How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Taranis]

"This video clip released on June 29, 2022 by the Russian Defense Ministry press service shows a Russian Air Force Mi-24 helicopter ejecting flares during a mission in Ukraine. RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY/ AP"

[Huba]

There are reports that RU evacuated Snake Island. HIMARS seems to be a game changer, at least locally.

Ukraine needs a flashy victory, to compensate for the withdrawal from Luhansk oblast:

 

Edited June 30, 2022 by Huba

[dan/california]

Well we were reading the STAVKA's email near as I can tell...

[Huba]

And it seems it is being confirmed officially - no more Russians on the Snake Island! I wonder what UA next steps will be though? The obviously need to do a sea/air landing there, sooner than later. I imagine at minimum, a small infantry contingent with a lot of MANPADS and those nice Swedish shore-launched Hellfires would have to be send there. Dig in very deep and expect airstrikes, but deny RU any stupid ideas.
Would it make sense to try to keep radars and AShMs/ heavy SAMs there ? I doubt that, given how exposed a position the Snake Island is, it would be a big missile magnet and waste of good equipment. 

Edit: now confirmed by RU MoD. Last act of good will was running away from Kyiv, the spin they put on it is such a joke...

Edited June 30, 2022 by Huba

[Taranis]

11 minutes ago, Huba said:

And it seems it is being confirmed officially - no more Russians on the Snake Island! I wonder what UA next steps will be though? The obviously need to do a sea/air landing there, sooner than later. I imagine at minimum, a small infantry contingent with a lot of MANPADS and those nice Swedish shore-launched Hellfires would have to be send there. Dig in very deep and expect airstrikes, but deny RU any stupid ideas.
Would it make sense to try to keep radars and AShMs/ heavy SAMs there ? I doubt that, given how exposed a position the Snake Island is, it would be a big missile magnet and waste of good equipment.

 

Also confirmed by Russian Ministry of Defense :
https://t.me/rian_ru/169290
BE CARREFUL PROPAGANDA ↓

Quote

 

"The Russian Ministry of Defense on the withdrawal of the military from Zmeiny Island:

"Thus, it has been demonstrated to the world community that the Russian Federation does not interfere with the efforts of the UN to organize a humanitarian corridor for the export of agricultural products from the territory of Ukraine"

"This decision will not allow Kyiv to speculate on the topic of the impending food crisis, referring to the impossibility of exporting grain due to Russia's total control of the northwestern part of the Black Sea"

"Now the word is up to the Ukrainian side, which still does not clear the Black Sea coast near its shores, including port waters""

 

Edited June 30, 2022 by Taranis

[kraze]

20 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Not entirely. Tokaiev direct stand against Putin at his "Economic Forum"was indeed something unexpected, but it is too early to tell if Kazakhs can (an indeed want) to break off from Russia. They probbaly try to pull some strings at Beijing and see how far they can go against Czar. Of course, Putin did shot himself in leg by using VDV's excessive brutallity against some unarmed Kazakh protestors. But situation is still developing.

Azeri in tun were never Russian vassals, if at all they are Turkish ones.

 

Yeah but Azerbaijan was willing to play ball with russian-armenian occupation of their land - and now that attitude is all but gone.

As for Tokaiev... In a criminal world of dictators things like these aren't just forgiven and aren't done once. Especially when dealing with a very barbaric empire with an insane old man leading it, who all but proclaimed himself the emperor. So if one starts rolling that ball - he better be seeing it through to the end. While there's an opportunity.

[FancyCat]

Snake Island does not seem big enough for a garrison to not suffer horridly from a Russian missile strike. Might be best to keep it empty.

[Huba]

An article about UA troops training in the UK. A few key points:

- UA soldiers are really keen to learn and do not slack around (no surprise here really)

- it seems that M270 training is about to end, or has already ended

- UK bought around 50 L119 guns for transfer to UA. We can imagine this is an initial batch, there really is a lot of the 105mm NATO guns sitting around in the world

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-soldiers-hungry-to-learn-from-british-army-as-they-sharpen-skills-on-salisbury-plain-12642882

[kraze]

russians leaving Snake Island as an "act of good will" is unfortunate.

