How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kraze]

Poor russian stepmother that is clearly not a supporter of evil putin's regime cries over her untimely stepson's death who was forced to go and kill Ukrainians by the evil putin:

1. "they gave us money only for the coffin and a monument". How a russian family struggles to get any compensation for the death of a soldier?

 

2. "never hurt anyone in his life, why him?"

3. Fridge with a Ukrainian warranty ad sticker, clearly looted by the evil putin himself.

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Why Giving Ukraine F-16s Makes Sense
https://podcast.silverado.org/episodes/analysis-of-the-war-in-ukraine-july-17-2022

• F16 is very doable (if stated 6month ago we would be very close already)
• Escalation risks are being proven false. Now to a level without doubt
• long terms supply must be started. Aid so far is very short term. Nobody can efficiently manage a zoo of equipment long term

Poland, just across the border  is an operator since 20 years, we should have a moderate support base for the Viper. And a bunch of angry guys who sound Ukrainian to an untrained Russian ear...

[Grigb]

Parsing RU news found example of RU gov dealing with those who dare to tell the truth. Quote from RU opposition politician Ilya Yashin. He was arrested recently.

Quote

6. The essence of the charge against me is as follows. On April 7, during a three-hour stream, I showed a fragment of a BBC report from the Ukrainian city of Bucha, where local residents talked about the war crimes of Russian soldiers. These shots are regarded by the investigation as "staged and [it is clear] provocation by the Kiev regime," because it is said so in the official statement of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation (the statement is attached to the case). But here's the funny thing: the [my] materials also indicate that I myself quoted this statement of the Ministry of Defense on the stream.

After all, I tried to work according to the classical standards of journalism. Here is the position of one side, here is the position of the other. Think, dear viewers, analyze, draw conclusions.

"What is the crime here, even according to your crazy laws, if after the BBC story there is a quote with the statement of the [RU] Ministry of Defense?" I asked Kucherov [FSB operative who deals with dissenters].

"Well, Ilya Valeryevich, you didn't say later that you agreed with this statement, did you?" — the lieutenant colonel explained.

This is my "crime", so that you understand: I did not say that I agreed with the statement of the Ministry of Defense. Article 207.3 part 2 of clause "d" of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. Up to 10 years in prison.

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

[kraze]

20 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Parsing RU news found example of RU gov dealing with those who dare to tell the truth. Quote from RU opposition politician Ilya Yashin. He was arrested recently.

 

So poetic justice from a regime he was a strong supporter of.

Yashin is a known russian fascist that for many years claimed that Ukraine is a Nazi country where "in Kyiv on every step a Nazi uniform is being sold, Nazi flags are everywhere". He basically did everything to help putin create a propagandist image of bad and evil Ukraine that has to be punished.

And now he got what was coming to him for a long time.

I hope all the other "opposition" politicians like him will follow in his steps.

Edited July 18, 2022 by kraze

[Beleg85]

53 minutes ago, kraze said:

3. Fridge with a Ukrainian warranty ad sticker, clearly looted by the evil putin himself.

Interesting. If he managed to steal and send this bulky fridge home before he was killed he indeed was a good stepson. Also, soldier who never hurt anyone in his life is a joke in itself.

Now I won't embedd as to not overcrowd the page but look at what you can buy for "coffin money" if youur son was killed. Good business...

https://twitter.com/NikaMelkozerova/status/1548999296745459713

 

Edited July 18, 2022 by Beleg85

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Maxim Potemin, pilot in unknown unit:

Maj. Artyom Reutov, artillery officer in a Naval Infantry unit?

 

[Grigb]

Fresh Girkin Assessment

• Sumy front fragmentary reports of some activities RU forces
• Seversk is not taken
• Avdiivka repeated unsuccessful RU attack defeated mostly by UKR arty
• Zaporozhye front no info
• Kherson front intense artillery duels
• Donetsk front RU attempts to silence UKR arty without much progress
• In general, the operational pause continues

Quote

On the situation at the front:

[Sumy front] There are fragmentary reports of some activities of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the Sumy direction. The scale and depth of the operation (apparently aimed at preventing further shelling of the territory of the Russian Federation) is not yet known to me, as are the specific priority goals. In any case, we are talking about a tactical operation with limited objectives.

[Seversk] Bravura reports about the liberation of Seversk and the entry of our units to the outskirts of Soledar turned out to be a "duck". Seversk is still mostly in the hands of the enemy. Local battles continue with attempts to advance at the tactical level.

