How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, chrisl said:

So if they don't have enough vehicles, how do they get everybody to the front lines?  Train to the nearest railhead and then march them in?  Right after UA got a bunch of new longer range, very accurate artillery and appears to have gotten some VT fuzes with it?

The distances aren't vast, so getting units to the border and marching them to the front is quite viable in many spots.  For the south they could move by rail to some areas and then by foot, but in all areas there's the ability to pool vehicles and do strategic moves.  Guderian did this in the late summer of 1941 when he needed to move a lot of footbound units very quickly over a long distance.  He grabbed all the vehicles from the mobile units and temporarily tasked them being a shuttle service.  When complete the trucks returned to their original units.

Steve

[FancyCat]

Russian logistics ain't great....so let's assume Russia can stack the bodies on the front lines, can they handle the additional personnel incurring more strain on the supply chain? Replacement ammo, vehicles, food, medicine, fuel....

Their supply lines are shorter but I'm not sure their logistics can handle it if they are giving soldiers old near useless equipment. I can't believe there aren't semi-modern stuff laying around. It's impossible. What the hell happened to the Soviet supply dumps?

[Ts4EVER]

1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

What the hell happened to the Soviet supply dumps?

Ebay

[LongLeftFlank]

36 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Love it! I hope there's a speaker system to play Oi u Luzi Chervona Kalyna...

(Actually, the last five pages have given me enough of a Ken Burns flashback to have Battle Cry of Freedom stuck in my head, but that works pretty well too...)

I've been searching for a good Russian language cover to this classic (reheard from a talented busker in a Manila park yesterday, one day before the Philippine election) as a fitting theme song for 9 May 2022....

(LLF's thesis:  most darkly depressing songs sound better in Russian)

I found a rather good one here (over the original LimpBizkit video), but the below seems vastly more emblematic of the deeply heartfelt lameness of the entire Russian enterprise.

Complete with nearly a minute of rambling introduction. Like a slow motion train wreck, you just can't look away....

OK, enough marginally OT posts from me for a bit....

Edited May 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Russian logistics ain't great....so let's assume Russia can stack the bodies on the front lines, can they handle the additional personnel incurring more strain on the supply chain? Replacement ammo, vehicles, food, medicine, fuel....

I doubt very much that they can.  I think they'll prioritize getting the bodies in place and worry about the rest later.  That's been something we've seen done quite a bit already with them moving units into places and then trying to figure out how to supply them.

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Their supply lines are shorter but I'm not sure their logistics can handle it if they are giving soldiers old near useless equipment. I can't believe there aren't semi-modern stuff laying around. It's impossible. What the hell happened to the Soviet supply dumps?

Spent down already.  There was evidence of them using Soviet era munitions pretty early in the war, which indicates that Russia has been "living off of" the Soviet era munitions in order to minimize how much new ammo they had to purchase.

Also keep in mind that Russia sells a lot of munitions to foreign countries.  It is probable a lot of that stuff has been Soviet era as it is higher profit than making new stuff to send.  Since so many of Russia's clients are poor nations, I'm sure they would opt for cheaper and older stuff if offered.  Then there's the Russian corruption and graft angle to consider.

Steve

[Suleyman]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

They've already done that and it didn't work.  Now there's nothing remaining of practical value to draw from without ending the unit's previous mission in that particular area as they are already weakened.

Steve

You’re not wrong but in my opinion they still have units that can pull through to create more offense. They haven’t used a lot of their potential in terms of airpower and artillery coordination which is weird to me. Even the Smerch systems would be an extreme threat in counter-battery roles or even just targeting logistics, or armor.
 

Unless artillery is overrated a lot of the Russian offense doesn’t make sense. Manpower is extremely important in warfare a big lesson. NATO has a big unrivaled advantage in this area

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

You’re not wrong but in my opinion they still have units that can pull through to create more offense. They haven’t used a lot of their potential in terms of airpower and artillery coordination which is weird to me. Even the Smerch systems would be an extreme threat in counter-battery roles or even just targeting logistics, or armor.
 

Unless artillery is overrated a lot of the Russian offense doesn’t make sense. Manpower is extremely important in warfare a big lesson. NATO has a big unrivaled advantage in this area

They need warm bodies manning the front.  They went in with too few, they scraped together what little they could, and now they've run out of options.  Without enough men to keep the lines solid they'll not be able to hold ground.

Steve

[FancyCat]

15 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

 

Turns out their cooperation between artillery, airpower and everything else ain't great. What we are seeing now is, unless someone can correct me, is the extent of their ability to coordinate, something that won't be fixed anytime soon or even long term.

