How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

BTW, who'd be interested in a GoFundMe to get @Haiduka new laptop?

Not kidding.

I don't think there's anyone who's contributed more to our understanding of the war.

PM me to confirm interest.

Edited June 10, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

@Haiduk you need to empty your messages

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Than stop mentioning it.

"In reality Berlin is supplying large amounts of weapons; not as much as the US, but comparable to other European countries. Experts say Germany ranks somewhere in the middle." according to the BBC. It's a safe bet Germany will have paid  the most and Poland will have profited the most of all European countries when the dust has settled.

I think the pressure upon Germany by Poland (as usual) and Ukraine is more political/financial than something else and aimed at weakening the German positon within EU/NATO for future use. Preparing those Leopards and Marders will take months and months. And will take away much needed production and maintenance capacity that the Bundeswehr badly needs itself now. The Bundeswehr is in full swing at the moment and not a day too soon.

Apart from that the German economy can't manage without the Russian energy yet. Hard fact of life. And if the German economy goes down, the whole of Europe goes with it.

https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/organisation/heer/aktuelles/einsatzverband-besteht-feuertaufe-fuer-litauen-5443686

 

Sorry but I hardly get what your point is here. 

Replying to @Calamine Waffles I said specifically that

1) Marders and Leo1s not getting directly to Ukraine is caused by lack of political will

2) Germans are "Scholzing around" meaning not being transparent about it, stalling and producing smokescreen stories

The fact if DE is % doing slightly more, slightly less or just perfectly average of what others are is completely beside the point, in fact it is just another excuse. Facts are that:

- those weapons are relatively easily available and were since the beginning of the war

- UA explicitly requested them many times 

- Germany refused, producing a number of different excuses ( bad technical shape, we need them for ourselves, too difficult to learn, better do swaps with other countries, "what would people say" if German tanks fought Russians again, NATO is against it as nobody yet provided tanks/ IFVs). All of those have fallen apart as time passed. I'm to lazy to look for links but every of those points is easily backed up by evidence if you care to look.

If Scholz and his crew stated openly that they won't cause they are afraid Putin will cut off their gas that would be at least understandable, but that would require honesty. Instead we have Scholzing around, a communication dumpster fire.

Deploying troops to the Baltics is of course laudable, but the same is being done by other allied nations, it hardly has anything to do with anything. 

Isn't it a bit telling that in case of MLRS, deliveries were pledged by US, UK and DE initially, yet somehow only US and UKs are on the way, with German being (again) to be delivered in some undisclosed future? IRIS-T got just delayed till end of the year. PzH2000 still to get there "soon". No ammo for Gepards. etc.etc.  Even if it isn't deliberate, it surely looks like it for external observers.

Edited June 10, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Then we can look forward to some more great posts by Murz in the near future.  Murz, Girkin, etc. already see how worn out the attack is and that no more help is available.  These guys know enough to understand what that means given the rising capabilities of the Ukrainians and how the war has gone so far.  It's still uncertain what will happen in the next few weeks, but a sudden Russian victory is not something they think is possible.

I parsed his blog again and found something interesting. He got an unofficial reply from RU MOD regarding his rants.

Young MO officers read Murz and shake hands for courage.

They read in private chats.
Only now they are preparing for Minsk-3

We won't pull, they say
If everything is how it is now, we won't pull

So, basically unofficially Russian officers more or less believe they cannot win but they plan to stay in the fight long enough for a new peace deal akin to Misnk-2. That's their end game.

 

[Butschi]

17 minutes ago, Huba said:

1) Marders and Leo1s not getting directly to Ukraine is caused by lack of political will
 

The lack of political will appears to be shared by most other NATO members, though. The fine line, currently, seems to be "no western MBTs or IFVs". Leo 1s are roughly the equivalent of US M60s. No M60s in Ukraine, altough there are probably still a few around (er, experts: are there?). No Chieftains, no AMX30s. No Warriors or Bradleys. I doubt Ukraine didn't ask for any of those. Does drawing this line make sense? I don't know. But for once it looks like a somewhat consistent and coordinated strategy of the NATO members.

