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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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Some news unrelated to the Russo-Ukranian war, but definitively related with Russia´s war on Europe:

 

 

Nothing confirmed yet, of course, but it looks, from someone that doesnt know that much about the Balkans, ugly. I am actually asthonished with this move. One thing is to stir trouble in Bosnia using the Sprska Republic. Other thing is to invade Kosovo, which is under (supposedly?) American protection. 

Are the russians about to escalate the conflict in Europe? The Serbians must have some kind of guarantees if they are going to go ahead with this, thats for sure. Obviously, it might end in nothing, but you never know, and the rethoric coming from serbian officials is definitively dangerous.

Edited by CHEqTRO
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Well, looks like Putun is going to open "second front" on Balakans?

Top-member of Serbian "Progressive party" Vladimir Dzhukanovich write in own twitter "I guess more and more, Serbia will be forced to start denazification of Balkans. I would like to be wrong"

In Kosovo meanwile tensions are raising between Albanian government and Serbs, living in northern party of country. They buid barricades and block roads. Some sources shared unconfirmed information that Serbian army is on hight alert. 

@CHEqTRO :)

Edited by Haiduk
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22 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Some news unrelated to the Russo-Ukranian war, but definitively related with Russia´s war on Europe:

 

 

Nothing confirmed yet, of course, but it looks, from someone that doesnt know that much about the Balkans, ugly. I am actually asthonished with this move. One thing is to stir trouble in Bosnia using the Sprska Republic. Other thing is to invade Kosovo, which is under (supposedly?) American protection. 

Are the russians about to escalate the conflict in Europe? The Serbians must have some kind of guarantees if they are going to go ahead with this, thats for sure. Obviously, it might end in nothing, but you never know, and the rethoric coming from serbian officials is definitively dangerous.

KFOR is already established. Serbia is going to get spanked hard if it tries to invade Kosovo and Russia isn’t going to be able to do much about it.

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36 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Vadaturksyi was never actively involved in big politic, limiting himself by Mykolaiv oblast. On background of other oligarchs he looked much better. He didn't exploitate old Soviet actives, he created almost from zero own sucessfull business in shipbuilding, grain storages, grain logistic. He actively sponsored development of Mykolaiv oblast and towns, where he established own enterprises. Since 2014 he actively support UKR army. Of course, he wasn't an angel, because in 90th and further it was impossible to make big money in Ukraine without evading of taxes, corruption and ties with criminals. But if at least half of our reachmen were like Vadaturskyi, we would be live in completely other country.  

I read an opinion, that Vadaturskyi developed new logistic for Ukrainin grain export in war conditions. Hard to say either  his death was deliberated or accidental. Russians shelled Mykolaiv with Smerch or Tornado-S unguided missiles. So doubtly this was precision strike to kill businessman. And on the place of cottadge site, where is Vadaturskyi's house,  in Soviet times located military unit, which was removed and cottadges were built there instead. So, Russians could worked out again with outdated maps. 

Could be as well. RU Nats portray him as main Nazi financier, but we know how they shoot - they never miss because there is always enemy target where they hit.

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🤔 "Yet"

 

@Haiduk;) 

 

10 minutes ago, billbindc said:

KFOR is already established. Serbia is going to get spanked hard if it tries to invade Kosovo and Russia isn’t going to be able to do much about it.

Yeah, thats the astonishing part. The Serbians are about to commit national suicide. Honestly, the only reason that I can come up with as to why the Serbs are about to declare war against NATO, is if they expect Russia or China to do something. If not, I definitively do not understand what is the reasoning that they are making.

Edited by CHEqTRO
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KFOR still exists, I doubt anything will happen in Kosovo.

Let's just move these prisoners out of the actual prisoner area for no reason. I hate that Russia, Wagner, can't even be bothered to try and make it seem that the PoWs we're killed by Ukrainian fire. Just taking the Ukrainians and the West for fools.

 

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1 minute ago, CHEqTRO said:
Yeah, thats the astonishing part. The Serbians are about to commit national suicide. Honestly, the only reason that I can come up with as to why the Serbs are about to declare war against NATO, is if they expect Russia or China to do something. If not, I definitively do not understand what is the reasoning that theya re making.

This is simmering on for months now. Not that much new. Overview Article from 10/2021 here:

Tensions rise at Kosovo border as number plate row escalates | Kosovo | The Guardian

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6 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:
Yeah, thats the astonishing part. The Serbians are about to commit national suicide. Honestly, the only reason that I can come up with as to why the Serbs are about to declare war against NATO, is if they expect Russia or China to do something. If not, I definitively do not understand what is the reasoning that they are making.

Distraction to get NATO to send some equipment to sit in Kosovo that might otherwise be shipped to Ukraine.

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More bad news. Curiosly enough, the Spanish prime minister was on a state visit to Serbia (He literally said yesterday that he hoped that Serbia could join the European Union, and that he supported the Serbs about the Kosovo issue, XD. Link in Spanish:https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/presidente/actividades/Paginas/2022/290722-sanchez_serbia.aspx ) . He was supposedly going to stay until tomorrow. Well, it seems he is going to cut his visit short.

