How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

43 minutes ago, Grigb said:

The first serious exam (and an elementary comparison with the US wars with Iraq and Yugoslavia) showed the failure to solve a number of important tasks:
- The priority [to] "remove headquarters" (beheading) in Kiev.
- Depriving the enemy of communication, management and propaganda systems (TV studios and large Internet providers have not been destroyed). The AFU and the state apparatus of the enemy have not lost their coherence.
- The destruction of its transport system, which preserved the possibility of supplying the AFU even in "cauldrons". His bridges across the Dnieper remained intact.

In this we are in complete agreement but these are targets it is the failure to achieve effects and translate them into decision points that is the hallmark of the Russian way of war so far.

- Erode and disrupt UA C4ISR - ensure your enemy cannot see, think, react and learn faster/better than you.

- "Make it go dark" - isolate all sectors of a target society by cutting off communications and information nodes leading to a "loss of coherence" or disunity within the enemies Will/conative frameworks.

- Destroy, disrupt and dislocate logistics - the net effect here is that it essentially erodes enemy ability to establish operational tempo, particularly offensive.  This would include cutting western support. [aside: Russian is supposed to be the masters of hybrid and "sneaky" warfare, which leaves me wondering why we have seen no warehouse fires in Poland] 

Problem is, Russia was supposed to do all this before they crossed the start line on 24 Feb.  Trying to do it 5 months in, when your opponent has hardened and built resilience based on national mobilization and international support is nearly impossible.

It has been interesting that the RA has not seemed to be able to come out of their "operational pause" even though they were announcing as such.  A war is like a rock concert in some respects - while the music is pounding and everyone is jumping, it is hard not to get caught up.  But when there is a 30 min break between bands, everyone checks their phones, notices how tired they are as the drugs start to wear off and start looking at the exit - the real danger of an operational pause. 

I think Steve predicted Jun as the breaking point for the RA awhile back but Aug-Sep is starting to sound more likely based on a lot of this.  I am not sure what that "breaking point" might look like, it could be as simple as "no longer able to conduct operational offensives", or it could be bigger.  The thing is, Putin could order total mobilization right now but it likely would not change the conditions the RA is operating under for at least 90-180 days, unless they just start pushing untrained people to the front Stalin-style, at which point my bet is the whole thing will explode in Putin's face.

Edited July 26, 2022 by The_Capt

[Beleg85]

58 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Re: Putin appeasers, IMHO you misread CDU and SPD a little here. Apart from Schröder and friends, I think it was never about Putin but about business. At the risk of greatly oversimplifying things: For the CDU, it is all about German economy. If the guy helps Germany Inc. (big business) he is their friend. SPD was always proud about their Ostpolitik (so, good diplomatic relations with Eastern European countries including Russia) but it is also: If it helps the job situation, the guy is their friend. Not unlike most other Western countries, we happily traded with dictators and autocrats as long as it was profitable.

Ok, thanks for answer. However international relations effect is the same, isn't it? Orban in Hungary is doing just that, "caring" for his own opportunistic interest. And during following crisis I bet many Europeans will look at him as a model statesmen, even if they will be afraid of saying so.

 

Russian mfa is rolling another wave of fresh propaganda for something like a week or two.. After shuffling lies about history of Baltics, Poland and Hungary, making contest who is more "russophobic" (we took first place, but competition was hard !) it is now fully riding again on beautiful, new multipolar world without the West they will create.

https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/1551602257464098817

Also, interesting threah from Hertling. He messed up about artillery before, but seem to be correct now:

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1551668596803358724

 

[billbindc]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I think Steve predicted Jun as the breaking point for the RA awhile back but Aug-Sep is starting to sound more likely based on a lot of this.  I am not sure what that "breaking point" might look like, it could be as simple as "no longer able to conduct operational offensives", or it could be bigger.  The thing is, Putin could order total mobilization right now but it likely would not change the conditions the RA is operating under for at least 90-180 days, unless they just start pushing untrained people to the front Stalin-style, at which point my bet is the whole thing will explode in Putin's face.

I'm pretty certain at this point that a significant block (in addition to reticence among conscripts) to mobilization is that Russia simply can't organize the equipping and arming of a larger mobilization. While it's clear that their capacity to  train is nominal at best, I don't think that would stop the apparat from producing something like the numbers that are being demanded from the center if it were possible gather up some muzhiks, jam them into a uniform and hand them a gun. 

