How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

Guys, please.

Dont feed the trolls. Youre just spamming the thread with endless posts ranting at each other.

No opinions are going to change and you're just bloating the thread with pointless diatribes. I dont agree with DMS but he has a ridiculously easy time pulling a reaction, derailing the thread and degrading its quality with nothing worthwhile being added.

Please, wise up. Stop wasting your time, stick him on ignore and bang, problem solved.

Alternatively start another tread and have at it there. 

 

[cesmonkey]

10 hours ago, THH149 said:

What's the Russain response to long range HIMARS etc fires? I presume there's some kind of countermeasures.

 

What about a long range drone turned into a kamikaze drone?

[billbindc]

5 hours ago, DMS said:

It's ironic that I read this topic to find another source of information and avoid official propaganda, but I find here confirmation of official propaganda scary tales about NATO leaders who plan to destroy and disintegrate Russia. (Well, you are not NATO leaders - but if public is ok with that, why leaders would not) And you ask: why Russians are stuck around that disgusting government. Because they (we) are scared of you, Putin is bad, but if he looses - here come people like Haiduk, who "will show Sudetes" and your collaborators like Grig, who will help disintegrating Russia. No way out. Ok, then we are cornered rats.

I'm curious...no way out from what? Put another way...what were you escaping from by attacking Ukraine?

(note: this is a real question and if you want to take it off public feel free to message me)

 

Edited June 28, 2022 by billbindc

[chuckdyke]

What about CM players in Russia now?

https://twitter.com/pcgamer/status/1539240968100118536?s=20&t=7w8sxXxxK2XBNgfYPQsiLQ

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Video of missiles hitting Kremenchuk, scary stuff:

 

 

Impacts geolocated by this video. Both Kh-22 missiles should hit the factory, but one hit the mall directly, the second (1:23) hit the end building of the factory, so both missiles with 500m of CEP failed to seriously damage the factory, but hit civilian object, caused the death at least 20 citizens and 59 were injured (25 of them hostitalized). But resque works still ongoing. Total about 40 calls about missed people was registered by local police.

Amstor after Kh-22 dirct hit.

Places of impacts

Amstor pointed with red Google mark and the second hit with red ellipse. About 500 m between hits. The lake is above.

The factory territory

Second missile hit nearby the factory buildings, but shockwave caused destructions

 

[Grigb]

Girkin assessment of UKR withdrawal from Lisichansk. 

Quote

During yesterday and last night, the enemy, hiding behind weak rearguard, carried out a rapid withdrawal from Lisichansk and the surrounding area. In some areas, the enemy's withdrawal was so fast that the LDNR Armed Forces units were unable to closely pursue him due to the almost complete absence of combat wheeled and tracked vehicles. [Looks like RU either suffered heavy vehicle casualties or abandoned vehicle altogether.  Abandoning troop carriers en mass does happen when RU soldiers realize how dangerous they are for their own crews. For example, infamous Maykop "brigade" decided to abandon BMPs when fighting at the train station in Grozny in 1994. It was a smart decision as later all who remounted BMPs to escape were killed, including colonel Savin] 

Currently, fierce fighting is only going on "in the neck" of the bag [another name for boiler], where the enemy holds positions in order to give an exit to as many of his troops as possible. Up to half of the city has already been abandoned by the enemy, its cleaning is underway. The enemy also abandoned their positions on the Seversky Donets north of Lisichansk and our units have already crossed the river there.
Apparently, the battle for Lisichansk will end within the next few  days (or slightly longer), and the general operation will end this week.

The operation will end when our troops pursuing the retreating units of the AFU will hit the newly organized defense line near Seversk.

In general, the enemy has already suffered and will inevitably suffer heavy losses during the retreat (primarily in equipment). But it will keep the bulk of the experienced manpower. In this case, on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the primacy of military expediency over political propaganda is evident. On the part of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation - a tactical victory. - The creation of a "cauldron" with the complete destruction of the enemy's Svereodonets-Lisichansk grouping - could not be achieved, despite all efforts and very sensitive (in total for a month and a half) losses. As a "plus" - Lisichansk will not be destroyed to the ground during prolonged street battles.

In general, we managed to "torture" [to very slowly and ineffectively finish a job, in this case capture] Lisichansk .

 

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 

Impacts geolocated by this video. Both Kh-22 missiles should hit the factory, but one hit the mall directly, the second (1:23) hit the end building of the factory, so both missiles with 500m of CEP failed to seriously damage the factory, but hit civilian object, caused the death at least 20 citizens and 59 were injured (25 of them hostitalized). But resque works still ongoing. Total about 40 calls about missed people was registered by local police.

