How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

18 minutes ago, sburke said:

Lithuania enforces EU sanctions on goods to Russia’s Kaliningrad (msn.com)

Part of Russian twittosphere is already suffling theory that NATO wants to starve Kaliningrad and try to provoke Russia into attacking Suwałki Gap. Probably riding on T-34-s.

[poesel]

49 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

What I'm saying is it appears that Russia uses both GLONASS and GPS systems.

IIRC Russia forced all mobile phones that are allowed to be sold in Russia to be able to use GLONASS, too. Which is true for iPhones since number 8. So I guess that nowadays one chip would (at least) support both system to save space. So everyone uses both system anyway.
Which in turn means that if you want to jam sat-nav systems you have to jam them all.

 

[sburke]

16 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Part of Russian twittosphere is already suffling theory that NATO wants to starve Kaliningrad and try to provoke Russia into attacking Suwałki Gap. Probably riding on T-34-s.

sad thing for Russia is they don't have enough forces available to even threaten Lithuania. So much for Imperial ambitions.

Edited June 18, 2022 by sburke

[Beleg85]

6 minutes ago, sburke said:

sad thing for Russia is that don't have enough forces available to even threaten Lithuania. So much for Imperial ambitions.

It seems it is NATO who is playing 5-dimensional chess now.

[dan/california]

15 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I truly hope you're right, but I fear I am.

Absent an undeniable battlefield defeat, I believe the 'cursed capacity for suffering' persists well past the fall. Galeev's 'North Korea' scenario, to me, is baked in. 

Its 2-5 year consequences for Russia will likely be catastrophic and civilisational. But that is cold comfort to Ukraine, which will also lose those years, and a generation permanently scarred, or forced abroad to eke out a living, or normalcy for its own children.

There is a reason I keep yelling for absolutely maximalist support for Ukraine, up to and including the commitment of NATO airpower. I still like the idea of selling them cruise missiles for a dollar a piece in mid flight as the they cross the Polish Border. And since we would be launching them we could even be sure they weren't aimed at Russia proper. I know people would scream escalation, but if the Russians wanted to escalate they long since. would have. Launching so many of them at snake Island the it got about five feet lower in elevation would be an outstanding demonstration that it was time to go home.

15 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

You must make statements like that when you enter a country by bringing your scripts. I am not an apologist for Russia,but be mindful of the medications you are on. Also, your airline could give you proper advice. 

Russia has never been a safe country for western tourists/business people. Hopefully they will trade him for one of their people eventually. 

12 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Normandy succeeded because of its air superiority over Western Europe. You need it over the Ukraine too to silence the Russian artillery. 

MLRS can get most of it done, well enough. The Ukrainians don't have to launch a massive amphibious operation.I mean NATO airpower would be better, but....

Edited June 19, 2022 by dan/california
spelling

[Harmon Rabb]

The Russian Navy is visiting another part of the Black sea which they are not welcome in.

[dan/california]

18 minutes ago, sburke said:

sad thing for Russia is that don't have enough forces available to even threaten Lithuania. So much for Imperial ambitions.

Imagine the morale of a Russian unit pulled out of the meat grinder in Ukraine and told "alright boys were attacking NATO now". 

[chrisl]

GPS, GLONASS, and Galileo all use one band in common, but Galileo and newer GPS satellites also use additional bands that are 350-400 MHz away.  
 

I think any modern consumer “GPS” device you buy in the west will use all three.

Depending on how broadband the jamming is, it could affect just older GPS and all GLONASS, or could affect them all.

[dan/california]

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare

Ammo production needs to be increased by a lot, and the ability to surge production in wartime needs to be increased by a LOT more. Build new highly automated plants with a work force sufficiently trained, and therefore paid, such that virtually every employee in the plant can do every production line job. Rotate people to different positions on a regular schedule. In peacetime you run one shift five days a week. Thus there are enough trained people that production can be increased by ~2.5 by going to a 24/7 almost instantly. I can't imagine a better job to give slightly disabled veterans. The fact this will take a while is reason to start right NOW.

[LongLeftFlank]

Worthwhile long thread, lotsa maps, by DefMon3 on Russian prospects for tackling -- six weeks late! -- Sloviansk-Kramatorsk. Taking this area would definitely unhinge UA defences in the Donbass, at long last.

He also examines the UKR advance into the forests towards Izium.

 

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

There is a reason I keep yelling for absolutely maximalist support for Ukraine, up to and including the commitment of NATO airpower. I still like the idea of selling them cruise missiles for a dollar a piece in mid flight as the they cross the Polish Border. And since we would be launching them we could even be sure they weren't aimed at Russia proper. I know people would scream escalation, but if the Russians wanted to escalate they long since. would have. Launching so many of them at snake Island the it got about five feet lower in elevation would be an outstanding demonstration that it was time to go home.

