Tank Brigade is thought to be equipped with the bulk of the Western supplied fighting vehicles.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

The fascinating thing about Kherson is that we know tons about both the general and specific conditions in which this offensive started.  Not just weeks, months.  Based on all of this, here are my predictions.

 

Background

Ukraine has been conducting a series of deep strikes against the Russians in Kherson.  This consists of cutting off their LOCs (bridges over the Dnepr), smashing HQs and logistics bases that support Kherson, and increasingly violent partisan attacks.  Other things have been going on outside of Kherson, but I'm going to leave those out even though they are tangentially related at a minimum.  Obviously the purpose is to weaken Russia's ability to defend its positions.

It's not been explicitly stated in this thread so far, however it's a sure bet that Ukraine has been conducting extensive recon of Russian positions.  The more they've dug in, the easier and more accurate Ukraine's planning be.  With drones, small patrols, and partisans I'm sure Ukraine might have a better picture of Russian positions as the Russians do

 

Russian Logistics

Strategically, the entire Kherson region is cut off from resupply and reinforcements.  Effectively, at least.  This means the entire Russian force on the western bank of the Dnepr has to make do with what it has.  Ukraine, on the other hand, has the shortest supply routes of any sector on the front.

Russia's positions in Kherson are not all equal in terms of internal lines.  Presuming the bulk of Russia's supplies are in/around the city, the northern area is the most exposed to problems.  It is the longest distance and is most vulnerable to being cut off as there are only two significant roads and one of them has been under fire for months now.  The other could be put under pressure fairly easily by HIMARS or advancing forces from the Center or a thrust from the northeast.

The center is not all that much better because here is one primary road to Kherson and it is already under threat from the existing Ukrainian bridgehead south of Davydiv Brid.  Russia was unable to destroy the bridgehead, which tells us something about Russia's abilities in this area.

The south is the most difficult to disrupt as it backs up into Kherson itself.  Breaking through towards Kherson means fighting troops with the shortest logistics tail and good urban terrain eventually to fall back into.  Also, Russia knows if it loses Kherson it's lost everything else, therefore it is likely heavily defended.  Still, there's really only one major road and a rail line between Russia's forward positions in the Mykolaiv direction and Kherson.  All within artillery range.

 

Supply Reality

Ukraine's "ace up its sleeve" is how uniquely vulnerable the Russian force is to supply problems.  Obviously Russia's ability to move anything significant into Kherson is pretty much zero and whatever is already there is under direct threat of being destroyed by HIMARS/artillery.

Making matters worse, they have already lost vast amounts of supplies (ammo in particular) that took months to build up with logistics that no longer exist.  Even the inadequate alternatives, such as barges and ferries, are also easily targeted whenever Ukraine wishes to hit them.  The result is that for every 10 rounds of ammo the Russians expend, maybe they can mange to sneak over 1 to replace it.

All Ukraine has to do is oblige Russian forces to fire off their ammo and consume their fuel.  Without direct confrontation this could take weeks or months, but with a high intensity fight on their hands?  Could be days for all we know.  Probably a week or two is stretching it.

 

Ukraine's Likely Plan

We have to keep in mind that Ukraine is cautious.  They can't afford to screw this up, and losing too many men and fighting equipment is screwing up.  They are likely to try tactically bold moves within an overall conservative operational plan.  If a tactical move gets defeated, even badly, then the overall plan has a greater chance of survival because it isn't dependent upon dramatic tactical successes.  Russia, on the other hand, has conducted it's attacks for much of this war with bold operational plans that required dramatic successes at the tactical level.  We all know how that turned out

For a large scale offensive there's three likely areas of focus... the northern most positions (south of Kryvyi Rih), the central area of the existing Ukrainian Inhulets bridgehead (south of Davydiv Brid), and southern area (between Mykolaiv and Kherson).  Pretty straight forward, really.  I'll call these the obvious north, central, and southern areas.

It looks like the best thing to do is smash into the center while putting intense pressure on the north and more moderate pressure on the south.  The center can degrade the ability to defend the north and, eventually, cut it off from the south.  The north can dislodge Russians in some places to make it easier to cut up the rest as the center group progresses.  The south is, for the time being, there to keep forces in and around Kherson too busy to help center or north.