[dan/california]

30 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The distances aren't vast, so getting units to the border and marching them to the front is quite viable in many spots.  For the south they could move by rail to some areas and then by foot, but in all areas there's the ability to pool vehicles and do strategic moves.  Guderian did this in the late summer of 1941 when he needed to move a lot of footbound units very quickly over a long distance.  He grabbed all the vehicles from the mobile units and temporarily tasked them being a shuttle service.  When complete the trucks returned to their original units.

Steve

I am getting this vision of the Russians getting every truck they still own together in one  big unmissable target for for a GMLRS strike that eliminates several thousand conscripts, and literally ALL the transport the Russians have left.

 

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

something that won't be fixed anytime soon or even long term.

In my opinion they are a generation behind. That is, it is geared for a conscript army who have a lack of education. 

[dan/california]

Guderian wasn't dealing with satellite surveillance, and enough active ISR to fry every egg in the Donbas. 

Edited May 9, 2022 by dan/california
dropped a word

[LongLeftFlank]

15 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

New commentary by Soldatov on the infighting within Russia....

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-war-setbacks-strategy-generals-putin/31839737.html

And this new reality for them, as they see it, is that Russia still has a peacetime army while [they] face [a] completely mobilized Ukrainian Army that is now being supplied by the West with the best weapons on the planet.

So, as we all knew here, there is no 'second echelon' standing by, or even gearing up. What they're fighting with now is all there is.

The problem here is that [there isn’t] a tradition in the Russian military or the Russian security services to [acknowledge] and [learn from] the mistakes they’ve made

The fact is that this war is different from Putin's previous wars [in Georgia, Syria, and eastern Ukraine] because now we have Telegram channels. [On those], you have pro-military public opinion where you have lots of soldiers, lots of officers, [and] lots of veterans all talking -- not very openly -- but still expressing criticism toward the military.

It might be about very small things. For instance, there was a big frustration about radio sets for helicopters recently. [They were asking in these channels] why they don’t have them and whether they need to collect some money, [which] led to a crowd-sourcing campaign [back in Russia.] In response, the Defense Ministry said that they don’t need them [and] that sparked some bitterness among soldiers and veterans alike for seeing the leadership as out of touch with their needs and unable to listen.. 

 

Further to the conundrum of how to combine an authoritarian state with modern social media and a population which loves to grumble, here is a RFERL piece (it's the West's own prop megaphone, of course, so season to taste):

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-putin-victory-day-mobilization/31837557.html
"We have seen that trotting out public-sector workers for demonstrations in support of him has been rather difficult," she said. "People are ready to write social-media comments. They are ready to give silent assent. They are ready for anything that leaves them in peace so that they can go about their business. This is the consensus of an authoritarian society."

"Now Putin is trying to transform it into a totalitarian society -- to mobilize it," she concluded.

The Kremlin narrative is that this is "a war with the entire world: 'The whole world is against us, and we are fighting for some abstract justice, for our past, and so on,'" she said....

"People understand that something is wrong, and successes aren't coming," he added. "That means the guilty ones must be found. And who is to blame? Fifth- columnists, paid Western propagandists, national traitors. As Vladimir Putin's position worsens, the role played in our public life by the search for enemies grows larger." 

 

 

Edited May 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[FancyCat]

Reminder about the Russian artillery…they gotta hit the Ukrainians to be useful. Their massed artillery ain’t worth **** if they can’t kill Ukrainian artillery. 

 

[Fenris]

I think this is live (says so) - 3 x T-14s on screen at the head of the column at the moment

 

[Canada Guy]

The Russians/Soviets have the capacity to learn but it always falters in the implementation.

The problem here is that [there isn’t] a tradition in the Russian military or the Russian security services to [acknowledge] and [learn from] the mistakes they’ve made

The Soviet Frunze Academy had some very good analysis of Soviet operations. They seemed to really dig into what worked and what didn't.  Definitely academic level objective analysis. What you don't see and in a kleptocracy you can't see is implemention of recommendations as people steal/sell kit needed to improve. So as has been reported, people sell IR gear, only 10% of stored gear is operational etc. 

And with so many conscripts coming (possibly), UKR forces could get thier captured troops all back and all their kidnapped people (perhaps the reason they were kidnapped in the 1st place)

Edited May 9, 2022 by Canada Guy

[Offshoot]

7 minutes ago, Fenris said:

I think this is live (says so) - 3 x T-14s on screen at the head of the column at the moment

 

Just make sure to turn off the chat to spare your sanity.

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I've been searching for a good Russian language cover to this classic (reheard from a talented busker in a Manila park yesterday, one day before the Philippine election) as a fitting theme song for 9 May 2022....

