How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[asurob]

21 minutes ago, DMS said:

This time NATO will want to partition Russia, to take away nuclear weapons e.t.c. It is obvious to everyone. Better to have cold war with West, than be stuck in never ending civil war. War hawks in all involved countries must retire before something like that is possible. 

 

No just no.  The only thing the west wants is for Russia to quit attacking it's neighbors.  Had Russia not invaded Ukraine none of what you mentioned would be an issue.  This is Russia's fault...not Ukraine's not NATO's and certainly nobody in the west.  You want to live in peace...perhaps put some pressure on your leadership to stop having delusions of grand empires...those days are over.  (For reference look at the UK...they are an empire no more.)

[FancyCat]

I wouldn't be so harsh on DMS, what he's listening to and what we are listening to are vastly different. Russian state media has been painting a narrative of Russia being surrounded by NATO and co who want to partition and destroy it for a long time, and that has been a part of Russian thinking since during the USSR. 

Again, DMS, the reason why Russia will never be invaded, or partitioned, or destroyed is cause Russia has nuclear weapons, and there isn't anything to stop a nuclear war from destroying both sides when started, and Russia has made clear that actions that threaten the existence of it as a state constitutes a valid reasoning to initiate nuclear war. 

Unless you can explain how NATO and Ukraine are going to denuclearize or partition Russia without having Putin launch the nukes, please stop asserting that Russia is fighting to preserve its existence as a state, as again, if Ukraine or NATO invade Russia, Russia can start the process of Mutual Assured Destruction. 

Edited May 5, 2022 by FancyCat

[panzermartin]

I think we could give a break to DMS living on the other side of the hill . Why should an average Russian trust the West when the last time the "most advanced European nation" crossed their western borders they were sent to concentration camps, died in gas chambers, and executed en mass as untermenschen. They were actually treated like orcs back then too, ridiculed for their standard of living, their tech, their ways of fighting etc. When they reached the priviliedged germans in their hometowns they were enraged by what they saw, the wealth and the comforts they couldn't even imagine. Why on earth would these people that had everything came to their motherland to loot and kill peasants. I firmly believe the current situation is partly linked to the WW2 aftermath. They also spent the "happy" post war years with nuclear weapons pointed at them behind an iron curtain with their adversary already having used them on population twice. 

They have a very different narrative of the World and it will take ages to overcome. 

[Ultradave]

4 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Nope. That will not happen. Not by NATO's hand anyway. Russia may do it to itself, but NATO will not. Ever. NATO has never had that goal, and does not have the military capability to do it even if they wanted to. Never had. 

Dave

I can't remember what book it was in now, but something about the Cold War the Able Archer exercise where the world came close to becoming ash. Caspar Weinberger and other defense officials under Reagan were astounded to learn that the Soviets were extremely apprehensive of the NATO war-games, which simulated a heightened nuclear alert as well. The Soviets were 99% positive that Able Archer was the prelude to an invasion of the Warsaw Pact by NATO. Soviet reasoning was that it was EXACTLY what the USSR would do and then roll right into West Germany from the exercises. 

The US officials were dumbfounded to find this out, because they could not understand how the USSR would believe that. The reason: NATO would NEVER attack the Soviet Union, and they didn't understand how they could think that NATO would. They had NO idea of the Soviet mentality about this.

Blinders.

NATO practiced DEFENDING Western Europe from Soviet invasion. We never practiced an invasion of the Warsaw Pact, only local defensive counterattacks.

NATO will not attack Russia. It seem @DMS is under the same mis-apprehension that the Soviets were 34 years ago.

Dave

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, DMS said:

Then he will be overthrown and you will get more radical leader. Raising pressure only scares people and sticks them to authorities. West doesn't give a "golden bridge" to retreat. 
People in Russia don't think that we are losing. (I am also not sure what is going on) And if they will, they won't necessarily want to capitulate. 

