How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[womble]

16 minutes ago, DMS said:

Thank you for listening and replying. The gap between two realities is huge. What is highly probable for you is doubtful for me (and nearly impossible for most of Russian citizens), and vice versa. Probably we should wait few years, so facts would be fully clear.

To The_Capt: I didn't advocate anything, I got emotional a little, seeing someone believes that "phone call intercepts". I realise that no one will change opinion. And regime change in Russia won't change anything, I can't imagine what amount of violence you will need to "derushificate" us, like Ukrainians use to say. You won't succeed, there are several million sized agglomerations in Russia, Raqqa is small town in comparance. May be new iron curtain and cold war with defined rules can save us. Bad, but better, than big war (bigger war).

And I should believe in this also.

During WW2 some Soviet propagandist published article about Germans, draining blood from locals. It was published, but soon it was prohibited to quote it. Ukrainians also should prohibit to quote something. 

The gap between perceptions is huge. One of them is much, much closer to perceiving the true nature of reality than the other. The facts are clear right now. While the Internet provides opportunity for lies, it also provides plenty of opportunity for corroboration, and the atrocities perpetrated are pretty close to 100% forensically established fact. The full extent of the war crimes and atrocities will probably take a few years to come out, but the fact that there are a lot, that they have mostly been committed by Russian forces and that they're as bad as any excesses of the SS is six-sigma clear right now.

Perhaps you can shed some light on the process of mental gymnastics that can reflexively deny the facts on the ground, in the context of the official (it's on the telly, so it's straight out of the Kremlin) propaganda that's spewing forth like acid bile. How is it inconceivable that Russian troops would commit atrocities when the mouthpieces of your leaders virulently encourage such treatment of your Ukrainian "brothers"?

Also, your immediate assumption that "derussification" might involve some sort of invasion and violence shows a massive, gigantic blind spot: the West has, since WW2 never wanted, nor believed it was feasible, to militarily invade and commit violence against the USSR or the RF. You've been told about this mythical threat for so long by the manipulative excrement you've had for leadership that you might even believe it. The correlation of forces has never supported the possibility (not for Napoleon, nor Hitler, nor NATO; some might argue that it might have been possible for the Western Allies for a brief moment, right at the very end of WW2, but the operation name for that endeavour is pretty much bang on...), and the most cursory inspection of military realities should allow you to reach that conclusion yourself.

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Here such photo. Allegedly M777 already in action and among other ammunition use also M549A1. 

Ah, the RAP round.  Ok, books say it has a 30km range, so about 19 mi.  Of course all this counterbattery discussion between M777 etc will be out of date once HIMARs get fully into the game...those are enemy artillery killers, and just about anything else one wants to point them at.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Ive read several articles, quoting or directly interviewing NATO military advisors/interlocutors and at least one UKR officer where they describe a logistics chain that has sone strong points and performances, but has not (yet) professionalized to the degree that an operational victory will require (as defined by their NATO p.o.v).

Examples given were brigade level demands being filled in disregard of divisional directives (eg priority to this unit, not that one), fuel being sent to a commander known personally by the logistics officer rather than to the formally requesting unit. Stuff like that - personalized and civilian minded approaches rather professional soldier obedience to the plan.

To be clear, I think part of this is reflective of the sudden surge of reservists/civvies into the logistics process. I expect things to be brought in hand eventually, but Im curious if its happening quickly enough.

Are UKR logistics able to support a real, theater winning offensive? Or, alternatively can they support all these local offensives with enough momentum for long enough to become a de-facto operational level victory?

I can say only troops have two logistic support - official of MoD/General Staff (weapon, ammunition, fuel, militaryu equipments, gears etc) and volunteer funds, which have own direct channels of supplying the troops (pick-ups, jeeps, spare parts, thermals, drones, gear, electric generators. PDA for artillery and recons, special soft etc). Without latter our army would be in very difficult situation. 

For example, olny one day of Back-and-Alive fund activity:

Equipment for 140th marіnes recon battalion: 20 drones and spare parts for its, 2 generators, 2 notebooks, 20 PDAs, 40 radios, 1 printer. 

Artillery unit of 54th mech.brigade: meteostation, 3 PDAs+fire control soft, 5 radios, 20 accumulators.

SOF Command: 200 helmets. 

SBU unit: 2 drones  (2000 $ each)

5th BTG of 81st airmobile brigade: 5 drones (1400 $ each), 27 PDAs+fire control soft

3rd SOF regiment: 4 drones (8200$ each)

Bought 52 pick-ups Nissan Navarra, arrival is expecting.   