We wish they'd rather stay.

Our HIMARS crews need training.

[Huba]

Putin commented on the war's progress. Apart from usualBS about Russias safety etc. he outlined what the RU goal is: "liberation" of Donbas. It seems the official war goals have been reduced, and it highlights what can be expected from the Russians in upcoming months - a push on Slovyansk/ Kramatorsk has to continue.

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

Putin commented on the war's progress. Apart from usualBS about Russias safety etc. he outlined what the RU goal is: "liberation" of Donbas. It seems the official war goals have been reduced, and it highlights what can be expected from the Russians in upcoming months - a push on Slovyansk/ Kramatorsk has to continue.

 

Going to be another new mess when Russia has taken what it sees possible (approximately Luhansk) and starts implementing unilateral ceasefire.

[paxromana]

6 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Going to be another new mess when Russia has taken what it sees possible (approximately Luhansk) and starts implementing unilateral ceasefire.

So they'll provide sitting duck targets for UA Artillery in Donbas instead of on Snake Island?

More masterly generalship from Herr Putler!

[Huba]

Just now, The_MonkeyKing said:

Going to be another new mess when Russia has taken what it sees possible (approximately Luhansk) and starts implementing unilateral ceasefire.

It seems that Lysychansk is already evacuated, or will be today, UA is retreating to Siversk - Bakhmut line. I don't think that RU can stop at that point though, liberating half of Donbas does not sound like a victory at all, they will have to continue. The unilateral ceasefire is going to be a mess indeed, but I really don't think the idea will catch traction in the West - it was stated by everyone that it's up to UA to decide, and Zelensky's terms to start negotiations is for RU to withdraw to Feb 24th. TBH, I have the impression that at least some western leaders have smelled the blood at this point and won't let go easily. For sure Johnson had, and I think Macron too. Nothing gives you more support than a victorious war after all.

UA retreating from Lysychansk under fire. Spirits seem to be high  :

 

 

[chuckdyke]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

Nothing gives you more support than a victorious war after all.

Russia under the putin administration is not a regime you can do business with. That is crystal clear. 

[Aragorn2002]

11 minutes ago, Huba said:

It seems that Lysychansk is already evacuated, or will be today, UA is retreating to Siversk - Bakhmut line. I don't think that RU can stop at that point though, liberating half of Donbas does not sound like a victory at all, they will have to continue. The unilateral ceasefire is going to be a mess indeed, but I really don't think the idea will catch traction in the West - it was stated by everyone that it's up to UA to decide, and Zelensky's terms to start negotiations is for RU to withdraw to Feb 24th. TBH, I have the impression that at least some western leaders have smelled the blood at this point and won't let go easily. For sure Johnson had, and I think Macron too. Nothing gives you more support than a victorious war after all.

UA retreating from Lysychansk under fire. Spirits seem to be high  :

 

 

Warriors.

[The_MonkeyKing]

30 minutes ago, paxromana said:

So they'll provide sitting duck targets for UA Artillery in Donbas instead of on Snake Island?

More masterly generalship from Herr Putler!

Well, the unilateral ceasefire would be more of a strategic pause for the Russians. With the current frontlines Ukraine is bleeding every moment and being totally unviable as a state.

Challenging diplomatic situation, when Germany and France and the rest are screaming for peace and UKR would prefer to get weapons to kick Russians out on get rid of the Russian stranglehold.

[The_MonkeyKing]

UKR had to have moved artillery to island Kubanskiy

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

UKR had to have moved artillery to island Kubanskiy

And it seems they used the prototype of the Bogdana SPH - perfect use for a single non-standard piece, a mini Anzio-Annie 

[Taranis]

Ukrainian army fully controls Potyomkyne village in Kherson region
https://t.me/UkraineNow/14102

 

Quote

The Ukrainian military liberated the village of Potyomkyne in the Kherson region from the occupiers

"The local population of Potyomkyne sighed with relief, and the Ukrainian military is pleased with the result. With confidence in their eyes and restrained smiles on their lips, our guys promise to keep

 

Edited June 30, 2022 by Taranis

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Putin commented on the war's progress. Apart from usualBS about Russias safety etc. he outlined what the RU goal is: "liberation" of Donbas. It seems the official war goals have been reduced, and it highlights what can be expected from the Russians in upcoming months - a push on Slovyansk/ Kramatorsk has to continue.

