How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, sross112 said:

“There has been no communication with Moscow about these changes, nor is there a requirement to do that,” John Kirby, a spokesman for Biden’s National Security Council.

This quote shows how utterly Putin has destroyed Russia's position in the world order.  Normally NATO, even the US specifically, would fret about how Russia might react to some particular move, no matter how mild it might be.  Now it is moving a huge number of forces, permanently, to Poland and outright saying that Russia has no say in the matter, despite everybody knowing Russia's feelings about such a move.

To quote Girkin from Grigb's post on Page 966:

Quote

In any case, the goals of the special operation have failed, instead of NATO rolling back to the west, it has expanded to the east. In this context, a draw is not something we need to talk about.  And if we also take into account that the Russian army as an instrument of foreign policy is completely blocked on the territory of Ukraine today, and for as long as NATO will require it, then you can no longer look at the score on the scoreboard, and it's so clear who will go for the cup.

Seems even the hardcore nationalists understand Putin's defeat of Russia's strategic position with NATO.  The V Corps move underscores this.  I'm sure we'll hear from Girkin about this soon!

Steve

[The_Capt]

47 minutes ago, Slaughterhouse-Five said:

I think you are constantly confusing me with Putin or those who support him. I wrote just a fact. And you are ready to attack)

Attack?  Seriously?...well I am sorry if that is how you took it.  I was stating counter-facts and context.  Russian exports were about $330 B in 2020, right below Canada at $371B, much like GDP positions.  

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus#:~:text=Exports The top exports of,and Germany (%2414.2B).

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/can

My overall point being that beside playing the possible "I am an a@@ spoiler card" as outlined by GrigB Russian dreams of global power rest on historical delusion and nukes - not actual metrics of national power (i.e. DIME).  They had a slim case before this war, and a non-existent one now as a result of the damage they are triggering (seriously: UK and EU are something like 45% of the Russian market, and they just burned it).

Russia is not simply "not in the same league" as the US and China - they aren't even the same economic species:

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/usa

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/chn#:~:text=Exports The top exports of,and South Korea (%24110B).

Canada has more economic and diplomatic power than Russia right now, and likely has a better chance of forming a 3rd global power pole.

[Aragorn2002]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Quite a few of us here predicted that Turkey was simply negotiating to get something in return for supporting Sweden and Finland.  And sure enough... 

Steve

The mighty Sultan strikes again.

Edited June 29, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

It's purely for propaganda use in Turkey itself. 

From the list of things Turkey supposedly got for its vote on expansion, it seems it's mostly propaganda points.  Which makes me suspicious that NATO members played hardball and gave Erdogan something to save face with.

Steve

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

So all this hangs on "special", which is vague and does not have a common point of reference.  For example, for a small territorial defence force, any military operation outside of their own territory would be "special".

So what makes this current Russian operation "special"?  I frankly have no idea, beyond political manipulation; however, my questions are:

AFAIR from the explanation, special means conducted without military fighting by special means (like spec ops operators conducting covert sabotage). They wanted to drive to Kiev and pick up surrendered UKR POW without battles. That is a special operation to degrade UKR fighting capability.

However, by the rules the special operation was over as soon as UKR started resisting and it resulted in conventional battles. The Military operation/war has begun. But RU gov did not follow the rule. 

 

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

- It is not total war - so limited short term objectives with a clear exit strategy...?  I am sure the Russian plan may have looked that way but I am left wondering how they thought they were going to do it.  Maybe in Russian mindset anything not total war, is not war?

No. While RU gov are just bunch of crooks they still abide by formalities. After war declaration they had to implement wartime measures. Such measures, like mobilization, would be

1) Admittance of RU initial plan failure

2) Deeply unpopular to the point of rebellion.

So, they decided to stick to Special Military Operation name hoping for the best. 

 

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

- How is this less than full spectrum?  At this point the only thing the Russian have left off the table are WMDs (and there are arguments for thermobaric and DPICMs in this regard).

Propaganda. They are trying to pretend that slowness and lack of overwhelming sucess is because RU is not fighting using full force because they are trying to avoid civilian casualties. All photos and videos of civilian casualties and heavy damage are UKR fakes, crisis actors, previously died bodies or civilians executed by UKR themselves. It is all because heinous Ukrainians and heinous foreigners are trying to discredit Glorious RU Forces. 