Edited May 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I can say only troops have two logistic support - official of MoD/General Staff (weapon, ammunition, fuel, militaryu equipments, gears etc) and volunteer funds, which have own direct channels of supplying the troops (pick-ups, jeeps, spare parts, thermals, drones, gear, electric generators. PDA for artillery and recons, special soft etc). Without latter our army would be in very difficult situation. 

For example, olny one day of Back-and-Alive fund activity:

Equipment for 140th marіnes recon battalion: 20 drones and spare parts for its, 2 generators, 2 notebooks, 20 PDAs, 40 radios, 1 printer. 

Artillery unit of 54th mech.brigade: meteostation, 3 PDAs+fire control soft, 5 radios, 20 accumulators.

SOF Command: 200 helmets. 

SBU unit: 2 drones  (2000 $ each)

5th BTG of 81st airmobile brigade: 5 drones (1400 $ each), 27 PDAs+fire control soft

3rd SOF regiment: 4 drones (8200$ each)

Bought 52 pick-ups Nissan Navarra, arrival is expecting.   

Wow, crowd sourced logistics as well.  Well crisis often drives war forward and I think Ukraine is re-writing more than a few manuals right now.

[Kinophile]

Thank you, this is probably more what they mean - that civilian, volunteer support is critical, when the defense establishment should really be able to do and provide all that gear itself, organically.

It seems the structural, institutional and political issues from 2014-16, as regards logistics have somewhat improve. But some ways of doing things (just to "get it done"), driven by avoiding army bureaucracy,  inefficiency and corruption*, have become embedded in the UAs way of war. 

In some ways, whatever, right? The front is supplied and the UA is still fighting.

But the fact that informal, civilian lead supply is currently better than relying on the army material supply doesn't mean that informal, civilian supply is better in a National War of Survival. Its just the best option right now, for now.

For Ukraine to truly beat Russia, the Army Materials Command (or whatever its called) needs to be treated as a strategic priority, its commander must be a front line vet, it must be crush corruption and resist political enrichment schemes, drive home a mission of national survival throughout the organization and it must formally incorporate over those informal, civilian supply networks. Crucially - it must improve on them.

Until it can do that the networks will exist, UKR's logistics will not be able to deliver at the level and speed needed and eventually true victory will slip from the UAs grasp.

 

*including criminalization of the networks. The civilian aspect means theres a lot of opportunities for graft, theft, replacement with crappier options etc, transporting drugs, etc. 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Wow, crowd sourced logistics as well.  Well crisis often drives war forward and I think Ukraine is re-writing more than a few manuals right now.

There is a joke that Back-and-Alive fund will substitute Logistic Comamnd soon. They have crystal reputation, so many people, especially IT sector from all world is donating them many money in crypto. This is huge funds. But we have as minimum two similar funds with some less turnovers. And hundreds of small volunteer team, which supply own familiars and units, where they serve with difefrent minor things, small parties or single items of optic, drones etc. Or often soldiers and units request via social media that they need some of equipment or goods and this resolve via direct donations, because big funds engaged only in large party of equipment and continuosly have big queue, so they can't waste time to buy one sight for some platoon.   

Edited May 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[Machor]

1 hour ago, AlsatianFelix said:

Is this diagram of artillery ranges correct?

 

Days ago I posted a video of Russian 2A36s headed for the front, and with rocket-assisted ammo those outrange the M777.

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Frankly, I'm curious how sustained, at a large scale, this Ukrainian "counteroffensive" can be. Their operational logistics process still seems very ad hoc and often driven by local demands, rather than operational plans determined by clear strategic principles and objectives. Failure to professionalise their materials supply chain will undermine and retard any theater level offensives, giving them to short lived gains then stalemate, then another short attack grinding into yet another stalemate. 

This will doom any national victory as it will give RUS strategic breathing room. 

All these Spanky New Fisher Price Nato toys are nice, but if UKR logistics are not up to snuff and dont drastically improve very rapidly then RuA will get the stalling of the war's momentum that it so desperately needs.

Russia is on the operational offensive but on the strategic back foot. Now the strategic imperative and pressure is on UKR to keep unbalancing Russia.

But half assed UKR logistics will only give half-victories.

@Haiduk or @akd can you shed some light on the UKR logistics state, process and capabilities?

...

