How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

19 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Russia will learn from all this.

We need to learn something too. Even if they lose a few millions of their citizens soldiers it won't stop them. Stalin's words are, it is just a statistic.

[Aragorn2002]

6 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

We need to learn something too. Even if they lose a few millions of their citizens soldiers it won't stop them. Stalin's words are, it is just a statistic.

I meant learning in a military sense. They won't learn anything else. They are beyond hope in that respect. 

[Calamine Waffles]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I think this argument's a bit pointless at this point, mate. We'll know the truth when the war is done.

Since this seems to be a specialty of yours, do you have any info on where these systems (regardless of origin) are active now?  I saw a video which I can't find now of one of the big SAM systems rolling fairly far forward into the Donetsk salient, which surprised me.

Doctrinally, S-300Ps (the ones on wheeled launchers) are usually deployed near important locations like military bases, cities, and infrastructure. Basically, it replaced things like the S-125 and S-75.

The tracked one you are probably referring to is the S-300V1, it usually protects troop concentrations and forces, and is on tracks for better cross country mobility for that reason. It replaced the 2K11 Krug, and is basically what the Patriot is to the US Army.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[dan/california]

 

4 hours ago, Huba said:

So on that, according to defence24.pl donors pledged 100 more 155mm guns. No more details, but that's a much nicer number than 18 M777s. Most of those should arrive in August. 

Also, Canada donated 10 replacement barrels for their guns. 

 

There needs to be a major operation in Poland to do depot level repairs on Ukrainian equipment. It isn't perfect to haul it back and forth like that, but the devil is driving, in case nobody noticed. Obviously the same operation should be training Ukr maintainers at the same time. 

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

Due to secrecy, it is always difficult to know. But we can see certain trends. 

Kremlin power struggle is better view as Power Clans struggle than personalities struggle. Personalities can change any moment; Clans are very stable. 

There are three main Clans: KGB clan, Party clan and Military Clan.

For example, in Death of Stalin you see KGB clan (Βeria) was fighting with Party clan (Khrushchev) but Party clan allied with Military clan (Zhukov) and won. 

Fast forward to the end of 90s. Due to Chechnia and Yugoslavia the Party clan (Yeltsin) politically got weak. They needed somebody young and strong. Due to some cunning maneuvers KGB clan managed to finally sneak a young and strong trojan horse (Putin) to Party clan and got power. As a result, KGB clan forcefully allied and further weakened Party clan (now with sort of Medvedev head). Then during Chechen war KGB clan allied with Chechen Joker (Kadirov) against Military clan. Finally, there is Russian Joker (Navalny) 

So, the current disposition is:

1.  Party clan (Medvedev) weak and mostly irrelevant. But tough guy rhetoric means he is looking toward alliance with hardcore nationalists. That is Military clan.
2. KGB clan (Putin) currently controls everything but politically very weak due to Putin starting the War. Unless they scheme something, they will be out one way or another.
3. Military clan (military junta). Real hardcore nationalist. Dumb, brutal, and angry that KGB clan made them fight real war as a result of which their reputation was flashed to toilet. 
4. Chechen Joker (Kadirov) - seemingly not very important Kadirov is in fact Putin most loyal ally against Military clan. Both Military and Kadirov hate each other due to atrocities during Chechen wars. Kadirov has his own small but well equipped and motivated military. But Kadirov hold loyalty only to Putin and has his own plans to achieve full Chechen independence.
5. Russian Joker (Navalny) - the guy seems to have unnatural ability to survive where all others died. Even current imprisonment can be seen as making sure he survives until he is needed. This implies he is under KGB protection but most likely not under Putin but somebody else because of Putin's ego issues.

My take is: 

1. Military and Party are allying. Medvedev is the Facade, Military junta is a real ruler. They are most likely close to power but probably cannot take out Putin.
2. Putin is scheming to shift blame to military and finally cleanse them. Severodonetks can be a good place to bury Miliary. The more Military lose men and reputation the easier will be to clean them. In case of disloyalty there is a loyal Tik Tok guard. That is why they are not really fighting. Not their job.
3. Somebody in KGB (Patrushev?) is waiting for Putin to die to activate Navalny so he can rise people against military like it was in august 91 then at least guaranty KGB clan survival.
4. Everything hinges on Putin. That's why there are few men following him around to pick up his poo, so nobody can be certain. 