Re stalling and delaying and generally abysmal communication, I fully agree but that is a different issue. I'm not even certain it is all Scholz' fault or that of our defense secretary. The Bundeswehr is really in a desolate state, not only regarding equipment and readyness. It isn't like the Bundeswehr doesn't get a lot of money. I think > 40 billion $ / year over the last decade. That's less than the 2% GDP but still a lot. With that it isn't even possible to have regular body armor for everyone going abroad, a swimming area for the (elite) divers or even decent radios. My opinion: To achieve that level of epic failure you have to have a fine mix of incompetence and corruption (even if it is only the 'legal' kind) in procurement, planning and political leadership. Just to make the point: I'm not fully convinced it is active stalling on Scholz' side, possibly the Bundeswehr really just isn't able to deliver on short timescales. Even more reason to have good communication then, though.

[panzermartin]

7 hours ago, Machor said:

reminder that when Turkey joined NATO along with Greece in February 1952, it had free-and-fair elections with a two party system

But what are the feelings towards NATO nowadays in Turkey. From the rhetoric of Erdogan and his ministers towards Greece, (for the first time it feels like we are really on the brink of war sadly ), to the bipolar stance in the Ukraine war, the S400, and the invasions of Syria., it looks like Turkey doesn't feel to belong there and has a different future vision, that of an independent regional superpower. 

 

[Grigb]

7 minutes ago, Butschi said:

No Chieftains...No Warriors ... I doubt Ukraine didn't ask for any of those.

There are no Chieftains around. There are Warriors around but without special armor package they lose their main advantage. Weapons wise Warriors (unlike Marders) are incompatible with Ukrainian aka Russian aka Soviet IFV doctrine. It will be PR disaster for British Army because Ukrainians will extensively bad mouth them.

   

[Ts4EVER]

18 minutes ago, Butschi said:

The lack of political will appears to be shared by most other NATO members, though. The fine line, currently, seems to be "no western MBTs or IFVs". Leo 1s are roughly the equivalent of US M60s. No M60s in Ukraine, altough there are probably still a few around (er, experts: are there?). No Chieftains, no AMX30s. No Warriors or Bradleys. I doubt Ukraine didn't ask for any of those. Does drawing this line make sense? I don't know. But for once it looks like a somewhat consistent and coordinated strategy of the NATO members.

Re stalling and delaying and generally abysmal communication, I fully agree but that is a different issue. I'm not even certain it is all Scholz' fault or that of our defense secretary. The Bundeswehr is really in a desolate state, not only regarding equipment and readyness. It isn't like the Bundeswehr doesn't get a lot of money. I think > 40 billion $ / year over the last decade. That's less than the 2% GDP but still a lot. With that it isn't even possible to have regular body armor for everyone going abroad, a swimming area for the (elite) divers or even decent radios. My opinion: To achieve that level of epic failure you have to have a fine mix of incompetence and corruption (even if it is only the 'legal' kind) in procurement, planning and political leadership. Just to make the point: I'm not fully convinced it is active stalling on Scholz' side, possibly the Bundeswehr really just isn't able to deliver on short timescales. Even more reason to have good communication then, though.

This is true. I am pretty sure the German army might be as ineffective, if not more so, as the Russian one. The corruption runs deep and is probably happening in a more sophisticated way than in Russia, but there is still a lot of it.

[Aragorn2002]

25 minutes ago, Butschi said:

The lack of political will appears to be shared by most other NATO members, though. The fine line, currently, seems to be "no western MBTs or IFVs". Leo 1s are roughly the equivalent of US M60s. No M60s in Ukraine, altough there are probably still a few around (er, experts: are there?). No Chieftains, no AMX30s. No Warriors or Bradleys. I doubt Ukraine didn't ask for any of those. Does drawing this line make sense? I don't know. But for once it looks like a somewhat consistent and coordinated strategy of the NATO members.

Re stalling and delaying and generally abysmal communication, I fully agree but that is a different issue. I'm not even certain it is all Scholz' fault or that of our defense secretary. The Bundeswehr is really in a desolate state, not only regarding equipment and readyness. It isn't like the Bundeswehr doesn't get a lot of money. I think > 40 billion $ / year over the last decade. That's less than the 2% GDP but still a lot. With that it isn't even possible to have regular body armor for everyone going abroad, a swimming area for the (elite) divers or even decent radios. My opinion: To achieve that level of epic failure you have to have a fine mix of incompetence and corruption (even if it is only the 'legal' kind) in procurement, planning and political leadership. Just to make the point: I'm not fully convinced it is active stalling on Scholz' side, possibly the Bundeswehr really just isn't able to deliver on short timescales. Even more reason to have good communication then, though.