Amstor after Kh-22 dirct hit.

Places of impacts

Amstor pointed with red Google mark and the second hit with red ellipse. About 500 m between hits. The lake is above.

The factory territory

Second missile hit nearby the factory buildings, but shockwave caused destructions

 

In honest, I don't believe they aimed at the mall on purpose. But to launch a crappy old missile that is accurate to few hundred meters against target in the middle of busy town is no less barbaric, they just don't care about the collateral damage at all.

[The_Capt]

So I encourage everyone to simmer down a bit - it is not like we are going to solve it here.  We all have opinions that are influenced by current events, and the heat is understandable.  I would offer that we perhaps take a step back and maybe take a bit more pragmatic view of this whole thing.

As far as I can see many seem to be weighing in on the strategic end state for Russia; however, this cannot be viewed in glorious isolation:

Western Strategic Endstate - this is a gross oversimplification because "The West" is comprised of many nations, all with their own interests; however, we can probably sum up the western desired end-state as a "manageable version of the former status quo".  In simpler terms, the west just wants the stability and order they have enjoyed for 30+ years so we can all stay rich - while at the same time allowing that wealth to slowly distribute globally.  Kind of a weird global trickle down theory of wealth but if you crunch the numbers it actually happened, although not nearly as fast or as equitable as a lot of people wanted.  The West wants to remain top dog globally and ensure that it holds the pen that writes the global order.

Ukrainian Endstate - beyond basic survival, Ukraine will be focused on security and integrity of its state.  It needs to be secure and free from what is happening right now in all its forms, and allowed to chart its own destiny as a collective entity within the international community.  I think that Ukraine in the EU and NATO is almost a certainty as elements of that end-state. In fact being within NATO is about the only guarantor of security for any nation neighboring Russia right now.  NATO is too big to fail and even Russia recognizes that triggering an Article 5 above recognized conflict thresholds is suicide. 

Russian Endstate - Only China and its growing global power is a viable challenger to the western bloc - and Russia already knows this, Putin's pipedream of somehow re-creating a third global power pole around Russia was weak-tea for domestic consumption.  So wither goes Russia?  

Well first off, I get the heat and anger...and it is well deserved; however, the idea that the endstate is the elimination of the Russian people, as a people, is a dead end.  We would break that Western Endstate if we endorsed a war of extermination in any form - so be angry, but western support will dry up the instant we get into the "destruction of Russia" territory.  Beyond the disruption to the global order this is just a bad idea for so many reasons, all centered on the fact that Russia currently holds roughly 6000 nuclear warheads. 

Now I know some will say - "Ya but they are all under tight control in concentrated areas" - well good for them; however, if Russia fractures into several smaller states or duchies or freaking warlord centric tribes we basically have the worst parts of Africa with the power to kill millions rolling around the floor.  Make all the arguments you like, we dodged a bullet in '91 and this would be a lot worse than that because we are not talking about dissolution into already semi-functioning former vassal states, we are talking new states and non-state entities.   For example, what happens when a break away semi-state decides that a 500 year old grudge is worth firing off nuclear weapons?  What happens when a non-state group decides that Ukraine is to blame?  Or the EU?  Or the US?  Way too many factors to control and recall my rant on relative rationality, it gets more relative the smaller the social structure you are looking at.

So no, I am sorry, but the break up of Russia or total dissolution is not on the grown ups table, and likely will not be unless we are talking WW3.  Too many of our interests are threatened by this eventuality, to the point that if it did happen we would likely be talking about the largest intervention operation in history to secure those nukes, and we are highly likely to miss some. 

The contraction of Russia, however, is definitely on the table.  As I wrote previously, Russia must be punished, be seen to be punished, and know it has been punished.  In the West, I frankly suspect that we do not care what government rules Russia - so long as it is rationale, reasonable and we can rely on it for normal business.  We do business and support dictators around the world right now (e.g. Saudi Arabia) and frankly could care less if another one rules Russia with an iron fist...so long as they stay in their lane and know their place.  So regime change is also very likely on the table, the US has already signaled this.  As is, the serious reduction in the Russian economy its ability to sustain military power is definitely on the table.  This is to ensure that it cannot threaten its neighbors for some time; time to build security guarantees with any and all neighboring nations that want them...why?  Because stability.

So what is the strategic endstate for Russia?  Contracted, Compressed, Constrained, and most importantly Contained...but not Shattered.  We need a semi-functioning state in the penalty-box, cooperating in war crimes trials and paying reparations, selling off its nuclear stockpile "in kind for destruction"...all the while still selling cheap energy to us and not China.  Russia's deep cultural dysfunction needs to be in a box where it can be happy at how miserable it is and leave the rest of us alone...not thrown up all over the geopolitical dance floor with a nuclear weapon in hand and mascara running down its tear soaked face while it blames us for "wanting to sleep with every other nation in the bar!!"

