How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

I find it hard to believe Neptune (or other cruise missile) would not have been seen / filmed crossing crowded coast at noon in summer.

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Op, sorry misread his words. I think he said guys "from my squad" (?). Maybe shell shocked.

He also said "two strikes at 5 of morning". But this wasn't at the morning. Probably this video not from airfield (Trukha again...)  or he is really shell-shocked.

[Calamine Waffles]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Neptune was adopted Aug 23 2020. Before this already existed test battery set (based on KRAZ base, later Neptune has Tatra base). About dozen or more missiles were produced, partially launched during tests. Of course unknown, how much missiles or their kits were ready on Feb 24. 

Yeah, but the first training unit for Neptun was only formed in March 2021, and I don't know if it was fully in service by February 2022

https://web.archive.org/web/20210315185842/https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraines-navy-acquires-first-neptune-cruise-missiles.html

[MSBoxer]

I am waiting for Russia/Nats to claim that the missiles were launched from a grain ship to show the duplicity of Ukraine and their allies.

[MikeyD]

About Sapsan. The 'optical guidance matching image in memory' feature reminds me of Iran's Khallij Fars 'carrier killer' ballistic missile. 300km range, 650kg warhead and, reportedly, optical matching terminal guidance (keying on an aircraft carrier shape). China fields the much longer range Dong Feng operating on the same principle. If Ukraine managed to put a couple Sapsans together an airfield would be an ideal terrain feature to map to.

[Calamine Waffles]

This one, I don't think Neptun can do.
 

 

[Beleg85]

Ok, slightly offtopic, but this story of Putin ex-wife is really interesting to look at mechanisms of power in Russia. He may be mass murderer, but Vlad knows how to care for his family, I'll give him that.

https://twitter.com/pevchikh/status/1556630397408124929

 

Edited August 9, 2022 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

I mean sure, doing nothing is still strategic decision. What I mean is in system like Putin's (where everybody avoid resposibility as they can), surprising amount od signals from outside can simply be ignored like they did not exist or at least downgraded to point of irrelevance; at least for some time. Now they probably try to assess what the hell happened- I do not envy the messanger who bring news to Putin's long table.

Yes, but ignoring it is an active decision to do nothing to counter the threat.  That is a decision that is strategic in nature.

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

And we should be always cautious with giving Russian nationalists opinions too much of significance- as one of the few politically active parts of Russian society, they are accustomed to being slapped by Kremlin in the face and forced to sit by. They are ofc also profoundly penetrated by FSB and other services, as Grigb wrote. Hard to tell if Putin even care at all for their opinions- maybe only in broader sense of reactions of more conservative parts of Russian society.

Yes, except that FSB is one of the possible sources for regime change.  So having the FSB be fully invested into the Nat community isn't necessarily a good thing for Putin   Let's also not forget that Girkin is still FSB (once FSB, always FSB).

Their opinions matter because they hold sway over a certain chunk of the Kremlin decision makers.  As per previous discussions, not enough to likely successfully conduct a regime change on their own, but possibly enough to do an unsuccessful one.  The bigger risk to Putin is these guys teaming up with other power blocs.  That would be even more problematic.

So I'll come back around... no matter how this strike is looked at, it has strategic implications for both Russia and Ukraine.  The neutralizing of this one base, for however long, and destroying up to 40ish aircraft, is potentially strategic.  Depends on how much Russia relied on this base and these planes for operations over Kherson.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

28 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

This one, I don't think Neptun can do.
 

 

Thanks for bringing this one up again.  In my initial reaction to the Crimea strike I pointed to this as evidence of HIMARS.  If so, then Ukraine has longer range missiles in hand.  I don't think Ukraine has the Scarab-C rockets, so that's outside of Totchka-U range.  I also think we can rule out partisans since it seems out of scale for them.

If Ukraine has HIMRAS to attack Genichesk, then obviously it has HIRAMS to attack Novofedorivka.  Open and shut case?  Maybe not.