That is as far as I can go. I can speculate further but it will not be very reliable. Because for example Military clan is brutal dumb nationalists. That scenario is bad. Like really bad. On other hand they seems to ally with useless Party clan. Which means they are hoping to deal with the outside world. So, at the end they might be not as dumb and brutal as they were in the past and are not going to start WW3.

Who knows. We will have to wait and see. 

Everything happening in Ukraine is part of the contest for "after Putin" now. It  is all about being able to blame the other faction for losing.

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Yes. Russia has been murdering and torturing Ukrainian civilians for more than a century. The Holodomor is one of the reasons why the Ukrainians rather die than surrender.

Patton was right. We should have rolled right thru Berlin and on to Moscow.

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Mayor Yevgeniy Kushenko, instructor-chief of the staff of training motor-rifle battalion of 467th guard training center, Western military district.

Died from wounds in hospital on 11th of June

https://vn.ru/news-mayor-instruktor-evgeniy-kushenko-iz-kochenevo-pogib-na-ukraine/

The instructor part is important. Russia is cannibalizing its training infrastructure to make it though June.

[Centurian52]

On 6/13/2022 at 2:21 PM, cesmonkey said:

I didn't read that NYT article the other day complaining about the lack of visibility into Ukraine's military operations by US intelligence. That's because I'm not a NYT subscriber.

However, the NYT does offer a free podcast and today they looked at that same issue.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/13/podcasts/the-daily/ukraine-war-intelligence.html

The reporter's argument is that Ukraine should provide more information to the US in order for the US to know whether the aid they are providing is being properly used - and what is truly needed. 

I'm not sure I agree.
 

I think we can be pretty confident that all of the aid we send is being used to kill Russian soldiers and break Russian equipment. How much more "properly used" do we want?

[Haiduk]

16 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

he tracked one you are probably referring to is the S-300V1, it usually protects troop concentrations and forces, and is on tracks for better cross country mobility for that reason.

S-300V1 in Ukraine use for infrastructure objects protection, because this is single AD asset, which can work on ballistic missiles more successfully than S-300PS/PT, though V1 is simplified V with limited parameters. Claimed that usual S-300 also theoretically capable to  intercept ballistic missiles within 35 km range, but anyway this is not easy

Edited June 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

Extremely accurate shooting by something with a relatively small warhead.

[Grigb]

45 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I understand what you are saying about mentality but it is still sounds a bit contradictionary.

If Russia is so dumb, worthless , corrupt, incompetent, that cant even contact and accomplish a war against a depleted Ukraine, and can be defeated by Poland, what is the fuss about a grande north atlantic alliance, which was primarly formed to defend against the mighty USSR. What's the point of Europe always needing to have a patron and why Europe can't decide for itself.

RU cannot defeat even Poland but it can kill a lot of polish civilians. You do not want war with RU because they will make it extremely ugly especially when losing. 

45 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

What's the point of Europe always needing to have a patron and why Europe can't decide for itself.

Haven't noticed Big Guy preventing Europe deciding on anything with NATO. I do remember a Nato general from almost European but not exactly European country prevented US hothead general from having excessively fun party with Russians in Yugoslavia. 

Can Europe handle RU? Yes. Should it? No. We are talking about human lives. What's the point shooting yourself in the foot just to show you can do everything yourself? US scares the **** out of RU. Let's use it and live a happy quiet life discussing how life is strange in the US!

45 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Its also economic reasons and a dependence on energy I guess. Germany went to war to secure those before, now they were forced to come closer with Russia. I can't blame them

I have heard a different version, but it is like RUMINT.

45 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Yes despite the flaws, it is a good place to be overall...And I sicerely wish you and Ukraine will get your chance there in the end.  

I already got it. That's why I already had an awkward conversation with family and as soon as one RU foot stands on NATO territory off I go. 

I saw it. I experienced it. I do not want it in Europe. 