Edited June 28, 2022 by The_Capt

[Huba]

2 hours ago, Taranis said:

VABs are/were everywhere (at least until I left) in the French army. Each unit has them from infantry (although the VBCI largely equipped the 1st RI) to artillery, via signals and engineers (even the gendarmerie!). In my case, it was the 120mm mortar towing vehicle but it was also used for orientation (for 120mm mortars), for transporting ammunitions but also for platoon command (mortar and CAESAR). I'm not surprised at all that there are a lot of them

PS: However, it's not even worth thinking about its amphibious capability. I have NEVER seen a single VAB maintained for this.

PS2 : In Afghanistan, sorts of small cells of ERA were added on the vehicle to improve the armour. So it's a possibility. Finally, in the video we see boxes that on the roof at the rear 3/4 of the vehicle. They are simply storage box to leave more room for the men inside. It is a practice that appeared towards Afghanistan because it was there the first time that I saw this practice.

So what is your general opinion about the VAB? Is it a well liked vehicle, or something people have to put up with? The technical specifications can be found online, but this kind of insight would be great

And another question. I just read an article (in Polish) about French equipment that could be potentially supplied to Ukraine by French army, and it's quite a list. Apart from VABs, author mentiones ECR-90s and AMX-10RC,  as well as AMX-10P as that you supposedly have hundreds of in storage. But he also mentions AMX-30 AuF1 and AuF2. Of the first type there might be even upt to two hundred vehicles in storage, and around 30 of the AuF2 type also. I wasn't aware that France has that much stuff stored, would you know if that's true, and in what state those guns might be?

Edited June 28, 2022 by Huba

[billbindc]

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So I encourage everyone to simmer down a bit - it is not like we are going to solve it here.  We all have opinions that are influenced by current events, and the heat is understandable.  I would offer that we perhaps take a step back and maybe take a bit more pragmatic view of this whole thing.

etc...

Endorse all of this. This war...for the West at least...is about stability. And the strategic thinking as far as I can tell isn't focused on any end state yet other than "how can Ukraine win without anyone triggering WWIII". 

[Combatintman]

3 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Still Australia still has not replaced the M113 t is heavily modified and equipped with thermals the .50 Browning is replaced too with a 76 mm L5A1 gun. The big thing is it can cross rivers like the Russian IFV. The armour is only proof against light infantry weapons. Australia is in the process to replace the old workhorse. The German Lynx is the likely candidate. 

The M-113 FSVs with the 76mm L5A1 were palmed off by the ARA to the chockos in 1979 who retired them in 1986.

[chuckdyke]

7 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

The M-113 FSVs with the 76mm L5A1 were palmed off by the ARA to the chockos in 1979 who retired them in 1986.

Thanks for your information. Here is the article in wikipedia. In May 2022 the Australian Government announced it was donating 14 M113s to Ukraine as part of Australia's assistance for the country following its invasion by Russia. At this time 40 Bushmasters had also been donated to Ukraine.

M113 armoured personnel carriers in Australian service - Wikipedia At least they will be replaced in the next few years. The one with the Saladin Turret is on display at the old artillery barracks near Fremantle. 

[Haiduk]

This morning new strikes on LPR/Russian ammunitions storages and military bases in occupied part of Luhansk oblast

The second strike on Stakhanov (Kadiivka). Reportedly hit in dachas area caused big fire and black smoke

 

Strike on Perevalsk, locals say military base was hit, many wounded

LPR "authorities" showed fragments of GMLRS M30 with cluster warhead, which hit Perevalsk

Edited June 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[Harmon Rabb]

Looks like that oil rig that was hit by the Ukrainian military in the Black sea is still burning.

[Slaughterhouse-Five]

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

from your aggressive policy toward Europe, comrade.

I am... I...well. I am not pursuing my aggressive policy toward Europe. I am not pursuing any policy, because I'm ordinary man in one Eastern-european dictatorship. Here's the thing. Comrade.

[BlackMoria]

9 minutes ago, Slaughterhouse-Five said:

I am... I...well. I am not pursuing my aggressive policy toward Europe. I am not pursuing any policy, because I'm ordinary man in one Eastern-european dictatorship. Here's the thing. Comrade.

Right now.  But when this war drags on long enough that your name comes up on the conscription lists and you have your conscription letter in hand.... what then?   Something to think about...