[Battlefront.com]

There's another aspect to Russia's future as an energy exporter.  It's been a couple hundred pages since it's been brought up, but Russia's domestic capabilities to find, exploit, and export energy are heavily dependent upon foreign investment, technology, and partnerships.  This is yet another example of Russia's mistake of trying to be a world power while at the same time being completely dependent upon its enemies to do even the most basic things.  Russia could have invested billions into its own energy infrastructure, giving it real world power, but instead invested it into crappy bits of metal that now scatter the Ukrainian countryside.

Like so many other things Russia depends upon, the energy sector will experience shutdowns and accidents as the full effects of sanctions take hold. 

Steve

[danfrodo]

I am still waiting for the comedy section of today's news to start -- meaning what RU officials will say about Finland/Sweden taking huge step in the NATO process.  Should be good fun. 

[Harmon Rabb]

Good to hear that! Looking forward to seeing some videos of these guns in action.

[billbindc]

48 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I think Biden made a phone call to Erdogan. Nothing more.

Erdogan is facing a very tough election. He needed to look strong but for a reason and he got to appear at least to have received good concessions. He also likely gets US military aid that Turkey really needs in the form of F-16's. 

It was the smart move and Erdogan handled it deftly. 

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Erdogan is facing a very tough election. He needed to look strong but for a reason and he got to appear at least to have received good concessions. He also likely gets US military aid that Turkey really needs in the form of F-16's. 

It was the smart move and Erdogan handled it deftly. 

Or the US did. They can now upgrade those jets with a good excuse and without pissing off the Greeks too much.

[danfrodo]

So it looks like UKR needs to withdraw from Lysychansk.  Too exposed and vulnerable.  Sad but not strategically very costly for Ukraine.  It will allow propaganda win for Putin, and allow RU to reposition forces, unfortunately.  But it does great simplify UKR defense, shortens the line, and allows UKR artillery to locate farther from danger while still in range to smash RU forces.

[billbindc]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

From the list of things Turkey supposedly got for its vote on expansion, it seems it's mostly propaganda points.  Which makes me suspicious that NATO members played hardball and gave Erdogan something to save face with.

Steve

The most obvious (and unspoken) fact of the negotiation is that it is Turkey loses the most strategically with a dominant Russian state on the Black Sea. Erdogan had to make this deal or know that he'd be blamed for eternity in not doing something to stop it.

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Pavel Kislyakov, Deputy Chief of Staff, Head of Operations, 11th Guards Separate Air-Assault Brigade:

Major Alexey Loshkarev, commmander 2nd Motor-Rifle Battalion, 136th Guards Separate Motor Rifle Brigade:

Rumored (The Sun, so awaiting confirmation) death by GMLRS of Col. Alexey Vasilyev, commander 137th Guards Airborne Regiment, 106th Guards Airborne Division:

https://www.the-sun.com/news/5647656/putins-56th-colonel-40-soldiers-killed-strikes-us/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebarweb

Edited June 29, 2022 by akd

[Centurian52]

12 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Definitely not a lot I disagree with from you. Is this still referenced as a special military operation in Russia? Has it become a war? I wonder about that.

They aren't calling it a war yet. Part of the hesitation to enact general mobilization is that it would require admitting that this is a war.

[Aragorn2002]

14 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Good to hear that! Looking forward to seeing some videos of these guns in action.

And about bloody time too. Another 6 are in the pipeline. Not nearly enough, but the Ukrainian army will put them to good use.

[FancyCat]

19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Honestly, it does not matter what Russia calls this, it is what it is, a war they started and one we need to finish.  But, and I stand by this, this cannot mean the complete destruction of Russia as a state - too many risks there.  So this will likely remain a limited war, or at least I really hope so, because the stakes are extremely high. 

I think it does matter what the Russian government terms it as, especially when explaining it to the Russian people, whom I've already detailed is the only force able to change the Russian leadership (I don't think Putin's grasp on the elite is gonna break and if it does break, we aren't gonna see signs of it till he's dead). If Putin says "special military operation" over without mobilization, without "war", say right now at current territorial gains, will the Russian people accept that? I've been mulling it over since we are watching Russia push hard for territory, when they should honestly play defensively and my only conclusion is once he feels like he has enough, he's gonna declare it over, demand a ceasefire and spin it so that Russia is the more principled one looking for peace, and Ukraine is being unreasonable. (Which they aren't, but Russia is stewing in its own reality) and that will matter as Putin tries his best to divide the west and dry up support for Ukraine.