Agreed, but for the Germans this is a balance act of the highest order. Germany is keeping a low profile and has little to offer at the moment. Personally I feel that the German, dutch and other politicians that have landed us in this shameful situation have to be held politically accountable. Scholz isn't necessarily one of the main culprits. Strangely enough the starving of the defence forces in Germany, Netherlands etc was especially caused by centre and right wing coalitions. 

This should be investigated and lessons should be learned from it.

 

[poesel]

3 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

The corruption runs deep and is probably happening in a more sophisticated way than in Russia, but there is still a lot of it.

It is not corruption -  its incompetence and an over boarding bureaucracy (even by German standards, "Falle, klapp für Kleintier, grau" - who remembers that gem? (*)) created by years of mismanagement.

We got a new government last fall. The position of minister of defence was so low status that no one wanted it. This is a 3-party coalition and there was of course some shuffling for positions but that one went to our former minister of law who actually wanted to resign after her term. Can you imagine that in your country nobody wants to be the head of the national forces?

The purpose of the Bundeswehr was to defend Western Germany in the cold war. After that there was no perceived use for that thing. That is 30 years of neglection. The Bundeswehr is not the Wehrmacht.

 

(*) that is Bundeswehr speech for mouse trap
 

[FancyCat]

Via Phillip O'Brien, the Ministry of Defense has issued a update regarding foreign assistance to Ukraine.
Lots of interesting tidbits, but I'll highlight this:

Quote

I had many discussions with foreign colleagues to launch early training for teams with different types of weapons that do not yet have political decisions regarding their supply. Training with some of those weapons began in March. More than 1,500 of our servicemen are currently undergoing training or will begin their training shortly.

 

Edited June 10, 2022 by FancyCat

[Aragorn2002]

12 minutes ago, poesel said:

It is not corruption -  its incompetence and an over boarding bureaucracy (even by German standards, "Falle, klapp für Kleintier, grau" - who remembers that gem? (*)) created by years of mismanagement.

We got a new government last fall. The position of minister of defence was so low status that no one wanted it. This is a 3-party coalition and there was of course some shuffling for positions but that one went to our former minister of law who actually wanted to resign after her term. Can you imagine that in your country nobody wants to be the head of the national forces?

The purpose of the Bundeswehr was to defend Western Germany in the cold war. After that there was no perceived use for that thing. That is 30 years of neglection. The Bundeswehr is not the Wehrmacht.

 

(*) that is Bundeswehr speech for mouse trap
 

That.

[panzermartin]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

So what is your alternative?  Every country for itself?  

In an ideal world countries wouldn't need defensive pacts or militaries to feel safe. I know many people here are on the payroll of militaries and wouldn't agree. I'm just an art guy though so I can speak disconnected from this reality. Certainly this war has been a huge setback on the road to a peaceful future and our options are not that many anymore. 

If I really had to chose an alternative I would vote for a EU military pact . It makes sense that countries that share a common economy policy and currency to have a unified military and strategy. NATO is too widespread and we have troubles. How Turkey for instance is considered a key member while acting rogue and getting away with it. Or EU distancing itself from the more aggressive strategy of US (that is acting from safe waters ) in Ukraine due to energy necessities etc. 

In any case we are preparing here for a "hot" summer. Erdogan has even discovered Turkish minorities in Kos and Rhodes (he means the tourists I guess? ) and we are not sensing much support from our allies despite giving everything to NATO, having numerous US bases, investing a lot of money in western hardware despite our fragile economy...The moment of truth might come soon and then we will certainly have a verdict if NATO has been a joke we couldn't get all these past years. 

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Via Phillip O'Brien, the Ministry of Defense has issued a update regarding foreign assistance to Ukraine.
Lots of interesting tidbits, but I'll highlight this:

 

I linked it yesterday, they also talk about artillery ammo and how successfull switch to 155mm is. This tidbit though I'd really like to interpret as training of the future Air Force... 

[Butschi]

23 minutes ago, poesel said:

It is not corruption -  its incompetence and an over boarding bureaucracy

Oh, I missed bureaucracy! I kind of included it with incompetence, I think. I still think there is corruption, too, though. Not necessarily the direct kind but what I called the legal kind. Especially procurement appears to not be guided by what is the best from a "how to get the most capability for my bucks" point of view but by what is best for the company that produces the equipment. Even that is not necessarily bad, I can be of strategic interest to have a domestic arms industry. But this can go too far, like, remember when with Volker Kauder basically Hekler & Koch was sitting in the Bundestag in a very powerful position.

