How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Calamine Waffles]

The US has 50,000+ GMLRS rockets, they can probably spare a few.

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Dmitry Orekhov, Deputy Commander, 291st Guards Motor Rifle Regiment, 42nd Guards Motor Rifle Division:

 

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Dmitry Orekhov, Deputy Commander, 291st Guards Motor Rifle Regiment, 42nd Guards Motor Rifle Division:

 

@sburke @Kinophile

He has artillery signs, probably he was not deputy comamnder, but regimental artillery chief. 

Edited July 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Dmitry Orekhov, Deputy Commander, 291st Guards Motor Rifle Regiment, 42nd Guards Motor Rifle Division:

 

Was that picture taken AFTER he died? Because it is by far the worst picture I have seen in one of these announcements. Fairly strong statement considering the average is bleeping awful.

[Haiduk]

19 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

It will be an excellent way to waste precious cruise missiles...but then again, Russian has virtually zero target-finding capability past the near-FEBA, so what are they going to use them on anyway in Ukraine?

If they will use "missile terror", they can launch missles in any "suspicious" targets in such way to inflict sensitive "collateral damage" among civilians. For example to target some facility in the center of some city, causing new dozens of victims and to claim they hit "place of nationalists deployment". Since Syria bombardments it's knowingly, where Russian bomb or missile explode - there was ISIS HQ. 

Russsians have enough old Kh-22 missiles for such terror. 450 kg of HE, 500 m CEP, interception almost impossible. Or Kh-101, Kh-555, which they can safely launch from unreachable ranges. 

Edited July 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

I was under impression Ukraine had retreated to a new frontline at Siversk but the line is anchored east of the city.

 

 

[FancyCat]

Let's not underestimate terror attacks. They may not immediately break morale but their use strains and tightens the leeway of the rear and home front. Hopefully NATO gets off it's slowness and accelerates the arming of Ukraine. Modern war is intensively resource consuming, but I'm not seeing the ramp up needed to assist Ukraine.

[Grigb]

21 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Not one Murz. Several Russian propagandists in social media started "to push in masses" narratives that victory is impossible without heavy strikes on civilaian infrastructure, big losses among civilians - because this can cause unrest and pressure on Zelenskyi to accept Russian terms for the sake of deaths and destructions stopping.

True. War with RU is ugly. They did the same in Chechnya. This is how Putin bought Kadyrov absolute loyalty. 

 

21 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

So, I think, in nearest time we should be ready to "missile terror". 

True. As I said a month ago they gonna hit you hard around 20ths of July and week later raised the possibility of RU switching to terror strikes. But now we should also prepare for the possibility of an imminent new RU victory offensive.

 

49 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I translate some of his sentences:

- Can our president say tomorrow on TV: "Yes, I made a decision to stop special military operation" ? Yes, he can. But what then happens? All that is done, is all in vain? This is first. And all this nationalism, which will remain unfinished, will come here through the year. And it will be here, in Aleysk, Novoisibirsk, Tomsk, Tyumen', Moscow, anywhere... Only just because our state, like a beaten dog will have to leave from there, do you understand? We canno't afford it to ourselves, no matter how hard it is.

That's not exactly true. When needed they do leave looking like beaten dog. They did it in the First Chechen war. But the more conditions look favorable for RU the better chances are for Putin to survive the power struggle. 

[Huba]

What UA need regardin anti-EW weapons is Harpy or something similar. Shame Biden didn't manage to convince Israelis to sell them. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/IAI_Harpy

[Beleg85]

58 minutes ago, Grigb said:

True. War with RU is ugly. They did the same in Chechnya. This is how Putin bought Kadyrov absolute loyalty. 

Kadyrov may ba an indicator of change. If/when King Under the Mountain will try to make his own moves, like indisriminatelly killing his personal enemies (and there are still some) may actually be one of the few external signs that something at Kremlin is happening and Putin's grip of power is loosening. Of course Kadyrov did this before, but he was still somewhat checked by RU security apparatus.

 

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

If they will use "missile terror", they can launch missles in any "suspicious" targets in such way to inflict sensitive "collateral damage" among civilians. For example to target some facility in the center of some city, causing new dozens of victims and to claim they hit "place of nationalists deployment". Since Syria bombardments it's knowingly, where Russian bomb or missile explode - there was ISIS HQ

Unfortunatelly- expected moves. They need to do something to reply to HIMARS fireworks, and will probbaly speak in only language the Kremlin knows. But this will be difficult to sell even for Russian propagadna- I hope they will try to "limit" this campaign somehow at least for domestic audience. Ukraine is still not Syria.

 

Curious. Crew does not seem to be specially moved they just got shot by ATGM.

Edited July 16, 2022 by Beleg85

[JonS]

On 7/15/2022 at 9:05 PM, poesel said:

How much ammo is in such a depot? Obviously depends on size but 1k, 10k, 100k shells?

Yeah, it really depends on the echelon the dump supports - bde, div, corps, army. Below bde (bn or bty) the stocks 'should' all be on wheels.