As for the unrealistic aspersions of Russia and Putin, I can only point out that (I believe this invasion was decided way before 2020) Putin almost got a anti-NATO, pro-Russian President of the U.S that had he won his 2nd term, intended on removing the U.S from NATO, breaking the SK-US alliance, and somehow I doubt would have been as forthcoming with aid for Ukraine as the current president is.

Putin I think knows he's outclassed militarily, but his mastery of internal subversion I think he was assuming would prevail, I believe was pretty close to paving a path where Ukraine would have been standing alone, and while yes, rebellions and guerilla warfare but I think the west still gets a huge defeat in soft power and influence it cannot recover in the event of Ukraine's annexation and yes Russia's military is outclassed, but the annexation of Ukraine would have substantially increased Russia's position and influence.

Also, someone made a good point, Russia uses Ukrainians against each other...and while I'm sure resistance and unrelenting independence furor will remain, but Ukraine had become a part of a Russian Empire previously, and I think it would be folly to say it wouldn't occur again had Putin annexed the whole country.

And I gotta underline with Ukraine absorbed into Russia, it really does have a chance at piercing into NATO. I mean the dockyards at Mykolaiv did make the Moskva, and the Admiral Kuznetsov carrier. (Yes yes corruption but that didn't stop Russia from almost destroying NATO from the inside)

Now I agree with a ton of what you stated, but I think it isn't too irrational to be Putin and think I don't have a decent chance at annexing Ukraine.

[Harmon Rabb]

Some more good news. Some of the brave defenders of Azovstal made it home.

[danfrodo]

23 minutes ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Pavel Kislyakov, Deputy Chief of Staff, Head of Operations, 11th Guards Separate Air-Assault Brigade:

Major Alexey Loshkarev, Self-Propelled Artillery Battalion commander (I think), 136th Guards Separate Motor Rifle Brigade:

Rumored (The Sun, so awaiting confirmation) death by GMLRS of Col. Alexey Vasilyev, commander 137th Guards Airborne Regiment, 106th Guards Airborne Division:

https://www.the-sun.com/news/5647656/putins-56th-colonel-40-soldiers-killed-strikes-us/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebarweb

OK, this is just getting ridiculous.  It's like I am watching some kind of parody show.  They are losing high ranking officers (major & above) at an absolutely unbelievable rate.  Between the ammo & officer losses lately, it's hard to see how RU can do anything more than their very current local offensive actions.  What a mess.   

[Huba]

 

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

Well done, Canada!

[danfrodo]

and on the subject of american victims of Putin's criminality, there's hostage taking.  Specifically Britney Greiner, WNBA star.  Also there's another guy currently held hostage, name Whelan (sp?).  The reporter here talks about what Russia is up to on this.  Also they discuss the amount of coverage relative to her level of famousness (meaning Greiner is not Serena Williams level famous).

I get that this seems trivial relative to the numbers of Ukranians killed, maimed, displaced, kidnapped by Putin.  

 

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

No. While RU gov are just bunch of crooks they still abide by formalities.

The fact that personnel like the Rosgvardiya who got lawyers and got themselves discharged instead of being deployed to Ukraine emphasizes for all the dictatorship and mafia structures, there is still a sort of legality, structure that can allow this to occur. I think it's important to recognize that wouldn't fly in wars or more aptly national wars for survival that the Russian state and government media is so frenzied about warning about NATO and EU. I wonder as part of the strategy to turn the Russian people apathetic, the bombardment of conflicting information makes it easier for people to accept changes in narrative without getting worked up over it. So maybe Russians might accept whatever happens in Ukraine, win or lose as long as Putin keeps the war losses limited to the volunteers or poor in Russian society and therefore out of sight and state media says all is well.

In that sense, it's important NATO does not escalate the conflict. If Putin wants to lie to the people, so be it, just get the hell out of Ukraine. No need to invade Russia. No need to generate actual patriotic fever with war with NATO that causes people to sign up for the army, that is something the state media can't control.

I really dunno why tens of thousands of Russian soldiers are dead, and Russian society is barely budging. I think as long as that persists, it would be a mistake to actually escalate rhetoric cause evidently, Russians don't really give a damn about the losses, why should we act and give them targets to focus their anger on.

What I'm saying is the base of the Russian people's attitude to this conflict seems much more softer than it should be. There is a disconnect between words and actions in Russia and it would be a mistake to not look into it and let Putin have his ****ty out, as long as Ukraine can join the EU and NATO pre-2014 borders, I don't give a damn about Russia.

