How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[hcrof]

13 minutes ago, Grigb said:

It puts special emphasis on CB, yes. I believe in smaller GMLRS on smaller wheeled chassis (pickup) linked to mobile CB radar. During Arty ping pong guns usually stay at longest range (to increase chances to survive CB) so, it takes time to walk arty to target (well, I am talking about RU arty). 

So, as soon as enemy arty starts ping pong it gets mini-GMLS in da face. The only thing it might require some active head to precisely lock on gun.

Brimstone missiles sound like exactly what you are looking for - Ukraine even got them mounted on a pickup! 

What happened to that experiment btw?

[Huba]

Just now, hcrof said:

Brimstone missiles sound like exactly what you are looking for - Ukraine even got them mounted on a pickup! 

What happened to that experiment btw?

It is used successfully AFAIK, there was also a video of one launcher being hit by RU. I'd say that GPS-guided, tube launched munitions like Excalibur are the holy grail here, against towed guns at least. Against enemy SPGs, various BONUS/ SMart types would be the best tool.

[Grigb]

53 minutes ago, Huba said:

They have to switch to square meters at some point to better describe the successes

Square meters have much less psychological impact than the names of the captured settlements. It is their old WW2 trick. Comrades, Victory! we capture Manure settlement! Comrades, Great Victory - we captured Dung settlement!  Comrades, We are unstoppable - Muck settlement is ours! Also, we surrendered a few unimportant settlements [like Brest, Kiev or Smolensk] but we will not tell their names because they are unimportant. 

But when they have nothing good to say they just change the subject (look war in Kosovo! Look Pelosy fly to Asia!) and discuss anything else until good news arrives. 

 

53 minutes ago, Huba said:

What is more telling IMO is that RU didn't yet managed to counterattack and reduce this bridgehead. 

Yes, it is big win actually. 

 

53 minutes ago, Huba said:

Depending whom you believe, the Davidyv Brid ("David's ford", right?) was pushed at and destroyed almost immediately, while here it seems UA is having an upper hand, and it is a critically important spot.

Yes, it is David's ford. From RU side it looked worse - it was like UKR push was close to success and RU were extremely nervous and hit it with everything they got managing to turn the scales to RU side. UKR seems to have learned its lesson and here we are.  

[hcrof]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

It is used successfully AFAIK, there was also a video of one launcher being hit by RU. I'd say that GPS-guided, tube launched munitions like Excalibur are the holy grail here, against towed guns at least. Against enemy SPGs, various BONUS/ SMart types would be the best tool.

I kind of like the idea of sneaking in an easily concealed brimstone platform close to the front line - it would be cheap, mobile and very fast to respond due to the reduced range compared with a SPG like Caesar playing "ping pong".

[Chibot Mk IX]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I didn't see this posted here.  Footage from a few days ago showing Russia's ferry crossing of the Dnepr and the reason for it.  It's not too hard to see that this isn't a substitute for the bridges in any meaningful way. 

This footage caused some to notice there's new things in the water aside from the ferry crossing.  Specifically attempts to "dazzle" radar guided munitions:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-building-ghost-bridges-with-radar-reflectors-in-ukraine

As anybody who knows anything about HIMARS rockets and various PGM 155mm rounds... they aren't radar guided   Which means we can add another thing to the various "cope" programs of the Russian armed forces.

Someone in the comments section suggested they could be there to aid maritime radar spotting the bridge as a hazard to avoid.  I don't think so.  The timing of these things is apparently post strike and they were also newly established around the Kerch bridge (or at least that's the reporting).  I'll stick with them being a way to reassure Russian forces that Putin has a plan to keep them safe and these large pieplates will do just that.

Steve

This engineering work can provide some protection to the ferry, it will obscure the SAR radar surveillances. I will be no surprise the two bridges are under 24/7 surveillances of MQ-4s, so maybe RUS are using the array of pyramidal radar reflectors to hide troops movement across the water via ferry.

Of course obscure the surveillance on the river is not enough, they need more engineering work to extend the protection to ferry entry/exit point, vehicle assembling area, etc.

[Grigb]

7 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Brimstone missiles sound like exactly what you are looking for - Ukraine even got them mounted on a pickup! 

What happened to that experiment btw?

Yes, I am a big fan of Brims. Brim, NLAW, Streak, LMM are impressive weapons. 

So far UKR is very secretive about Brims. Apart from that video of double strikes, I have seen only two claims and both from RU. First there was a claim that UKR are using strange small missile truck up north at the border with RU. Second is the recently captured Brim missile which looks like old missiles from April, I think.

I suspect UKR are keeping them behind front lines as anti-tank reserve for a big surprise RU tanks pushes. But because there is no bug RU tank pushes, so no work for them.  

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

Yes, I am a big fan of Brims. Brim, NLAW, Streak, LMM are impressive weapons. 

So far UKR is very secretive about Brims. Apart from that video of double strikes, I have seen only two claims and both from RU. First there was a claim that UKR are using strange small missile truck up north at the border with RU. Second is the recently captured Brim missile which looks like old missiles from April, I think.

