How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Holien]

A bit of people power confronting Russians abroad. 

 

 

 

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Is the supply situation truly that stupid for Russia? They are reduced to ferries. Ferries that look quite sinkable. Not a bridge remains for vehicle movement. To supply 10k-20k personnel. How long before their tanks and IFVs become pillboxes? How long before their fuel runs out, or maybe helicopter airlift can save the day? Staging areas….that airport has been hit so many times. Artillery, their long range pieces I’m assuming need not be on the North bank to target the frontlines? Reports do indicate plentiful stockpiles of lower level ammo exist. 

Putin must be desperate to hold Kherson. Or the General Staff have the collective intelligence of a snail. No other explanation. It makes sense Putin has to step over the Defense Ministry to direct the generals personally, he’s giving out suicidal orders. 

No wonder the deputy head of Kherson is in Russia, collaborators are dropping like flies. Podolyak, who led the peace talks with Russia if one recalls, sent out a taunting tweet about negotiations for the withdrawal of Russians from the North bank of Kherson, I dismissed it as just nothing but…

That’s their only option, isn’t it? A “goodwill gesture”? That or slowly withdraw with a rearguard and hopefully get the bulk of personnel and strategic weapon systems out from the north bank. But how likely can that occur without causing full scale collapse?

Am I missing something? Surely I must be. The alternative is likely Kiev 2.0, except with way more POWs likely. 

And remember 155 outranges 152, So once the Russian guns on the west side are silenced, due to ammo or destruction, the AFU will be able to set up and engage anything else left on the west side with very little counter-battery fire. 

[Huba]

Reznikov is now a NAFO fella:

 

[Grigb]

Regarding Inhulets Bridgehead there is no map for now because there is no new credible info. There is not much to add to the map I did except to repeat that most likely UKR plan was to enlarge Bridgehead not the breakthrough. 

Vysokopillya is interesting because there is even less info about it. Which is good, very good. Made a scheme of what I think happened. 

• From RU we know that path of reatreat of RU troops in Olhyne and Vysokopillya under UKR fire and RU cannot reatreat
• From UKR GS we know they control Potomkyne. That's one side UKR fire from
• There is no settlement to the left of Olhyne. So, UKR most probably broke in to Olhyne itself. (Direction is my opinion)
• RU is shelling them, but it seems they have problem assaulting UKR positions. At least we know attack on Potomkyne so far failed

General comments

• very few posts with relevant info. Well, we can say almost no posts. It like they do not want to discuss it or RU command tightened the grip on information. Or both.
• They are moving on to next topic. For now, it is Moscow attitude toward Z-nazi (See Khodakovsky post as example)
• The overall attitude: It is finished. We won. It was a total disaster for UKR but let's talk about something else.

[Taranis]

 

[Grigb]

And new useful bits

1. RU propaganda mentioned that in Odessa UKR command frantically moves all units (that were supposed to defend Odessa against RU landing) toward Mykolaev due blablabla catastrophic losses blablabla nobody to defend Mykolaev blablabla. If it is true It looks like UKR command opinion about the yesterday and current battles is very positive. They are preparing reserves for a bigger party.

2. Partisan plot continues to thicken. Now they are Kherson locals who has no relation to UKR army or security services but who resisted RU security services assault on their village house. They had various small arms and US grenade launcher (M72) and UK uniforms (surplus Royal Commandos uniform). One body is shown. The problem is only pistols and scorpions are shown. These are not the weapons used in that fire fight. They look like old stash used by FSB to plant it on somebody. 

So, Partisans or left behind operatives hit RU patrol hard. To save face RU assaulted a house of a local guy. He was denazified and shown as an attacker with few planted weapons nearby (uniform most likely was his own hunting clothes). 