I roughly translated the whole article. It is not just Putin thoughts. It is RU official point of view that will be distributed to the ordinary RU citizens. This is what they will be told to think and reply to when talking with heinous foreigners. 

Quote

Putin stated that the liberation of Donbass and the security of the Russian Federation is the ultimate goal of SMO in Ukraine

Moscow. June 29. INTERFAX.EN - Russian troops, carrying out a special operation in Ukraine, are moving and reaching the set boundaries, but it is not worth talking about the timing of its completion, or how to speed up these deadlines, said Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"Nothing has changed, I would say, in the early morning of February 24. I said it directly, publicly, to the whole country, to the whole world. I have nothing to add to this. Nothing has changed," Putin told reporters when asked about the goals of the special military operation.

At the same time, he stressed that the tactics of achieving the goal may be different.

"The tactics proposed by the Ministry of Defense, the General Staff, where to move the troops, where to remove them, which objects to hit, what to do during at the time, when several our groups were there in the center of Ukraine, what should have been done in the Donbass from 2014 (the Kiev regime has been preparing for this for a long time), therefore, some distracting actions were carried out there," the president said. [Skipping the foot in the mouth, Putin again pushed the lie that RU advance to Kiev was a distraction to prevent UKR army from advancing in LDNR region)

Putin noted that although he is the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, he did not graduate from the General Staff Academy.

"I trust those people who are professionals, they act as they see fit to achieve the ultimate goal," he said.

"The ultimate goal I have outlined is the liberation of Donbass, the protection of these people, and the creation of conditions that would guarantee the security of Russia itself. That's all. And the work goes on calmly, rhythmically. Well, as you can see, the troops are moving and reaching the boundaries that are set as objective at a certain stage of this combat work. Everything is going according to plan," Putin said.

"Well, there is no need to talk about deadlines, and I never talk about it, because this is life, these are real things. It is wrong to speed it up to fit a deadline," the President of the Russian Federation added.

He explained that this issue is related to the intensity of the fighting, and the intensity is directly linked to possible losses.

"And first of all we have to think about how to save the lives of our guys," Putin said. 

About the situation in Kremenchuk

Putin stressed that the Russian army does not strike civilian targets in Ukraine and there was no terrorist attack in the shopping center in Kremenchuk.

"There is no terrorist attack there. I know, and we have said it many times, we have shown it, you can see from drones when they place weapons, MLRS complexes, artillery, heavy equipment in general in residential areas, somewhere else. We do not shoot just in general direction of the targets," he said.

The President of the Russian Federation noted that, "as a rule, this [a strike] is done according to the results of the reconnoitering of the  targets."

"I am sure that in this case it was all the same. Well, they hide the equipment, which is especially delivered by the West, in all sorts of hangars, markets, factories, workshops, where the equipment is repaired, or put in order after a long period of delivery from abroad. The Russian army does not strike at any civilian objects," Putin said. [No comments]

The Russian President stressed that this is not necessary.

"We have every opportunity to determine what is where. And with the availability of modern high-precision long-range weapons, we achieve these goals," he said. [No comments]

"But of course I will find out the details when I return to Moscow," Putin added.

About the confrontation between Russia and the West

Putin noted that the call of Western countries for Ukraine to abandon negotiations with Russia confirms that everything is being done according to the imperial ambitions of the united West. 

"Ukraine behaved worse with us then better from some point on. We agreed on something, then they reneged on their agreements, sorry for the bad manners, drove off, moved away. But the call for Ukraine to continue fighting and the call to abandon further negotiations only confirms our assumptions that Ukraine is not the goal, the good of the Ukrainian people is not the goal of the united West and NATO," he said.

"This is a means to protect their own interests. That is, by the hands of Ukrainians/the Ukrainian people, the NATO members and the leading NATO countries simply want to additionally assert themselves, to assert their role in the world, to confirm not just leadership, but their hegemonism in the literal sense of the word, their imperial ambitions," he added. 