Why slow-broiling the frog is important, bit by bit NATO kit in Ukraine improves and the lack of Russian coherent and strong response to stop it shows it's the right idea in ensuring that when Russia finally pulls the gas to Europe in desperation to stop the equipment flowing, we can go vainly "no, no we stop, we don't give anymore" as Ukraine wipes out every Russian ammo dump in the country.

Edited June 29, 2022 by FancyCat

[The_Capt]

28 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I think it does matter what the Russian government terms it as, especially when explaining it to the Russian people, whom I've already detailed is the only force able to change the Russian leadership (I don't think Putin's grasp on the elite is gonna break and if it does break, we aren't gonna see signs of it till he's dead). If Putin says "special military operation" over without mobilization, without "war", say right now at current territorial gains, will the Russian people accept that? I've been mulling it over since we are watching Russia push hard for territory, when they should honestly play defensively and my only conclusion is once he feels like he has enough, he's gonna declare it over, demand a ceasefire and spin it so that Russia is the more principled one looking for peace, and Ukraine is being unreasonable. (Which they aren't, but Russia is stewing in its own reality) and that will matter as Putin tries his best to divide the west and dry up support for Ukraine.

As for the unrealistic aspersions of Russia and Putin, I can only point out that (I believe this invasion was decided way before 2020) Putin almost got a anti-NATO, pro-Russian President of the U.S that had he won his 2nd term, intended on removing the U.S from NATO, breaking the SK-US alliance, and somehow I doubt would have been as forthcoming with aid for Ukraine as the current president is.

Putin I think knows he's outclassed militarily, but his mastery of internal subversion I think he was assuming would prevail, I believe was pretty close to paving a path where Ukraine would have been standing alone, and while yes, rebellions and guerilla warfare but I think the west still gets a huge defeat in soft power and influence it cannot recover in the event of Ukraine's annexation and yes Russia's military is outclassed, but the annexation of Ukraine would have substantially increased Russia's position and influence.

Also, someone made a good point, Russia uses Ukrainians against each other...and while I'm sure resistance and unrelenting independence furor will remain, but Ukraine had become a part of a Russian Empire previously, and I think it would be folly to say it wouldn't occur again had Putin annexed the whole country.

And I gotta underline with Ukraine absorbed into Russia, it really does have a chance at piercing into NATO. I mean the dockyards at Mykolaiv did make the Moskva, and the Admiral Kuznetsov carrier. (Yes yes corruption but that didn't stop Russia from almost destroying NATO from the inside)

Now I agree with a ton of what you stated, but I think it isn't too irrational to be Putin and think I don't have a decent chance at annexing Ukraine.

Fair points.  I agree that it might matter to the Russian people, there is history of this in their Afghanistan experience; however, as in Afghanistan, as the body count increases the reality of this war will grow.  To call it anything else is essentially lying to the public for political reasons.

Russia's threats in the subversive realm are likely the only vector of power delivery that they demonstrated a world class aptitude; however, we need to be careful here as to how much was them  and how much was us. But that point stands.  What I do not see is how to translate a global reach and influence in subversive or political warfare into a global power pole.  It can definitely support and reinforce it, but at some point "power is power" and a nation has to be able to demonstrate this across dimensions - Russia could not, and now can not.

One thing that I do disagree with is this sentiment that "Putin is in the drivers seat", that he somehow has the strategic initiative.  He does not, unless we cede it to him.  He can take the Donbas, declare victory and demand peace, play the 'wounded victim' card when UA keep kicking them in the crotch...the Ukrainians are not likely to roll over and we in the West would be seriously remis in trying to push for that.  It essentially gives Russia a win that will come back and bite us all viciously later.   

The reality is that we, the West, are in the driver seat - we gots all the money and guns; what we seem to be shy on is the will.  We decide when this is over, not Russia.  We could pull all aid and support and this thing would end badly for Ukraine in a few weeks.  They would resist, I have no doubt of that, but it would be a long agonizing insurgency with no outside support.  Further, we decide when to stop holding Russian feet to flames, not Putin.  We can re-wire energy sectors and put Russia in the doghouse for a half-century if we are willing - we did exactly that to the Soviet Union.

Putin's only chance, and he has bet it all on this, is that we will split, falter and fail.  It is on us to see this for what it really is and not let that happen.  The good news is that so far we have done amazingly, far more than most ever expected, but do we have the will to go the distance?  That is the big question here.

 

[Harmon Rabb]

It all makes sense now.

So would this make Putin an MI6 agent and Ukrainians not Slavic folks?

[The_Capt]

29 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

Well we have to find one first....