 

[akd]

This is interesting because apparently the Russian soldiers on the ground in the Kherson bridgehead think the Antonovsky bridge is in worse shape than it actually is:

 

[Mattias]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 What got him power was the industrialists (oligarchs by another name) and the military, as well as nationalists within the political and social elite.  Some were believers in what the Nazis stood for, some were taken in by Hitler's personality, but all were united by their desire to see Germany become a world power again.
 

My reflection here does not really effect your line of argument but I think it could be important to highlight, as this very moment in time and space is one which we constantly return to.

I would argue that the capitalists and right-wing politicians did not support Hitler because the wanted something, as much as they feared loosing something. At the time there was a strongly felt fear of a leftist, russian style, revolution and since the right did not want to cooperate with even liberal/moderat left-wing political forces, the Nazis provided an alternative with the muscle mass able to oppose “the proletariat”. The fact that the nazis themselves had stoked much of the social tension they were now asked to quench, is just par of the course for fascist development. 
 

Robert O. Paxton does a great jobb illuminating these processes in his book the Anatomy of Fascism. A text that is painfully relevant in todays political climate.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

But if we do not react to the public contempt with which people who stand on the side of their country are showered, if we do not erase from the public plane any negative manifestations about Russia's actions in the current situation - as a society and as a country we will not survive.

Khodakovsky quote above.

This is a great little window into the mind of an autocrat.  To him, society and nation can only exist if nobody is allowed to express themselves honestly in public.  Democratic countries see it exactly in reverse.

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, Mattias said:

My reflection here does not really effect your line of argument but I think it could be important to highlight, as this very moment in time and space is one which we constantly return to.

I would argue that the capitalists and right-wing politicians did not support Hitler because the wanted something, as much as they feared loosing something. At the time there was a strongly felt fear of a leftist, russian style, revolution and since the right did not want to cooperate with even liberal/moderat left-wing political forces, the Nazis provided an alternative with the muscle mass able to oppose “the proletariat”. The fact that the nazis themselves had stoked much of the social tension they were now asked to quench, is just par of the course for fascist development. 
 

Robert O. Paxton does a great jobb illuminating these processes in his book the Anatomy of Fascism. A text that is painfully relevant in todays political climate.

Very good point.  The fight against Bolshevism/Communism in Germany was real, but played up by the various right wing groups for their own purposes.  The Reichtag fire being the most consequential event in that propaganda war.

This actually reinforces my primary point which is that in the German example we had a bunch of different groups side with the NSDP for various reasons.  Many of the powerful loathed Hitler personally, especially those who were hyper class conscious (i.e. Hitler is a working class nobody).  von Hindenberg being one of those.  However, they threw their lot in with the Nazis because they thought they'd get what they wanted out of the deal.  They were wrong, of course, but that hardly matters.

Steve

[Grigb]

New very interesting post from Mashkovets

Quote

At least 4 BTGRS from the 3rd AK are already in the Rostov region. 1 is unloaded and concentrated on the Kuzminsky training center, 2 more are moving through the Shakhti towards the Crimean Bridge. Since yesterday, the command of the enemy troops began to "close the Crimean Bridge for the night" towards Simferopol (as I understand it, starting from last night, the transfer of forward units of the 3rd AK to the territory of the peninsula of Crimea began). Very revealing...

Good afternoon!!!

1. I have no doubt that the command of the enemy troops had understanding about the beginning of the AFU offensive on the Kherson-Berislavsky bridgehead in the near future. At least, the discovery yesterday of a fresh motorized infantry BTGr (up to 28 BBM and 10 tanks), probably from the 69th obrP of the 35th CAA (which the enemy pulled over the pontoon crossing at Lviv village on Monday night) on the bridgehead, in the area of Novoaleksandrovka [big marker on the map], says exactly that...

As well as the discovery on the march on the T-2207 road [big marker on the map] of another BTGr of this army (probably from the 38th msbr) in the direction to the north exactly one day before the beginning of the active phase of the AFU offensive. Or the participation of at least 2 "fresh" BTGrs from the 127th MSD of the 5th CAA in tactical enemy attacks north and west of Kherson, last week.