Well to be frank, your dilemma between "radicals" is because the Russian public did nothing as all opposition that was otherwise was suppressed and eventually choked out.  There was a time when public action could have preserved your ability to chose, but as you say, that time has passed.  This means you are at more difficult choices but anything right now is better than nothing.

As to the "golden bridge to retreat", hey man, that is on you guys and it can be filed under "Things to Consider Before Invading Another Nation for Zero Reasons".  I did not see Russia moving to lend a hand with our extraction from Afghanistan either.  This is big-boy pants time, you break it you buy it and clean up your own messes. 

I have no doubt the Russian people don't know what we know...that is because the same jerks that pulled you into this mess control your media - which in hindsight was another bad idea and we in the west should take note.

As to how Russia is losing, we have literally written pages on this.  Russia is losing this war by just about every metric I can think of to be honest - Tactically thru Strategic.  The biggest proof of this is that gong show up at Kyiv, one does not burn 20-30% of ones ready field force in a "feint", then recruit every three-legged one eyed dog and merc you can find (seriously, Ethiopians?!), stuff them together with broken units in three weeks and send them out for another doomed offensive in the Donbas.  These are not the signs of "minor setbacks". 

My bet is the Russian political level is going to move the strategic goalposts again.  I suspect they will declare victory and liberation, followed by "free and fair elections" because the Crimea playbook.  And then dig in and cry crocodile tears as the UA with western help attacks them, justifying whatever crazy comes next.  This is assuming that the whole Russian Army doesn't simply collapse under its own weight in a couple weeks.  Then there will be a very loud popping sound when those sanctions finally break the Russian economy.

 

Edited May 5, 2022 by The_Capt

[Huba]

To lighten the mood a bit (not for DMS I'm afraid), Zelensky gave a hint about the expected future of Ukrainia Air Force:

 

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Suleyman]

Unfortunately the Ukrainians lose in this footage, I'm glad they were taken as prisoners and not killed I'm sure they would rather have fight to the last guy but sometimes there's no way to. Probably a decent professional Russian unit, which it seems so since they used the right tactics for this engagement. I don't think many of the Ukrainian soldiers got hit, they got surrounded and surrendered, which we can't blame them. POW trade, they'll live to fight another day.

It goes to show that Russia has capable troops, it's the leadership roles that have low IQ for war fighting. Where as Ukraine has capable troops, and good leadership. Very fast reaction times on average for Ukrainian units, and I think that's their main advantage against the Russians. Don't let this footage make you lose motivation though, it's war things like this happen you can't win every battle. I pray those guys get home safe from captivity.

Edited May 5, 2022 by Suleyman

[Suleyman]

T-80BVM! I didn't know they used those tanks. Ukrainians in Kharkov aint playing around bro

[akd]

21 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

Unfortunately the Ukrainians lose in this footage, I'm glad they were taken as prisoners and not killed I'm sure they would rather have fight to the last guy but sometimes there's no way to. Probably a decent professional Russian unit, which it seems so since they used the right tactics for this engagement. I don't think many of the Ukrainian soldiers got hit, they got surrounded and surrendered, which we can't blame them. POW trade, they'll live to fight another day.

It goes to show that Russia has capable troops, it's the leadership roles that have low IQ for war fighting. Where as Ukraine has capable troops, and good leadership. Very fast reaction times on average for Ukrainian units, and I think that's their main advantage against the Russians. Don't let this footage make you lose motivation though, it's war things like this happen you can't win every battle. I pray those guys get home safe from captivity.

Not Russian military.  Private contractors. (Wagner / Liga)

[Suleyman]

@akdthe uniform didn't look like regular Russian infantry I assumed they were Spetsnaz. As far as your knowledge goes, which units perform best from the Russian side? infantry wise

[akd]

24 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

T-80BVM! I didn't know they used those tanks. Ukrainians in Kharkov aint playing around bro

Don’t know about the one burning seen from behind, but the one on the right is definitely a Russian T-80BV.  Looks like it has both “V” and “Z” identification markings.  The other one might be a T-80BV also.