[Avdiivka] During the last 3 days north of Avdiivka, the DPR Armed Forces have been trying to build on the successes of a month ago (as I have repeatedly noted - interrupted for the transfer of forces to the Lisichansk direction). Attacks on the settlement of Kamenka are stably thrown back by the enemy due to the extremely small number of forces sent into the attack by "battalions" of the NM DNR ("worn down to [few] percent of the regular strength") . And also because of the lack of operational artillery support on the battlefield. The enemy repels attempts to attack with almost just artillery fire. Today, as far as it is reported, attempts at attacks continue, although to the attackers themselves (those who are directly under enemy fire) the negative result of the efforts is clear in advance.

[Zaporozhye front]I have no fresh information on the Zaporozhye front.

[Kherson front] On the Kherson front, there is a fierce exchange of rocket and artillery strikes, during which both sides suffer sensitive losses. Judging by the intensity, the main battles of the "third Effective stage of the SMO" are expected here.

[Donetsk front] Donetsk, Stakhanov, Makeyevka, Gorlovka and a number of other LDPR settlements are still subjected to regular shelling, despite attempts by artillery and aviation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to suppress enemy batteries.

In general, the operational pause continues. Both sides are finishing preparations for the upcoming battles. Perhaps each is "waiting for the first move" from the opponent.

It looks like a victory offensive will happen in Kherson. RU reinforcing positions might be cover for getting forces there for the offensive. 

Edited July 18, 2022 by Grigb

[hcrof]

Grigb thanks for all the great material today! Do you think RU is going to push out of Kherson or are they just preparing for a UA offensive?

[Grigb]

New big rant from Murz.

It is really big and not that useful. The main idea is that new RU MO volunteer battalions are just cannot fodder (Captain Obvious, yes. But Murz is talking to the lowest level of RU Nats). They are light infantry without much support and questionable combat capabilities. When RU MOD sends them to battle it will be the new Verden. 

Relevant for us quotes:

Manpower state

Quote

General personnel situation as of now:

The People's Militia of the Republics, the “contractors” of the NM of the LPR and the DPR, with the middle and senior command staff, who had been carrying the war since 2014, with Mobilized added in February, suffered heavy losses, [only] partially replenished by reservists.

Regiments and battalions of mobilized reservists, manned by reserve command personnel, also suffered heavy losses, which there is no one to make up for – in the Republics they have already raked out all the peasants who are at least somewhat fit for war.

All sorts of newly recruited PMCs, who did not become 500th [Refusniks] yet (of which there were quite a few), are also very shabby, [and] looking for people.

"Wagner", who still had a certain personnel selection, are also pretty battered, looking for people.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation... a lot of equipment has been destroyed, heavy losses in manpower in many parts, a lot of “500th“,  they are carrying on for a while on the fact that they are putting up "combat groups” consisting of approximately reinforced battalions with artillery from brigades or divisions.

This is how RU pressure cooker looks inside. 

How RU tries to solve manpower problem

Quote

We have terribly ****ed-up troops of several different recruitment formats, which would be good to replenish. There is a hell of a shortage of specialists in these troops (including, first of all, normal signalmen and Drone operators), a monstrous shortage of modern communications equipment, combat optics and electronics. What are we doing? Right! Instead of reasonably replenishing them, thereby dramatically raising their combat capability and the efficiency of using manpower resources, we are creating new packs of more and more exactly the same inferior troops. Some are without experience, some are without communication, UAVs and optics, and some are without both…

 

Infantry close battle [Captain Obvious but still]

Quote

Because infantry assault actions are not about rushing forward, firing a machine gun from the hip. This is about how, going after the firing barrage, to call fire on the enemy firing points coming to life, extinguish them and finish off machine gunners and AGSnik [already] stunned by close bursts. And the romance of hand-to-hand combat with sapper blades and stilettos, you know where to shove it. Assault is the delegation of firepower management of a senior chief to the lowest level. Whoever does not train it to the right level will simply die uselessly in the battles of the near future.

 

Murz opinion of overall result

Quote

You look at it all and think, “But the historical process doesn't care what exactly we have here. Conscious or unconscious sabotage. High treason or craving to defraud budgets. The activities of espionage or crooks. Historical process cares [only] about result, and it will be disappointing.”

