How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

I suspected it wasn't a new-new weapon (ie unseen yet in-theatre) as such, more a NATO weapon used in a new-ish way. Starting to look possible. 

[Seedorf81]

In my experience big booms are not unlikely to turn into even much bigger booms.

I am totally amazed that bystanders keep filming those explosions at distances where I would be running my ass off to get away.

 

 

[DesertFox]

Dzankhoy...

 

Little map for better orientation:

Edited August 16, 2022 by DesertFox

[Letter from Prague]

If this really is mortar crew running around behind the lines I'm going drink myself unconscious.

Edited August 16, 2022 by Letter from Prague

[Battlefront.com]

Oh, this was a good way to start my day

Look at the results of the confirmed (by Ukraine) special ops attack on Dzankhoy.  The ammunition is cooking off over time vs. the all at once (or nearly so) hits at the Saky airbase.  If I had only seen the video from Dzankhoy I would have suspected an SOF attack.  ATACMS might have produced the cooking off, but it's outside of ATACMS range (i.e. even if the US sent some over it wouldn't be them) and it's not the sort of huge all-at-once explosion I would have expected from Hrim-2.

What I'm saying here is that the visual information we have for the two attacks does seem to indicate that the first one was Hrim-2 (or something near the same), likely with a SOF component, and the second attack SOF only.

That said, I disagree that it's unrealistic to think Ukraine could have mounted two sophisticated SOF ops this close to each other.  The facilities attacked were not likely to be any more or less difficult to attack today as they were last month or the month before that.  This is quite different than a time sensitive SOF operation such as going after an individual (like Bin Laden), a moving target (like Muskova), or a target of opportunity (oh, say Wagner HQ being ID'd, but outside of artillery range).  Therefore, Ukraine would have been planned well ahead of time and could have been synched to be done fairly close to each other for maximum psychological damage.

All fascinating stuff.

Steve

[Billy Ringo]

33 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

If this really is mortar crew running around behind the lines I'm going drink myself unconscious.

Can only imagine how much the Russians are drinking to box this one out of their heads....

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Huba said:

don't feel like really taking a guess here, but maybe Grigb or Steve or Beleg would care to share your thoughts about such a contingency? 

What's going on here is that the Russian military logistics leadership is apparently working for Ukraine.  I mean, c'mon... who could be this incompetent?  Gotta be traitors as it is the only explanation

Seriously, learning from a mistake is only half of the equation.  In order for lessons to be implemented there first must be the ability to translate a plan into corrective action.  If I had my way I'd take every single Russia "expert" that said we should all be afraid of Russia's future actions because of their history of learning from their mistakes and make them write "Will without a Way does not equal Success" about 1000 times on a chalkboard.

The Russian logistics mess is hobbling its ability to wage war more than any other factor (and there are plenty of other factors).  This is not something that can be fixed with minor adjustments.  They need a completely new system that breaks with 200 years or so of tradition.  And this in turn requires new equipment they don't have.  I'm not even talking about complicated things, I'm talking about basics; forklifts, frontend loaders, computers, software, trained personnel, procedures, accountability, etc.  It's like taking a 1800s general store and trying to turn it into Walmart. 

Compare and contrast...

This is how the US (and other Western countries) does logistics:

This is how Russia does it:

 

And how storage looks in the field,.  See if you can guess which is which:

 

Also note that the US image was from a frontline area, the Russian image is from peacetime.

Here's another example of why Russia can't suddenly get to US/NATO standards in terms of logistics... shipping containers! 

Shipping containers require a lot of specialized equipment and transportation infrastructure that Russia simply doesn't have.  And why doesn't Russia have it?  Because it is f'n expensive to acquire and maintain.  It's a long term investment and that's something else Russia sucks at (besides war, I mean). 

Now, one might be wondering if Ukraine is any better than Russia.  Probably, but I suspect far below NATO standards.  However, Ukraine has much shorter supply lines and they are all in solidly friendly territory.  This minimizes some of the major problems that go along with poor logistics.

The other thing is that Russia's only successful military strategy requires massive amounts of ammo, which in turn requires a supply system that's capable of keeping up with demand.  The relatively static lines have helped Russia overcome some of those challenges, however it required making huge dumps close to the front.  Now that Ukraine is showing this to be a bad idea, Russia's really in a bind.  They can not keep their current artillery centric strategy going without the dumps, yet if it keeps the dumps it will eventually lose them.  Ukraine does not have this sort of problem in reverse.

Steve

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

What's going on here is that the Russian military logistics leadership is apparently working for Ukraine.  I mean, c'mon... who could be this incompetent?  Gotta be traitors as it is the only explanation

Seriously, learning from a mistake is only half of the equation.  In order for lessons to be implemented there first must be the ability to translate a plan into corrective action.  If I had my way I'd take every single Russia "expert" that said we should all be afraid of Russia's future actions because of their history of learning from their mistakes and make them write "Will without a Way does not equal Success" about 1000 times on a chalkboard.