(LLF's thesis:  most darkly depressing songs sound better in Russian)

I found a rather good one here (over the original LimpBizkit video), but the below seems vastly more emblematic of the deeply heartfelt lameness of the entire Russian enterprise.

Complete with nearly a minute of rambling introduction. Like a slow motion train wreck, you just can't look away....

OK, enough marginally OT posts from me for a bit....

Hah...no argument from here on that thesis, I've thought that the Rolling Stones' Paint It Black would sound perfect in Russian since my early to mid teens...

[FancyCat]

10 twitter posts on May 9th, Russian discourse around it and how it shapes their perception, posting vital parts, tho look at them all!

 

 

[dan/california]

 

[LongLeftFlank]

16 minutes ago, Canada Guy said:

The Russians/Soviets have the capacity to learn but it always falters in the implementation.

The problem here is that [there isn’t] a tradition in the Russian military or the Russian security services to [acknowledge] and [learn from] the mistakes they’ve made

The Soviet Frunze Academy had some very good analysis of Soviet operations. They seemed to really dig into what worked and what didn't.  Definitely academic level objective analysis. What you don't see and in a kleptocracy you can't see is implemention of recommendations as people steal/sell kit needed to improve. So as has been reported, people sell IR gear, only 10% of stored gear is operational etc. 

And with so many conscripts coming (possibly), UKR forces could get thier captured troops all back and all their kidnapped people (perhaps the reason they were kidnapped in the 1st place)

Yes, and there's no doubt of the Russian intellectual-analytical tradition. In uni, I remember reading the Voenno-Istoricheskii Zhurnal papers (in translation), with all the detailed eyestrain inducing maps, with "the circles an' the arrers' an' a paragraph on the back of each one" dissecting all the key 'Liberation' operations of 1942 - 1945.

But each monograph was also prefaced with the obligatory paternoster: "The fascist attack on the USSR in 1941 was an act of perfidy".  Plus an approving reference to "the primary importance of Party political work among the troops prior to and during the operations."

So, as I have learned in my working life since then, it's a lot like doing business with the French (and believe me, I know): the theoretical underpinning and the analytical reasoning are first rate, but only the very top guy can actually make a decision, and you'd literally rather lose a war than interrupt his holiday....

Or, per the punchline for one of my favourite Dilbert cartoons....

 

Edited May 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Canada Guy]

LongLF, yes always with the 'perfidy'. The Zhurnal papers were good (also through translation) and you always had to pay lip service to your ideology.

The paper on the Afghan war was very well done and if actually followed through, could have made a difference. Tactically the Soviets were better by 1983-4, still sucked operationally, but internal politics got in the way and Brezhnev being on his deathbed ground everything to a halt.

Mensa is one of those groups that if they allowed me as a member, I wouldn't want to join. 

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The distances aren't vast, so getting units to the border and marching them to the front is quite viable in many spots.  For the south they could move by rail to some areas and then by foot, but in all areas there's the ability to pool vehicles and do strategic moves.  Guderian did this in the late summer of 1941 when he needed to move a lot of footbound units very quickly over a long distance.  He grabbed all the vehicles from the mobile units and temporarily tasked them being a shuttle service.  When complete the trucks returned to their original units.

Steve

The distances are quite reasonable, but the eye in the sky is going to be watching you every inch of the way.  

If I'm UA, I'm going to take advantage of Russia's poor transportation, clear channel comms, and need to keep all the conscripts bunched up for orders, combined with satellite intel, and do my best to keep new/refreshed units from getting anywhere near the front lines.  A BTG worth of men marching up a road is just asking for a line of airbursts to obliterate a bunch of them and scatter the rest.  Do that a few times and Russia will start having a hard time getting anybody to do anything besides desert at the first opportunity.

[MikeyD]

Russian inability to adapt seems tied directly to their government's systemic disregard for human life. Early on I (half) joked that Russian strategy was basically to throw bodies at the Ukrainians until the enemy runs out of bullets and artillery shells, then they'd win by default. When it became clear the Ukrainians weren't going to run out of bullets and artillery shells the Russians were stymied. Preserving the lives of their men was, in their eyes, counterproductive. They were artillery and bullet sponges and nothing more.

[chuckdyke]

11 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

Russian inability to adapt seems tied directly to their government's systemic disregard for human life.

The mindset of a chess player. Doesn't matter how many chessmen you sacrifice if you checkmate the king. Right now, Russians kill more Ukrainians than Ukrainians kill Russians. Never mind they are civilians is their attitude. The best achievement of the Ukraine is the removal of Russian general officiers. 

[Huba]

Here's a stream of the event. Russian officials channels are banned in EU and I didn't find anything better - probably only auto-generated subtitles will be available. They are still gearing up but all will start in a moment.

 

Edited May 9, 2022 by Huba