However, the enemy still failed to establish exactly where, when and by what forces all this will happen... Of the three real areas (directions), he managed to "guess" only one... Of course, where they are located and what they are called, as well as the real course of events there, for obvious reasons, I will not write...

2. Now in the headquarters and at the enemy's KP [CP] there is fussy thinking and attempts to analyze what is happening... His command has to solve a difficult dilemma... what was it - either "the beginning of something serious", or "demonstratively distracting actions" before some even bigger "booty"...

[there are] Data for both the first and the second version -and a lot [for both]... For example, judging by the density and intensity of the fire hits carried out by the AFU with its long-range and high-precision weapons against objects and targets in the South group's area of responsibility, the first "version" is correct. But in the same way, the AFU is hitting [targets] in the [wide] line from the Zaporozhye grouping... [through] Melitopol, Tokmak, and in the tactical rear of this group, everything "explodes and burns" in the same way...

In this sense, the command of the enemy troops has no room for a mistake. Because this delusion will cost him very dearly. The use of accumulated (with big problems) reserves and resources at the wrong place and at the wrong time [but not] when it is needed, is almost guaranteed to mean total ****ed up for Russian troops in the South of Ukraine...

Judging by the reaction of the command of the enemy troops, it has not yet reached any specific conclusion on this matter...

At least, information about the use of forces and means of the 5th, 35th ZVA (and of the entire Eastern Military District), as well as operational information about the process of operational deployment of units and formations of the 3rd AK indicates that there is "consensus" regarding the reaction of the Russian command to the actions of the AFU - not formed yet...

 

[Haiduk]

About 3rd Corps. Today loacals wrote about "endless stream of Russian vehicles, driving through Torez to Donetsk - about 150 of tanks and light armor, about 150 of artillery, MLRS and trucks with ammunition and about 300 other supply trucks and special vehicles"

Likely part of this column uploaded Russians themselve. The sign of 3rd Corps presumably on vehciles

 

[Grigb]

And next Mashkovets post. it is less informative but still interesting. 

Quote

3. In this sense, in my opinion, UP-to-date information about the movement and location of enemy forces and assets on the territory of the Crimea peninsula and adjacent territories of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions will be timely and necessary for the Ukrainian command...

Two days ago, up to 32 covered wagons with ammo passed through the Dzhankoy railway station to the north. According to certain data, this was the first batch of the "force majeure state of emergency ammunition" of the Southern Military District. It is obvious that the command of the enemy troops, even despite the high probability of fire damage to communications and logistics centers (in the tactical and partially operational-tactical rear of their troops at Mykolaiv, Krivoy Rog and Zaporozhye directions) did not withut reason significantly increased the stocks of ammo, as well as size of the current deliveries in the current (far from rosy and favorable) conditions...

The Russian command clearly assumes that in the near future its units and formations in this operational area will need to significantly increase the daily consumption rates of the ammo.

4. In the context of all the above, attention should also be paid to the fact that the main forces of the 5th CAA of the Eastern Military District, as well as the 106th PDD (airborne division) and a number of units and formations of the 35th CAA, are not in a hurry at all to [reach] the Kherson bridgehead, even when the so-called "Ukrainian offensive" began; continuing his siesta on the left bank of the Dnieper.

This can happen for two main reasons, given their location and the positions they occupy.

- the command of the enemy forces seeks to form a sufficiently powerful barrier from the "covering forces" on the left bank of the Dnieper, if "everything falls down under Kherson ..." (it looks unlikely)...

- or, the enemy command is "absolutely not confident" that these forces and weapons should be put into battle precisely in the Mykolaiv or Krivoy Rog directions, thinking that forces and means that are already deployed on the bridgehead are quite enough to fend off any Ukrainian offensive...