EDIT: For me, that is a kind of corruption, not in the direct sense, that a politician directly gets money for himself in exchange for whatever service he/she may be providing but of the indirect kind, where a politician gets a nice job afterwards or there is a generous donation to the party or the company invests more money in the electoral district of that politician. Similar things may happen on the lower levels of bureaucracy.

Edited June 10, 2022 by Butschi

[Holien]

37 minutes ago, Grigb said:

It will be PR disaster for British Army because Ukrainians will extensively bad mouth them.

This could be why no tanks or AFV from any country as the images of them burning on Russian TV will be too much.

Sure a Gun is OK as it doesn't give a real clue to the general public as to who supplied it. 

 

[Aragorn2002]

48 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

In an ideal world countries wouldn't need defensive pacts or militaries to feel safe. I know many people here are on the payroll of militaries and wouldn't agree. I'm just an art guy though so I can speak disconnected from this reality. Certainly this war has been a huge setback on the road to a peaceful future and our options are not that many anymore. 

If I really had to chose an alternative I would vote for a EU military pact . It makes sense that countries that share a common economy policy and currency to have a unified military and strategy. NATO is too widespread and we have troubles. How Turkey for instance is considered a key member while acting rogue and getting away with it. Or EU distancing itself from the more aggressive strategy of US (that is acting from safe waters ) in Ukraine due to energy necessities etc. 

In any case we are preparing here for a "hot" summer. Erdogan has even discovered Turkish minorities in Kos and Rhodes (he means the tourists I guess? ) and we are not sensing much support from our allies despite giving everything to NATO, having numerous US bases, investing a lot of money in western hardware despite our fragile economy...The moment of truth might come soon and then we will certainly have a verdict if NATO has been a joke we couldn't get all these past years. 

I don't get this kind of talk. NATO is functioning and on a high level. It closed ranks within days against Putin, did and still does send massive arms shipments to Ukraine, is sending forces to the Eastern borders etc. etc.

Erdogan's version of Turkey doesn't belong in NATO. But perhaps other times will come. At the moment he's bit by bit destroying the Turkish economy and sooner or later that will undo him. Every Turkish aggression against Greek territory will have dire consequences for Erdogan and result in ending Turkey's membership of NATO. 

If NATO would be a joke, Putin would have invaded the Baltics, not Ukraine.

A EU military pact is an illusion. It will never come off the ground. Europe is too divided, too short sighted to do anything effective without the US.

Edited June 10, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, Holien said:

This could be why no tanks or AFV from any country as the images of them burning on Russian TV will be too much.

Sure a Gun is OK as it doesn't give a real clue to the general public as to who supplied it. 

 

Yet it didn't stop US or NL from providing very distinctive M113s - we already saw one captured by RU few days ago. We also saw Norwegian M109 hit by MLRS and burning (or was it just the nearby ammo, a very spectacular video nonetheless). I don't believe that this argument holds water.

[Aragorn2002]

47 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

This is true. I am pretty sure the German army might be as ineffective, if not more so, as the Russian one. The corruption runs deep and is probably happening in a more sophisticated way than in Russia, but there is still a lot of it.

The Germans will catch up quickly. The introduction of  the new Puma IFV's (several hundreds are already delivered), the A7 version of the Leopard tank and the introduction of the Panzergrenadier system will transform the Bundeswehr in one of the most effective armies in the world. The Bundeswehr is in the middle of massive reorganisations, that will take years to get fully implemented, but the Germans are awake now.

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

The lack of political will appears to be shared by most other NATO members, though. The fine line, currently, seems to be "no western MBTs or IFVs". Leo 1s are roughly the equivalent of US M60s. No M60s in Ukraine, altough there are probably still a few around (er, experts: are there?). No Chieftains, no AMX30s. No Warriors or Bradleys. I doubt Ukraine didn't ask for any of those. Does drawing this line make sense? I don't know. But for once it looks like a somewhat consistent and coordinated strategy of the NATO members.

Re stalling and delaying and generally abysmal communication, I fully agree but that is a different issue. I'm not even certain it is all Scholz' fault or that of our defense secretary. The Bundeswehr is really in a desolate state, not only regarding equipment and readyness. It isn't like the Bundeswehr doesn't get a lot of money. I think > 40 billion $ / year over the last decade. That's less than the 2% GDP but still a lot. With that it isn't even possible to have regular body armor for everyone going abroad, a swimming area for the (elite) divers or even decent radios. My opinion: To achieve that level of epic failure you have to have a fine mix of incompetence and corruption (even if it is only the 'legal' kind) in procurement, planning and political leadership. Just to make the point: I'm not fully convinced it is active stalling on Scholz' side, possibly the Bundeswehr really just isn't able to deliver on short timescales. Even more reason to have good communication then, though.

