How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russia unpack 2S7 Poin stores in artillery base in Omsk. 

And here some Pions are on the way to Ukraine. I supose, Russians want to use them in counter-battery fire against western howitzers, which often have positions out of the range of Russian artillery

 

They have been using some of them all the way along, I suspect they have worn out the barrels and need to draw new ones just maintain current units. There is a post of one with a burst barrel a few pages back. I also suspect this new draw is in crap shape if they have been stored outdoors.

 

Edited July 25, 2022 by dan/california
dropped a word

[Letter from Prague]

21 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Holly molly, this is "Franz Ferdinand historical moment" (sorry for link to VS24, but this kick is hillarious):

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1551582164428390400

Yes, the kick is hilarious, and Visegrad 24 has the best inflammatory angry posting for comedy value.

Also I don't know what crabgate is, but it sounds delicious.

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

They have been using some of them all the way along, I suspect they worn out the barrels and need to draw new ones just maintain current units. There is a post of one with a burst barrel a few pages back. I also suspect this new draw is in crap shape if they have been stored outdoors.

 

Russian 2S7M Malka with teared off barrel

 

[akd]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

They have been using some of them all the way along, I suspect they worn out the barrels

Yuh think?

 

[Machor]

8 hours ago, Grigb said:

RU mil historian on the current issues of VDV

Summary - RU military finally discovered that their ideas for VDV use are wrong. Parachuting into a combat zone from a transport plane is suicidal. VDV light armor is too light to survive on the modern battlefield.

This was precisely what Panzerkrautswerfer argued at length on this forum several years ago - and against a VDV veteran; I feel privileged to have followed their debate back then.

[Machor]

Ukrainians doing flying MLRS with Czech Mi-24V. When they're flying this low, I feel the need to think in terms of a medium other than 'air' and 'ground' (like 'Eskimos have 50 words for snow' blah blah); reminds me of the special 'nap-of-the-earth' rules in Avalon Hill's MBT and IDF:

And an interesting find: It turns out this 'flying MLRS' was discussed in an NVA Mi-24 manual, so it's not an exotic maneuver that Russians came up with in Syria and Ukrainians copied from them in this war - by extension, former WP Mi-24 pilots should know about it:

 

[riptides]

5 hours ago, dan/california said:

MAybe they have rigged some NATO hardpoints to their Su-25s, but they have been really quiet about it.

Maybe we have a secret stash of Russia or even Brazilian weapons to give.

[Haiduk]

@sburke @Kinophile

Mayor Aleksandr Savelyev, flight commander, pilot of Mi-28N of 487th separate helicopter regiment (Budyonovsk airfield, Stavropol region), 4th AF/AD Army, Southern military district

 

Mayor Roman Grovich, flight commander, was shot down in Mi-35 on 24th Feb over Kyiv reservoir during approach to Hostomel. In his crew also were lost with him mayor Nikolay Buhai (already posted here) and captain Alexey Bel'kov

Mayor Sergey Gorin, VDV

 

Edited July 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[Letter from Prague]

Is the flying MLRS actually effective? I can imagine Russians doing it because someone said "do something!" and this is something that can be done with minimal risk. But Ukrainians don't seem to be the type for that, so is it actually good for something?

 

Also, HIMARS seems to be focusing on AD lately, and now anti-radiation missiles? It seems after Ukraine was provided with anti-tank weapons, IFVs, tanks, artillery, and long range precision stuff, the next capability NATO and Ukraine are trying to enable is going to be aviation. Even if 100 F-16 arrived today, they would be of limited use with Russian AD in the picture. But if that AD gets HIMARSed and HARMed, future planes (or drones or missiles or all of the above) would be much more useful.

 

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Mayor Aleksandr Savelyev, flight commander, pilot of Mi-28N of 487th separate helicopter regiment (Budyonovsk airfield, Stavropol region), 4th AF/AD Army, Southern military district

 

 

I think we had that guy already? I remember the terrible t-shirt.

[Beleg85]

Interesting short clip, shows how qucikly tactics of small quadrocopters is developing. They send another one with pretty decent thermal camera; they seem to move very smoothly together, almost like wingmen.

[panzermartin]

4 hours ago, Mattias said:

Panzermartin. The constant in your posts on this subject, as far as I have seen, is that you make no firm claims that you back up with facts. You merely apply a constant pressure of “what if”, “what about”, “maybe”. When you have been called out here you have back off, graciously waving a hand - “oh I was only voicing a thought - but I do understand your opinion”. But you don’t qualify your opinion, instead you merely shift focus - sliding sideways.