It is possible that Ukraine used HIMARS on Genichesk and something else on Novofedorivka or whtaever hit Novofedorivka (not Neptun, not HIMARS) also hit Genichesk.

A gambler would put money on HIMARS for both strikes, except the Ukrainians explicitly stated Novofedorivka was their own weapon system.  There's really no benefit for them to lie, so I think it's at least mostly true (foreign made or assembled parts?).  And that puts us back to being uncertain about what hit Novofedorivka

Neptun launch from mainland is questionable due to range and approach (unless it does have a range of 300km as advertised).  But how about dropped from a plane flying just off the coast?  It seems Ukraine rigged HARMS in this sort of way, so isn't it possible to do it for Neptun?  They've had several months to work on this even if there was no work done before, so that seems to me at least theoretically possible.

Steve

[FancyCat]

Zelensky's speech tonight. Quite forceful, and if all recall, a lot more hardened than the position at the beginning of the war. 

Whether or not Crimea does get returned to Ukraine, the fact remains, if Russia retains control of it, future economic blackmail of Ukraine, Europe and the World remains viable, as well as future launch points for invading Ukraine again.

The longer the war goes on and Russian capability degrades and Ukrainian capability increases, even if the US, UK, France and Germany oppose the return of Crimea, I think that the support of allies like Poland and other EE states might offer Ukraine more ability to pursue military means to retake Crimea.

Nationalist factions in Ukraine might gain enough power to bulldoze opposition worried about loss of foreign support.

The longer Putin pursues maximalist objectives like annexing occupied territories of Ukraine, the longer the war continues on the current slope of growing Ukrainian capability, the more hardening will occur on the position of Crimea.

Putin can either fight for every itch of Ukraine without mobilization and lose it all as the West must give weapons to prevent stalemate and annexation or withdraw in goodwill gestures back to the pre-invasion borders and dare Ukraine to launch costly offensives with a strong Russian push in Europe to settle for a Russian loss but retaining the existing preinvasion areas.

And of course mobilization is death for Putin anyway so I didn't bother suggesting it.

 

[Calamine Waffles]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for bringing this one up again.  In my initial reaction to the Crimea strike I pointed to this as evidence of HIMARS.  If so, then Ukraine has longer range missiles in hand.  I don't think Ukraine has the Scarab-C rockets, so that's outside of Totchka-U range.  I also think we can rule out partisans since it seems out of scale for them.

If Ukraine has HIMRAS to attack Genichesk, then obviously it has HIRAMS to attack Novofedorivka.  Open and shut case?  Maybe not.

It is possible that Ukraine used HIMARS on Genichesk and something else on Novofedorivka or whtaever hit Novofedorivka (not Neptun, not HIMARS) also hit Genichesk.

A gambler would put money on HIMARS for both strikes, except the Ukrainians explicitly stated Novofedorivka was their own weapon system.  There's really no benefit for them to lie, so I think it's at least mostly true (foreign made or assembled parts?).  And that puts us back to being uncertain about what hit Novofedorivka

Neptun launch from mainland is questionable due to range and approach (unless it does have a range of 300km as advertised).  But how about dropped from a plane flying just off the coast?  It seems Ukraine rigged HARMS in this sort of way, so isn't it possible to do it for Neptun?  They've had several months to work on this even if there was no work done before, so that seems to me at least theoretically possible.

Steve

It is possible in theory. The S-400s based in Crimea should be able to detect and engage such an attack even beyond the horizon, but they might have grown so complacent to be asleep or might be off due to risk from HARM launches.

The main thing is I don't know how accurate Neptun would be against land targets.

Edited August 9, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

It is possible in theory. The S-400s based in Crimea should be able to detect and engage such an attack even beyond the horizon, but they might have grown so complacent to be asleep or might be off due to risk from HARM launches.