The Russian logistics mess is hobbling its ability to wage war more than any other factor (and there are plenty of other factors).  This is not something that can be fixed with minor adjustments.  They need a completely new system that breaks with 200 years or so of tradition.  And this in turn requires new equipment they don't have.  I'm not even talking about complicated things, I'm talking about basics; forklifts, frontend loaders, computers, software, trained personnel, procedures, accountability, etc.  It's like taking a 1800s general store and trying to turn it into Walmart. 

Compare and contrast...

This is how the US (and other Western countries) does logistics:

This is how Russia does it:

 

And how storage looks in the field,.  See if you can guess which is which:

 

Also note that the US image was from a frontline area, the Russian image is from peacetime.

Here's another example of why Russia can't suddenly get to US/NATO standards in terms of logistics... shipping containers! 

Shipping containers require a lot of specialized equipment and transportation infrastructure that Russia simply doesn't have.  And why doesn't Russia have it?  Because it is f'n expensive to acquire and maintain.  It's a long term investment and that's something else Russia sucks at (besides war, I mean). 

Now, one might be wondering if Ukraine is any better than Russia.  Probably, but I suspect far below NATO standards.  However, Ukraine has much shorter supply lines and they are all in solidly friendly territory.  This minimizes some of the major problems that go along with poor logistics.

The other thing is that Russia's only successful military strategy requires massive amounts of ammo, which in turn requires a supply system that's capable of keeping up with demand.  The relatively static lines have helped Russia overcome some of those challenges, however it required making huge dumps close to the front.  Now that Ukraine is showing this to be a bad idea, Russia's really in a bind.  They can not keep their current artillery centric strategy going without the dumps, yet if it keeps the dumps it will eventually lose them.  Ukraine does not have this sort of problem in reverse.

Steve

you left out one item - The nature of the Russian logistic system facilitates pilfering.  To seriously change it would mean challenging the hierarchy of corruption.  Anyone who messes with that is likely gonna meet an untimely end.

[Calamine Waffles]

 

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Now, one might be wondering if Ukraine is any better than Russia.  Probably, but I suspect far below NATO standards.  However, Ukraine has much shorter supply lines and they are all in solidly friendly territory.  This minimizes some of the major problems that go along with poor logistics.

The main thing about Ukraine is their logistics are very decentralised, which makes it exceptionally difficult for the Russians to target their supplies with the notoriously poor Russian ISR capabilities, as shown in Syria.

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, sburke said:

you left out one item - The nature of the Russian logistic system facilitates pilfering.  To seriously change it would mean challenging the hierarchy of corruption.  Anyone who messes with that is likely gonna meet an untimely end.

For sure.  A a successful logistics system requires an equivalently sophisticated inventory system  A sophisticated inventory system requires safeguards to ensure it is accurate.  If your goal is to have a successful supply system, you have to start with an inventory system that is as bulletproof from tampering and error.  Obviously this is not the sort of system the Russian military higher ups wanted.  And it shows

Steve

[OldSarge]

39 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

For sure.  A a successful logistics system requires an equivalently sophisticated inventory system  A sophisticated inventory system requires safeguards to ensure it is accurate.  If your goal is to have a successful supply system, you have to start with an inventory system that is as bulletproof from tampering and error.  Obviously this is not the sort of system the Russian military higher ups wanted.  And it shows

Steve

Accountability and traceability, like we see in full front to back supply chain systems, are the last things anyone wants in a corrupt system like RU appears to be fond of.  How else would they be able to fund their lavish lifestyles.

[DesertFox]

S-400 for the win...

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

I watched a bunch of videos of today's strike.  Seems to me that there was several fairly small, but visible from a distance, explosions at the site.  One of which was located some distance away ("left" in the videos I saw).  These explosions got people's attention and they started filming the area.  Then there was a MASSIVE explosion at the central location that resulted in a huge fireball, far bigger than anything at the airbase.  This quieted down and several fires raged at the central and "left" locations.  Artillery ammo can be seen cooking off and flying all over the place.

It would seem that the huge explosion was caused by the initial set of fires where critical mass of heat built up and a large portion of the munitions went up at once.  However, unlike Saky there was still plenty of ammo cooking off even after the massive explosion.

Steve

[Billy Ringo]

FWIW, my line of work for the past 30+ years is wholesale and retail supply chain/inventory management. I've worked with Russian supply chain consultants and a couple of large Russian retailers.  The know how is there--I've seen them efficiently execute pretty advanced systems on the business side to get inventory to where it should be in the right quantities.

BUT, whether or not that expertise transfers to their military is an entirely different matter.

[Calamine Waffles]

It's all the work of Nazi card-carrying Ukrainian SOF that keep framed pictures of Stepan Bandera and books on Nazi German soldiers in their hideouts
 

 

Edited August 16, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Vergeltungswaffe]

24 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

S-400 for the win...

 

 

Gotta love inflatable AAD.

[Aragorn2002]

37 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

S-400 for the win...