 

 

3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

This is simmering on for months now. Not that much new. Overview Article from 10/2021 here:

Tensions rise at Kosovo border as number plate row escalates | Kosovo | The Guardian

Of course. Just as the Ukranian war was 🤷‍♂️

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On the Navy Day Putin signed new Maritime doctrine. According to it, national interests of Russia spread on whole World ocean and zones of theese interests divided on critical, important and other

Critical: internal sea waters, territorial sea, exclusive econimic zone and it continental shelf, Arctic basin (inclusing Northern Sea Way), Sea of Okhotsk, Russian waters of Caspian sea

Inportant: Black sea, Azov sea, Eastern part of Middeterranian sea, Black Sea passages, Baltic and Kuril passages, areas of world sea traffic lines.    

Russia has "indisputable right" for military presence and using of forces and troops for defending of own national intersts in any point of World Ocean. 

Priorities - development of hi-tech shipbuilding on Far East, including building of air carriers, and large ships and vessels for Arctic mastreing 

Like illustration of theese conceptions - the poster with Navy Day congratulation, which depicts US George Bush class carrier :) 

Зображення

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1 minute ago, chrisl said:

Distraction to get NATO to send some equipment to sit in Kosovo that might otherwise be shipped to Ukraine.

Yeah, that benefits Russia. But Serbia? What do they gain with this? Getting Belgrade flattened again is worth having the Americans distracted?

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4 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Yeah, that benefits Russia. But Serbia? What do they gain with this? Getting Belgrade flattened again is worth having the Americans distracted?

Intelligent political actors always find the obviously losing side and jump in with it.  It's the obvious way to go, no?

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2 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Yeah, that benefits Russia. But Serbia? What do they gain with this? Getting Belgrade flattened again is worth having the Americans distracted?

I'd say not even that, if something happens there NATO will send troops, not old tanks from storage. Damn, you could see that unrest in whole Russian "sphere of influence" is increasing, it's like you cut a boil and all the nastiness is going out...

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11 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Intelligent political actors always find the obviously losing side and jump in with it.  It's the obvious way to go, no?

The Serbian president never came to me as the sharphest tool in the shed, I will give you that. Have you seen the video of the inaguration of some train with Orban? You should search it, I have not seen Orban show such clear discomfort ever.

13 minutes ago, Huba said:

I'd say not even that, if something happens there NATO will send troops, not old tanks from storage. Damn, you could see that unrest in whole Russian "sphere of influence" is increasing, it's like you cut a boil and all the nastiness is going out...

Yeah, the Russians are getting desperate, thats for sure. The serbians appear to have gone mad. Even if the war stays in the borders of Kosovo, it is worth to get their army mangled for esentially nothing? Or I am to shortsighted, or the Serbs are expecting something from the Russians/Chinese. Either that, or they are extremely delusional about western weakness.

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Just now, CHEqTRO said:

Yeah, the Russians are getting desperate, thats for sure. The serbians appear to have gone mad. Even if the war stays in the borders of Kosovo, it is worth to get their army mangled for esentially nothing? Or I am to shortsighted, or the Serbs are expecting something from the Russians/Chinese. Either that, or they are extremely delusional about western weakness.

Serbian president is to address the nation in 2 minutes, let's see what comes out of it. I expect nothing, he'll ask to ignore provocations and that Serbia is not interested in any conflict. Hopefully...

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2 minutes ago, Huba said:

Serbian president is to address the nation in 2 minutes, let's see what comes out of it. I expect nothing, he'll ask to ignore provocations and that Serbia is not interested in any conflict. Hopefully...

Well...

I suppose there is something wrong with traduction, and it doesnt mean the north of Serbia, but rather north, towards Serbia. I would like the official statement thought, as of now I havent found the original source.

 

Being fair, is not the first time the serbian president acusses the kosovars of planning an attack:

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/serbia-says-kosovo-premier-decided-to-attack-serbs/2546239

Edited by CHEqTRO
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Russia is playing another PsyOps. Since Balkans are traditionally viewed as powderkegg fo massive paneuropean conflicts, there will be voices in the West to "stop the World War III" immediatelly. If we observe Russian trolls/tankies/allies being more active following days on propaganda front, we can be pretty confident what is happening.

Unfortunatelly, I am sure at least several editors in "open" newspapers will hook on it.

 

Edited by Beleg85
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I don't know, maybe the Kosovo escalation is part of a bigger plan, that we will see unfolding the next weeks or months. There is some sort of Axis forming, Serbia - Russia - China - Iran and maybe Turkey (that is drifting and drifting away from NATO). A big event like the Ukraine war is unlikely to be isolated and not to cause chain reactions, but I hope we just won't slip into WW3 without even realizing.  

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Here's a very nice thread explaining what it's all about. In short, Kosovan law requiring special documents from Serbians entering Kosovo comes into life today (it is reciprocatory to the same law that Serbia has regarding Kosovan citizens). Kosovan Serbs don't like it and started to make a riot, and it's escalating a bit.

 

Edited by Huba
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4 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I don't know, maybe the Kosovo escalation is part of a bigger plan, that we will see unfolding the next weeks or months. There is some sort of Axis forming, Serbia - Russia - China - Iran and maybe Turkey (that is drifting and drifting away from NATO). A big event like the Ukraine war is unlikely to be isolated and not to cause chain reactions, but I hope we just won't slip into WW3 without even realizing.  

Even late Tom Clancy's ghostwriters were more moderate in their scenarios.

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