Both the first and second reasons... they do not mean at all that in the end the enemy will not use them in the above directions. The development of events and the actions of the Ukrainian command, which obviously began the battle for the initiative... in the strategic sense of this war... it is quite possible that they will force the Russian command to act this way, and not otherwise...

And in this sense, I will emphasize once again... here IT is VERY IMPORTANT to track where, in what quantity and in what composition the enemy's reserves will be concentrated and deployed, as they are still "in motion" (3rd AK), or which are already concentrated and deployed (as the 5th CAA)...

So, in our group (IS) there is information that the forward units of the 3rd AK (at least 1 BTGr) are already on the territory of the Crimea, it still requires verification, because it is quite contradictory.

There is also information about what is most likely... in the near future, due to the "dragging" to the bridgehead at least 2 more BTGr from the troops concentrated on the left bank of the Dnieper (I think from the 35th CAA), the enemy will try to counterattack our forward units in the Kherson direction, to "cut" the results of the actions of the AFU, [that happened] from the morning of Monday... at least at night, the enemy tried to actively maneuver in the positional areas [sic] with his artillery, and on a fairly significant scale (although this is quite possible), it may be caused by the desire to simply "withdraw the bulk of his artillery from the Western howitzers and MLRS").

However, it is quite obvious that the enemy "instinctively" reacts to the active actions of the AFU on the Kherson bridgehead. Including, trying to increase the throughput properties of their crossings across the Dnieper (for example, it is noted, starting from August 28, attempts by the enemy command to begin construction of another crossing next to the broken Antonovsky railway bridge).

 

[Grigb]

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

About 3rd Corps. Today loacals wrote about "endless stream of Russian vehicles, driving through Torez to Donetsk - about 150 of tanks and light armor, about 150 of artillery, MLRS and trucks with ammunition and about 300 other supply trucks and special vehicles"

Likely part of this column uploaded Russians themselve. The sign of 3rd Corps presumably on vehicles

 

What is interesting though Mashkovets claims BTGrs are in Rostov region moving to Crimea and some are possibly in Crimea already.

[UPDATE] wrong date on Torez tweet - it should be 29 AFAIR

Edited August 30, 2022 by Grigb

[Battlefront.com]

I'm not getting why Russia is putting it's reserves so far behind the line in Crimea, if they are in fact doing that.  Crimea is under no immediate threat.

It is impossible to think of how Ukraine can get over the Dnepr any time soon.  First, it would have to eliminate the entire Russia pocket on its side of the river then it would have to conduct a very difficult contested crossing (I presume the bridges will not survive to that point).  And from the Zaporizhzhia direction there is no immediate signs of Ukrainian offensive activity, and even if it did spark up suddenly they are probably weeks if not months away from getting down to Crimea.  On the contrary, deploying reserves to either Kherson or Zaporizhzhia could theoretically preclude Ukraine getting close to Crimea by defeating the attacks where they start.

Puzzling.

Steve

[Haiduk]

So, after yesterday flood of news from Kherson offensive today we have full quiet, likely after yesterday statement of General Staff and President's Administration - "To all. Shut up. Please"

I collected some videos:

More interesting is this - soldier tells about yestersay assault:

Translation:

...Well, friends, we made an assault. I lay in blidage now. The assault was in "Rzhev offensive operation style". Well, I will not say about this like that... But... In short - we have been moved with tanks across the field in battle lines, amicably attacked their positions... I was a little shell-shocked - some f...g s..t flew down, dropped from the drone. Although from beginning of attack we were in the middle of field and about half of hour passed - through this half of hour they already had a drone, loaded with ammunition. It dropped three or four charges. The first impacted in three meters from me, the second in about five meters - miraculously it didn't hurt, but shell-shocked. Fighters were fu...g amazed that I intact. Then a tank shelled us, artyllery, mortar shells... Well, this was tough... But our guys also kicked their ass good. This is bad, we hadn't good liason [either EW interference, or poorly organized interaction between units, I think]. Because of that wasn't proper coordination. This is, at whole, a single crucial problem. And the second problem - we had to assault enemy positions, moving through mined field, like in "Shtrafbat" movie [popular 10 years ago Russian series "Shtrafbat  - eng."Penal battalion", where soldiers were deliberately sent in attack on minefield]. But never mind... We need to liberate Ukraine in different ways. All will be good, we will win. Glory to Ukraine!