Good point.  Yeah, I think the S-400 systems would have to be offline if it was a HIMARS or other ballistic missile attack.  Possible, especially if they keep it off until a more forward system gets a detection.  That's dumb, but dumb seems to be SOP with the Russians.

On the other hand, we've already figured out that Neptun is pretty much immune to land and air based countermeasures.  Hell, it was even immune to ship based countermeasures as practiced by the Russians

So this new thought is, I think, supportive of a Neptun strike.

3 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

The main thing is I don't know how accurate Neptun would be against land targets.

If the target is vertical and roughly as large as the middle of a ship, then it should be accurate enough.  And if my guesswork holds up to facts we don't have yet, then they might have had as many as 1-3 misses for each of their (likely) 2 hits.

Steve

[Beleg85]

41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, except that FSB is one of the possible sources for regime change.  So having the FSB be fully invested into the Nat community isn't necessarily a good thing for Putin   Let's also not forget that Girkin is still FSB (once FSB, always FSB).

Their opinions matter because they hold sway over a certain chunk of the Kremlin decision makers.  As per previous discussions, not enough to likely successfully conduct a regime change on their own, but possibly enough to do an unsuccessful one.  The bigger risk to Putin is these guys teaming up with other power blocs.  That would be even more problematic.

Well, yes this thesis may be correct. It would need massive amount of support from middle and higher ranks of security apparatus, and frankly most true Russian nats are completelly outside real power structures; in other words- FSB controlling them would need to become controlled by them. Unlikely. The collective will is simply not there; coup by "oportunists" seem much more probable. But basic scenario in my view is: nothing happens and nats as always will need to wipe their tears in silence looking at portraits of Nicholas II/Stalin/Hitler or whatever strange demigod they cherish in their mummies basements.

But maybe let's move this discussion for later, as more interesting things are happening now.

 

Just look at it...this beam may have even travell several hundred meters to directly impale somebody's car. Surpisingly, the car is not entirely destroyed. Almost surreal.

 

Edited August 9, 2022 by Beleg85

[Calamine Waffles]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good point.  Yeah, I think the S-400 systems would have to be offline if it was a HIMARS or other ballistic missile attack.  Possible, especially if they keep it off until a more forward system gets a detection.  That's dumb, but dumb seems to be SOP with the Russians.

On the other hand, we've already figured out that Neptun is pretty much immune to land and air based countermeasures.  Hell, it was even immune to ship based countermeasures as practiced by the Russians

So this new thought is, I think, supportive of a Neptun strike.

If the target is vertical and roughly as large as the middle of a ship, then it should be accurate enough.  And if my guesswork holds up to facts we don't have yet, then they might have had as many as 1-3 misses for each of their (likely) 2 hits.

Steve

There's also the risk from Russian CAPs (any Ukrainian strike package would be at a substantial disadvantage due to inferior radar and missiles if the Russians are carrying R-77s), although Western ISR may be able to guide them and time the strike.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, akd said:

I find it hard to believe Neptune (or other cruise missile) would not have been seen / filmed crossing crowded coast at noon in summer.

Well, it is even harder to believe they wouldn't have heard/seen HIMARS come screaming in for a landing, yet no witnesses say they heard or saw such thing.

Personally, I think it's easier to imagine not seeing the Neptun coming in.  And as for hearing them?  They probably hear all kinds of aircraft around there so they might be immune to the noise.  Especially if there was a significant wind that wasn't coming from the direction of the Neptuns.  Sometimes the wind is so loud on the shore that you can't hear much of anything.

Whatever the case might be, something caused civilians to get out their phones and start filming in the direction of the airbase very quickly after something struck it. 