Personally I am immensely grateful for this forum precisely because it is not defined by people posting half baked opinions and then just leaving them. Instead real facts, as good as we can get them, are being weighed and analysed, and informed conclusions/assumptions made from from that.

The thing is, in July 2022 we are now beyond talking nice and moral ambiguities with russia . This is full on Germany 1939 with all the bells and whistles. We see all the signs of violent authoritarianism, in what is being said and in whats is being done. That really is all there is to it. How russia, and it’s supporters, rationalises it’s actions is now irrelevant, it is merely the words of a abuser/killer in action. Talking about justice for the perpetrator in that context is to insult and co-abuse the victims.

If I may suggest, or indeed urge: Take a stand, for or against - completely. This is now, or will be, a matter of supporting or opposing the 21st century equivalent of Nazi Germany. It defines you in the eyes of others.

And by the way, showing a “generous understanding” for the opponent’s strong emotions, his/her “personal” side, is front and center in the textbook of social media tactics. I mean, we all know that “hysterics” can not possibly be correct. So lets really highlight that bit in in the mass of facts that the other party produces.

Over and out.

Thanks for the post. Sometimes when I write here I get a lot of replies I can't follow. I feel like I'm shot from different directions, so sometimes I have to leave a debate unresolved or like waving hand as you say. It's really exhausting sometimes. 

The fact I'm posting here and not in some pro russian forum tells me that I can sense where I mostly belong. But I like to challenge the dominant line. I did this with the Iraq War here when everyone was going Gung ho, and you can't imagine the flak I took. Everyone was so certain about the WMD the AL qaeda links and so on, only to accept some years later that they were wrong. Bush Jr was joking as well and life went on as usual. And people were again posting facts, excel sheets, analysis from reliable sources but nobody predicted the mess that followed. So, whatever firm facts we are looking for, might not be that firm sometimes. 

But I still come here, because it is still one of the best sources of info on the internet about the war. I'm sorry that I'm not contributing to that so much. I have been posting since 2002 here and I appreciate that despite heated discussions from the Iraq war, to Gaza, Syria and Ukraine I was allowed to voice my half baked opinion. 

 

 

[chuckdyke]

8 hours ago, dan/california said:

Steve can spend the next one hundred years pointing out that the AI may be awful, but it is better than actual Russian officers.

putin tries to bribe Battle Front designers to join their militia. 

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Butschi said:

No, I really think the Kremlin dropped the ball on this one. My take is, there are three possible reasons:

1. Putin et al. are really getting delusional and now believe their own propaganda. Far from impossible but frankly this is my least favourite answer just because were are sometimes way to close to become this echo chamber where it is awesome, competent west vs. incompetent stupid Russia. I prefer to overestimating my opponent over underestimating him.
2. This has nothing to do with us. It is a show entirely for the home front, to show the people the Kremlin is in control.
3. They want to keep the money flowing in the long term: Off the top of my head, there is a substantial minimum payment clause for at least 20 years (?). Germany has already said that they want to get rid of the dependency on Russsian gas, so in the long run they won't sell more than that, anyway. But that money will only get paid if the contract is upheld. We have told the Russians the several times that they have to honour the contract, so we can't very well just break it. The only way to get around that is either Russia violates the contract or there is a general gas embargo. The latter is not likely to come any time soon, the former... well, the Russians keep delivering the stuff but due technical problems, maintenance, you name it they just can't send enough. That way they hurt us some but retain some long term trade income.

Sounds too constructed? Just my thoughts.

Interesting takes. I would hit for 2. Similarly to grain deal- make a deal, and break immediatelly just to show I can. If I can afford to break it, it underlines who is alfa male in the pack. Strange logic from western perspective, but lately whole world of Russian politics is probably constantly on vodka, drugs and swimming in neon lights anyway...

Or it can be part of some bigger plan with appeasers in the West. On side note, I saw some info lately that Schroeder is regularly flying into Moskow again. Perhaps whole operation may be linked to that? I bet business links with energy giants are much more rooted than just this guy, Kretshmer or similar creatures. And they are not easily severed, even if there is a political will.

Do you think current consensus in German political elites have a chance to survive the winter?