When the time is right I expect the Ukrainian forces in the south to attack more aggressively frontally with limited expectations for advance.  However, if Russian forces begin to withdraw they will move up more rapidly.

If any one of these three thrusts yields significant results, Russia will be in trouble.  Lose the north and now its position in the center have their frontage doubled.  Lose the center and the north is pocketed and Kherson is threatened from it's likely weak northerly flank.  Push into Kherson without taking either center or the north means pocketing the bulk of Russia's forces.  Taking none of the three still maintains Russia's cut off status.  Worst case Ukraine just waits for winter to hit and see if they withdraw before they freeze or starve to death.

 

Predicated Outcome

As long as Ukraine plays this conservatively, Russia will lose everything it has in Kherson except for the strong swimmers who make it to the river.  Why so confident?  Russia can't resupply.  Their demise is as inevitable as the brave defenders of Mariupol.  It's physics... nothing to shoot at the enemy means the enemy doesn't die.  If the enemy is able to shoot back, then you die.  It doesn't get much more certain than that, providing that some other circumstance doesn't change the fundamental equation.  I don't see Russia being able to do anything to trick their way out of disaster.

 

Thoughts?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

And a nice picture.  The children of Irpin got a special visitor on their first day back at school... Patron!  Oh, and President Zelensky too.  Not a bad first day!

[sburke]

The US helped Ukraine plan its long-awaited counteroffensive, which has pushed back Russia after a lengthy stalemate, report says (msn.com)

Quote

 

The US helped Ukraine plan its long-awaited counteroffensive by advising it against stretching itself too thin when fighting back against Russia, CNN reported.

The US advised Ukraine to limit the scope of operations both in terms of its aims and the amount of land to cover so it could avoid overextending itself and getting stuck, Western officials, including from the US, and Ukrainian sources told CNN.

Ukraine said on Monday that it had begun its counteroffensive after weeks of teasing one, and after weeks of stalemate with little progress from either side. Ukraine said the counteroffensive had started in Kherson and some other southern areas.

CNN's report said Ukraine initially wanted to do a bigger operation, but later decided to focus on the Kherson region. The city of Kherson was the first major city that Russia took in its invasion.

The US also ran analytical exercises with Ukraine so Ukraine could see how big a troop commitment it would need depending the plan it chose, CNN reported.

The US Department of Defense did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.

Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, a Pentagon spokesperson, told CNN: "The United States has routine military-to-military dialogue at multiple levels with Ukraine. We will not comment on the specifics of those engagements."

"Generally speaking, we provide the Ukrainians with information to help them better understand the threats they face and defend their country against Russian aggression.

"Ultimately, the Ukrainians are making the final decisions for their operations."

The counteroffensive appears to have worked in Ukraine's favor so far.

The UK's Ministry of Defence said on Wednesday that Ukrainian forces had "pushed the front line back some distance in places, exploiting relatively thinly held Russian defenses."

Heavy fighting has been reported in Kherson since Monday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other officials have repeatedly vowed that Ukraine will take back all of its land from Russia, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.

But, Oleksiy Arestovych, a Zelenskyy advisor, said on Monday said the counteroffensive is unlikely to have quick results by design.

"This is a planned slow operation to grind the enemy, saving the lives of our military and civilians," he said.

The UK's defense ministry said Russia will likely respond to Ukraine by trying to plug the gaps in its defenses by bringing in mobile units.

 

 

[Kinophile]

Ref YPR in action, 

I surprised at the tightly Placed lines of men. Looks like they're about to rapidly advance. It also implies no fear of RUS drone observation and/or accurate/timely RUS arty strikes.  The tension is palpable, they're about to go into it. 

 

 

 

 

[Grigb]

43 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I surprised at the tightly Placed lines of men. Looks like they're about to rapidly advance.

They are about to cross the field (after the ridge) toward the settlement. The field is possibly littered with RU petal mines. So, APCs drive forward (behind tanks), detonate mines, drag away any wire obstacles and infantry run along the APC track to avoid mines.

[UPDATE] It is what UKR author of video said.