[Butschi]

36 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

The (not just German) Greens have hurt Europe immensly with their anti-nuclear nonsense. They have been such a great boon to both fossil fuel industry and various evil regimes like Russia and the Saudis that it is fair to wonder whether they are paid by any of those.

Honestly, I wonder which reality is more scary, whether the Greens being corrupt or them doing everything because they really think it helps.

Again, I will not take the bait and aggravate Steve by rekindling this discussion. I have a PhD in physics, so when I tell you to challenge your preconceptions and actually check facts, it isn't for any ideological reasons but because I feel qualified to say what is nonsense in that regard and what isn't. 'nough said, let's move on.

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

The (not just German) Greens have hurt Europe immensly with their anti-nuclear nonsense. They have been such a great boon to both fossil fuel industry and various evil regimes like Russia and the Saudis that it is fair to wonder whether they are paid by any of those.

Honestly, I wonder which reality is more scary, whether the Greens being corrupt or them doing everything because they really think it helps.

Indeed. That thought isn't as far fetched as it may sound to some. The peace movement in Europe in the 1980s was highly infiltrated and partly financed by the Soviets and East Germans. Since the Greens have quite a lot of members with a communist background, we can safely assume some are still connected to their old masters.

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Sakhalin OMON officers killed in the HIMARS strike on court house in Lysychansk:

Lt. Col. Oleg Vostrikov

Maj. Alexei Ivanushkin

 

[panzermartin]

I'm sorry but the connection of green movements and environmentalists with Putin and Saudi dictators sounds very trumpish to me and not something I would expect to read in this forum. 

 

[Grigb]

18 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

[aside: Russian is supposed to be the masters of hybrid and "sneaky" warfare, which leaves me wondering why we have seen no warehouse fires in Poland] 

Usual problem with competence. They can organize something where there is a friendly local community and indifferent state. But in hostile Poland it would be nearly impossible for them to operate. Look at their operatives attire

 

 

 

18 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Problem is, Russia was supposed to do all this before they crossed the start line on 24 Feb.  Trying to do it 5 months in, when your opponent has hardened and built resilience based on national mobilization and international support is nearly impossible.

You are looking at it through military lenses analyzing military impact. While they pretend it is for military effect, in reality they are hoping to inflict pain on civilians to force UKR surrender/accept peace deal. There is intense internal debate where opponents say RU should not do it because civilians will suffer too much. Proponents answer that assaulting UKR cities and destroying them will bring more suffering to UKR civilians, so sooner they surrender the less we kill them.

 

18 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

It has been interesting that the RA has not seemed to be able to come out of their "operational pause" even though they were announcing as such.  A war is like a rock concert in some respects - while the music is pounding and everyone is jumping, it is hard not to get caught up.  But when there is a 30 min break between bands, everyone checks their phones, notices how tired they are as the drugs start to wear off and start looking at the exit - the real danger of an operational pause. 

Yes, seems something has gone wrong. So, far I believe we can assume HIMARS caused it. They forced Shell Famine, broke the supply chain and made RU command to run around making C2 difficult. RU had to adapt instead of preparing for the next big push. And that caused another lapse in RU morale. 

 

18 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I think Steve predicted Jun as the breaking point for the RA awhile back but Aug-Sep is starting to sound more likely based on a lot of this.  I am not sure what that "breaking point" might look like, it could be as simple as "no longer able to conduct operational offensives", or it could be bigger.  The thing is, Putin could order total mobilization right now but it likely would not change the conditions the RA is operating under for at least 90-180 days, unless they just start pushing untrained people to the front Stalin-style, at which point my bet is the whole thing will explode in Putin's face.

Sorry, for not being clear - I originally came from twitter and twitter was bit overhyped with possibility of RU collapse as early as May. Anyway, both twitter May and Steve June predictions were correct in essence. We just need to make Pressure Cooker adjustment.

Now, regarding mobilization RU Nats pushing for it for one simple reason - legal cover for them to shoot people they do not like. They want to force total obedience. They believe with gun barrels to heads they would immediately stop 500ths, or make Industry to produce more weapons, or to remove finally corrupt officials. And untrain people they would call to existing units to bolster manpower strength of already experienced units. That's why they want Putin to call mobilization.  