According to him, Western countries "have always talked about their exclusivity, introduced into the consciousness of the world community the thesis and slogan that "whoever is not with us is against us."

"This is all a manifestation of the same policy," the president said.

According to him, NATO's readiness to confront Moscow since 2014 is not news for us, Russia's decisive actions to protect its interests are explained by this.

"We have to treat this as a fact. The fact that they have been preparing for some kind of active actions against us since 2014 is not news to us. This explains our decisive actions to protect our own interests," Putin said.

First of all, according to him, the United States needed an external enemy around whose alleged threats it would be possible to unite allies.

"Well, Iran was not very suitable for this role, Russia is better suited. We gave them such a chance - to unite all the allies around us on a new historical turn," the President of the Russian Federation noted.

He added that these statements once again confirm what Russia has been saying all the time.

"Namely, that the NATO bloc is a vestige of a past era, the era of the Cold War. We were told all the time that NATO had changed, that it was now more of a political alliance, but everyone was looking for a reason and an opportunity to give them a new impetus as a military organization. Well, here you are, they are doing it. There is nothing new for us here," Putin said. 

The Russian President added that the West has begun to turn Ukraine into a springboard to shake up the situation in Russia.

They have started to make Ukraine an anti-Russia, a springboard to try to somehow shake Russia itself, they have started to fight against Russian culture, the Russian language, they have begun to persecute people who feel part of the Russian world," he said. 

"They will create such an anti-Russian bridgehead near our borders, and we will constantly live under this threat, under this sword of Damocles," Putin said. [Current RU regime will never accept independent UKR]

He also commented on the words of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who said that if the Russian president had been a woman, he would not have started a war. Putin recalled that it was Margaret Thatcher who made a similar decision.

"I'm not going to say now if or what would have happened. In this connection, I just want to recall the events of recent history, when Margaret Thatcher decided to launch military operations against Argentina for the Falkland Islands. So, the woman decided to start military operations. Where are the Falkland Islands, and where is Britain?" - Putin said. [He means Falkland islands are far away from Britain to be British, so Thatcher decision to fight Argentine was deeply amoral for Brits to lecture Putin about starting SMO against UKR.] 

"And this is dictated by nothing other than imperial ambitions, confirmation of its imperial status. Therefore, I think that, in any case, from the current Prime Minister of Great Britain, this is not a very correct reference to what is happening today," the Russian leader stressed.

On the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO

Putin noted that Russia and Sweden and Finland, in respect of which the decision to join NATO was made, do not have the same problems as Ukraine, if these countries want to join the alliance, then Russia is not against it.

"As for Sweden and Finland. We do not have such problems with Sweden and Finland, which, unfortunately, we have with Ukraine. We have no territorial issues and disputes, we have nothing that could bother us from the point of view of Finland's or Sweden's membership in NATO. Well, they want it - please," the President of the Russian Federation said. 

At the same time, he added: "Only they should clearly and clearly understand that while there were no threats to them in the past, now if military contingents and infrastructure are deployed there, we will have to respond in a mirror way and create the same threats to the territories in which threats to us appear."

"These are obvious things. Don't they understand that? Everything was fine with us, well, now there will be some tensions, this is obvious, of course, it is impossible without it. I repeat, only if threats are created," the Russian president said.

According to Putin, the thesis of the NATO leadership, that Russia fought against the expansion of the alliance (Ukraine membership), but with the entry of Sweden and Finland into the bloc RU got the opposite effect, has no basis.

"The thesis that we fought against the expansion of NATO with membership of Ukraine, and now we got membership of Sweden and Finland - it has no serious grounds," the Russian leader said.

He stressed that the membership of Finland and Sweden in NATO is not the same as the entry of Ukraine into the alliance. 

"These are completely different things. They understand this perfectly well, they just throw this thesis into public opinion to show: "aha, Russia did not want it, but now it has received it back in double." No, it's a completely different thing. And we are aware of this, and they understand it," Putin said.

However, they do this in order to substitute these concepts and show that Russia allegedly does not achieve the desired result, he noted.

"They will not mislead us with this. Well, I want Sweden and Finland, let them join. We have such rude jokes: "today we will step into something, then into something else [implying crap]." That's their business. Let them enter wherever they want," the President of the Russian Federation said.