Edited July 25, 2022 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

37 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Interesting takes. I would hit for 2. Similarly to grain deal- make a deal, and break immediatelly just to show I can. If I can afford to break it, it underlines who is alfa male in the pack. Strange logic from western perspective, but lately whole world of Russian politics is probably constantly on vodka, drugs and swimming in neon lights anyway...

Or it can be part of some bigger plan with appeasers in the West. On side note, I saw some info lately that Schroeder is regularly flying into Moskow again. Perhaps whole operation may be linked to that? I bet business links with energy giants are much more rooted than just this guy, Kretshmer or similar creatures. And they are not easily severed, even if there is a political will.

Do you think current consensus in German political elites have a chance to survive the winter?

 

The alternative theory is that Germany will have a NEW political elite by spring. The greens have a golden opportunity to become the biggest party in Germany by going 100% anti-Putin and pro nuclear, While branding Scholz's party as outright traitors. Schroder is in Berlin doing the heavy lifting for them as I type. There is no need to lie when the truth is damning.

And yes the pro nuclear bit is huge reversal for the greens, but they can lay out the actual facts. Global warming and Vladimir Putin are a LOT more dangerous than nuclear power. Just look at how much better off the French are in this mess with an ~80% nuclear grid.

[dan/california]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/25/us/politics/china-taiwan-biden-pelosi.html

Put  a Marine division on the Island, now, TODAY. Ukraine happened because we were afraid to commit before the start of hostilities. Let's not make the same mistake twice. Absolutely NONE of the pre 2./24 questions about Ukraines government, or governance apply here. Indeed I would argue it is one of the better run and most democratic countries in the world. Oh yeah, and a war there will wreck the global economy COMPLETELY. So maybe we want to get ahead of the problem this time.

[Butschi]

20 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Or it can be part of some bigger plan with appeasers in the West.

As I said, if that is Putins plan, I don't understand it. I maybe wrong in reading the mood of my fellow countrymen. There are a few pro-Putin people and many more of the "my own prosperity comes first" faction. But everyone with more than a one-digit IQ can see Putin is playing with us. He'd have to act nice and reasonable towards us and honour agreements...

 

35 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I saw some info lately that Schroeder is regularly flying into Moskow again. Perhaps whole operation may be linked to that? I bet business links with energy giants are much more rooted than just this guy, Kretshmer or similar creatures. And they are not easily severed, even if there is a political will.

Yeah, I read he was intercepted by a journalist near the Rosneft HQ, acting all innocent and saying he was there on holidays. I doubt he is there in any political function. He is a real pariah among politicians by now. He was called "Genosse der Bosse" (comrade of the bosses) for a reason, though and for some companies there is really a lot of money involved (BASF being the main culprit). So maybe he is on a mission for German big business.

44 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Do you think current consensus in German political elites have a chance to survive the winter?

Now that is the 1 million dollar question, ain't it? So if I had to bet, I'd say yes. It depends on how much pressure the German industry can apply - if it is even interested in still doing business with Putin. Currently I'd say there will be a change in regulation that allows deprioritizing private customers (heating) in favour of system relevant companies (the being defined as inconsistent as always) at the price of a deepening rift in society because the freezing will be done by the poor. Or my chrystal ball is off, again.

[Butschi]

29 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The greens have a golden opportunity to become the biggest party in Germany by going 100% anti-Putin and pro nuclear

Nice try, not going to happen. In case you hadn't noticed, the vast majority of Germans is against nuclear power. (Good!)

The Greens may grudgingly agree to prolong the usage of the last fuel rods but that's it. I will not take the bait and rekindle the nuclear power discussion here...

 

Edited July 26, 2022 by Butschi

[dan/california]

14 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Nice try, not going to happen. In case you hadn't noticed, the vast majority of Germans is against nuclear power. (Good!)

The Greens may grudgingly agree to prolong the usage of the last fuel rods but that's it. I will not take the bait and rekindle the nuclear power discussion here...

 

 

We will see if that opinion survives France having a warm and comfortable winter.

[Machor]

2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Is the flying MLRS actually effective? I can imagine Russians doing it because someone said "do something!" and this is something that can be done with minimal risk. But Ukrainians don't seem to be the type for that, so is it actually good for something?