In 2002 the Bundeswehr practically gave away 128 Leopard 2s to Poland. Another 120 were bought by the Poles in 2013. Hundreds and hundreds of other Leopard 2s were sold, lent or donated to other NATO countries. There's indeed not much left to send. The Netherlands made the same idiotic mistake. Hence my statement that the politicians behind such decisions should politically be held responsible.

Edited June 10, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Grigb]

4 minutes ago, Holien said:

This could be why no tanks or AFV from any country as the images of them burning on Russian TV will be too much.

No, burning hulks on Russian TV is a minor problem. 

4 minutes ago, Holien said:

Sure a Gun is OK as it doesn't give a real clue to the general public as to who supplied it. 

Warrior armed with clip fed unstabilized  RARDEN. According to the Russian IFV doctrine (Ukrainians do not know any other yet) it is utter ****e. It is like WW1 technologies. It is like arming soldiers with Mosins.

UKR soldiers will start bad mouth them as soon as they get inside. UKR press will amplify these talks and UKR opposition will use them to punish Zelensky. Then UK press will pick them up and amplify them in UK and UK opposition use them to punish BoJo. We will have complete ****e storms in two countries for several weeks.

So, please no Warriors for Ukraine.

[Huba]

Just now, Aragorn2002 said:

In 2002 the Bundeswehr practically gave away 128 Leopard 2s to Poland. Another 120 were bought by the Poles in 2013.

In early 2000's Bundeswehr was selling those Leos to anybody who showed any interest, peace dividend was in full swing. Shame we didn't get more then, but it was a time when everybody was gearing for peacekeeping operations in Afghanistan/ Iraq. Those were not given away though, just sold cheaply. No more costs of storing them, and possibly juicy upgrade contracts in the future - it was a friendly exchange for sure, but not a selfless one on the German side.

 

[panzermartin]

32 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I don't get this kind of talk. NATO is functioning and on a high level. It closed ranks within days against Putin, did and still does send massive arms shipments to Ukraine, is sending forces to the Eastern borders etc. etc.

Erdogan's version of Turkey doesn't belong in NATO. But perhaps other times will come. At the moment he's bit by bit destroying the Turkish economy and sooner or later that will undo him. Every Turkish aggression against Greek territory will have dire consequences for Erdogan and result in ending Turkey's membership of NATO. 

If NATO would be a joke, Putin would have invaded the Baltics, not Ukraine.

https://www.turkishdefencenews.com/largest-military-exercise-of-the-turkish-army-in-years-efes-2022/

Infront of NATO officials in the biggest exercise of invading a "random island" with participation of most NATO members, Erdogan spoke about how seriously he is about the status quo of the aegean islands and how "they will come suddenly one night". 

Yes a joke. 

Edited June 10, 2022 by panzermartin

[FancyCat]

Mind you Erdogan is facing a election and he's completely ****ed the economy, this is probably a nationalistic ploy to win votes. While he's veered towards authoritarianism, turkey is still a democracy and he is on the chopping block.

 

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I don't get this kind of talk. NATO is functioning and on a high level. It closed ranks within days against Putin, did and still does send massive arms shipments to Ukraine, is sending forces to the Eastern borders etc. etc.

Erdogan's version of Turkey doesn't belong in NATO. But perhaps other times will come. At the moment he's bit by bit destroying the Turkish economy and sooner or later that will undo him. Every Turkish aggression against Greek territory will have dire consequences for Erdogan and result in ending Turkey's membership of NATO. 

If NATO would be a joke, Putin would have invaded the Baltics, not Ukraine.

A EU military pact is an illusion. It will never come off the ground. Europe is too divided, too short sighted to do anything effective without the US.

And you don't exactly see EU countries reinforcing Baltic borders much. Only one country does that and it's the one overseas.

Not to mention that most European countries refuse to do that "2% minimum of GDP" thing (actually only UK and Poland do it). And it's possible that certain countries would rather happily trade with the enemy as it steals territory from their allies.

Hence why any military alliance without US and UK in it isn't worse a damn.

Edited June 10, 2022 by kraze