I suspect UKR are keeping them behind front lines as anti-tank reserve for a big surprise RU tanks pushes. But because there is no bug RU tank pushes, so no work for them.  

If I am remembering several things correctly they would need about twice the range to be really effective in a counter battery role.

[FancyCat]

Wow, so much for warfare experts to mull over.

We still have some time for Ukraine to retake Kherson oblast, time that Ukraine should and is rightly devoting to using precision fire to reduce Russian ability to defend. The additional of more NATO artillery is very useful.

Fingers crossed, that Ukraine can pull this off and retake Kherson before the winter. With the statements and impressions of the Ukrainian people primed to expect it, anything less is not great for Ukraine.

[Grigb]

19 minutes ago, Huba said:

It is used successfully AFAIK, there was also a video of one launcher being hit by RU. I'd say that GPS-guided, tube launched munitions like Excalibur are the holy grail here, against towed guns at least. Against enemy SPGs, various BONUS/ SMart types would be the best tool.

Missiles do not betray launch position to CB radar. Also, you can launch the whole volley of them rather quickly. And still can mount it on a small vehicle.  As an overwatch unit with universal warheads capable of hitting hard a wide range of targets from tanks to arty to infantry you cannot beat it.  

[hcrof]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

If I am remembering several things correctly they would need about twice the range to be really effective in a counter battery role.

Wiki says brimstone II has a range of 40+ km?

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

If I am remembering several things correctly they would need about twice the range to be really effective in a counter battery role.

Yes, but the latest generations have a bigger range (including Spear which is I believe derivative of Brim). Still some work might be needed but it is not impossible - Spike NLOS have claimed range of 25 km.

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Wiki says brimstone II has a range of 40+ km?

It is from aircraft.

[hcrof]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

It is from aircraft.

Rotor wing though - fixed wing is further. I assumed a heli would be fairly stationary while firing.

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Yes, but the latest generations have a bigger range (including Spear which is I believe derivative of Brim). Still some work might be needed but it is not impossible - Spike NLOS have claimed range of 25 km.

This is another case of Ukraine working with only part of a tool set. NATO doctrine would have the counter battery fire being conducted by some combination of GMLRS and aircraft. But Ukraine doesn't have nearly enough of the former, and the latter cannot operate over Russian lines at all, and and have few if any PGMs. So they are frantically patching together a doctrine based on what they actually have. Using GMLRS on bridges is another case in point, it works but it isn't actually made for that. The air dropped 1000 pound PGMs designed to penetrate concrete would just put the the thing in the water instantly.

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Yes, but the latest generations have a bigger range (including Spear which is I believe derivative of Brim). Still some work might be needed but it is not impossible - Spike NLOS have claimed range of 25 km.

That exactly. One capability many western armies have, and UA is missing completely are the TV/ IIR guided NLOS missiles like Spike. I watched a bunch of videos about Spike in Armenian/ Azarbaijan confict, and these weapons are just unfair. I think they offset the need for kamikaze drones to a large degree too. While not having the ability to loiter and wait for a target to appear, these are perfectly good to be launched in general vicinity of the target, which is then picked by the operator. And add to it 100% immunity to jamming due to fibre-optic link. And if needed, these can be fire-and-forget launched too to counter bigger groups quickly.

12 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Missiles do not betray launch position to CB radar. Also, you can launch the whole volley of them rather quickly. And still can mount it on a small vehicle.  As an overwatch unit with universal warheads capable of hitting hard a wide range of targets from tanks to arty to infantry you cannot beat it.  

That is true - OTOH you cannot match range, travel speed and the saturation possible to achieve with PzH2000. Imagine a battery of these loaded full with Excalibur/ BONUS and assigned solely to CB fire along the part of the front. For most fire missions you would need a section to fire 1 round each and then scoot, and you could do it from 30+km from the target. 

Also, I'm sure than when push comes to shove, the M270s and an assortment of GMLRS will be assigned to fire on battlefield targets of opportunity/ doing CB in the tactical/ operational depth against MLRSes especially. In general, as The_Capt mentioned, mass of precision fire employed in a limited space should be the way to go here, and looking at what US deliver to UA, it will be achieved by GMLRS and tube launched 155mm.

[Billy Ringo]

14 minutes ago, Huba said:

That exactly. One capability many western armies have, and UA is missing completely are the TV/ IIR guided NLOS missiles like Spike. I watched a bunch of videos about Spike in Armenian/ Azarbaijan confict, and these weapons are just unfair. I think they offset the need for kamikaze drones to a large degree too. While not having the ability to loiter and wait for a target to appear, these are perfectly good to be launched in general vicinity of the target, which is then picked by the operator. And add to it 100% immunity to jamming due to fibre-optic link. And if needed, these can be fire-and-forget launched too to counter bigger groups quickly.

That is true - OTOH you cannot match range, travel speed and the saturation possible to achieve with PzH2000. Imagine a battery of these loaded full with Excalibur/ BONUS and assigned solely to CB fire along the part of the front. For most fire missions you would need a section to fire 1 round each and then scoot, and you could do it from 30+km from the target. 

