Grigb Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 (edited) Some more info about RU economy State of Ru import Quote The Russian economy (75% dependent on imports of consumer goods, 55% — on imports of medicines and occupying less than 1% of the world market of know-how and inventions) after the outbreak of war with Ukraine found itself in the strongest trade isolation. Compared to February the drop in imports reached 50% at the lowest point , said Maxim Reshetnikov, head of the Ministry of Economic Development, speaking at the RSPP congress on Wednesday. [RSPP - Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs] At the same time, the hopes of "China will help us" somehow do not yet agree with what is really happening. Chinese corporations are embedded in the global economy, and therefore they are not at all eager to risk business by coming to the freed [from Western goods] Russian market, which is shrinking to African indicators. So today we received a message that the Honor Corporation is curtailing its presence in Russia quietly and without declaring hostilities. The Chinese auto industry is not eager to replace the disapeared supplies from Europe. Trade with China is becoming more and more "gray", switching to semi-smuggling schemes. It's the same story with other countries — India, for example. In fact, Russia finds itself in the Iraqi scenario "Oil in exchange for food", but in a much tougher variation. The nuance is also that the fall from a relatively normal (well, as far as it can be called the norm at all) life into a catastrophic scenario happens very quickly, which in itself is extremely painful. People do not have time to adapt to the changes taking place, either psychologically or organizationally. And not only people — structures are also late with the reaction, since the fall into the abyss itself is too dynamic. The authorities, of course, are straining to talk about current successes and shining prospects, but either they are habitually lying, or they themselves have stopped somehow adequately perceiving what is happening. That both cases are happening together and simultaneously is quite possible. Gasprom state Quote Gazprom refused to pay dividends. However, most Russian companies are making such decisions this year. Gazprom said that the shareholders decided that in the current situation, it is impractical to pay dividends of the end of 2021. The meaning of the solution is on the surface: the company went into a tailspin. The withdrawal of funds will now, in fact, bleed Gazprom, which has found itself in a strategic impasse. The European market is closing, the turn to the east is yet possible due to the lack of infrastructurally, [RU] LNG technologies are in their infancy, and again, it is not possible to develop liquefaction capacities infrastructurally and technologically, since in addition to the liquefaction plants themselves, tanker capacities are required, which again out of Russian capabilities. Therefore, they will have to act again through laying thousands of kilometers of pipes, and this is an extremely difficult story at all stages. There is neither time nor money. Therefore, the decision to refuse to pay dividends is forced. Gazprom's largest shareholder, the state, in this case will not receive budget revenues, but it is not the first time for Russian citizens to save Putin's oligarchs. What citizens are talking about if we need to pull another Putin appointee out of the another hole? [As I said Moscow does not govern or manage anything. It just pumps out any profit till everything collapses] PS. Against the background of the decision to refuse to pay dividends, Gazprom's shares fell by 10 percent. PPS. The drop is already 30 percent State of Sberbank - It is most popular RU bank. Quote Following Gazprom, a similar situation is happening with Sberbank. Sberbank shareholders have decided not to pay dividends for 2021. The bank's shares have already declined by 7%, according to the Moscow Exchange. Lesson on how to speak as patriotic RU - the economy demonstrates excellent negative strengthening. Edited June 30, 2022 by Grigb 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Ringo Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 I'm not very adept at quoting other posts, so I'll copy/paste relevant comments. And thanks to Grigb for the translation and the excellent comments, from his post: Putin: The tactics proposed by the Ministry of Defense, the General Staff, Putin noted that although he is the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, he did not graduate from the General Staff Academy. "I trust those people who are professionals, they act as they see fit to achieve the ultimate goal," he said. Girkin The President, apparently, does not really comprehend what is happening in the active army, of which he is the commander-in-chief. Otherwise, he would not say "about trusting professionals" (Shoigu is a military professional! What a joke!). [Shoigu is neither military, nor a governmental professional. He has reputation of PR man who cannot really manage anything) They are already lining up where to place blame--away from themselves and straight to the military. When the **** finally hits the fan Putin will claim he trusted his military leaders and they failed him, failed the Motherland. And, they intentionally hid critical information from him so that he didn't "comprehend what is happening". Dictators, Tzars and politicians.....some things never change. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 6 hours ago, Machor said: Since there was some discussion on the UK training that Ukrainian troops are now receiving, I am curious to hear if the pros can comment on what they're seeing in this BBC coverage - and for @JonS, Kiwi gunners are involved as well: Ukrainian troops being trained in the UK https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-61973635 Johnno! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: Here's what a nation willing to fight a long war looks like: https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-kyiv-cleanup-before-after/31916000.html Steve That is astonishing 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 The danger of a one sided ceasefire by Putin is there, but, especially I think following the visit of Scholz and Macron to Kiev, there is some more leeway for Ukraine to tell Putin to shove off any ceasefire and keep operations going. One way to deter it is to keep attacking over the border. It's very routine these attacks now, yet Russia cannot declare ceasefires if Ukraine still threatens the safety of Russia in it's borders. Assuming Ukraine wouldnt want a ceasefire. They may decide to want one for a temporary respite but I doubt it. I hope Ukraine got their forces out the city, not sure what to make of these reports they still hold and intend on defending the city. Maybe they are cut off, but I think there's some slack left for units to leave no? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 From unofficial RU digest of military technology news regarding RU-China cooperation Quote Russia is reducing its participation in the project to create a joint long-haul wide-body aircraft CR929 with China, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov said during the plenary session of the forum "Engineers of the Future", reports TASS. "We have this project going on with China, which in principle is not going in the direction that suits us. China, as it turns into an industrial giant, is less and less interested in our services. We have our design bureau, we have enormous experience in TsAGI [Central Aerohydrodynamic Institute]. But the Chinese have more needs than we have today. Our participation is decreasing and decreasing. I don't want to predict the future of this project – whether we will withdraw from it or not, so far as a matter of fact it is still underway," said Yuri Borisov. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poesel Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said: Challenging diplomatic situation, when Germany and France and the rest are screaming for peace and UKR would prefer to get weapons to kick Russians out on get rid of the Russian stranglehold. IIRC you already said that in the past, but that doesn't make it true. Speaking for Germany, the public has accepted that Russian gas will be gone sooner or later. Preferably later, because the switchover will take time and the hurt will be a bit less if we have more (time). But it is an accepted fact that Russian gas has no future here. The war has accelerated many things energy wise, but it has not changed the direction of it. The time necessary to re-normalize the relations to Russia is much bigger than the time necessary to switch around our energy sector (this year for Russian oil, 2-3 years for Russian gas (or whenever they cut us off - that is the expensive part)). Apart from gas & oil, Russia is not very important for us economically. For some the damage is big, but as a whole it doesn't matter much. There is no political interest to 'scream for peace' apart from the usual useful idiots. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said: Well, the unilateral ceasefire would be more of a strategic pause for the Russians. With the current frontlines Ukraine is bleeding every moment and being totally unviable as a state. Challenging diplomatic situation, when Germany and France and the rest are screaming for peace and UKR would prefer to get weapons to kick Russians out on get rid of the Russian stranglehold. This will for sure be challenging diplomatic situation for EU - I can imagine Germany, France and Italy screaming for peace, but I can hardly imagine Poland, Baltic states and hopefully my country going along with it, since they know they're next and will see this as a betrayal. This is probably going to be the biggest challenge for EU yet. EDIT: but according to latest statements from Scholz and Macron, they also seem to be along for a ride and sending significant weapons now. Actually, France was sending weapons at the same time Macron was doing his "we must not humiliate Putin" standup comedy act, so who knows if Macros in not really in control or he was just playing good cop? And Scholz seems to finally listen to his people, so maybe Russians overplayed their hand and the "but we all want peace, right? we all want this all to go away, right?" part might not work that well. Edited June 30, 2022 by Letter from Prague 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 (edited) To celebrate today's good news from Snake Islands, here is something to laugh at from Master Dugin: https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1542467966721265665 Edited June 30, 2022 by Beleg85 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 14 minutes ago, poesel said: IIRC you already said that in the past, but that doesn't make it true. Speaking for Germany, the public has accepted that Russian gas will be gone sooner or later. Preferably later, because the switchover will take time and the hurt will be a bit less if we have more (time). But it is an accepted fact that Russian gas has no future here. The war has accelerated many things energy wise, but it has not changed the direction of it. The time necessary to re-normalize the relations to Russia is much bigger than the time necessary to switch around our energy sector (this year for Russian oil, 2-3 years for Russian gas (or whenever they cut us off - that is the expensive part)). Apart from gas & oil, Russia is not very important for us economically. For some the damage is big, but as a whole it doesn't matter much. There is no political interest to 'scream for peace' apart from the usual useful idiots. German government actions are just buzzling to me. Is the government irrationally pacifist (pacifist would field the maximalist soft power, clearly not the case here). Too invested to admit 20 years of foreign policy was wrong? Still hoping for the problem just to go away? Or is the economic impact of Russia really worse than anybody wants to admit? latest puzzlement from Germany: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said: German government actions are just buzzling to me. Is the government irrationally pacifist (pacifist would field the maximalist soft power, clearly not the case here). Too invested to admit 20 years of foreign policy was wrong? Still hoping for the problem just to go away? Or is the economic impact of Russia really worse than anybody wants to admit? latest puzzlement from Germany: Visegrad is often inflamatory on purpose, and it quotes yesterday article from Reuters, that we already criticized here. Until officialy signalled, it's a non- story. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 Not sure how the people at Bellingcat haven't lost their minds refuting Russian lies but they have a thread answering some Russian bull**** on the mall rocket attack and their site expands on it. Of the most important thing to know, neither the mall nor the factory near it were legitimate military targets. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 32 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said: latest puzzlement from Germany: RU propaganda channels are spreading rumor that there is an agreement to lift RU blockade of UKR black seaports (to allow export of UKR grain under Turkey supervision) in exchange of lifting Kaliningrad "blockade". Retreat from Snake Island was related to that agreement (no need to suffer losses when main goal of grain blockade is no longer applicable). They are saying that in a couple of days Kaliningrad "blockade" will be lifted. Well, if it is true, there is possibility that Kaliningrad "blockade" was a EU ploy to force RU (with UKR "gentle push") to lift UKR grain blockade. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taranis Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 (edited) (Recorded 20th June 2022) Edited June 30, 2022 by Taranis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calamine Waffles Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 23 minutes ago, Grigb said: RU propaganda channels are spreading rumor that there is an agreement to lift RU blockade of UKR black seaports (to allow export of UKR grain under Turkey supervision) in exchange of lifting Kaliningrad "blockade". Retreat from Snake Island was related to that agreement (no need to suffer losses when main goal of grain blockade is no longer applicable). They are saying that in a couple of days Kaliningrad "blockade" will be lifted. Well, if it is true, there is possibility that Kaliningrad "blockade" was a EU ploy to force RU (with UKR "gentle push") to lift UKR grain blockade. I'm sure the fact that Ukraine was obliterating stuff there with artillery was only coincidental. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 14 hours ago, Machor said: @acrashb @The_MonkeyKing @Aragorn2002 @Lethaface There's nothing in the MOU that changes the status quo: A notable caveat to the MOU btw Turkey/Finland/Sweden is that the Turkish parliament has to pass a bill on the accession. Expect some horse trading to happen there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said: I'm sure the fact that Ukraine was obliterating stuff there with artillery was only coincidental. You are talking about RU that was obliterated several times there already but kept coming for more. I lost count how many times they deployed stuff to Chernobievka. If needed RU can be very persistent. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calamine Waffles Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 They have no way to counter artillery strikes. Pantsir and Tor can't shoot down 155 mm shells. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said: They have no way to counter artillery strikes. Pantsir and Tor can't shoot down 155 mm shells. You saying it like they never lost anything there before. Also while they cannot shot down 155mm they do have capability to deal with Bayraktars making 155mm much less efective. Finally, Bohdana you referenced to is not a new weapon delivered recently. It was produced in 2018. RU is stupid but not that stupid not to expect it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 @sburke @Kinophile Lt. Col. Sergei Moskvichev, probably 137th Guards Airborne Regiment, 106th Guards Airborne Division: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 Tanks? Macron tanks? Hope so but I suspects these are just certain cold war APCs... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calamine Waffles Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said: Tanks? Macron tanks? Hope so but I suspects these are just certain cold war APCs... It's a mistranslation of the original French (véhicules blindés — AFVs)https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1542480626560942080 30 minutes ago, Grigb said: You saying it like they never lost anything there before. Also while they cannot shot down 155mm they do have capability to deal with Bayraktars making 155mm much less efective. Finally, Bohdana you referenced to is not a new weapon delivered recently. It was produced in 2018. RU is stupid but not that stupid not to expect it. Bohdana exists in maybe single digit numbers (some say only 1 was ever made). It was not until Western HIMARS/Caesar/etc. systems started coming in that Snake Island became untenable. Edited June 30, 2022 by Calamine Waffles 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Taranis said: (Recorded 20th June 2022) A key goal of the Russian invasion was to cripple and control Ukraine's seaborne trade. It's not going to get the headlines Severodonetsk did but this is a *huge* strategic setback for Moscow in any war ending negotiations. Big. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 Belarussian citizens have started receiving conscription notices, local news outlet Zerkalo reported on June 30. https://english.nv.ua/nation/belarus-sends-out-conscription-notices-en-masse-50253394.html Any idea how reliable this news outlet is? If it is true, it's going to be interesting. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 While navigating RU propaganda sewers (it was by accident) I noticed something interesting. They are publishing articles about RU government failures. For example, about the failed import replacement program. Quote About failures in import substitution. 