Ref this new UKR offensive itself, I suspect it will be series of reinforced localised offensives, shoving and pushing at battalion level, seeking the weaker (low morale) units and breaking them in the hopes of a domino morale collapse.

In comparison the RUS offensive needed to physically destroy UKR formations, as their morale is rock solid, a much harder task. They needed to blow up/kill/capture a lot of UKR gear and troops, very quickly, to have any chance of success.

They failed (indeed a plodding, arty-driven pace was the deliberately chosen tactical approach). In the process Dvornikov hollowed out his larger formations as he attempted to maintain a sharp edge against a highly mobile, tactically flexible and determined resistance. 

I don't have any deep insight into the Ukr logistics system, but I am quite sure the Ukr General Staff does. So if they are launching counter attacks round Kharkiv, and into the shoulder of the Izyum salient they believe they can supply those efforts. Given that they ARE counterattacking in the Donbass, as opposed to say trying desperately to establish a defensive line somewhere just east of Lviv, I think we have to assume they know what they are doing.

[Haiduk]

Mariupol.

Three days ago Russian troops launched next decisive assault of Azovstal. With support of aviation, naval and ground artillery they managed to breakthrough on Azovstal territory and held taken positions. Despite Arestovich told Azov repelled all attacks, today Azov commander said this is not true, Russians slowly grasp the circle, so all who fight there very angry on this stupid peacock. Sitauation is critical. Ukr fighters have a lack of ammunition, but worse of all, lack of food and medicine. Probably almost all reserves of medical stuff was destroyed when Russians hit a part of underground hospital.  Looks like Putin need a victory for 9th of May and particiapation of hundreds of Ukrainian POWs in parade in Mariupol. 

Azovstal now

Captain Sviatoslav Palamar, Deputy Commander of the Azov Regiment: “We call on the world community to evacuate civilians and I personally appeal to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief to take care of wounded soldiers who are dying in agony from improper treatment.

Civil paramedic, Crimean Tatarian, muslim, which now with Azov appealed to Erdogan to evacuation of civilians and wounded soldiers (English subs)

 

 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

28 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Or often soldiers and units request via social media that they need some of equipment or goods and this resolve via direct donations, because big funds engaged only in large party of equipment and continuosly have big queue, so they can't waste time to buy one sight for some platoon.

That is simply brilliant.

 

[Aragorn2002]

16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Mariupol.

Three days ago Russian troops launched next decisive assault of Azovstal. With support of aviation, naval and ground artillery they managed to breakthrough on Azovstal territory and held taken positions. Despite Arestovich told Azov repelled all attacks, today Azov commander said this is not true, Russians slowly grasp the circle, so all who fight there very angry on this stupid peacock. Sitauation is critical. Ukr fighters have a lack of ammunition, but worse of all, lack of food and medicine. Probably almost all reserves of medical stuff was destroyed when Russians hit a part of underground hospital.  Looks like Putin need a victory for 9th of May and particiapation of hundreds of Ukrainian POWs in parade in Mariupol. 

Azovstal now

Captain Sviatoslav Palamar, Deputy Commander of the Azov Regiment: “We call on the world community to evacuate civilians and I personally appeal to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief to take care of wounded soldiers who are dying in agony from improper treatment.

Civil paramedic, Crimean Tatarian, muslim, which now with Azov appealed to Erdogan to evacuation of civilians and wounded soldiers (English subs)

 

 

Intolerable that nothing can be done for these fine soldiers. 

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, womble said:

The gap between perceptions is huge. One of them is much, much closer to perceiving the true nature of reality than the other. The facts are clear right now. While the Internet provides opportunity for lies, it also provides plenty of opportunity for corroboration, and the atrocities perpetrated are pretty close to 100% forensically established fact. The full extent of the war crimes and atrocities will probably take a few years to come out, but the fact that there are a lot, that they have mostly been committed by Russian forces and that they're as bad as any excesses of the SS is six-sigma clear right now.

Perhaps you can shed some light on the process of mental gymnastics that can reflexively deny the facts on the ground, in the context of the official (it's on the telly, so it's straight out of the Kremlin) propaganda that's spewing forth like acid bile. How is it inconceivable that Russian troops would commit atrocities when the mouthpieces of your leaders virulently encourage such treatment of your Ukrainian "brothers"?