 

 

Whahaha

[sburke]

47 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

It's all the work of Nazi card-carrying Ukrainian SOF that keep framed pictures of Stepan Bandera and books on Nazi German soldiers in their hideouts
 

 

good lord they are terrible at this.  At least make a minimal effort.  No special operation force is gonna sit around with all that material around much less in plain sight.  If you are gonna fake it at least make it somewhat believable - arms cache hidden below floorboards or in attics or sumfink. Communications gear etc.

[pavel.k]

3 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Little map for better orientation:

Thanks for the map. It looks like someone has a great road trip

And thanks for the great thread!

[sross112]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, this was a good way to start my day

Look at the results of the confirmed (by Ukraine) special ops attack on Dzankhoy.  The ammunition is cooking off over time vs. the all at once (or nearly so) hits at the Saky airbase.  If I had only seen the video from Dzankhoy I would have suspected an SOF attack.  ATACMS might have produced the cooking off, but it's outside of ATACMS range (i.e. even if the US sent some over it wouldn't be them) and it's not the sort of huge all-at-once explosion I would have expected from Hrim-2.

What I'm saying here is that the visual information we have for the two attacks does seem to indicate that the first one was Hrim-2 (or something near the same), likely with a SOF component, and the second attack SOF only.

That said, I disagree that it's unrealistic to think Ukraine could have mounted two sophisticated SOF ops this close to each other.  The facilities attacked were not likely to be any more or less difficult to attack today as they were last month or the month before that.  This is quite different than a time sensitive SOF operation such as going after an individual (like Bin Laden), a moving target (like Muskova), or a target of opportunity (oh, say Wagner HQ being ID'd, but outside of artillery range).  Therefore, Ukraine would have been planned well ahead of time and could have been synched to be done fairly close to each other for maximum psychological damage.

All fascinating stuff.

Steve

Back to the airfield. Didn't someone recently give a load of laser guided bombs to Ukraine? They degraded air defenses a day or so ahead of the airfield attack. If there was an open corridor could SOF had laser designators and a lone high altitude fighter bomber dropped bombs for them? That could explain the lack of hearing missile strikes or seeing them come in (missile is much bigger than a bomb). Also plays into the extreme range and pinpoint accuracy. Of course this assumes that the RA didn't have air defenses on or near the airfield, but with all the other oversight I wouldn't be surprised.

Not a big air guy so there are probably a lot of holes in this hypothesis but just thought I'd throw it out there as another option.

EDIT: Normally you'd think that Ukraine would put a press release out if it was an airstrike and then slap the RA around with some good memes, but if there is/was an SOF component on the ground they wouldn't want to compromise them. I think someone a few pages back advised that the UAF didn't have airframes that could use laser guided munitions on their own so they would have to have ground assets. This also plays into the west denying they made the weapons as I think they came from Turkey or somewhere in that area.

Edited August 16, 2022 by sross112

[mosuri]

11 hours ago, _Morpheus_ said:

Just WOW!
Guy is saying, that even Bus is shaking (~6km distance)

 

Is the sparky stuff with erratic (nonballistic) flight patterns Grad rockets or something else?

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Calamine Waffles said:

It's all the work of Nazi card-carrying Ukrainian SOF that keep framed pictures of Stepan Bandera and books on Nazi German soldiers in their hideouts
 

 

 

29 minutes ago, sburke said:

good lord they are terrible at this.  At least make a minimal effort.  No special operation force is gonna sit around with all that material around much less in plain sight.  If you are gonna fake it at least make it somewhat believable - arms cache hidden below floorboards or in attics or sumfink. Communications gear etc.

The important question we have to ask, were these Ukrainian SOF carrying a copy of The Sims 3 ?

Edited August 16, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Calamine Waffles said:

It's all the work of Nazi card-carrying Ukrainian SOF that keep framed pictures of Stepan Bandera and books on Nazi German soldiers in their hideouts
 

 

I like how all Nazi literature is written exclusively in russian. Only a true Ukrainian Nazi will read that.

[Maquisard manqué]

1 hour ago, Billy Ringo said:

FWIW, my line of work for the past 30+ years is wholesale and retail supply chain/inventory management. I've worked with Russian supply chain consultants and a couple of large Russian retailers.  The know how is there--I've seen them efficiently execute pretty advanced systems on the business side to get inventory to where it should be in the right quantities.

BUT, whether or not that expertise transfers to their military is an entirely different matter.

Good point. Russians can do logistics properly, it’s just whether the incentives are there for them to do so.

[kraze]

1 minute ago, Harmon Rabb said:

 

The important question we have to ask, where these Ukrainian SOF carrying a copy of the Sims 3 ?

You laugh now but Sims 3 is an officially Nazi approved concentration camp simulator. You put those little russian speaking people (what did you think that gibberish they speak was anyway, lol) into a house... and then you wall them in - without food or the toilet. And then you watch them suffer, as they die praying to St. Stalin, while their parents get a free russian car.