 

[Taranis]

To sum-up the video : Beyond bad tactics and lack of training, the lack of anticipation caused a lack of APS and of TI-sights which could have helped to reduce the losses

[Grigb]

56 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Grigb thanks for all the great material today! Do you think RU is going to push out of Kherson or are they just preparing for a UA offensive?

• AFAIR Kadyrov some time ago announced that after liberation of LNR (that recently finished) there will be third [decisive] stage of SMO. This is what Girkin calls the third Effective stage of the SMO. Obviously, you cannot be Effective/Decisive if you just defend. 
• I am of the opinion that RU is planning to offer a peace deal. But to do that they need to force UKR to the table. We have not seen that push yet. It could be missile strikes or a big push out.
• RU Nat boastful behavior and constant hints that something bad for UKR is coming again point to either massed missile terror strike or push out
• The US embassy looks like it is closed (have not checked it personally) and advised to leave UKR. Again, it could be missile strikes or push toward Kiev
• Finally, LDNR population (and LDNR mobilized) are demanding to create 100 km buffer zone in front of LDNR. It is the minimum goal to keep LDNR politically stable.  

So, I would say they are going for a major push à la Second Ardennes offensive. But I am not sure where. Girkin says it is Kherson due to intensity of arty battles. But I have no opinion as I haven't seen anything that explicitly points to direction yet.

[akd]

This is said to be from Russian drone feed.  Shows a mix of sensor-fused munitions and regular HE:

 

[Grigb]

About that fridge in RU with UKR warranty story. RU declared the whole video (made by a well know RU blogger) as UKR fake citing the sticker as the proof (meaning it was filmed in UKR not RU). 

And for the reference reality could be very boring - There is a RU site for public review of different things. This is a review of a fridge published on 21.08.2020. It says: "We bought this device in 2013 in a large chain store. The delivery cost only 10,899 rubles. They brought it with a warranty card in Ukrainian, the sticker about the two-year warranty was also in Ukrainian, although we live in Russia."

Here is a photo of the sticker.

 

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

Parsing RU news found example of RU gov dealing with those who dare to tell the truth. Quote from RU opposition politician Ilya Yashin. He was arrested recently.

 

 

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

Fresh Girkin Assessment

• Sumy front fragmentary reports of some activities RU forces
• Seversk is not taken
• Avdiivka repeated unsuccessful RU attack defeated mostly by UKR arty
• Zaporozhye front no info
• Kherson front intense artillery duels
• Donetsk front RU attempts to silence UKR arty without much progress
• In general, the operational pause continues

It looks like a victory offensive will happen in Kherson. RU reinforcing positions might be cover for getting forces there for the offensive. 

 

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

New big rant from Murz.

It is really big and not that useful. The main idea is that new RU MO volunteer battalions are just cannot fodder (Captain Obvious, yes. But Murz is talking to the lowest level of RU Nats). They are light infantry without much support and questionable combat capabilities. When RU MOD sends them to battle it will be the new Verden. 

Relevant for us quotes:

Manpower state

This is how RU pressure cooker looks inside. 

How RU tries to solve manpower problem

 

Infantry close battle [Captain Obvious but still]

 

Murz opinion of overall result

 

Grigb this is just priceless info, many thanks.

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Grigb said:

Ru talks indeed indicate their intent is to hold Kherson. 

It is not just propaganda. While their max goal is destruction of UKR they do not plan to capture all of UKR. The realistic goal is to cut UKR from Black Sea and create land corridor to Transnistria. The western part of UKR is considered too hostile to RU, so they dream Poland will annex it (because they are heinous foreigners). And while Kiev region capture is desirable it is not strongly necessary - after RU and Poland cut significant portions of UKR land remaining UKR will cease to exist as independent nation. 

But the whole plan rests on RU ability to hold Kherson. Either they hold Kherson, or the war is lost because practically they will be back to where they started - extended LDNR does not help much in advancing toward Transnistria.

Exactly this!  The importance of Kherson is threefold:

1. It's the only major city that Russia holds.  Losing it is a huge black eye.  The losses necessary to hold it are acceptable to high command.
2. It's likely the Russians are privately realistic about their chances of taking the rest of the Black Sea coast by amphibious assault or a contested crossing of the Dnepr.  Those chances are less than zero.  Therefore, any dreams of moving further westward to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea require starting from Kherson.  Even if that's 10 years from now.
3. The closer Ukraine's forces are to the western bank of the Dnepr in this area, the more options they have to make Russia's ability to supply water to Crimea more problematic.  Realistically Ukraine could cut it off today if it wanted to thanks to HIRAMS, so from a practical standpoint this particular reason is obsolete.  However, knowing Russian military mentality, they won't want to admit this reality.