1. Andrey Makarov, chairman of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes, has unprecedented criticized the activities of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, which, with the connivance of the Ministry of Finance (Siluanov) and the Accounts Chamber (Kudrin), failed the import substitution program, as well as the development of aviation and automotive industry. 2. According to Makarov, supported by documents, the state program "development of the aviation industry" has actually failed dramatically. 32 indicators have not been achieved, 56 out of 65 indicators "show technical actions", which essentially means the appearance of activity in order to justify the colossal budget expenditures. And most importantly, there is no project plan (an action plan for the development of the aviation industry), which means that all expenses are directed to pay for "current activities" — salaries of officials, administrative expenses and other things that are not related to a required modernization. The key indicator — gross value added (447 billion rubles instead of 513 billion rubles) is not fulfilled and this means that the Ministry of Industry and Trade has squandered budget resources. Also, ALL the key parameters outlined by the state program show dramatic failure. 3. The consequences were manifested in the forecasts of the start of serial production of the MS-21 aircraft. Minister Manturov and Chemezov, the head of Rostec, which includes the UAC, promised in 2017 to start mass-producing the aircraft in 2019; then, in 2019, Deputy Prime Minister Borisov spoke about 2021, in March 2022 Manturov — 2024, June 2022, Borisov-Chemezov - 2029. Import substitution, despite abundant financing, has also been failed. In March 2015, Manturov signed an order to localize the PD-14 engine from 0 to 100% in 2020, fuel systems by 80-100% by the end of 2017. Nothing was done. As a result, the following order appears from August 02, 2021 — localize the engine to (already) 90-100% by 2024, fuel systems to (already) 50% by 2024. Hundreds of billions of rubles allocated under the promises of Borisov, Manturov and Chemezov to localize the production of the first Russian domestic civil aircraft were spent without a calculated result. The situation in the automotive industry is even worse in terms of automatic transmission and brake systems, [the lack of which] actually stopped domestic factories. That includes KAMAZ, the only manufacturer of competitive trucks of Soviet design (14th place in the world ranking), which is completely dependent on imported brake systems and automatic transmissions. Makarov in this regard quoted a statement attributed to Manturov - "import substitution has stopped due to the inability to purchase imported components" with his comment - "I thought they finally told the truth." [No comments] 4. It follows from Makarov's speech that one of the reasons for the failure of state programs is the "spinning of money" [you put money, received from the government, into a closely related bank for a period of time instead of spending them according to your project plan. After that the bank returns money and deposit profit into your personal account], by responsible state corporations, in particular, Rostec and UAC, through deposits to commercial banks. In 2021, the "balance of target funds and the volume of temporarily available funds" increased to almost 450 billion rubles, which is estimated to have brought the GC [State corporations] at least 45 billion rubles of "rented" trouble-free income, not backed by any goods - a powerful fuel for inflation. This happened with the connivance of the Ministry of Finance and the SP [Investigative Committee under the Prosecutor's Office], which judging by the reports, ignored these phenomena, as well as the failure of state programs by the Ministry of Industry and Trade and Rostec. [Obviously, they were bribed] 5. Makarov's analysis poses serious problems with the reality of implementing a new aircraft construction program worth about 800 billion rubles, which was lobbied in the government by Manturov and Chemezov with the support of Deputy Prime Minister Borisov in addition to the 450 billion rubles allocated earlier for the development and "additional financing" of the UAC. The question is why they are publishing failures of Putin controlled government? Then came news about the arrest of Vladimir Mau Quote RANEPA Rector Vladimir Mau charged with fraud Employees of the investigative unit of the Moscow State Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia have charged the rector of RANEPA, Vladimir Mau, on Thursday, June 30, the press service of the central board reported. It is known that Vladimir Mau is accused of embezzlement of funds of the educational institution headed by him. Mau is a member of so-called Anatoly Chubais team. Chuibais and his team is part of the weakened Party clan. And all men mentioned in the article above are also civil servants from Party clan. We see Putin firing the first volleys in the new war for power between clans. As we already discussed he is laying blame for military failure on generals from Military clan and simultaneously laying blame on economic failures on civil servants of Party clan. And because Party clan is closely related to liberal Russians (Chubais came to government pretending to be liberal politician) Putin is also trying to channel nationalist anger toward liberals in order to suppress possible liberal rebellion. The Military clan also firing at Putin saying controversial Azov fighters exchange was done of Putin's order. Quote Urgent statement of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation Yesterday, on June 29, 144 servicemen were exchanged for 144. It was organized and conducted on the direct instructions of the Supreme Commander—in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, because the lives, health, release of our servicemen, fighters of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, who make up the majority of those returned, is the most important task. Waiting for response from Party clan. Stay tuned for the next episode of the reality show Death of Stalin 2. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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