Regarding how it could be, all depends on Kherson offensive - UKR success there signals Putin lead RU weakness. That might even cause armed mutinies with RU units heading toward RU territory to create there analogue of LDNR republics. RU Nats dreamed that LDNR republics would be built according to their ideas (similar to founding US). Putin did not give them that. After defeat attributed to Putin they would really want to do everything from the scratch their way. 

With the situation staying the same they might hold defensively well into September. I cannot think through the scenario (too complex, too many variables) but given constant sapping of their strength UKR force will find weak spot and will force defeat at some point. Then we are back to the scenario above.

[DesertFox]

16 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Indeed. That thought isn't as far fetched as it may sound to some. The peace movement in Europe in the 1980s was highly infiltrated and partly financed by the Soviets and East Germans. Since the Greens have quite a lot of members with a communist background, we can safely assume some are still connected to their old masters.

Yep, the same morons which demonstrated against Pershing II and NATO double-track policy. A lot of those have their roots in the 1968 movements.

Edited July 26, 2022 by DesertFox

[Aragorn2002]

16 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I'm sorry but the connection of green movements and environmentalists with Putin and Saudi dictators sounds very trumpish to me and not something I would expect to read in this forum. 

 

Well, I'm having the same experience with most of your posts, so let's leave it at that.

[Billy Ringo]

15 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I'm sorry but the connection of green movements and environmentalists with Putin and Saudi dictators sounds very trumpish to me and not something I would expect to read in this forum. 

 

I think it would be naive to assume Russian and Saudi interests would not quietly and monetarily support....Russian and Saudi interests in other countries.  You've got a former German PM in Moscow as recently as...today. 

Starting to wonder if Godwin's Law is now being tied to Trump instead of Hitler.

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

I think it would be naive to assume Russian and Saudi interests would not quietly and monetarily support....Russian and Saudi interests in other countries.  You've got a former German PM in Moscow as recently as...today. 

Starting to wonder if Godwin's Law is now being tied to Trump instead of Hitler.

Indeed. It is a big mistake to think that in our times there are less moles and infiltrators than during the Cold War. Such naivity helped to land us in the present mess. Read the history books and the books that lately have been written about Putin, the FSB and traitors in our own ranks.

Edited July 26, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[DesertFox]

12 hours ago, Butschi said:

Ah, very good point. Occam's Razor agrees. That could also explain Mr. Schröder's "vacation" in Moscow. Secret negotiations with e.g. Siemens?

Nope. Siemens Energy finally spilled the beans about the russian lies.

Nord Stream 1: Russlands endlose Turbinen-Saga (handelsblatt.com)

Edited July 26, 2022 by DesertFox

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, Grigb said:

You are looking at it through military lenses analyzing military impact. While they pretend it is for military effect, in reality they are hoping to inflict pain on civilians to force UKR surrender/accept peace deal. There is intense internal debate where opponents say RU should not do it because civilians will suffer too much. Proponents answer that assaulting UKR cities and destroying them will bring more suffering to UKR civilians, so sooner they surrender the less we kill them.

I get the "terror strikes" component to put pressure on the Ukrainian government - problem is, when has "terror" or "shock and awe" ever really worked as strategy?

Human beings are a funny bunch, we exist in imaginary social constructs - nations, provinces, duchies, towns, neighborhoods etc.  We invented these structures to sustain order when our populations expanded well beyond what we were originally designed for - but here is something I have suspected for a long time: we are still wired for our real social structures.  Those few dozen people we are directly linked to by blood or dependency.  

These are little social bubbles - hell in the pandemic we could map them - that comprise the real ocean of humanity.  We actually care about them.  These are the people we go to war for, we also go to work well after we want to for them.  We get dragged to church on Sunday by them and we dress like them, talk them and eat like them.  We buy the same stuff, dress the same way and consume the same information, thru the similar lenses.  We are still really tribal after all this time.

Now the energy in those bubbles is incredibly powerful - like running into a burning building, powerful.  However, it is also incredibly local.  We hunker down in our particular tree and tend to keep our heads down, even when the tree next to us gets chopped down.  It takes a lot to get us all going in the same direction.  We invent all sorts of mechanisms to create and generate power from these little bubbles - the Chinese did a massive and brutal social engineering exercise in the 60's to try and re-build those bubbles in such a way as to give the state all the power...it did not work because people. 

So what? Shock and awe, terror strikes and what not, have an effect but it is 1) very hard to line up in the direction you may want it to go, in fact it might create massive counter pressure (see The Blitz 1940) and 2) getting that effect to translate broadly across and entire macro-social system can be very hard, even impossible under some circumstances. 