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Reportedly UKR missile hit huge ammunition depot in Khrustal'nyi town (old name Krasnyi Luch), Luhansk oblast, under occupation since 2014. Locals wtite there was hit in Krasnyi Luch factory and heavy detonation stressed the town. Due to the range to frontline it could be Tochka-U. Tochka's launches became more rare - either we are already running out of stocks or personnel of 19th missile brigade is mastering HIMARS now

 

Wasn't the depot in Bryansk hit with a Tochka just a few days ago? And Nova Kakhovka allegedly too? I was under impression that UA started to fire those again recently, probably exactly cause replacement is on the way. Anyhow, it's great that deep strike is on the table now

 

I doubt anything comes out of it, but if indeed shooting starts with BL, in long term it spells fall of Lukashenka. That would be great for all CEE, but unfortunately paid for with UA blood again

 

He and Scholz would do best if they shut up about it, why show your cards prematurely? He's a crappy negotiator indeed. 

And boy, imagine how pissed he will be if US and UK are indeed training UA pilots, and just didn't feel like aligning this with France or Germany. 

[Haiduk]

Russians today conducted attempt either probe or breakthrough of small task force on UKR territory in Sumy oblast in area of Hlukhiv town - on the arc of border from Katerynivka to Bachivs'k villages. Most heavy fight took place near the border check point "Bachivs'k" - 32 km NE from Hlukhiv on E391 road. This is part of Moscow - Kyiv highway. Reportedly Russians attacked with two task force groups with support of 3-4 diversion groups and 4 UAVs. Situation was enough serious, so UKR forces opened fire with artillery on Russian territory. After several hours of intensive fight, Russians withdrew. Reportedly 2 UAVs shot down. Maybe tomorrow will be more details.

On the video - sounds of UKR artillery in Hlukhiv

 

 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Mayor Yevgeniy Kushenko, instructor-chief of the staff of training motor-rifle battalion of 467th guard training center, Western military district.

Died from wounds in hospital on 11th of June

https://vn.ru/news-mayor-instruktor-evgeniy-kushenko-iz-kochenevo-pogib-na-ukraine/

training center dude...  guess the new recruits just get handed a weapon and pointed west.  Well maybe handed a weapon.

[Centurian52]

On 6/13/2022 at 7:34 PM, Battlefront.com said:

Short (translated) article about the International Legion and it's members from 55 different countries:

https://interfax-com-ua.translate.goog/news/general/838795.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Hey, speaking of foreigners fighting in Ukraine... anybody heard a peep about Syrians and Libyans lately?  I've not seen anything.

Steve

I always feel a strong pang of guilt whenever I hear about or see videos of the International Legion for not rushing over to do my part for Ukraine. I have to keep reminding myself that my knees are no longer fit for war (if this war had broken out ten years ago I would already be over there).

[Centurian52]

On 6/14/2022 at 12:47 AM, G.I. Joe said:

It looks like this may well be the war where drones "come of age." Of course, in some ways that could be said of Vietnam, the 1982 Lebanon War, Desert Storm, Afghanistan and/or Iraq...we're coming up on the 78th anniversary of the first drone strike this September. Sometimes revolutions in warfare happen gradually at first and then the floodgates open. Just look at the trickle of submarine technology from the American War of Independence to World War I...

The first military use of balloons was over 100 years before their usage was fully matured in WW1.

[Haiduk]

Other video (the lower one) of ammunition storage explosion in Krasnyi Luch, filmed by local citizen close to the epicenter. Very laud detonation on 1:05 - if your dynamics on 100 % you can scare own family )

 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

The second strike was today on Nova Kakhovka, Kherson oblast. This time furniture factory was hit, where Russians establised vehicles repairing base.

Yesterday strike was conducted by Tochka-U, engine was found

And some results of yesterday strike...