Also, I'm sure than when push comes to shove, the M270s and an assortment of GMLRS will be assigned to fire on battlefield targets of opportunity/ doing CB in the tactical/ operational depth against MLRSes especially. In general, as The_Capt mentioned, mass of precision fire employed in a limited space should be the way to go here, and looking at what US deliver to UA, it will be achieved by GMLRS and tube launched 155mm.

Is this the same thing? (And can't speak for the validity of the source.)

 

Edited August 2, 2022 by Billy Ringo
added waiver

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Due to lack of effective counters the drones can approach to a distance where no stealth help (literally can sit above you). Push them away (500 meters for cheat, 1 km or better for more expensive ones) or force them to observe only for a limited amount of time and camo skills, clothes and camo equipment open way to use bigger (relatively) masses of infantry and move them faster (relatively).

The Ukrainians seem to have large numbers of MANPADS. Do the current missiles not work against drones? I have read that particularly the Martlet LMM is optimised against them.

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1554408373164146689?s=20&t=TQ5plH4HLS6dU-NQ1TpQcw

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1554422127247458304?s=20&t=n6oTyHo4AA8BOa3wpbUkxQ

Train hit near Kherson 

EDIT: This is old video from Russia for 2014, explosion on their training range.

 

Edited August 2, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[Huba]

23 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

Is this the same thing? (And can't speak for the validity of the source.)

 

Not really - this is a laser guided bomb, while I'm talking about non-line-of-sight missiles which are usualy ground launched. Check out the sale video:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spike_(missile)

[Grigb]

44 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This is another case of Ukraine working with only part of a tool set. NATO doctrine would have the counter battery fire being conducted by some combination of GMLRS and aircraft. But Ukraine doesn't have nearly enough of the former, and the latter cannot operate over Russian lines at all, and and have few if any PGMs. So they are frantically patching together a doctrine based on what they actually have. Using GMLRS on bridges is another case in point, it works but it isn't actually made for that. The air dropped 1000 pound PGMs designed to penetrate concrete would just put the the thing in the water instantly.

Yes. RU are still in the fight because UKR CB as a system is much less capable than NATO. That why I personally give RU a about a week against NATO. 

[Grigb]

22 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

The Ukrainians seem to have large numbers of MANPADS. Do the current missiles not work against drones? I have read that particularly the Martlet LMM is optimised against them.

LMM optimized against bigger so-called arty drones like Orlans. Against smaller literally Mavic drones LMM could work (sometimes) but Mavic is like 2k-3k and LMM is 50k. Also, UKR do not have as much LMM as needed to cover even AA needs.

But against Arty drones like Orlan LMM seems to be the best option, yes. Rumor is Stingers and similar ones have issues detecting and locking on to the arty drones. So, it looks like only LMM can nail them, but as per @Haiduk it is not clear whether LMM can get Orlan at max altitude. Still, it does the job. So, UKR are keeping a mix of Streaks and LMM in their HVMs. 

[poesel]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

 I'm rather skeptical regarding the drone on drone combat, in the near future at least.  Thing is that to have anything at least a bit capable in air to air, and able to prosecute missions independently (meaning acquiring and attacking airborne targets) you are looking at pretty large craft.

I think we think of drones of different sizes. I was more at the tactical level. What is now mostly OTS drones with a range of <5 km. Used by infantry, ATGM or light mortar teams for reconnaissance or target correction for organic or long range artillery.

To kill these things, you can use drones of a similar size. As a weapon, you just need something like a net or wire - anything that entangles well in a propeller.

How to find enemy drones and if that fight is autonomous or human controlled are the problems that need to be solved.

2 hours ago, Huba said:

Of course you could use small kamikaze drones, that are at least to a degree guided externally, but that is already here and it's called a SAM.

I agree that for the bigger ones the solution is SAMs.

44 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Missiles do not betray launch position to CB radar.

Care to explain? I would have assumed that rockets should be easier to detect than artillery grenades. Missiles are larger and slower. Since they are maneuverable, you cannot just calculate their trajectory backwards, but if you track them from the start? Thanks!

[danfrodo]

26 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1554408373164146689?s=20&t=TQ5plH4HLS6dU-NQ1TpQcw

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1554422127247458304?s=20&t=n6oTyHo4AA8BOa3wpbUkxQ

Train hit near Kherson 

 

Absolutely heartwarming video, TMonkeyKing.  I laughed, I cried w joy, a sublime experience. Watching those orcs scurrying away from the scene was a true delight.  And a whole bunch of much needed RU supplies either up in smoke or stuck in derailed railcars.  And this is the rail line that's gonna feed an offensive to Kryvhi rhi?

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, poesel said:

Care to explain? I would have assumed that rockets should be easier to detect than artillery grenades. Missiles are larger and slower. Since they are maneuverable, you cannot just calculate their trajectory backwards, but if you track them from the start? Thanks!

But you cannot track them from the start as they do not fly vertically up. You can detect them when they are finally in your line of sight but as you said you cannot calculate their trajectory backwards. 

[billbindc]

 

If Ukraine is pulling a Pas de Calais in Kherson, it's certainly not stinting on the misdirection.