Humans are highly unpredictable - I think we talked about 3rd order chaotic systems - and as such lobbing really expensive and limited missiles at them to get them to do anything in concert as a primary strategy...well it is not optimal.  Sociologist have no idea how "Springs, revolutions or movements" really happen.  We can see them easily in hindsight but predicting them ahead of time is nearly impossible right now.  So what magically triggers things like The Crusades or Hippies is really difficult - a sum of pressures and human turbulence that is highly unpredictable, and people have spent empires trying to crack that Riddle of Flesh.  

If Russian power brokers sat down and figured "we will simply hit them with missiles and they will all give up" then they are 1) complete amateurs, and 2) dangerous amateurs who do not really understand the dynamics of application of military power against human-based social structures - s'ok, they are not alone in this. 

My point is that they should have been looking at military impact if they wanted to win a war, and it is likely too late to "get smart" now if they could.   Directly impacting micro-social Will is a game for subversive warfare, not missiles and Russia clearly mis-read what war it was in, and now has to come to terms with how to lose it.

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Again, I will not take the bait and aggravate Steve by rekindling this discussion. I have a PhD in physics, so when I tell you to challenge your preconceptions and actually check facts, it isn't for any ideological reasons but because I feel qualified to say what is nonsense in that regard and what isn't. 'nough said, let's move on.

I don't wish to sidetrack the discussion either, and I will say I respect your credentials (and you, based on your posts in general) so your stance does carry a fair bit of weight with me. However, I do feel it's worth pointing out that a fairly recent Pew survey showed that 79% of physicists (compared to 65% of scientists in general and 45% of American adults) support building more nuclear power plants.

And I will leave it at that, apologies for the slightly tangential post...

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

If Russian power brokers sat down and figured "we will simply hit them with missiles and they will all give up" then they are 1) complete amateurs, and 2) dangerous amateurs who do not really understand the dynamics of application of military power against human-based social structures - s'ok, they are not alone in this. 

This. Also keep in mind that UKR for them are like country fools. Hit them hard enough with the stick and they will run away. They do not have spiritual superiority like RU do. Such undertones are always a factor for RU. 

 

[danfrodo]

35 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

I don't wish to sidetrack the discussion either, and I will say I respect your credentials (and you, based on your posts in general) so your stance does carry a fair bit of weight with me. However, I do feel it's worth pointing out that a fairly recent Pew survey showed that 79% of physicists (compared to 65% of scientists in general and 45% of American adults) support building more nuclear power plants.

And I will leave it at that, apologies for the slightly tangential post...

I am not pro-nuclear power.  But do we have a f--ing choice?  We are baking the planet and need something to get us from fossil fuels to something better.  But something better might take some time. 

I am aware that climate change is a hoax perpetrated by evil scientists and commie politicians.  But what I don't understand is how they convinced all the world's thermometers to start lying also.  

And so we find ourselves being held hostage by a petro-fascist who is disrupting the entire world economy, especially the EU.  Because we didn't take the evil, scheming, lying scientists seriously. 

Edited note:  my current weather:  Monday 97F, today 97F, then 96,96,94,92.  In a place where historicially almost no one even had air conditioning.  And last year we hit ~113F in the famous heat dome incident.  yeah, nothing to see here folks, all just a hoax, dang lying thermometers. 

Edited July 26, 2022 by danfrodo
addition

[poesel]

Germany delivered three MARS II (M270 equiv) and another three PzH2000. 
 

 

[Calamine Waffles]

Quote

If the Armed Forces of Ukraine had OTRK "Grim-2" with a thousand missiles, there would be no hostilities - the spokesman of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Calling for Ukraine to get its own Iskander equivalent

https://defence--ua-com.translate.goog/news/jakbi_zsu_mali_otrk_grim_2_z_tisjacheju_raket_zhodnih_bojovih_dij_ne_bulo_b_rechnik_komanduvannja_ps_zsu-8303.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[Grigb]

Girkin recommended another article. This time it is from Regnum. Girkin says Regnum linked to Hawks from Presidential Executive Office of Russia and shows their opinion. It can be summarized: There is Dove party that want peace deal and spreads thesis that RU tired of war. But nobody, RU or West, wants this peace deal. Everyone wants victory. So, Doves must shut up or else.  

