How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/niecodzienna-sytuacja-na-krymie-rosyjscy-zolnierze-padli-ofiara-deratyzacji/t9pb50z?utm_source=t.co_viasg_wiadomosci&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=leo_automatic&srcc=ucs&utm_v=2

And a bunch of Russian soldiers got poisoned in Crimea somewhere unpronounceable. Supposedly by excessively enthusiastic exterminators. I guess they know vermin when they see them.

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting that a Ukrainian military official said that the weapon used was of Ukrainian manufacture.  I have to say I don't believe it.  Maybe a Ukrainian modification of a Western supplied munition... OK, maybe they figured out how to launch something in a way that the original weapon wasn't intended to do.  But coming up with a totally home built precision guidance system of this sort?  I'd love for this to be true, but I don't think so.

What we need to know is how many hits were there and if the explosions we saw were primary or secondary effect.  Because if Ukraine really did cobble something together, I doubt it was 10 of them (one report speculated 10 hits).  And if the huge explosion was a primary explosion, then it would need to be a pretty big munition.  However, if the explosion was secondary then I suppose something like a Harpoon hit was on an aviation fuel or munitions depot would produce the effect we saw.

We also need to tie this into the slightly earlier strike that was just north of Crimea.  The two are most likely related in terms of the weapon used and an intended message for Russia.

It's in Ukraine's best interest to keep everybody guessing or assuming it was HIMARS.

Steve

have to add to my list "drones". Also partisan launched kamikaze drones.

My top contender. 

[FancyCat]

53 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, I do think the HARM attacks were related to the attack on the airbase.  Neptune is a possibility, but I didn't think it was capable of doing this sort of damage or striking successfully from so far away.  It also seems more likely than something home built being put onto a Tochka-U rocket.

Whatever Ukraine used to hit the base, it worked and there's sure to be more of it.

This might also be something that the US is using to gauge reactions for sending ATACMS.  If Russian reactions to this aren't all that bad, then ATACMS is a lot "safer" to give Ukraine.

Steve

Just like the Moskva. It's very lovely Russia is being reminded Ukraine isnt a bunch of rural yokels. Terrifying too, the capability of this former-Soviet state and its people. In no way can Russia be allowed to take and one day turn Ukraine into a sword against the rest of Europe. (How fortunate for the EU, Ukraine wishes nothing more than to join it)

One, I hope God protects Kherson Cat's relatives in Kherson region particularly strongly. Two, some very good sourcing for the strikes there.

Recall also attacks against mainland Russia already, both airfields, oil depots, using missiles and aircraft. While Russia must absolutely respond to these Crimean strikes, it's also notable that Ukraine and the U.S has been steadily operating with strategic initiative in the realm of escalation.

Speaks volumes to Putin's and his government's comfort in the peace, then the "hybrid war" vs actual war, where they seem completely outmatched. Also bravo to the West collectively. Yes, it could be better, but managing potential of nuclear conflict is essential and so far they are managing it very well, particular emphasis on Biden, and Eastern Europe, EE for their resounding response to assist Ukraine, and Biden for ensuring for their part (U.S, the West, NATO), Russia cannot, is not forced to climb the nuclear conflict ladder, while also ensuring Ukraine is clearly being strengthened in ways viable for the liberation of all of Ukraine.

 

Edited August 9, 2022 by FancyCat

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

have to add to my list "drones". Also partisan launched kamikaze drones.

My top contender. 

speaking of partisan activity, I wonder what will be the reaction of RU?  Most folks here know the germans practiced extensive collective punishment for partisan activity in WW2.  What will RU do?  Will it be just up to local commanders?  Orders at a higher level?  RU so far has shown it couldn't care less about war crimes, even stunningly obvious mass murder of POWs, so I am definitely worried about what they will do to civilians in hot areas. 

[Harmon Rabb]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

It's not only Walters. Steven S. visited Olenivka camp, where he theatrically inspected fragments of "GMLRS shell"...Jesus, what a shmonc without a grain of integrity.

 

His integrity is Under Siege. What an irrelevant has been.

Edited August 9, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Vet 0369]

14 hours ago, dan/california said:

There are a lot of analogies with Guadalcanal. Bear with me on this. The Japanese eventually lost because their resupply was gradually choked down over a period of months. Some weeks they got more, some weeks they got less, but on average they didn't get enough to maintain a force that could stand up to the Marines. Even though the Marines had no shortage of problems themselves. In the end the U.S. won the logistics battle, and in an attritional fight that is really the only one that matters. And to put to mildly the Russians are less motivated than the Japanese.

It needs to be stated here that the Marines were on Guadalcanal for only about six months (August, 1942 to February, 1943). The Marines completed their basic mission “To seize and secure advanced Naval bases,” and turned over the remaining persecution of the Campaign to the U.S. Army and National Guard units, so effectively, while the Marines made the initial shock force assaults, the Army and National Guard completed it.

[Twisk]

I wonder if NATO expertise assisted Ukrainian industry to develop longer range rocket that Haiduk speaks of? Perhaps there were some relatively minor problems delaying the Ukrainians from completing the system that Military Industrial Complex of NATO had solutions for (materials, expertise).

Brain trust of NATO may work with Ukrainian engineers to solve technical problems or maybe if industrial problems NATO supply better materials that solve problem and can bring rocket into action.

Edited August 9, 2022 by Twisk

[Cederic]

T-90M with what isn't a cope cage.

https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/russias_t90m_proryv_looters_pack_spot_in_ukraine-3819.html

 

It's a barbecue rack, so they can get those steaks just right when the tank cooks off.

[FancyCat]

Vindman makes a good point, Russia has not stopped pursuing maximalist objectives in Ukraine, with not even a hint of concessions or deescalation like talks.