The following pseudo-calcs are based on very not-Russian doctrine, and instruction to the level of "enough to know what the blanket-folders care about" rather than "enough to do the blanket-folder's job", so the principles should be about right, although the particular numbers will vary.

Generally, stocks are held in dumps based on days-of-supply (or some equivalent term) which is - as you can probably guess - the expected consumption per day in units of fire, rather than a specific number of rounds. For a ~150mm calibre gun (152, or 155) 1 unit would be 80-100 rounds^ at standard rates of fire. This is equivalent to the 'basic load' or 'first line' of 5.56mm that riflemen carry, or the standard loadout of a tank of IFV. You might double or triple it for high expected intensity, or halve it for quiet times, but 1 unit is as good a place as any to start. Then, 'all' you have to do is count up the number of guns in the echelon, multiply by the number of rounds in the basic load, and multiply all that by the number of days the dump is to support. For a bde you'd expect the dump to be able to support 2-3 days, a div 3-7 days, a corps something like a week to a fortnight, and an army ... well, whatever.

So, for a bde, you're looking at something like 18 guns x 90 rounds x 2 days = ~3200 rounds, or a bit over 400 pallets.

For a div, it'd be something like 4-10 times that amount, or 12,000 - 30,000rnds. (54 guns x 90 rounds x 5 days = ~24,000 rounds/3,000 pallets)

A corps would be about 4-10 times that (50,000-300,000rnds), although presumably split into multiple dispersed div- or bde-sized dumps.

If you then apply some level of safety thinking, and split the dump into multiple separated 'blobs' so you don't lose the whole lot to a single accident or enemy strike, well, a properly organised and run dump takes up a LOT of real estate. Each dump would expect to receive a flow of rounds arriving each day from the next higher dump, and in turn push rounds down to the next lower dump or have rounds pulled out out by the firing units. The dump therefore acts as a buffer so that local variations in the amount received or the amount consumed aren't felt by the firing units or their supported arms. If the amount received is less than the amount consumed ... the dump gets smaller. If the amount received exceeds the amount consumed then the dump swells. In either case the guns should experience no disruption in supply.

The pic below shows an 8-round pallet.

 

^ itself made up of a pre-determined mix of HE, illum, smoke, etc projectiles and a pre-determined mix of fuze types - PD, prox, time, etc

And, of course, that's only gun ammo. There's also mortar ammo, fighting vehicle ammo, small arms ammo, ATGMs and MANPADS, fuel, mines, engineering stores, personal consumables, medical supplies, bridging equipment, spare parts, batteries, ... the wonder is not that armies move so slowly, but that they move at all.

Edited July 17, 2022 by JonS

[Calamine Waffles]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

If they will use "missile terror", they can launch missles in any "suspicious" targets in such way to inflict sensitive "collateral damage" among civilians. For example to target some facility in the center of some city, causing new dozens of victims and to claim they hit "place of nationalists deployment". Since Syria bombardments it's knowingly, where Russian bomb or missile explode - there was ISIS HQ. 

Russsians have enough old Kh-22 missiles for such terror. 450 kg of HE, 500 m CEP, interception almost impossible. Or Kh-101, Kh-555, which they can safely launch from unreachable ranges. 

The CEP of the Kh-22 is not 500 m, it's more like 3 miles (~5 km) in land attack mode. 500 m is with the radar against naval targets, which cannot be used against land targets.

They don't have an infinite number of Kh-101, Kh-555, and they can't launch all of them anyway because they need to keep some for use against NATO and/or China etc.

The Kh-22 is very much not impossible to intercept. It's a 1960s missile with 1950s technology. It's just that Ukraine doesn't have enough of the tools needed. Hopefully that will change.



 

[Grigb]

8 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Kadyrov may ba an indicator of change. If/when King Under the Mountain will try to make his own moves, like indisriminatelly killing his personal enemies (and there are still some) may actually be one of the few external signs that something at Kremlin is happening and Putin's grip of power is loosening. Of course Kadyrov did this before, but he was still somewhat checked by RU security apparatus.

Yes. Kadyrov behavior is good indicator of at least Putin losing something - either grip or life. I also believe the guy has bigger aspirations than being king of a small country.  

[Grigb]

7 hours ago, JonS said:

Generally, stocks are held in dumps based on days-of-supply (or some equivalent term) which is - as you can probably guess - the expected consumption per day in units of fire, rather than a specific number of rounds. For a ~150mm calibre gun (152, or 155) 1 unit would be 80-100 rounds^ at standard rates of fire. This is equivalent to the 'basic load' or 'first line' of 5.56mm that riflemen carry, or the standard loadout of a tank of IFV. You might double or triple it for high expected intensity, or halve it for quiet times, but 1 unit is as good a place as any to start.

AFAIR, yes, it is like this except for 152mm it is 60 rounds for [default] ammo load. 80-100 is for 120mm calibers. 

[Grigb]

Interesting info regarding RU MOD volunteer battalion from Orel (do not confuse it with LDNR volunteer units).