Edited August 30, 2022 by Haiduk

[Taranis]

"The Russian supplier Gazprom will “completely” suspend its gas deliveries to the Engie group (French gas distributor) from Thursday"
The Russian giant Gazprom announced on Tuesday on Telegram that it would completely suspend its gas deliveries to the French group Engie from Thursday, “until the receipt in full of the financial sums due for the deliveries”.


"After denouncing the offensive in Ukraine, a Russian soldier requests asylum in France
He broke the law of silence and fled Russia: Pavel Filatiev, a soldier who fought for two months in Ukraine before denouncing the Kremlin offensive in a long story published on the Internet, requests political asylum in France . The 34-year-old soldier arrived in Roissy on Sunday via Tunisia and met with agents from the French Office for the Protection of Refugees and Stateless Persons (Ofpra) on Monday.

The reason ? At the beginning of August, the paratrooper, who last year re-enlisted in the 56th regiment of airborne troops based in Crimea after leaving the ranks of the army for some time, published on the social network VKontakte an account of 141 pages denouncing the state of Russian troops and the war in Ukraine.

"When I learned that the command was asking for me to be sentenced to fifteen years in prison for false information [against the Russian army], I understood that I would not achieve anything here and that my lawyers could do nothing for me in Russia, ”says Pavel Filatiev to Agence France-Presse (AFP), who met him in the waiting area for asylum seekers in Roissy on Monday.

His text, entitled “ZOV” – which means “call” in Russian and at the same time recalls the letters painted on Russian armored vehicles in Ukraine – criticizes the offensive launched on February 24.

"We did not have the moral right to attack another country, which is more the people who are closest to us", writes in this account the soldier, himself the son of a soldier who had served in the 56th regiment.

If he obtains refugee status, he says he wants to act "to make sure that this war ends". "I want as few young Russian men as possible to go there and get mixed up in this, to know what's going on there.""

"The Russian soldier who requests political asylum in France is authorized to enter French territory"
Pavel Filatiev, a soldier who fought for two months in Ukraine before denouncing the Kremlin offensive in a long account published on the Internet, is requesting political asylum in France. The 34-year-old soldier arrived in Roissy via Tunisia on Sunday and met with agents from the French Office for the Protection of Refugees and Stateless Persons (Ofpra) on Monday.

"Pavel Filatiev was released [Tuesday] at the end of the afternoon" and authorized to enter French territory, his lawyer, Kamalia Mehtiyeva, told Agence France-Presse, specifying that he had eight days to submit their asylum application. "We are delighted with this decision and will submit the request for political asylum in the following days," she added.

"Twenty-four years in prison required against a journalist specializing in the army"
The Russian prosecutor's office on Tuesday demanded twenty-four years' imprisonment against journalist Ivan Safronov, a specialist in military matters, accused of high treason and imprisoned since 2020.

His trial takes place as the Kremlin multiplies calls to support the armed forces fighting in Ukraine. In recent months, hundreds of Russians have been prosecuted for criticizing the offensive and accused of "discrediting" the troops.

A recognized expert in defense issues, Mr. Safronov, 32, was arrested in July 2020, in the context of growing repression of the independent press, which has further accelerated since the attack on Ukraine by Russia. The requisitions, announced on Tuesday, are nevertheless particularly severe, even for this kind of trial.

"The representative of the public prosecutor's office asked to find Safronov guilty of high treason and to impose a twenty-four-year sentence on him in a penal colony under a harsh regime," the Moscow City Court was quoted by the agency as saying. press releases.