 

Girkin comment regarding above

Quote

I will not criticize the president. I will note only two points:

1. The President, apparently, does not really comprehend what is happening in the active army, of which he is the commander-in-chief. Otherwise, he would not say "about trusting professionals" (Shoigu is a military professional! What a joke!). [Shoigu is neither military, nor a governmental professional. He has reputation of PR man who cannot really manage anything)
2. No matter how much anyone in the Kremlin would like - the war will not end with the liberation of Donbass. T.N. "SVO" [Special Military Operation] - maybe. But not the war.

 

My personal comment is looks like Putin is having issues formulating his thoughts. Possibly his mental health is indeed declining.

[Grigb]

From civilian "Girkin" aka Nesmiyan

Quote

The production of passenger cars in the Russian Federation in May 2022 practically stood up, having collapsed in annual terms by 30.3 times (by 96.7%) and having more than halved in 5 months (by 56.4%), from the data of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (Rosstat).

In May, only 3.7 thousand cars were produced in Russia, which is 5.3 times (81.3%) less than in April this year. In total, 268 thousand passenger cars were produced in the Russian Federation in January-May.

Trucks in the Russian Federation in May 2022 were produced 7.6 thousand units (-39.3% YoY and -38.2% by April). For 5 months, their production, as follows from Rosstat data, amounted to 60.1 thousand units, which is 12% less than in January-May 2021.

 

[Taranis]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

From civilian "Girkin" aka Nesmiyan

 

I guess according to the Russian government, it's because Russia is launching another special military operation against global warming

[Grigb]

From civilian "Girkin" aka Nesmiyan  overall state of RU economy

Quote

Ministry of Economic Development: the main factors of the decline in the GDP of the Russian Federation remain transport and logistics restrictions and a reduction in domestic demand.

The ministry noted that the decline in Russia's GDP in May deepened to 4.3% from 2.8% in April.

Yesterday, the data was published that real wages decreased depending on industries from 4-5 percent to more than 10. At the same time, one of the worst situations is in the public sector. Despite nominal wage growth, it lags far behind the inflation.

It is logical that in the current conditions, people tighten their belts, reduce consumption, which in itself has a depressing effect on the economy, forcing them to reduce production, which means that the manufacturer will be forced to compensate for its decline by "squeezing" wages and rising prices. It is a vicious circle, and it is not yet clear when this process will not only stop, but even slow down.

 

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Taranis said:

I guess according to the Russian government, it's because Russia is launching another special military operation against global warming

It is an unofficial joke now.

Quote

But there is also good news: now Russia will exceed the emissions reduction plan. A herd of cattle has long been cut to the pre-war (1941) level and does not pollute the atmosphere with methane emissions any more, now transport pollution is eliminated, and if we take into account the death of industry as such, then industrial emissions will gradually come to naught. The population without work and without money will also consume significantly less, having partially died out, and again, the environmental burden on the territory will significantly decrease. Solid advantages.

Oligarchs and high officials, of course, will continue to eat in three throats and **** in two asses, but in any case, they will not be able to stop the fall of the damned greenhouse gases.

Profit is all around. Greta Thunberg and Klaus Schwab will be pleased.

Putin won again!

[Ultradave]

12 hours ago, Machor said:

The Army had originally described MPF more in terms of a spiritual successor to the Sheridan, which was not only air-transportable, but also air-droppable. The requirement for the new MPF to be parachutable onto the battlefield was subsequently dropped.

Interesting. I never saw or heard of a M551 being air-dropped while I was in the 82d. They were either air landed after a DZ was secured (C-130 on an improvised flight strip), or LAPES (Low Altitude Parachute Extraction System) - C-130 flies a couple feet off the ground with wheels down and the M551 is drogue chuted out the back on the same kind of platform used for a heavy drop parachute drop, skids to a stop. It's a tricky maneuver because of the low altitude and the shift of weight (and then loss of weight) in the aircraft. 

Looks like an interesting vehicle. Some direct fire support for infantry units could be very useful, as long as they are used so that they are not exposed. But then, that's not any worse than "exposing" your IFVs to AT fire, I suppose.

Dave