Russia has never been a safe country for western tourists/business people. Hopefully they will trade him for one of their people eventually. 

MLRS can get most of it done, well enough. The Ukrainians don't have to launch a massive amphibious operation.I mean NATO airpower would be better, but....

NOTE: these latter numbers remain heavily disputed.

Edited June 19, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Offshoot]

Was just about to post it from the source (https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3066864/fact-sheet-on-us-security-assistance-to-ukraine/).

For some reason the DoD fact sheet doesn't say the number of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems being sent. maybe because they haven't decided how many yet?

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Quality photojournalism: life in the trenches.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 19, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

22 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Gonzo journalist Butusov continues dancing close to the flame....

Lethal game of volleyball. Fetch the Roach, muthaf***a!

[health warning: pro-Russian sources above]

Russians are determined to take this city, one way or the other, progress on other fronts be damned. Although losing their Kherson bridgehead in exchange is going to hurt.

I am increasingly convinced they are looking to wind down their invasion of Ukraine and cut their massive losses.  They are looking to 'rationalise' a new frontier/front along various river lines and claim 'mission accomplished'.

They then go over to the defensive, fortify like mad and continue the attrition war, hoping to kill Ukrainian kids about 1 for 1. And start whining for a cease fire, 'plebiscites', peacekeepers and, of course, an end to sanctions.

Which the Chinese and other weasels (Erdogan?) will vigorously back, for reasons I don't want to sidetrack into again.

 

UA tank street fighting in Sieverdonetsk, good CM Level 3 style drone clip.

Poland's tax dollars hard at work.

For the future CM: Slava Ukraine! scenario design files:

 

 

 

Edited June 19, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[chuckdyke]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

Russia has never been a safe country for western tourists/business people.

Plenty of countries are not safe when it comes to our recreational drugs. The least you can do is have the right paperwork with you. Here you get 2 years' probation. In SE Asia you will be executed.  

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Plenty of countries are not safe when it comes to our recreational drugs. The least you can do is have the right paperwork with you. Here you get 2 years' probation. In SE Asia you will be executed.  

Yeah but the judge in Malaysia doesn't care about anything except the size of the bribe. In Russia, very much like Iran, there is a substantial risk of getting bleeped for geopolitical reasons. There are so many other places to go....

Edited June 19, 2022 by dan/california
dropped a word

[dan/california]

Great thread from the Aussie general. 

[dan/california]

It would be interesting to include a guess as to the composition of the "long war" armies in a module eventually.

[chuckdyke]

28 minutes ago, dan/california said:

There are so many other places to go...

Exactly I probably return to my home  next year where the use of our recreational drugs are punished by a SA Copy of the AK47. My advice listen to the travel advice of the country you call home. You always should have the last word.

[Grigb]

Fun story (might be photoshop but it still funny) about what RU business is really thinking about the situation. As you might know recently there was so called Internation Economic Forum. It's where main RU sicko was talking about usual sick RU stuff.

One of the biggest RU business media groups RBK had stand there. This is the photo of that stand with charade.

It supposed to say RBK is about: Business but for Russians it literally says RBK is about [how everything is] F*CKED UP

[Aragorn2002]

6 hours ago, dan/california said:

Imagine the morale of a Russian unit pulled out of the meat grinder in Ukraine and told "alright boys were attacking NATO now". 

[womble]

8 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Part of Russian twittosphere is already suffling theory that NATO wants to starve Kaliningrad and try to provoke Russia into attacking Suwałki Gap. Probably riding on T-34-s.

This is illustrative of the fantasy land that Russian propaganda has created. None of the EU sanctions that Lithuania is now enforcing affect food supplies in a material way. Kaliningrad might have some brownouts and stop being able to build anything, but vital infrastructure stuff should be the priority on the sea transport that RF has to replace the overland routes with.

When the other side is spouting nonsense like this, there's no arguing with them, unless you're a King, and then you have to use your last argument.

[chuckdyke]

Anybody who can say this with a straight face deserves some kind of recognition. I don't know what.

 

[womble]

27 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Anybody who can say this with a straight face deserves some kind of recognition. I don't know what.

 

Words mean what they want them to mean. Orwellian. According to the Russian dictionary, you probably have to have declared a war, and announced "this is an invasion" for it to be an invasion. There are no other meanings [edit] (until they want there to be other meanings and then they will be used)[/edit].

Or, he's just a liar. He has talked about Ukraine being "dragged" into NATO, when that's a total impossibility, because it's the only way any of Russia's justifications for the war can even start to stand up to scrutiny. It's more nonsense, and it seems the only language they actually have in common with the rest of the world is that of violence. So that's how they have to be communicated with.

Edited June 19, 2022 by womble

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, womble said:

Words mean what they want them to mean.

He probably will say you can't invade your own country. All part of their ambit claim.