Since April, Ivan Safronov has been tried behind closed doors because it is a trial for espionage and treason. The verdict is expected on September 5. According to the court, the statement of the judgment will be open to the press.

Source : Le Monde

Edited August 30, 2022 by Taranis

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting stuff Taranis!  I'm not surprised that Filatiev felt the need to leave Russia, but am surprised he left for the protection of a NATO country in such a high profile way.

Steve

[Haiduk]

L119 howitzer commander of air-assault troops, participating in offensive

And his imaginations:

An offensive theese are shellings, losses and shock. In order not to show you completely burned Humvee. in which ammunitin had been detonated, killing and injuring my congeners, here is a photo of my trench, where I hide from such destiny

Edited August 30, 2022 by Haiduk

[Grigb]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm not getting why Russia is putting it's reserves so far behind the line in Crimea, if they are in fact doing that.  Crimea is under no immediate threat.

It is impossible to think of how Ukraine can get over the Dnepr any time soon.  First, it would have to eliminate the entire Russia pocket on its side of the river then it would have to conduct a very difficult contested crossing (I presume the bridges will not survive to that point).  And from the Zaporizhzhia direction there is no immediate signs of Ukrainian offensive activity, and even if it did spark up suddenly they are probably weeks if not months away from getting down to Crimea.  On the contrary, deploying reserves to either Kherson or Zaporizhzhia could theoretically preclude Ukraine getting close to Crimea by defeating the attacks where they start.

Puzzling.

Steve

Maybe they are moving through Crimea toward mainland of UKR? There they can either move toward Kherson or toward Zaporozhye. Maybe they are making detour because they are afraid of HIMARS. However, who is moving through Torez to Donets in vehicles with the same marking? 

[Haiduk]

UKR troops somewhere in Kherson oblast

 

[Cederic]

7 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Podolyak, who led the peace talks with Russia if one recalls, sent out a taunting tweet about negotiations for the withdrawal of Russians from the North bank of Kherson, I dismissed it as just nothing but…

It feels that would be a strategic mistake. Right now they can demonstrably reduce the Russian front line presence by 20,000 of its experienced troops; letting them withdraw allows redeployment to other battles.

Some may need to be killed but I suspect most can be captured. Paying to guard, house and feed them through the winter feels cheaper than having to fight them in Donetsk.

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Cederic said:

It feels that would be a strategic mistake. Right now they can demonstrably reduce the Russian front line presence by 20,000 of its experienced troops; letting them withdraw allows redeployment to other battles.

Some may need to be killed but I suspect most can be captured. Paying to guard, house and feed them through the winter feels cheaper than having to fight them in Donetsk.

What would be interesting is if Russia responds.  I wouldn't let them just walk away either, but it would be a serious political coup if the Putin's cronies did reply- a sign of weakness.  Ukraine could then say, sure they can leave but they cannot take any weapons including small arms with them.  And they have to hand over all info on where they placed minefields etc.  Of course Russia would never agree to that.

[Haiduk]

Antonivskyi bridge area

Despite multiple hits, Russians on own risk continuing to use the bridge for trucks movement. Reportedly one truck drives through the bridge for 20 minutes with slow speed, maneuvering between holes

 

Edited August 30, 2022 by Haiduk

[kraze]

22 minutes ago, Taranis said:

"After denouncing the offensive in Ukraine, a Russian soldier requests asylum in France
He broke the law of silence and fled Russia: Pavel Filatiev, a soldier who fought for two months in Ukraine before denouncing the Kremlin offensive in a long story published on the Internet, requests political asylum in France . The 34-year-old soldier arrived in Roissy on Sunday via Tunisia and met with agents from the French Office for the Protection of Refugees and Stateless Persons (Ofpra) on Monday.

So how many women did this brave man, a future "native French citizen" rape and how many men he killed during these two months, during which he was perfectly OK with doing warcrimes?