Russia has a lot of problems if it moves its Kherson supply depots over to the eastern side of the river.  This means Ukraine has an easy opportunity to cut off the forces on the western bank from supplies.  Think about how long Russia could put up a meaningful defense if its forces have access to only a day or two's worth of supplies when the bridge goes boom (or at least is under constant bombardment.

In this scenario, due to ranges, Russian artillery on the eastern bank won't be of much use until the battle on the western side is already decided.  Therefore, Russia must maintain significant stores of supplies (ammo in particular) on the western bank, well within reach of Ukraine's artillery.  And that means we're going to see more big booms in the Kherson area over the coming weeks.

 

Special shout out to JonS for his WAG about what Russia has to stockpile and where.  This is extremely relevant to the points above.  Russia basically has to keep at least a Division's worth of supplies on the western bank, if not a Corps' worth.  That's a lot of juicy targets which will increasingly be in range of precision guided NATO 155mm artillery and other systems.  HIRAMS won't be necessary.

Steve

[keas66]

Do we have any recent estimates of the forces lining up in Kherson ? If the RuA is scrapping the barrel already - what exactly are they going to lead a  "Watch am Rhine"  offensive with ??

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Exactly this!  The importance of Kherson is threefold:

1. It's the only major city that Russia holds.  Losing it is a huge black eye.  The losses necessary to hold it are acceptable to high command.
2. It's likely the Russians are privately realistic about their chances of taking the rest of the Black Sea coast by amphibious assault or a contested crossing of the Dnepr.  Those chances are less than zero.  Therefore, any dreams of moving further westward to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea require starting from Kherson.  Even if that's 10 years from now.
3. The closer Ukraine's forces are to the western bank of the Dnepr in this area, the more options they have to make Russia's ability to supply water to Crimea more problematic.  Realistically Ukraine could cut it off today if it wanted to thanks to HIRAMS, so from a practical standpoint this particular reason is obsolete.  However, knowing Russian military mentality, they won't want to admit this reality.

Russia has a lot of problems if it moves its Kherson supply depots over to the eastern side of the river.  This means Ukraine has an easy opportunity to cut off the forces on the western bank from supplies.  Think about how long Russia could put up a meaningful defense if its forces have access to only a day or two's worth of supplies when the bridge goes boom (or at least is under constant bombardment.

In this scenario, due to ranges, Russian artillery on the eastern bank won't be of much use until the battle on the western side is already decided.  Therefore, Russia must maintain significant stores of supplies (ammo in particular) on the western bank, well within reach of Ukraine's artillery.  And that means we're going to see more big booms in the Kherson area over the coming weeks.

 

Special shout out to JonS for his WAG about what Russia has to stockpile and where.  This is extremely relevant to the points above.  Russia basically has to keep at least a Division's worth of supplies on the western bank, if not a Corps' worth.  That's a lot of juicy targets which will increasingly be in range of precision guided NATO 155mm artillery and other systems.  HIRAMS won't be necessary.

Steve

So "political necessity" is going to push the Russians to complete military, and perhaps regime, failure as they try to hold onto and or expand their position on the west side of the Dnipro? Because unless they have a counter to things the Ukrainians ALREADY HAVE, much less things they might have soon, that position is not sustainable.

[cesmonkey]

This retired UK Air Marshall is in favor of giving the Ukranians F-16s vs other Western types because:

1. There are plentiful numbers in reserve that wouldn't take away from existing Western capabilities.

2. They are relatively simple to operate. He speculates the Ukraines could be trained up to a minimum standard in 6 weeks.

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Do we have any recent estimates of the forces lining up in Kherson ? If the RuA is scrapping the barrel already - what exactly are they going to lead a  "Watch am Rhine"  offensive with ??

According to UKR (and confirmed by CIT) RU is forming Third Army Corps based on Mulino (AFAIR considered the best RU training base)

Quote

According to available data, the formation of the 3rd army corps of up to 15.5 thousand military personnel with a permanent deployment point in Mulino (Nizhny Novgorod region) is underway in the western military district. The approximate deadline for the completion of tasks is August 15 of this year. It is possible that, if necessary, units and military units from the established army corps may be involved in the offensive on Kiev," Pavlyuk stressed.