Also, your immediate assumption that "derussification" might involve some sort of invasion and violence shows a massive, gigantic blind spot: the West has, since WW2 never wanted, nor believed it was feasible, to militarily invade and commit violence against the USSR or the RF. You've been told about this mythical threat for so long by the manipulative excrement you've had for leadership that you might even believe it. The correlation of forces has never supported the possibility (not for Napoleon, nor Hitler, nor NATO; some might argue that it might have been possible for the Western Allies for a brief moment, right at the very end of WW2, but the operation name for that endeavour is pretty much bang on...), and the most cursory inspection of military realities should allow you to reach that conclusion yourself.

The reality for Russians is going to be different than the reality for someone in the West. Just off the top of my head, you have to deal with:

1. NATO vs Russia was never a contest. 

2. Ukraine vs Russia was never a cakewalk.

3. Ukrainians are not accepting of Russian rule. 

Couple with a very long paranoia of invasion that comes from pre-Soviet history till now, and its a very difficult worldview to break out of cause its very comprehensive. 

Let's just get the most dangerous and obvious one out of the way, "derussification", there is no attempt to wipe out Russian culture, or the Russian people. If you see the calls to do so, they stem as a emotional response to the Russian attempt to wipe out Ukraine, and Ukrainian culture. But derussification has no basis in reality, nuclear weapons ensure external actors cannot overthrow or destroy Russia. MAD, mutual assured destruction. The same principle underlying MAD, ensures Finland, the Baltics, Poland, or Ukraine can not become launching points for the invasion of Russia, cause again, MAD. 

As for Ukrainians expressing their contempt for Russia and their society, I have no idea what DMS thinks of the repeated assertions by Russian state media, and the Russian government to crush Ukrainian culture. I'm not sure if he agrees that it isn't real, or that it is anti-Russia in its entirety and therefore needs to be destroyed to ensure Russian security, or whether its just bombastic rhetoric. 

You have to deal with the emerging reality that Russia isn't as strong as it figured itself to be, that Ukraine isn't as weak, nor Ukrainians as accepting of Russian brotherly embrace as Russians have been led to believe. 

2 hours ago, DMS said:

And I should believe in this also.

During WW2 some Soviet propagandist published article about Germans, draining blood from locals. It was published, but soon it was prohibited to quote it. Ukrainians also should prohibit to quote something. 

Now, I'm not sure what DMS means by this, is he saying that yes, its real, yes, the government of Russia admits it, but Ukraine should hide the information to ensure the population isn't angered and out for blood? Or just that Russia is lying about this, but...is lying to strike terror into Ukrainians? And since its a lie, Ukraine should censor it and not spread the lie around? 

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Intolerable that nothing can be done for these fine soldiers. 

Turkey can conduct extraction and further internment. I think he has levers on Russia, but... Erdogan wants to seat on two seats. 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

I know they know what theyre doing, Im not even former mil. I would posit that they are attacking because they are going in limited "bites", that the logistics can sustain, and because there is a strategic imperative. 

But it doesn't mean though that informal civilian networks are, in the long run, not open to abuse, corruption, infiltration by russian agents, etc. Absolutely, current UKR military logistics suffer the same dangers/weaknesses, but if the UKR is serious about NATOising then it absolutely must professionalize and "fix" the logistics from Port->Trench. 

 

[billbindc]

 

Caesar in action?

[Haiduk]

UKR planes still fly - pair of Su-25 and Su-24M with fighter escort

 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[DMS]

Just now, sburke said:

violence won't do it, sorry but you guys are gonna have to do this yourselves if you hope for Russia to rejoin the family of nations as anything other thana a pariah state.

This time NATO will want to partition Russia, to take away nuclear weapons e.t.c. It is obvious to everyone. Better to have cold war with West, than be stuck in never ending civil war. War hawks in all involved countries must retire before something like that is possible. 

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Fully withdraw, beg for forgiveness, extradite war criminals (and seriously, those actions were not just really immoral, it was really, really dumb), and maybe in a few years after you negotiate oil and gas sales to pay for this mess, we can start thinking about normalization.  I get that this may very well break your nation, but you are in a hole right now that only gets deeper as this thing drags on, seriously the path you guys are on is worse. 

No one will accept it. Including Western side. Both sides are not ready for negotiations just now, each side expects to win. Each side wants capitulation of opposing side. If Putin (or any person instead of him) signs capitulation now, he becomes a traitor. Then he will be overthrown and you will get more radical leader. Raising pressure only scares people and sticks them to authorities. West doesn't give a "golden bridge" to retreat. 
People in Russia don't think that we are losing. (I am also not sure what is going on) And if they will, they won't necessarily want to capitulate. 