Edited May 5, 2022 by akd

[Harmon Rabb]

 

Ukrainians bringing swords back.

Also notice what looks like some sort of piece of wood on that captured Russian BMP.

[dan/california]

29 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

Caesar in action?

That was my question, Caesar? Or maybe the Czech truck mounted 152/155 that was discussed much earlier. Photo quality is not the best.

[Phantom Captain]

32 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

 

Ukrainians bringing swords back.

Also notice what looks like some sort of piece of wood on that captured Russian BMP.

You'll see the logs on the backs of tanks too.  They use them to put under tracks for getting stuck vehicles out.

I wonder if he really carries that sword or if it was something looted inside the BMP?  Seems a bit impractical and cumbersome.  Still, I like it!  In the spirit of LoTR, I name this one, Orc Slayer.

 

 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Phantom Captain

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

That was my question, Caesar? Or maybe the Czech truck mounted 152/155 that was discussed much earlier. Photo quality is not the best.

Definitely CAESAR, Dana/ Zuzana is a differently looking beast altogether, much more resembling tracked SPGs, with rotating turret etc.

There's nothing indicating that CAESAR's are already in Ukraine though, might be a random training video. But if they are there, Ukraine suddenly aquired super nimble 40km+ ranged arty unit, that could acutally make an impact around Izyum, given the distances involved there. 

Zuzana just for comparison:

[Harmon Rabb]

11 minutes ago, Phantom Captain said:

You'll see the logs on the backs of tanks too.  They use them to put under tracks for getting stuck vehicles out.

 

Did not know that, cheers.

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Reserve Maj. Valery Farshatov, volunteer for LNR

 

 

[Phantom Captain]

6 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Did not know that, cheers.

Log grog?  

[Huba]

Last time I posted a rumor like this, it turned out to be true, so here goes:

 

[Harmon Rabb]

Not believing anything until I see some evidence but big news if true.

@Haiduk Any of our Ukrainian members heard anything about this from a reliable source or is this another case of Anton Gerashchenko or someone else making up stories?

[OldSarge]

CNN is reporting that US intelligence provided confirming intelligence to the Ukrainian forces that the ship they were tracking was the Moskva.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/05/politics/us-intelligence-russian-moskva-warship-ukraine-target/index.html

[akd]

16 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Not believing anything until I see some evidence but big news if true.

@Haiduk Any of our Ukrainian members heard anything about this from a reliable source or is this another case of Anton Gerashchenko or someone else making up stories?

One of the two Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates in the Black Sea (the third is in the Med) was in Sevastopol, at least during daylight hours on May 5:

 

[Kinophile]

TBC....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_frigate_Admiral_Makarov

Built 2017, indo-russian contract. So very new, if not as advanced as a regular European vessel, but definitely a modern warship. Moskva had bigger weapons but not much else. Kill off the other Grigorivich frigate in the Black sea (3rd is stuck in the Med) and the BSF will be down to 1980s vintage.

Displacement

Standard: 3,620 tons Full: 4,035 tons

By comparison, the Moskva :

 

Displacement

9,380 tons standard 11,490 tons full load[3]

 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Kinophile

[theFrizz]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

I wouldn't be so harsh on DMS, what he's listening to and what we are listening to are vastly different. Russian state media has been painting a narrative of Russia being surrounded by NATO and co who want to partition and destroy it for a long time, and that has been a part of Russian thinking since during the USSR. 

 

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

I think we could give a break to DMS living on the other side of the hill . 

 

As a younger man I might have agreed, but I've seen too much crap over the last decade or so to keep giving the Russians a free pass for their vacations. 

 

EDIT: Would love to add here that I'm not advocating for anything more than calling out people on their BS, whether they knowingly parrot the Kremlin or not.  

Edited May 6, 2022 by theFrizz