Edited September 2, 2022 by Grigb

[MikeyD]

Quote

I surprised at the tightly Placed lines of men.

This conflict has been the source of much surprise at how multiple supposed CM2 'AI errors' resemble actual behavior on the battlefield. I don't think anyone's going to be complaining about CM modern war casualty rates anymore.

[Grigb]

Today number of British officers killed raised to 8. But there will be no bodies because they were all killed by Ru arty Nikopol (UKR side).

Also, just in case - there is picture circulating on twitter from RU MOD brief showing 44 HIMARS destroyed. In this case it is the number of missiles RU claimed intercepted, not the actual launchers.

Edited September 2, 2022 by Grigb

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Today number of British officers killed raised to 8. But there will be no bodies because they were all killed by Ru arty Nikopol (UKR side).

Also, just in case - there is picture circulating on twitter from RU MOD brief showing 44 HIMARS destroyed. In this case it is the number of missiles RU claimed intercepted, not the actual launchers.

This is what I love about Russian propaganda... all the wonderful questions raised that they don't answer.  Even if Russians really did intercept 44 HIMARS missiles (I'd guess the real number is ZERO), then why no functional bridges over Kherson?  A pretty obvious question to ask, but I don't think Russians have inquiring minds.

Steve

[Taranis]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, both are there and at least their last suspected locations were in the north.  We seem to have confirmation that the 5th Tank Brigade was in action on the first day.  This in the form of pictures of Dutch YPR tracked APC apparently in combat.  5th Tank Brigade is thought to be equipped with the bulk of the Western supplied fighting vehicles.

Steve

Yes, and there was also a notion of T-72M1 (from Poland, Bulgaria, CZ etc) which the 5th Tank Brigade also uses according to my notes.

[Grigb]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is what I love about Russian propaganda... all the wonderful questions raised that they don't answer.  Even if Russians really did intercept 44 HIMARS missiles (I'd guess the real number is ZERO), then why no functional bridges over Kherson?  A pretty obvious question to ask, but I don't think Russians have inquiring minds.

Steve

They memory holed Kherson but Station assault got them worried because so far, no video of any bodies - it supposed to be around 60 on the shore with few hundreds in the river. It is bit too much even for RU public to believe. 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Grigb said:

They memory holed Kherson but Station assault got them worried because so far, no video of any bodies - it supposed to be around 60 on the shore with few hundreds in the river. It is bit too much even for RU public to believe. 

I still have no idea why that was cooked up.  I don't mean why it was so stupid, because that's fairly normal, but why they did it at all.  If they intended it to disrupt the IAEA visit then official Russian channels should have been promoting it hard.  As I said earlier, not a peep about it over here even to discredit it.  Talk about a flop.

BTW, as an American I am insulted about the RU Nat's obsession with the UK military.  My tax Dollars have been training Ukrainians for two decades and what thanks do they give me?  And don't even get me started on how much money we sent in aid.  Plus, have they forgot that one American woman, Nuland, single handedly overthrew Yanukovych and appointed all Ukrainian governments since then?

It's a sad state of affairs when the UK gets more blame than the US does.

Hurumph.

Steve

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thoughts?

Steve

ISW has reported on Putin giving a extended deadline for the conquest of the Donbas, and that the deployment of the 3rd Army Corps is in support of that.

I recall at one point during the Soviet offensive to relieve Stalingrad and encircle the Sixth Army that a real calculation the German command had to do was if the 6th Army was able to breakout, that the arrayed Soviet units against it would then have the freedom to redeploy and push forward to join the pincers and then seek to launch more offensives without heavy attrition to them.

That Putin seems intent on pursuing the seizure of the Donbas and no withdrawal from Kherson, I wonder if he's betting (or being misled) on letting Ukraine target Kherson and while the Ukrainians are busy there, launching the "final" pushes for the restoration of the de jure borders of the separatist republics.

While yes losing Kherson is gonna look horrid, at this point Putin needs to pull out some sort of win and maybe they hold out long enough?