Article is somewhat lengthy but not all part as interesting (Girkin jokes author as paid by lines). So, i will explain boring parts in the list below:

Quote

1. There is a Dove party in RU gov
2. Dove party are heinously corrupted pro-west persons who stole all money and invested it in UKR and EU
3. Because of that they report every day to Putin that RU is tired of war, so, peace and the freezing of conflict is needed
4. This group controls economics, finance and foreign trade.
5. Their counter parts are Military, statesmen and other "siloviki"
6. The war caused the hidden split [between these group] over Donbas and Crimea to come out
7. Tired elites [Doves]are dispersing the thesis about the fatigue of the people, who [with] a little more — and will break out of obedience. About the fatigue of the army, ready to stick bayonets into the ground and rush home from the front, turning these bayonets against the government. About fatigue and confusion in regions where money is taken to the center and loaded with tasks for which neither money nor authority is given. About the fatigue of oligarchs and shopkeepers, directors and clerks, scientists and artists, administrators and philistines, patriots and optimists, doctors and IT specialists.
8. Doves are instrument of Western propaganda
9. The West wants RU to believe that long conflict is good for the West but bad for RU. So, RU has to find a way to quit now, as tomorrow it will be worse. 
10. Hence Dove thesis about tiredness of RU
11. Doves are to blame for slowness of first part of SMO - they fought with hawks and gave west time to supply UKR with long range weapons [HIMARS became scarecrow for RU]
12. It caused RU army problems
13. The west will supply 300 km missiles and will cause even more problems
14. It is not important if this scenario will happen or not. What is important it creates the necessity of peace in RU mind
15.  RU gov realizes it and that's why Lavrov threatens UKR with grabbing even more land - as a response to Western pressure

 

Last part I translated in full as this is the essence of RU Hawks view from Presidential administration. sorry, do not have time to write a summary. 

Quote

As of today, the following is known:

1. Russia is not against the truce, despite its unpopularity among the masses. An announcement was made that there will be an offer of a truce after the liberation of Donbass. This will be an attempt at negotiations where Russia is in a strong position. Despite the fact that in this case denazification and demilitarization will become unattainable and the agreements on them will be violated [by heinous UKR] just like Minsk agreements, no one has the slightest illusions on this topic

Moreover, the strong political crisis will immediately start in Russia: it will not be possible to "sell" the truce as a Victory. It is as if after the Battle of Stalingrad Stalin offered Hitler a truce and signed with him some piece of paper on the denazification and demilitarization of Germany.

2. The West is categorically against a truce on terms where Russia is in a strong position. If victory is not achieved, propaganda begins to lie, and this will cause a crisis in Russia, the West does not believe that in this way it will be [enough] to oust Putin.

It is believed that Putin can resist, as he will present real conquests to RU society, and the truce will be showen as an operational pause for the accumulation of forces. Yes, there will be disputes, but there will be no imminent change of power, and this does not suit the West in its position. It can't risk it anymore.

3. The West believes that it uses time to its advantage, and therefore negotiations are a failure [of the West]. They will secure new borders in Europe. They will not voluntarily sign it, and threats to grab even more [land] will not work on them. After all, if you do not agree [on peace], there is still a chance [to achieve it by war]. And if they sign a truce, then there is no chance anymore. Russia was near Rostov, and became near Kharkov and Odessa. Even if this is not yet a victory for Russia, it is certainly a defeat for the West.

4. Russia is increasingly between two fires: the turbulence of the new perestroika [RU Nats demand reforms] and the threat of rebellion after the lost Victory, which will be spoken of as stolen. If a month ago perestroika seemed to be a greater evil than a further battle for victory, now the big evil is the rejection of the war in favor of a truce. [In case of truce] It will turn out that and goals were not achieved, and sacrifices were in vain, [then] turbulence could not be avoided. Now the truce is not just counterproductive — it is dangerous

Russia will have to really replace the system and the elites [simple coup is not an option anymore, RU society wants reforms], doing it literally on the wheels, drawing projects on the knee. There can be no other way: one Russia entered the war, and five months later another one is leading it. Neither this Russia nor this West needs a truce.

Neither side has achieved its goals, although it has invested in their achievement in full, and therefore there can be no question of any peace in Ukraine. Peace in Ukraine is the question of what kind of Ukraine it will be. The answer to this question is forged on the battlefields and supplied by the rear. If Russia wants to push the front, it will have to change the rear. And to change radically — half-measures will only ruin the country, as they ruined the USSR.