So, there is no way out.

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I know they know what theyre doing, Im not even former mil. I would posit that they are attacking because they are going in limited "bites", that the logistics can sustain, and because there is a strategic imperative. 

But it doesn't mean though that informal civilian networks are, in the long run, not open to abuse, corruption, infiltration by russian agents, etc. Absolutely, current UKR military logistics suffer the same dangers/weaknesses, but if the UKR is serious about NATOising then it absolutely must professionalize and "fix" the logistics from Port->Trench. 

 

And UKR high command may simply be hoarding resources for big counterstrikes elsewhere.  It could be prioritization.

They have a relatively stable situation all along their fronts.  They are able to trade small bits of territory for big Russian losses and resource expenditures, though this is hell for the UKR troops involved.  Meanwhile they can build up resources, reserves, armor, AA, etc for elsewhere.

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Turkey can conduct extraction and further internment. I think he has levers on Russia, but... Erdogan wants to seat on two seats. 

The time will come that he has no seat left. Another problem that has to be dealt with. 

[asurob]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Step one for poor DMS and his country's future: kill Putin, lay all the blame on him, pull out of Ukraine, at least to Feb22 borders, make eternal peace treaty w all neighbors.  Then actually have real elections in a year or so.  That would be the necessary start to stop being an endlessly violent aggrieved 'victim' who seems to need to lash out all the time.  It's a lot better to be a nice family in the neighborhood, not the crazy psycho w the conspiracy signs in the yard and an arsenal in the basement.

Step two:  Change your political system.  Putin stumbled his way into president for life despite the fact that Russia was briefly (as I recall very briefly) on the path to being a democracy after the Soviet Union fell.  30 Years later we have the mini-me Soviet Union despite all the good intentions.  The Russian people must never let that happen again and only they can.

[danfrodo]

too harsh and pointless, deleted

Edited May 5, 2022 by danfrodo
deleted

[Ultradave]

11 minutes ago, DMS said:

This time NATO will want to partition Russia, to take away nuclear weapons e.t.c. It is obvious to everyone.

Nope. That will not happen. Not by NATO's hand anyway. Russia may do it to itself, but NATO will not. Ever. NATO has never had that goal, and does not have the military capability to do it even if they wanted to. Never had. 

Dave

[Kinophile]

16 minutes ago, DMS said:

This time NATO will want to partition Russia, to take away nuclear weapons e.t.c. It is obvious to everyone. 

What on earth....

Capitulation is not required or stated.

Just leave and stop raping Ukrainian children and murdering their parents.

Pretty simple.

Edited May 5, 2022 by Kinophile

[FancyCat]

If Russia wants to seek out normalization with the West, overthrowing Putin would do it, not necessarily handing him over. But realistically, its doubtful at this time that Putin will be overthrown, you need a lot more conditions for that to occur. More likely, the most probable result is Ukraine retakes all territory, including Donbas and Crimea, and either Russia comes to the table to settle that reality, or Ukraine and Russia simply spar at the borders, but Ukraine will probably never invade in force. 

Ideas like partitioning Russia, disarmament of nuclear weapons are just fantasy ideas, and not entertained seriously by anyone in government in the West or Ukraine. I would suggest anyone talking seriously here should explain how this is possible, yes Russia can't win a war against Ukraine, but certainly crushing internal revolts and dissent is well within the wheelhouse. 

Kamil Galeev has a winding thread on mobilization, some things to take away, LNR and DPR are already at full-scale mobilization, to act as cannon fodder, (literally crap equipment), but his last idea, that if mobilization is declared, will be localized to the nearby regions of the border with Ukraine, will avoid revolt, I seriously contest that is better than mobilizing regions closer to Moscow.

Why? Imagine if conscripts are sent to fight, break and flee, and try and return home to their regions just over the border? It would be way more achievable than the current Russian forces largely taken from poorer, minority areas further away from Ukraine. Would also produce tons of discontent when they don't come back home, or disappear and their bodies aren't returned. 

 

 

 

 

[billbindc]

13 minutes ago, DMS said:

This time NATO will want to partition Russia, to take away nuclear weapons e.t.c. It is obvious to everyone.

NATO doesn't want to "partition Russia, to take away nuclear weapons". It doesn't have the power to do that and, unlike some, it tends to do things with its military that it is actually capable of doing. What NATO wants is for political disagreements between states to be settled without resort to force. Russia clearly prefers force to accommodation with its neighbors. That's why we are where we are today.