 

The post itself is not very interesting - volunteer with some military experience describes that RU command tried to assign him to command Fire Support platoon (AGS-17, ATGMs, Utes NSV machine gun), he refused (too much responsibility and little experience with these weapons). So, he was given the job of "Commander of Infantry platoon" which is unusual for RU army as there are only motor rifle platoons.

As he immediately found out there is no (and never will be) any AFV in Volunteer Battalions [formed by RU MOD]. 

[Grigb]

RUMINT - currently RU produces 50 Calibers and 30 Iskanders per month. Possibly average missile expenditure per day = production. However, Iskander number most likely inflated. 

 

 

[poesel]

13 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

 

Curious. Crew does not seem to be specially moved they just got shot by ATGM.

That has definitely the best music score of all videos ever:

"
...
We hurdle bodies that lay on the ground
And the Russians fire another round
...
"

Love that song.

Edit: ...and it's about the Crimean war in first place!

Edited July 17, 2022 by poesel

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

British NLAW or American Javelin - 1 hit and tank turrets reach space. russian anti-tank missile - 3 hits and the turret on this thinly armored ancient BTR-80 doesn't even budge.

Curious. Crew does not seem to be specially moved they just got shot by ATGM.

I havn't account on twitetr, so can't watch the video. But this is fact - BTRs can survive several RPG, western light AT-wepon (like Matador and other) or even ATGMs, because they just a metal box with engine and without dozens of powder charges for several-kg HE rouds inside. If HEAT doesnt' hit engine or 30 mm gun ammunition, there is just nothing to burn inside APC. You can recall Russian video from Mariupol, when the tank tried to pull damaged BTR-82A - it got three RPG-7 in front full, but didn't set fire. Also you can recall a video how UKR forces ambushed BTR-80 with some light western AT-weapon. BTR got two hits, but kept capability to move and only third hit to rear part caused fire. 

Edited July 17, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Interesting info regarding RU MOD volunteer battalion from Orel (do not confuse it with LDNR volunteer units).

The post itself is not very interesting - volunteer with some military experience describes that RU command tried to assign him to command Fire Support platoon (AGS-17, ATGMs, Utes NSV machine gun), he refused (too much responsibility and little experience with these weapons). So, he was given the job of "Commander of Infantry platoon" which is unusual for RU army as there are only motor rifle platoons.

As he immediately found out there is no (and never will be) any AFV in Volunteer Battalions [formed by RU MOD]. 

Russians "invented" our territorial  defense battalions ver.2014. Though, our TDB-2014 had several BRDM-2 in recon platoon. I wonder, Russia has hundreds stored old BTR-70 and not so old BTR-80, which recently were substituted by BTR-82A and Tigrs. Why not arm theese battalions with theese APCs?

Edited July 17, 2022 by Haiduk

[Taranis]

"Relatives and friends pay their last respects to Liza, a 4-year-old girl killed by a Russian attack, in Vinnytsia, Ukraine, July 17, 2022. EFREM LUKATSKY / AP"

[Haiduk]

Indirect evidens that Russians managed to catch some element of UKR 19th missile brigade, armed with Tochka-U (and now partially likely with HIMARS). Senior lieutenant, officer-psychologist of this brigade,  Olha Tymoshenko has died from burns in hospital in Zaporizhzhia on 5th of April. The car, in which she drove was hit. She was 27. Signed contract in 2019.

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by Haiduk

[Grigb]

26 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russians "invented" our territorial  defense battalions ver.2014. Though, our TDB-2014 had several BRDM-2 in recon platoon. I wonder, Russia has hundreds stored old BTR-70 and not so old BTR-80, which recently were substituted by BTR-82A and Tigrs. Why not arm theese battalions with theese APCs?

You are too kind, Haiduk. In case of troubles 1 BTR = at least 10 persons gone. No vehicles, No home, No morale problems. 

[EDIT] To clarify - even 1 BTR can shuttle between battalion base and railroad/bus station/highway. So, after several hours you might miss whole platoons.   

Edited July 17, 2022 by Grigb

[Bulletpoint]

16 hours ago, poesel said:

If anything at all, this war has massively sped up the move away from fossil fuels. If that was Putins plan right from the start, he has succeeded.

Yes, that much is clear, and much has been written on the effects of the war on climate policy. But I haven't found any articles about how climate change and the risk of stranded assets could be one of the main reasons for the war.

[chuckdyke]

Interesting video about the role of satelites in this war.

Ukraine: The New Satellite War - Digital Eye - YouTube

 

[Haiduk]

Locals from seashore settlement Lazurne in Kherson oblast report two missiles at 1:30 of night hit "Сhaika" (eng. Gull) pension, where about 350 Russian servicemen were deployed. Also they write as if Russians in previous day was launching missiles on UKR-controlled territory from their settlement. Reportedly all Lazurne in dense smoke because of the fire, but this is very strange because FIRMS doesn't show any fire in this place. But maybe update will be soon.

Also now appeared reports about explosions in Chornobaivka and Chaplynka (the village almost on the boundary with Crimea), but should be confirmed

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by Haiduk