Steve

[Sojourner]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

A gambler would put money on HIMARS for both strikes, except the Ukrainians explicitly stated Novofedorivka was their own weapon system.  There's really no benefit for them to lie, so I think it's at least mostly true (foreign made or assembled parts?).  And that puts us back to being uncertain about what hit Novofedorivka

Ukraine has a very good reason to lie... and you stated it yourself... keeping RU uncertain about what hit Novofederovka. As long as they don't know they don't know how to react or where it might be safe. I wish the countries sending stuff would be more discrete about what they're sending - it would be much more effective if RU didn't know what might be coming.

About Novofedorivka, earlier today CNN said something about a railroad station hit near there, on a critical rail line RU had recently put back in service. So many another ammo train? Surprised we haven't seen any photos from that one yet.

[Calamine Waffles]

HIMARS GMLRS has a terminal velocity of Mach 2.5, so you would not hear it prior to impact in the target area. ATACMS is even faster (> Mach 3), and a ballistic missile more so.

[The_Capt]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good point.  Yeah, I think the S-400 systems would have to be offline if it was a HIMARS or other ballistic missile attack.  Possible, especially if they keep it off until a more forward system gets a detection.  That's dumb, but dumb seems to be SOP with the Russians.

On the other hand, we've already figured out that Neptun is pretty much immune to land and air based countermeasures.  Hell, it was even immune to ship based countermeasures as practiced by the Russians

So this new thought is, I think, supportive of a Neptun strike.

If the target is vertical and roughly as large as the middle of a ship, then it should be accurate enough.  And if my guesswork holds up to facts we don't have yet, then they might have had as many as 1-3 misses for each of their (likely) 2 hits.

Steve

Whatever missile it was it is demonstrating a new threat range.  It would be the precision that should terrify the Russians.  This strike knew exactly where to hit based on the damage the secondaries have done.  Hell, they may have been watching for a crew shift change on the Russian AD.

Of course the Russians are going with “someone dropped a cigarette” line, literally.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/large-explosions-rock-russian-military-air-base-in-crimea-1.6019633

[Beleg85]

13 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Ukraine has a very good reason to lie... and you stated it yourself... keeping RU uncertain about what hit Novofederovka. As long as they don't know they don't know how to react or where it might be safe. I wish the countries sending stuff would be more discrete about what they're sending - it would be much more effective if RU didn't know what might be coming.

Russians will know quite soon when recover debris- missile this size will probably be easy to identify. If they tell it to public is another matter. For now, they seem to be preoccupied with puting some order into this bardak.I hope they will not have time and means to remove wrecks of aircrafts until commercial satellites wil take their photos.

Edited August 10, 2022 by Beleg85

[akd]

On 8/7/2022 at 10:48 AM, akd said:

Lt. Col. Vitaly Tsikul, unknown unit:

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Tsikul was a deputy commander in a tank regiment (6th or 80th Guards Tank Regiment) of the 90th Guards Tank Division:

Maj. Askar Robortdinov, unit unknown (aviation?)

 

Edited August 10, 2022 by akd

[sburke]

39 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Of course the Russians are going with “someone dropped a cigarette” line, literally.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/large-explosions-rock-russian-military-air-base-in-crimea-1.6019633

I think they may have to update those warning labels on cigarettes.

[LongLeftFlank]

8 hours ago, Panserjeger said:

 

Umm, I seem to recall them having a slightly worse day on 22 June 1941.... 

****

Meanwhile, you may find youself in a different part of the world.... 

 I do loves me some good CT snark lol.

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Umm, I seem to recall them having a slightly worse day on 22 June 1941....

Technically the Soviet Union on that date…if we are going to play “Forum Thread Nitpick”

[LongLeftFlank]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Technically the Soviet Union on that date…if we are going to play “Forum Thread Nitpick”

[Billy Ringo]

https://rogerwaters.com/tour/

 

Columbus, OH, Long Island, DC, Raleigh, Atlanta, Miami, Orlando, Nashville, NY, NY---all coming up this month on tour for Roger Waters.  He has always been political and never seemed to care who he may have offended, but those words may come back to haunt him in the coming weeks.