Judge for yourself - I think, yes, and that seemed to be the consensus here when I posted this, as well as with the comments on Twitter: 

There's also this unique advantage that you can fire the rockets at a very high angle, to overcome deep trenches:

 

[akd]

5 minutes ago, Machor said:

There's also this unique advantage that you can fire the rockets at a very high angle, to overcome deep trenches:

They fire at 30 degree angle up typically, which is not much different than ground MLRS for a typical mission.  I don't think this is a factor at all.  There's really no advantage versus a direct attack, just the reduction in risk from AD.  Versus ground MLRS, there is increased mobility and responsiveness, but probably some increase in spread around target.

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Allegidly situation around Novoluhanske and power plant. There is opinion that Russians are so desperately assaulting the power plant, because can't to breakthrough to Semyhirya from M03 road. Their attacks constantly repel near Vershyna village. The coming to Semyhirya can open to Russians minor, but useful road, leading to the road on Bakhmut

Russians are attacking this 11 km front in Novoluhanske area from the south and from the east by forces of DPR (elements of 5th MRB "Oplot", 11th MRR "Vostok", tank battalion "Dizel" and artillery brigade "Kolchuga" (former "Kalmius")). Russians represented with BTGs of 127th MRD, 57th MRB, 40th naval infantry brigade and 336th naval infantry brigades.

It seems to be very wide mix of of units attacking in such narrow area; they probably resort to using ad hoc battlegroups. They will probably try to turn it into another Zolotye.

Is it me or there are far less photos from Donbas frontilne now than 3 weeks ago? It's hard to even find a decent video/report from that area. I hope it is good sign.

38 minutes ago, Butschi said:

So maybe he is on a mission for German big business.

Unfortunatelly it seems very probable. Chemicals, energetics and partly banking sectors are too deep into business with Russia to cut this off. Maybe defence industry will be less problematic (they will undoubtedly benefit from war) but from my very shallow understanding how decision-making is done in Germany, they are much less powerful than let's say in US.

[billbindc]

5 hours ago, Butschi said:

3. They want to keep the money flowing in the long term: Off the top of my head, there is a substantial minimum payment clause for at least 20 years (?). Germany has already said that they want to get rid of the dependency on Russsian gas, so in the long run they won't sell more than that, anyway. But that money will only get paid if the contract is upheld. We have told the Russians the several times that they have to honour the contract, so we can't very well just break it. The only way to get around that is either Russia violates the contract or there is a general gas embargo. The latter is not likely to come any time soon, the former... well, the Russians keep delivering the stuff but due technical problems, maintenance, you name it they just can't send enough. That way they hurt us some but retain some long term trade income.

 

4. Maybe Russia is having a hard time keep the gas flowing because sanctions are hurting their ability to maintain their energy industry output while they really, really need the money. That would explain the seeming schizophrenia of their behavior. They want to sell the gas, are having hard time maintaining the flow and don't want to admit it. 

[Machor]

23 minutes ago, akd said:

They fire at 30 degree angle up typically, which is not much different than ground MLRS for a typical mission.  I don't think this is a factor at all.

What is your take on the video that is in my second past post that I linked to? - Those Ukrainian Mi-8s seem to be firing almost vertically for a reason. (A less interesting explanation would be that they were loitering too close to their target when they were called in.)

[MSBoxer]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/25/us/politics/china-taiwan-biden-pelosi.html

Put  a Marine division on the Island, now, TODAY. Ukraine happened because we were afraid to commit before the start of hostilities. Let's not make the same mistake twice. Absolutely NONE of the pre 2./24 questions about Ukraines government, or governance apply here. Indeed I would argue it is one of the better run and most democratic countries in the world. Oh yeah, and a war there will wreck the global economy COMPLETELY. So maybe we want to get ahead of the problem this time.

1/4 of our Marines?  if we go that far then let's also lease a naval base.

[acrashb]

46 minutes ago, akd said:

They fire at 30 degree angle up typically, which is not much different than ground MLRS for a typical mission.  I don't think this is a factor at all.  There's really no advantage versus a direct attack, just the reduction in risk from AD.  Versus ground MLRS, there is increased mobility and responsiveness, but probably some increase in spread around target.

From a recently-posted video analysis, it seems that the advantage is about one more kilometer of range (so from 4 to 5 km range, IIRC).  CEP goes to ~100 meters from some smaller number.  I'm not going to re-watch the video; if these aren't accurate someone else will respond.
From the video, the release of the rockets is now automated which makes them more accurate than spray-and-pray by hand.

The video made the case that it was a damned expensive launching platform vs. MRLS.  But if you have a hammer, the world looks like a nail, and it gets the RA air force in the indirect blowing-things-up campaign.