Depending on what info reaches him, I do wonder about what his expectation for Eastern Ukraine is. Maybe he loses Kherson but can push to seize Zaporizhia oblast and do at least a border on the Dnipro with the 3rd Army Corps. Silly and probably not a goal anymore but more foolish things have occurred so far in this war.

[Grigb]

Update from Girkin

Battle for Pisky is finally over

Quote

Yesterday, after prolonged heavy fighting, the 11th regiment of the DPR Armed Forces took the industrial zone [Seeds station] on the western outskirts of the Pisky, seized the ruins of the auto bridge [Bridge Republic] and occupied the line along the Donetsk ring road. The AFU units retreated into the depths of the Pervomayske settlement (bordering with the Pisky industrial zone) [it is eastern part of Pervvomaiske detached from actual Pervvomaiske].
All day yesterday, the enemy's forward positions and rear areas in the Donetsk region were subjected to almost continuous artillery strikes. The AFU artillery responded weakly.

Somewhat dated map for reference

 

Kherson

Quote

On the Kherson front, fierce fighting has been going on for several days between Davydiv Brid and Vysokopillia. According to some reports, a few days ago the enemy managed to create another bridgehead on the eastern shore of Ingulets, capturing the village of Arkhangelsk and now stubbornly defending it. I am waiting for clarifications.

A bit confusing description. Arkhangelske village is not exactly between Davydiv Brid and  Vysokopillia. It is much closer to Vysokopillia and part of Vysokopillia (East) battle.

Initial reports were that UKR pushed overland from Ivanivka. However, it is possible that UKR made another crossing bypassing existing RU defenses and looks like kicking them initially from the village (RU claim they counter-attacked yesterday and push UKR somewhat back).

Kharkiv 

Quote

I don't have any data on the unfolding battles in the Kharkov area yet. It is known that both sides have brought fresh forces to the area. Probably - we are talking about an attempt of the AFU offensive, striving to achieve at least some success at least somewhere. On this front, both sides are delivering powerful artillery and missile strikes.

It looks like there is Schrödinger offensive at Kharkiv - RU defending with artily against UKR offensive that is happening for several days. I suspect UKR are making disinformation operation there to pin RU forces.

[Huba]

10 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

And  another problem on XXI century high-tech battlefield...can soldiers actually surrender to a drone?

This issue was already resolved in XX century, and the answer is: yes! 

https://www.wearethemighty.com/featured/humans-surrendered-to-a-robot-for-the-first-time-in-1991/

[Grigb]

31 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I still have no idea why that was cooked up.  I don't mean why it was so stupid, because that's fairly normal, but why they did it at all.  If they intended it to disrupt the IAEA visit then official Russian channels should have been promoting it hard.  As I said earlier, not a peep about it over here even to discredit it.  Talk about a flop.

I am also struggling to understand it. However, watching it unfolding among RU Nats posts I noticed that:

1. They en mass switched to it memory-holing Kherson info
2. The stream of info from Kherson quickly dried up

It was like watching magician show. Female assistant flashed fake boobs. Audience attention focused on her, and the magician quietly pulled Kherson cart completely out of the scene.  

So, my working theory is that they decided to info seal Kherson completely. But they need to distract RU public from discovering it (it is admitting defeat at Kherson right away) they decided to generate fake glorious victory. Just rushed the first idea they got using IAEA visit as kind of spice to make it more thrilling.

 

31 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

BTW, as an American I am insulted about the RU Nat's obsession with the UK military.  My tax Dollars have been training Ukrainians for two decades and what thanks do they give me?  And don't even get me started on how much money we sent in aid.  Plus, have they forgot that one American woman, Nuland, single handedly overthrew Yanukovych and appointed all Ukrainian governments since then?

It's a sad state of affairs when the UK gets more blame than the US does.

Hurumph.

Steve

I suspect that it is RU prop incompetence fault. They put so much effort into portraying US as dying weakling that they walked right into propaganda dead end. I mean you cannot start telling people US is the super villain Rambo right after you told them US is dying weakling. 

So, for new season they decided to use somebody else. A gentleman super villain who unlike US Rambo relies more on cunning schemes than on brutal force. 

[Grigb]

New RU Kherson narrative - Glorius RU defenders gloriously defend against overwhelming UKR forces.