Edited June 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Outskirts of Kherson form UKR drone

[Taranis]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Wasn't the depot in Bryansk hit with a Tochka just a few days ago? And Nova Kakhovka allegedly too? I was under impression that UA started to fire those again recently, probably exactly cause replacement is on the way. Anyhow, it's great that deep strike is on the table now

 

I doubt anything comes out of it, but if indeed shooting starts with BL, in long term it spells fall of Lukashenka. That would be great for all CEE, but unfortunately paid for with UA blood again

 

He and Scholz would do best if they shut up about it, why show your cards prematurely? He's a crappy negotiator indeed. 

And boy, imagine how pissed he will be if US and UK are indeed training UA pilots, and just didn't feel like aligning this with France or Germany. 

In France, we have legislative elections this weekend. It could be an operation for public opinion for the benefit of Macron. Anyway, his visit and the gift of new CAESAR is a very good thing. I agree with you that they should perhaps be a little more discreet, but on the other hand, all this reassures us and shows that our leaders still have the will to help Ukraine (personally that worried lately that help is slowing down)

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

AKD already posted a response that was spot on, but I wanted to reinforce what he said.  Russia has been murdering and torturing Ukrainian civilians consistently since 2014.  Which is why anybody who knew about this was absolutely not surprised by Bucha, Irpin, and all the other clearly documented atrocities committed by Russian forces.  It's just something they do, like breathing and eating.

Steve

Still, that was largely done under Separatists cover thus far.  And one of reasons why characters like Motorolla or Givi are not there with us anymore (for the good of whole humanity).

I had no illusions as what Russians will do to Ukrainians, but was surprised by scale, scope and how they rushed things, especially near Kyiv.

 

Hmm several other accounts also suffled this, it's RUS propaganda site but the number is curious.

https://en.topwar.ru/197846-v-genshtabe-vsu-zajavili-chto-vs-rf-zadejstvovali-na-ukraine-333-tysjachi-lichnogo-sostava.html

 

[Haiduk]

More longer video with Russian helicopter, shot down near Rivnopil. 

They flew by pair, first was atatcked by MANPAD missile, but missile hit flare. The second tried to avoid missile on extreme low flight, but couldn't

 

 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, Taranis said:

In France, we have legislative elections this weekend. It could be an operation for public opinion for the benefit of Macron. Anyway, his visit and the gift of new CAESAR is a very good thing. I agree with you that they should perhaps be a little more discreet, but on the other hand, all this reassures us and shows that our leaders still have the will to help Ukraine (personally that worried lately that help is slowing down)

I was just nibbling at this detail, overall  the symbolic value of this visit and all the declarations of support to UA are extremely laudable, nobody can doubt now that West speaks with a single voice. Old Europe is back

[Grigb]

Managed to watch Girkin/Kvatchkov video from Murz rant. I am putting my notes here. Sorry for dumping it like this and also for mistakes in translation. But I am tired listening them and taking notes. Unfortunatly I might not be able to do anything tomorrow or during the weekend. But I do not want to leave it till Monday. So, here it is. 

Disclaimer - take it with grain of salt. These guys are not like official 100% correct source. They might lie. They might be mistaken. I might got something wrong as well.

I also cut political takes and anything I saw as unimportant.

The most important - Ru offensive is already defeated they just kipping it going to fix UKR forces, keep initiative and for political show. UKR cannot penetrate deep and collapse RU defense due to RU aviation. RU aviation is only thing that keeps UKR from fast break outs (implying unlike defensive AA which is excellent, UKR mobile AA are not as good or they are lacking them or there is a problem). 

1. UKR morale is not as low as it might be seen from news with TD complaints. Cases of TD complaints are too few compared to the overall forces involved. Mostly because they were at the tipping spear of RU offensive and got hit hard by RU arty.

2. UKR TD is equipped much better than Mobiks(mobilized)  of LDNR forces.

3. At Kharkiv UKR collapsed Luhansk Mobiks pushed till the border but now regular RU forces very slowly are pushing UKR back.

4. UKR have really defeated formations (implying TD but maybe not) but too few of them and they will be rotated out of frontline and restored. Nothing out of the ordinary for big war.

5. Some RU divisions have up 60% of refuseniks, especially from Kavkaz.

6. Legal wise RU refusniks and even deserters are very difficult to prosecute without full war mobilization.

7. Girking confessed during 2014 he took part in some "War time" trials which resulted in executions. They executed their own troops who committed serious crimes, marauders, and enemy war criminals [whatever that means].