Peace in Ukraine is impossible until the military victory of Russia or the West. It is based on the results of this victory that the fate of Ukraine will be determined, and even more — the fate of Russia and the West. The arguments of the peace party about Russia's fatigue can seriously delay victory and significantly increase its price. They will not be able to cancel this victory, but then they, this tired party, will be the main losers. In the meantime, Russia is tired of them, and they have very little time to understand it.

.[UPDATE] Adding a few important points

• The fight between Doves and Hawks intensifies. They can be called Liberals and Nats of RU gov. As I previously said this looks like a split of future RU Civil War. 
• RU society demands reform so, simple coup with simple heir will not satisfy anybody now.
• RU Nats want to fight till the end. But they do not control Putin
• Death of Putin will cause RU Nats to try to grab the power. This is how I believe the Civil War will start.
• Even if Putin is replaced with RU Nat he will try to force Mobilization and that will cause major rebellion and RU Civil War
• I am bit pessimistic today - I do not see how RU will avoid Civil War. RU Nats want to fight to the victory or death. They will not accept Dove/Liberal ruler peacefully. The question is whether they have the required strength. But it is my personal opinion and I might be wrong.

Edited July 26, 2022 by Grigb

[akd]

Wondering if Russians put together an effort to shut down Dmitri's @mdmitri91 twitter feed, as it is suddenly gone.  There are still translations being posted at wartranslated.com, however.  Thankfully we have @Grigb here also.

Edited July 26, 2022 by akd

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, G.I. Joe said:

I don't wish to sidetrack the discussion either, and I will say I respect your credentials (and you, based on your posts in general) so your stance does carry a fair bit of weight with me. However, I do feel it's worth pointing out that a fairly recent Pew survey showed that 79% of physicists (compared to 65% of scientists in general and 45% of American adults) support building more nuclear power plants.

And I will leave it at that, apologies for the slightly tangential post...

Apologies accepted.

[Grigb]

8 minutes ago, akd said:

Wondering if Russians put together an effort to shut down Dmitri's @mdmitri91 twitter feed, as it is suddenly gone.  There are still translations being posted at wartranslated.com, however.  Thankfully we have @Grigb here also.

It does look suspicious. It is one of the reasons I did not want publicity. 

[danfrodo]

43 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Girkin recommended another article. This time it is from Regnum. Girkin says Regnum linked to Hawks from Presidential Executive Office of Russia and shows their opinion. It can be summarized: There is Dove party that want peace deal and spreads thesis that RU tired of war. But nobody, RU or West, wants this peace deal. Everyone wants victory. So, Doves must shut up or else.  

Article is somewhat lengthy but not all part as interesting (Girkin jokes author as paid by lines). So, i will explain boring parts in the list below:

 

Last part I translated in full as this is the essence of RU Hawks view from Presidential administration. sorry, do not have time to write a summary. 

.[UPDATE] Adding a few important points

• The fight between Doves and Hawks intensifies. They can be called Liberals and Nats of RU gov. As I previously said this looks like a split of future RU Civil War. 
• RU society demands reform so, simple coup with simple heir will not satisfy anybody now.
• RU Nats want to fight till the end. But they do not control Putin
• Death of Putin will cause RU Nats to try to grab the power. This is how I believe the Civil War will start.
• Even if Putin is replaced with RU Nat he will try to force Mobilization and that will cause major rebellion and RU Civil War
• I am bit pessimistic today - I do not see how RU will avoid Civil War. RU Nats want to fight to the victory or death. They will not accept Dove/Liberal ruler peacefully. The question is whether they have the required strength. But it is my personal opinion and I might be wrong.

Wow, this is fascinating.  GrigB, YOU ARE DA MAN!

[dan/california]

 

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

Ok, big article incoming. It is written by infamous RU Nat writer and opinion journalist Maxim Kalashnikov. Girkin strongly recommends to read it. I can summarize it - Big Storm [1917 alike] is coming because everything looks worse than RU gov say. But if you are interested in the point of view RU Nats leadership, I recommend reading it in full.