[Huba]

More stuff going boom, Berdyansk this time:

 

[FancyCat]

I doubt regime change is on the table, none of Europe except maybe Britain has any stomach for that, but I doubt the U.K is keen on the idea of regime change as a concept to be promoted, and I seriously doubt the current U.S government is inclined under Biden to seek out regime change.

For the purposes of punishment of Russia for launching the war, certainly Putin is marked with a stain that cannot leave Russia until he leaves power but I argue that the West's objective in insisting Russia gets rid of Putin, is more aimed to Putin that he crossed a line he cannot walk back rather than a attempt at regime change. Considering the laxness at earlier Russian actions, I think it's a reaction partly to compensate for the prior inaction as Putin will take any signal at weakness as positivity for his current course.

I actually contest that Russia and Putin understand that Russia is unable to form a third pole to compete against China or the West and that it's only for domestic consumption, in that your separating the elite from the mass of Russia in their goals. It's far more likely the elite, and Putin are true believers in this project.

I seriously doubt you can have a pilant regime willing to engage in war crimes trials, and reparations without the change in Russian culture needed to allow such a regime to exist. As I already stated I doubt a regime change occurring from external pressure, so internal is the only way it occurs, but if Russian culture does not change, then the conditions preventing a environment where war crimes trials and reparations remain. Nuclear disarmament is certainly off limits without change to Russian culture and mindset.

To prempt DMS, it is far more likely the West has decided simply to punish Russia and deter Russia rather than seek to change Russia on the inside. If Russia wants to be ****ty, so be it, but we don't have to stand and listen to it and we certainly aren't going to try and change its mind to try and get them to see they are wrong, but if Russia tries to take Ukraine again, they get punched in the face rightly.

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

So what is the strategic endstate for Russia?  Contracted, Compressed, Constrained, and most importantly Contained...but not Shattered.  We need a semi-functioning state in the penalty-box, cooperating in war crimes trials and paying reparations

I agree voices calling for the "final solution" on the russian nation are rather shortsighted. But wouldn't also what you propose kinda resemble Germany post WW1? 

[Slaughterhouse-Five]

5 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Right now.  But when this war drags on long enough that your name comes up on the conscription lists and you have your conscription letter in hand.... what then?   Something to think about...

Something to think about... my aggressive policy toward Europe! Of course. About what else?

Is it me or are you accusing me in absentia?

[The_Capt]

Just now, panzermartin said:

I agree voices calling for the "final solution" on the russian nation are rather shortsighted. But wouldn't also what you propose kinda resemble Germany post WW1? 

Possibly, at least in the short term.  However, unlike containment of Germany through a punitive formal treaty the form projected on Russia would likely be better served by a version of the Cold War strategy of containment through alignment with everyone afraid of them - until we can negotiate with something rational inside Russia itself.

Like WW1 Germany, it may very well bring the crazies out of the woodwork; however, here we may have to get pulled into subversive active measures to ensure that they do not get "too crazy".  Also like pre-WW2, the bill is on us with respect to resolve - if that fails we could be back to this in 25 years.

Do not get me wrong, this is a mess that will need to be actively managed for at least a generation or two...that is what 24 Feb really meant.

 

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, panzermartin said:

I agree voices calling for the "final solution" on the russian nation are rather shortsighted. 

Just to set records straight - there was no anywhere in this tread any mention of extermination of RU people.

it is the RU side that keeps mentioning extermination because they believe break up of RU empire = extermination of RU race. 

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I agree voices calling for the "final solution" on the russian nation are rather shortsighted. But wouldn't also what you propose kinda resemble Germany post WW1? 

What happened to Germany was not entirely justified, but in case of Russia this is exactly what they deserve. Will that radicalize them even more? Perhaps, but in comparison to Nazi Germany, Russia is really very weak when compared to the countries that oppose it. After Ukraine is admitted to NATO, Russia can stew in its revanchism as long as it pleases.

What I'm afraid is rather a North Korean scenario. If Russia has enough internal stability to suffer a total defeat in Ukraine (i.e. being pushed out of Donbas and Crimea) and not collapse politically, what then? A decade of Sitzkrieg with occasional cruise missile bombardment or cross-border raid? Driving on Moscow?

[panzermartin]

11 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Just to set records straight - there was no anywhere in this tread any mention of extermination of RU people.

it is the RU side that keeps mentioning extermination because they believe break up of RU empire = extermination of RU race. 

I don't know, I'm reading this thread since day 1 and I have encountered quite a few posts about the "fundamentally flawed", since the dawn of times, russians. 

[Der Zeitgeist]

31 minutes ago, Huba said:

More stuff going boom, Berdyansk this time:

 

This looks like the Russians are demo'ing the wreck of the Alligator class that is still lying there. It's the exact location.