 

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Twisk said:

I wonder if NATO expertise assisted Ukrainian industry to develop longer range rocket that Haiduk speaks of? Perhaps there were some relatively minor problems delaying the Ukrainians from completing the system that Military Industrial Complex of NATO had solutions for (materials, expertise).

As I know from our Military portal forum discussions (the forum, alas, already inactive) new homing system for Neptun missile was based on US-supplied technology. But all works of developing and design were done onour Radioniks enterprise. Neptun had two or even three generations of homimg systems during it development since 2010.

In 2018-2019 (before Zelenskiy came to power) were showed results of test hits on targets by Neptun, but as turned out later there were several unsuccessfull launches, so military rejected to adopt this missile, and developers in shortest time to November 2019 made changes in homing system (allegedly based on US-technology) there was new round of state tests and only in August 2020 Neptun was adopted. First battalion and missile set should be produced to April 2022. This delay born the myth that "Zelenskiy as Kremlin agent, ruined UKR missile program", which actively spread by former president Poroshenko's bot farms and his followers, but this is obviously dirty political games, no more. At least if we say about Neptun. Because about "Vil'kha" project (some sort of UKR HIMARS) there was some questions.    

So, this it not 100 % equal  to Soviet/Russian Kh-35U, though symilar visually. 

[Haiduk]

One more Novofedorivka strike video

 

[Haiduk]

By the way, yesterday, in the Day of UKR Air Forces, Russia hit some Air Forces facilities in Vinnytsia oblast with theree Kh-47 Kinzhal supersonic missiles, launched from MiG-31M heavy interceptors. 

I some worry about this night. Russians can retaliate on Kyiv for today boom. 

[Letter from Prague]

I like this picture the most. Tourists chilling on the beach in occupied land, pretending there's no war, confronted with what they support (whether actively or by "being nonpolitical").

 

 

I hope this shakes the regime, but it seems they decided to play it off like Moskva and pretend nothing is happening.

[Cederic]

Apologies for going meme on you, but this one's going to, erm, take off, so here's where it started:

 

[Haiduk]

As if this is first video from airfield. Destroyed Su-24

 

[Huba]

Haiduk was few seconds faster

Edited August 9, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I like this picture the most. Tourists chilling on the beach in occupied land, pretending there's no war, confronted with what they support (whether actively or by "being nonpolitical").

I hope this shakes the regime, but it seems they decided to play it off like Moskva and pretend nothing is happening.

[Letter from Prague]

 

[The_Capt]

15 minutes ago, Cederic said:

Apologies for going meme on you, but this one's going to, erm, take off, so here's where it started:

 

So this is a strategic strike - it could be argued that the target was operational but the effect is definitely going to exceed the operational level, much like the sinking of the Moskva  The level of ISR required to set this up is not small and I suspect the Russians did not even think that the UA had the capability to hit at that range.

Let's all try and remember this the next time the Russians manage to take 100m of dirt in the Donbas.

[Battlefront.com]

Looks like Oryx has got some work to do on its aircraft losses section

OK, so there's a possibility that Ukraine used a long developed, but never deployed, rocket system with the possible addition of a Western (US) guidance system.  That I think is possible.  If the Ukrainians had a rocket system that was designed to be precise, and was just having trouble with the guidance system, I am guessing that a Western system could be substituted with some late nights and a lot of Red Bull.

To me this is more likely than Neptune.  The videos we've seen so far show that there might have been 3-4 hits.  First one (or more) drew attention to the airport from civilians.  They started filming.  Two near simultaneous and very large explosions spaced reasonably far apart were captured.  Then there was another large explosion which seems to have been proceeded by a flash, so perhaps another hit rather than a secondary explosion.

Steve

[Vacillator]

22 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Cheeky!  That is one unusual holiday photo .

[Huba]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

To me this is more likely than Neptune.  The videos we've seen so far show that there might have been 3-4 hits.  First one (or more) drew attention to the airport from civilians.  They started filming.  Two near simultaneous and very large explosions spaced reasonably far apart were captured.  Then there was another large explosion which seems to have been proceeded by a flash, so perhaps another hit rather than a secondary explosion.

So are we betting if ground attack version of Neptune is being produced in Ukraine itself, or if production line (or what remained of it) was set up in some NATO country? I'd go with option number two. Mass producing Ukraine designed weapons outside the country sound to me like perfect way to avoid sudden escalation that ATACMS could bring.

In other news, UA NASAMS will be equipped with AMRAAM-ER missiles:

 

 

Edited August 9, 2022 by Huba

[Letter from Prague]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So this is a strategic strike - it could be argued that the target was operational but the effect is definitely going to exceed the operational level, much like the sinking of the Moskva  The level of ISR required to set this up is not small and I suspect the Russians did not even think that the UA had the capability to hit at that range.

Let's all try and remember this the next time the Russians manage to take 100m of dirt in the Donbas.

How do you mean strategic? Do you think it is aimed at removing the capability provided by those planes (standoff and controlling Black Sea?) or do I misunderstand that?

One I dunno if strategic but definitely long-term level I think this is Ukraine showing "see, it's not like ATACMS would be an escalation, we can already do some of this, now gimme".

[Huba]

Just now, Letter from Prague said:

How do you mean strategic? Do you think it is aimed at removing the capability provided by those planes (standoff and controlling Black Sea?) or do I misunderstand that?

One I dunno if strategic but definitely long-term level I think this is Ukraine showing "see, it's not like ATACMS would be an escalation, we can already do some of this, now gimme".

The aim is strategic. It isn't only about destroying the base, it is about asserting the ownership of Crimea and showing that it can and will be struck when UA decides so. I won't be treated like Russia proper.

[OldSarge]

From RFE/RL a Bureviy  system on a Czech-built Tatra truck.