 

 

Enemy plan for RU is mobilization trap

• RU troops are experiencing fatigue and losing capability to conduct any offensives
• The strength of RU defenses is highly uneven and full of holes
• static fighting and failures at front line will lead to major breakdown of RU war machine
• To win RU has to mobilize but RU gov is scared to start it due to swift drop of popularity and difficulty

 

RU battlefield state is bad

• There is a huge problem of mass refusniks. It is really disturbing for RU
• Unlike Kiev RU apparently do not have strategic reserves
• By the autumn the issue will come out [explode]

 

RU armed forces capabilities are bad

• RU Armed Forces could perform several critical tasks
• While they had enough missiles there were critical failures with drones, ammunition, comms, recce, targeting and control
• These problems must be resolved are quickly as possible

 

RU economy front is bad

• RU did not use gas blackmail enough to bring Eu on its knees
• RU gov is not doing anything to prepare to mitigate bad state of RU industry  

 

RU external and internal position is worsening

• RU is losing respect outside
• RU gov is acting irresponsibly harshly inside

 

Kremlin Endgame is wait till EU Armageddon

• The Kremlin is counting on the fact that the strongest socio-economic and political crises will begin in the West in the autumn and winter of 2022
• It will cause the West to negotiate with RU lifting sanctions and force Kiev to accept peace deal
• However, the above is not given. Also, a global crisis will threaten RU as well. So, RU must expect the worst.

 

Prep talk for the coming Winter RU civil war - summer is last period of calm before the storm.

 

Discussion: RU state is always worse than you think - Art of Anti RU War.   

• As we all remember, back in April-May there was a lot of expectation of impending RU collapse due to mass desertion. It was the right conclusion for a Western-type Army. But as we discussed RU is a pressure cooker. It can hold intact longer than you expect, then it explodes. RU could hold on with tricks until August. Probably it can hold even august as well. But 500ths chickens are coming home to roost RU.  Finally, I need to note that our field agent Murz correctly reported that RU will face major manpower crisis in July-August.
• There are a lot of talks about stalemate and long war. All while neither kremlin nor general RU public are preparing for long war. RU has no appetite for a long war. This is not a narrative but cold hard fact
• RU Nats are fully sensing social explosion as soon as current Autumn. Simple coup is not a big deal now because even if it happens it would not satisfy neither RU Nats nor Liberals (general RU public will simply move to one or another side). It can tear RU apart if RU Nats are strong enough.  However, at this stage we do not know RU Nats real strength and their ability to convert RU social explosion into a full-scale civil war. Remember that RU heart - Moscow is liberal stronghold. USSR military could not handle an uprising there in 91. On other hand RU Liberals are pussies not fighters without appropriate leader.

 

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Girkin recommended another article. This time it is from Regnum. Girkin says Regnum linked to Hawks from Presidential Executive Office of Russia and shows their opinion. It can be summarized: There is Dove party that want peace deal and spreads thesis that RU tired of war. But nobody, RU or West, wants this peace deal. Everyone wants victory. So, Doves must shut up or else.  

Article is somewhat lengthy but not all part as interesting (Girkin jokes author as paid by lines). So, i will explain boring parts in the list below:

 

Last part I translated in full as this is the essence of RU Hawks view from Presidential administration. sorry, do not have time to write a summary. 

.[UPDATE] Adding a few important points

• The fight between Doves and Hawks intensifies. They can be called Liberals and Nats of RU gov. As I previously said this looks like a split of future RU Civil War. 
• RU society demands reform so, simple coup with simple heir will not satisfy anybody now.
• RU Nats want to fight till the end. But they do not control Putin
• Death of Putin will cause RU Nats to try to grab the power. This is how I believe the Civil War will start.
• Even if Putin is replaced with RU Nat he will try to force Mobilization and that will cause major rebellion and RU Civil War
• I am bit pessimistic today - I do not see how RU will avoid Civil War. RU Nats want to fight to the victory or death. They will not accept Dove/Liberal ruler peacefully. The question is whether they have the required strength. But it is my personal opinion and I might be wrong.

A brilliant plan for a short victorious war almost never works out. Doubling down until 80% of your army is drawn in and still losing has a poor prognosis.

Grigb your stuff is priceless as always. I also hope someone, more like several someones, at the relevant three letter agencies is keeping as good an eye on these wanna be Genocidaires as you are. I don't know if the outside world has much ability to influence a Russian civil war, but I suspect we will not have much choice about trying. Ukraine still needs to be supported all the way to victory, winning might be scary but I guarantee that losing is much worse.

I do think this reinforces my theory that most of the Russian moves in Ukraine are now positioning for the after Putin power struggle. Whoever gets the blame for the defeat loses the civil war.