Plus, volunteer battalions but I do not know the total number. So, let's say we are talking about 20 thousand fresh troops. However, if information regarding transfer of refuseniks to the front line is right then we could go up to 25 thousand.

 

[danfrodo]

27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Exactly this!  The importance of Kherson is threefold:

1. It's the only major city that Russia holds.  Losing it is a huge black eye.  The losses necessary to hold it are acceptable to high command.
2. It's likely the Russians are privately realistic about their chances of taking the rest of the Black Sea coast by amphibious assault or a contested crossing of the Dnepr.  Those chances are less than zero.  Therefore, any dreams of moving further westward to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea require starting from Kherson.  Even if that's 10 years from now.
3. The closer Ukraine's forces are to the western bank of the Dnepr in this area, the more options they have to make Russia's ability to supply water to Crimea more problematic.  Realistically Ukraine could cut it off today if it wanted to thanks to HIRAMS, so from a practical standpoint this particular reason is obsolete.  However, knowing Russian military mentality, they won't want to admit this reality.

Russia has a lot of problems if it moves its Kherson supply depots over to the eastern side of the river.  This means Ukraine has an easy opportunity to cut off the forces on the western bank from supplies.  Think about how long Russia could put up a meaningful defense if its forces have access to only a day or two's worth of supplies when the bridge goes boom (or at least is under constant bombardment.

In this scenario, due to ranges, Russian artillery on the eastern bank won't be of much use until the battle on the western side is already decided.  Therefore, Russia must maintain significant stores of supplies (ammo in particular) on the western bank, well within reach of Ukraine's artillery.  And that means we're going to see more big booms in the Kherson area over the coming weeks.

 

Special shout out to JonS for his WAG about what Russia has to stockpile and where.  This is extremely relevant to the points above.  Russia basically has to keep at least a Division's worth of supplies on the western bank, if not a Corps' worth.  That's a lot of juicy targets which will increasingly be in range of precision guided NATO 155mm artillery and other systems.  HIRAMS won't be necessary.

Steve

and this all gets back to whether RU forces would be cut off if the bridge & dam were sufficiently interdicted.  I would love to see a nice reverse-stalingrad situation.  It would be especially fun to watch how RU state TV spins it.  This whole thing smells like a trap being set by UKR.  Putin believes he must, politically, keep Kherson.  And that makes him vulnerable to manipulation and defeat.

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, dan/california said:

So "political necessity" is going to push the Russians to complete military, and perhaps regime, failure as they try to hold onto and or expand their position on the west side of the Dnipro? Because unless they have a counter to things the Ukrainians ALREADY HAVE, much less things they might have soon, that position is not sustainable.

No different than any other part of the front

We can see the Russian Kharkiv counter-counter offensive quickly ran out of steam and has been doing nothing more than grinding its own forces.  It's possible that even the rumored reinforcements into the area aren't going to amount to much, even though these BTGs (2 IIRC) are standing units, not hastily put together bottom of the barrel stuff.

As for what is in Kherson right now, it's a mix of regular Russian units backed by LPR (perhaps DPR too?), Caucuses units, and Rosgvardiya (Chechens at the very least).

Steve

[Beleg85]

13 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Plus, volunteer battalions but I do not know the total number. So, let's say we are talking about 20 thousand fresh troops. However, if information regarding transfer of refuseniks to the front line is right then we could go up to 25 thousand.

Looks promising. 15k fresh recruis, daddy-age cossack volunteers and forced refusniks. All sprinkled with surviving VDV, Wagner and Specnaz to pretend they are still army.

With sucha a force I can see light at the end of tunnel.

 

Something is burning very close to kahkovka dam.

 

Edited July 18, 2022 by Beleg85

[Grigb]

26 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

With sucha a force I can see light at the end of tunnel.

Now you understand why Girkin and Murz have been raving mad for several weeks. But you forget three main ingredients that make all problems go away. Cocaine, stripers, and RU TV channel.

[Taranis]

43 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Looks promising. 15k fresh recruis, daddy-age cossack volunteers and forced refusniks. All sprinkled with surviving VDV, Wagner and Specnaz to pretend they are still army.

With sucha a force I can see light at the end of tunnel.

 

Something is burning very close to kahkovka dam.