8. Fuming UKR are more competent in maintaining Army moral and dealing with deserters.

9. Claiming there is high chance that captured British nationals will get amnesty or will be exchanged.

10. They are believing foreign nationals are coming for safari to hunt Russians.

11. Currently UKR are mostly using French guns (implying for hitting Donetsk area) [probably due to a longer-range RU has difficulty dealing with].

12. All RU 152mm Msta guns are at main front (implying Severodonetsk). So they have difficulty dealing with long range UKR guns in Donetsk area.

13. Too few satellites for recon.

14. RU cannot provide air recon for CB due to lack of drones (implying Orlan). Looks like he is avoiding mentioning aircraft for some reason, may be because it shameful to admit that VVS failure as well.  

15. Mavic Drone cannot deal with arty for CB due to short range.

16. Donetsk, Makeivka, Gorlovka and other cannot be unprotected CB wise (implying lack long range arty and drones in the area).

17. RU forces cannot destroy UKR group in Donbas without major strategic reserves (implying currently there is none).

18. Reserves are being prepared. But it will not be enough. They can only balance out UKR existing forces. 

19. LDNR cannot provide an additional 20 regiments of light infantry (capable of guard duty behind lines). Not sure what he means about additional - either he means RU is building force of 20 regiments and LDNR cannot match that or LDNR in the past provided 20 regiments and cannot provide any more. Only compensate losses.

20. There is no more LDNR regular infantry. All Mobiks (mobilized)

21. LDNR civilians morale - dissatisfaction is rising but it is holding because everybody know UKR are going to kill them. [Good example how Russian pressure cooker holds internal pressure for a longer period then western country with bat**** crazy propaganda]

22. RU border regions are constantly attacked/shelled. Recon raids are becoming more common. Their morale is much lower. [RU regions less susceptible to RU propaganda]

23. LDNR will rebel but only after RU territory rebel first.

24. RU pilots report that flying lower than 2 km is a death sentence. Especially during the second run. That's why they have difficulty in using certain bombs like Vacuum bombs.

25. Any RU aircraft is too valuable as only aviation can deal with UKR mechanized attacks in certain areas. UKR attack on Dayd Brode (Herson) was stopped with heavy losses by RU aviation.

26. So, RU cannot bomb freely - too much of tactical AA which is sometimes superior to RU.

27. UKR fortifications (implying east region) are too numerous and deep. They have sometimes three level trenches (I do not know what it is)

28. Only in few areas there is smell of RU Aviation (including Helicopters)

29. No UKR aviation (As I understood UKR aviation is not hitting RU frontline at least at east region)

30. Heavy losses in Davidov Brody due to UKR forces getting out of AA umbrella. It was very dangerous break out.

 

 

[Beleg85]

Info from Rheznikov himself, seems pretty legit.

[Calamine Waffles]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

S-300V1 in Ukraine use for infrastructure objects protection, because this is single AD asset, which can work on ballistic missiles more successfully than S-300PS/PT, though V1 is simplified V with limited parameters. Claimed that usual S-300 also theoretically capable to  intercept ballistic missiles within 35 km range, but anyway this is not easy

They sent at least one to Lysychansk recently, so they probably also use it to protect military HQ as well? And yeah, they have very valuable ABM capability and Ukraine does not have many of them.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Haiduk]

Digest of "Aerorozvidka" UAV unit R18 drone-bombers in action. Looks like this "deadly snowflakes" are more effective, than Bayraktars

 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[Suleyman]

That heli got hit hard, the other one seemed to be a more skilled pilot avoiding the launch. In a war like this you're gonna lose CAS craft for sure, good notes to take. I just don't understand why send those choppers there if they know there's a heavy manpad presence. Helis in this type of conflict need to be in and out, engage a point and dip out. Ukrainians with few helicopters left do tactics like that. I've seen a video where a UKR MI-24 pulls up over a tree line engages his target and falls back. It seems those helis were just free roaming (hunting) without worrying too much.